Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 7. (Read 12690 times)

The Lakers seemed hopeless once LeBron and AD went down. But things are looking up for this team. The role players on this squad have stepped up in a big way. They had one of their most impressive wins of the season last time out as they blew out Brooklyn on the road. They scored 126 in that win. Their offense has been coming together, and there is reason for optimism as they have a timetable now for the return of their two stars. After a big string of unders, they have gone over in three straight games. We think this total is too low tonight. The Knicks have the No. 1 defense in the NBA. They, however, played a very hard-fought, back-and-forth game on Sunday against the Raptors. Just not sure if they are going to have the energy to play shut down defense tonight. The Knicks are also trending to the over with three of their last five going over the posted number. The over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. We think this will be a close game, like the oddsmakers, and we expect both teams to get their points here. And overtime is always a possibility with such a small spread. We don’t think we will need the extra five minutes to cash this ticket, however.                 

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Today, I'd like to roll with the Canadiens at home as small dogs.  I expect them to get up for this game facing the Leafs as they look to snap a 3 game losing streak.  The Canadiens come off a series losing both games to the Jets while getting shut out 5-0 in their last game.  Allen comes off one of his worst starts and needs to step it up in replacement of Price if the Canadiens want to stay playoff relevant.  The Canadiens occupy the last playoff spot and have a 6 point lead over Calgary.  They picked up Eric Staal before the deadline to help add some experience for their playoff push.  As of writing this it looks like Hutchinson will get the start giving red hot Campbell a rest which will be an advantage for the Canadiens.  Regardless who starts we still like the Canadiens.  I think this spot sets up well for the Canadiens to bust out here and grab a big win and snap their losing streak.  Everyone is on the Leafs which makes for a great public fade as well, and add in the fact Leafs are 4-1 vs the Canadiens this year gives some added revenge here for the Canadiens. Take Montreal.  Canadiens are 22-4 in their last 26 games following a home loss of 3 or more goals.                 

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As per our selection on Everton, this is going to be a "get right" game for Everton as they've gone winless over their last four games which included losses to Chelsea and Man City. They are still in the hunt for a place in Europe but have to get back on the winning trail as they are running out of time to make a move. They have been solid on their travels this year and they've won more away points than just three teams this season. History is on Everton's side in this one as well as they've won four of the last six meetings with Brighton and we expect them to grab at least a point here tonight. As for Brighton, they are in the thick of a relegation battle, but with just two wins coming against Newcastle and Southampton in their last nine games, we don't see how Brighton will be able to beat an upper echelon at this point in the season. Everton is healthy and eager to end the losing - similar to our Arsenal selection last night. Take Everton on this matchup.               

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This is a Crystal Palace team that has held its own against elite teams per defense and you have a Chelsea team that has done the same. Chelsea throttled this team last time 4-0, and it is hard to imagine at the very least, this Palace team does not show up on the defensive end with great intensity. I don't see this game as a 4-0 blowout like it was last night and more than likely it will be a strong defensive battle that will see Chelsea probably win 1-0 or 2-0 - But, we believe there is a decent chance, that the final can be 1-0 and we will ride the Under here for that reason.               

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Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Detroit Pistons hit the road to take on the Trailblazers at the Moda Center in Portland, OR on Saturday night. The Pistons have posted a 5-1 record to the over in their last six games where they were playing with one day of rest and they have that same 5-1 record in their last six games following a straight up win by ten points or more. They have also gone up and over the number in four of their last five where they were listed as an underdog and the are an impressive 9-4 to the over in their last thirteen where they faced a team with a winning % of .500 or higher. The Blazers have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone over the total in four of their last five where they were listed as the favorite and they are 11-4 to the over in their last fifteen games where they faced a team with a losing record. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 6-2 to the over in their last eight head-to-head meetings at the Moda Center along with the fact that they are 13-5 to the over in their last eighteen meetings overall and that's where we'll have our play as we think both teams are going to push the pace a bit in Portland on Saturday night.               

