UFC 251 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!LOST - Take
Elizeu Zaleski over Muslim Salikhov (9:05 p.m., Saturday, July 11th)
In the welterweight division we have a matchup between Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos (22-6) and Muslim Salikhov (16-2). Salikhov came into the UFC with an absurdly impressive kick boxing record of 185-13 with 76 wins coming by KO! Salikhov's debut in the UFC did not go as planned when he lost via submission, but since has silenced any doubters with 3 straight wins, including his most recent knockout win against Nordine Taleb. He has an incredibly unique and dynamic style and has serious one punch knockout power. The main issue with Salikhov is if you can take him down and get him on his back, he does not seem to have many answers. Dos Santos has a similar striking style to Muslim, and has a slight speed advantage, but unfortunately does not pack the same power, which can be a problem if this fight stays standing. Dos Santos may find himself winning minutes, but the threat of the KO is always there and the longer it stays on the feet, the more likely that is to happen. Zaleski does have a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is more than capable of handling Salikhov's weakness on the mat. Dos Santos will need to stay on the outside, and pick his shots, while timing some good wrestling entries to attempt to ground Salikhov, and if he is able to do that, we like his chances. There's always the worry he won't attempt any takedowns as he has been used to finishing most fights via KO himself, but if he can utilize some smart fight IQ and his corner gives him the correct advice and gameplan, there is a clear path for victory here. This is a close fight, but we will trust Dos Santos to take the smart approach here, and for that reason will take the value in the dog.
LOST - Take
Volkan Oezdemir over Jiri Prochazka (9:35 p.m., Saturday, July 11th)
The featured prelim of UFC 251 will feature a light heavyweight matchup between Volkan Oezdemir (17-4) and Jiri Prochazka (26-3). This is an interesting matchup to say the least. Jiri is coming into this UFC debut with high expectations which can be seen by the matchmakers throwing him right to the top of the pile to fight 7th ranked Volkan Oezdemir. Volkan is a tough fighter with a solid chin but has some cardio and speed issues. Prochazka has looked good on the regional scene, and while he has a bunch of finishes vs. some washed up UFC veterans, he really has not been tested. The UFC are always looking for the next biggest thing, and they are happy to throw newcomers in there at too high a level, just to see if something sticks. Volkan is proven in the UFC and has fought the best of the best. He has been in there with the likes of Ovince Saint Preux, Misha Cirkunov, Jimi Manuwa, Anthony Smith, Dominick Reyez and Daniel