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I will roll with the Flyers here today as they are desperate for a win as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive.  I think they are catching the Bruins at the right time as they come off a big win over the Capitals as underdogs.  Yes the Bruins have had the Flyers number this year, so the Flyers have some revenge here as well.  The Bruins due to injuries have had to resort to their 3rd and 4th string back up goalies.  The Flyers were able to take the Islanders who have been unbeatable at home to a shoot out only to fall short so they will be extra motivated today coming off a tough loss.  We are seeing over 70% of the public taking the Bruins which makes this a great public fade.  The Bruins are 6 points ahead of the Flyers in the standings so a win here today will be huge for the Flyers.  Take the Flyers at home to get it done today.  Bruins are 2-9 in their last 11 games following a win.               

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I'm fading Alvey in this matchup, as he has not earned a victory in 5 straight fights (1 draw). That includes two knockouts by punches and two decisions. Marquez has been on a long winning streak of late with just 1 loss in his last 7 fights. He won his last bout at UFC 258 against Maki Pitolo, earning a fight on the night bonus. Getting him at this price is too good to pass up..               

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The Los Angeles Kings pulled off a huge come from behind win in their last game scoring three goals in the final period to beat Arizona by a 4-3 score. It was a big victory for LA in a game that they probably didn't deserve to win. The Kings have not been playing well of late as they have dropped 6 of their last 8 games coming into this one.

San Jose is coming off an ugly 5-1 loss in their last game to a bad Anaheim team in a game they were -170 favorites. The Sharks have had a couple days off to stew over this bad defeat. I expect them to bring maximum energy and intensity to this one tonight. The Sharks have dominated the Kings this season beating them in 5 of their 6 head to head games.

Play San Jose in this game.               

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Today, I'd like to roll with the Spurs as road underdogs as this is a great spot for them to do well here.  This is a roll the Spurs have done well in all year as road underdogs, while you have a Nuggets team that is 12-14 ATS at home on the season.  These two teams just hooked up the other night with the Nuggets taking the first game.  I get that the Nuggets are rolling since the All Star Break and getting Gordon at the deadline but I am not sure they get up for the Spurs a second time when they have Celtics, Warriors, and Heat on deck.  Add in the fact that Murray is set as questionable for today's game, which would only help the Spurs as well here.  Popovich called out his bench after the game saying they have to be better.  Murray also said after the game that their defense needs to show up as their practice is not translating to the game and mentioned taking pride in playing defense.  I think this is a great spot for a Spurs team that are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.  Spurs have revenge and the Nuggets likely won't get up for them a second time as they will be looking ahead.  Great public fade as well to boot as we are seeing over 70% of the public on the Nuggets.  Take the Spurs to cover the number today.                

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We roll with the Braves today at home as they have to be ticked at how they started the season. Not to mention being swept by their arch rival Philadelphia? Philly is already ahead in the standings by 3 games? You don't think the Braves know it's time to suit up and show up? If the Braves do not win this series they are down 4 games in the NL East, and that is 10 days into the season. Zack Wheeler is a great pitcher for the Phillies. We actually think he has a fantastic year, and we are high on the Phillies as they were one of our futures to play over .500 baseball. We just think however that Philly is coming off the high of starting 5-1, dominating the Mets and these very Braves, and thus the letdown begins. Charlie Morton is a fantastic pitcher with a ton of playoff experience, so he is no stranger to big game moments. Look for the Braves to have all the motivation here on their Opening Night. Phillies are 5-12 in the last 17 meetings in Atlanta.                 

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Just 5 days ago Fulham gave up 3 goals to Aston Villa. And, you know that has to burn this team who gave up 2 to Leeds United, then 3 to Manchester City, and who had shut out Liverpool 3 games prior to that. They had held Tottenham to 1 goal and Crystal Palace to 0 goals before that and now as they come off giving 3 goals, defense should be a priority for this squad here. Plus, you have a Wolves team that gave up 3 goals to West Ham and that has to irk them coming into this game as well. The Wolves had played well the two previous games with a combined 1 goal given up prior to the 4 goals at Manchester City which is what shaped them up for the next two games. I think the Wolves will shape up on defense as this game likely goes under the posted total.                 

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Take Kiwoom Heroes over Lotte Giants. Can never go wrong backing Eric Jokisch on the mound and we will do that tonight against Lotte. He is a veteran in KBO and has a 2.64 E.R.A. in two plus years of action. His opponent is Kim Jin-uk, as 18-year-old newcomer who is being thrown into the Lion’s Den tonight. Both teams have gotten off to so-so starts in 2021 but Kiwoom will win for the second time this season behind Jokisch.                 

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We roll with the Cavs as we think they are in a good spot to do well in this matchup. The San Antonio Spurs really needed to win the game against the Cavs to at least salvage what remained of their homestand, and the Cavs rolled in and beat them. The Spurs faced the Pacers the night before with 4 key players out, gave up 130+ Points and lost to them in a shocker, then they turn around and face a Cavs team who comes in and one would have thought the Spurs would demolish them - but no, the Cavs rolled them. The Cavs were 8 point dogs coming into that game and won outright. That speaks to us. Here, you have a team, that beat a team with heavy motivation, this kind of stuff matters. The Cavs dropped 125 points, lost to OKC earlier this year by 16 points, just 2 months ago actually, and are looking to close this road trip on a positive vibe. This team certainly is playing well, playing well for the future, has Sexton, Garland, Love, Okoro and Hartenstein. Nothing against OKC, they are a good young team that play hard, but they lack the manpower at this point, they have Roby questionable for this game, Dort is out indefinitely with a concussion their defensive star, no SGA or Horford as well. These Cavs likely get it done today again.                   

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Today, we'll roll with the Penguins to bounce back as they come off a terrible loss to the Rangers 8-4.  They have now lost two in a row and are in desperate need of a win here as they are 4 points out of first in the East division.  They have allowed 15 goals in the last two games so I expect a motivated group here to come out focused on shutting things down.  The Penguins have had the Rangers number this year going 5-2 against them.  We were on the Rangers the other night for the win but we like the Penguins to get it done today.  Great public fade to boot as the public remembers what they just saw the other night with the Rangers blowing them out.  Penguins are 8-2 in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.                  

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The Brewers have just constantly had signals we like in their favor the last few days. For example, they have been either even money or a moderate favorite, yet the public refuses to back them. You see, the public likes sexy teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or like the last few days...the Cubs and the Cardinals. For some reason public perception is "No way the Brewers win, the Cubs are so much better". Or in this case "Wainwright is pitching for the Cardinals and it's their season opener...they're gonna crush the Brewers". Not so fast. First of all, we get the better pitcher here by far. Corbin Burnes is an absolute stud. We would probably go out on a limb and say he might win a Cy Young one day. He had a terrific first start going 6.1 innings, only giving up a solo home run. Keep in mind that the Cardinals come in off facing two great young pitchers in Miami  - Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez, who both completely shut down the Cards bats for the first 5-6 innings, before both of them gave up some runs late. Adam Wainwright toes the rubber for the Cards, and he had a terrible first outing in Cincinnati (we were on the Reds that game).  Waino is still a decent pitcher, and yes that was just one outing so it's a small sample size. However, we just think it's a matter of time before the Brewers bats bust out. They have won their last two games only scoring 4 runs, and we think if they can get at least a few runs early, Burnes shuts down the Cardinals and Milwaukee spoils Opening Day in St Louis.  Oddsmakers have made the Brewers the favorite here for a reason and we agree.                   

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As per our selection on Chicago, sometimes when a team has another team's number, you just need to ride the wave. Chicago has beaten the Stars in three of four games so far this season and we see them adding to that total here on home ice. Chicago is off a loss in which they were shutout vs Nashville, but we know they have a much better offense than that, as they average nearly 2.75 goals per game, which is far better than what the Stars average. Chicago is also one of the least penalized teams in the league, and that will negate the Star's sixth-ranked power play in this one. Dallas has suffered defeat in four of their last six games and is simply not playing good hockey right now. This will be their fifth road game in eight days and we see fatigue setting in late in this one. Take Chicago at this great price and let's cash a big play tonight.                   

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The Heat have been in playoff mode since they came back from the All-Star break. Miami has rattled off four in a row and have increased their record to 26-23 on the year. It is time for teams to start separating themselves from the pretenders and become contenders and right now the Heat are looking like the bubble Heat. This is a good spot for them to get another win in South Beach with the up and down Grizz in town. Memphis has won 2 in a row, but this is a mismatch for them so lay the number in Sunny Florida.                     

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Today, we roll with the Lakers as I think we are catching in a good spot to do well here today.  The Lakers come off a terrible loss to the Clippers in a game where the Lakers had their lowest offensive output of the season only scoring 86 points.  I get the Lakers are with out KD and Lebron but they need other players to step up.  Kuzma scored just 6 points in the last game and they need him to be better on the offensive end with the stars out, so I expect he plays more of a role here today.  Add in the fact the Raptors have beaten up on the Lakers in recent years, I think they get some revenge today as well.  This is not the same Raptors team this year as in past years.  The Raptors are very short handed right now and only had 9 players in Monday's game that saw them just barely get by the lowly Wizards.  I think this is a tough spot for them being short handed, playing on a back to back against a motivated Lakers team off a loss.  The public is all over the Raptors as no one wants a part of the Lakers right now given their struggles without KD and Lebron but I think this is a great buy low spot on the Lakers who come in rested and motivated.  Like the Lakers here to hang tough and possibly win outright.  Lakers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.  Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.                    

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Today, I like the Brewers to grab a win on the road and get back on track.  This is a pitching matchup where we like the Brewers to have the clear edge here.   Adbert Adzolay, not a name you know...yet. This is the Cubs starter today. However you might get to know him for all the wrong reasons. He had a very brief but very painful 7 innings pitched in Spring Training, giving up 9 runs. The Brewers counter with Freddy Peralta, who is coming off a great preseason, and has pretty respectable career numbers.  Cubs have just 6 hits in 43 at bats vs Peralta.  Peralta in the off season worked on adding some finesse to his pitches which will increase his strike out ratio.  The Brewers definitely have high expectations this year and the fact that they have started 1-3 means they will be motivated to win game two of this series tomorrow.  The Brewers offense is in desperate need of a break out and I think they get that here today against Adzolay.  I also think despite the Cubs three wins they have been fortunate as heading into Monday no one on team was hitting above .300.  Take the Brewers today.   The Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 when their opponent scores 5 or more their previous game.                 

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Gonzaga and Baylor were supposed to play four months ago, but the game was called off due to a positive Covid test. Only fitting that we finally see this game play out Monday evening. Both of these teams have not seen a team as good as the other this year. First off, the Bulldogs know they have to play better defensively. They let UCLA score 81 points in regulation. The most they had allowed in the tournament was 66 to USC prior to Saturday. Gonzaga (#7 in adjusted tempo) obviously will want to run up and down the floor, while Baylor (201st in adjusted tempo) will want to slow the pace and play a more methodical game. This is actually what UCLA did if you watched the whole game. They would wait until about ten seconds left on the shot clock for the first ten minutes of the game, to put up a shot attempt. Obviously they eventually fell into Gonzaga's game which is running up and down the floor at a faster pace, and it actually worked out for the Bruins because they have the athletes to do so. Baylor is extremely athletic as well, but they won't be able to run like UCLA did and Gonzaga does with the Bears big men. Baylor has to play at Baylor's pace to have any shot in this game. If Baylor plays their game, the way they want to play it, it will likely go under the total. If Baylor does not play their game, they will probably get blown out, and blowouts often lead to unders, as it takes both teams scoring to help the over. Look for a slower paced game with both teams trying to feel each other out, particularly in the first half, ultimately leading to a lower scoring game than most think.                 

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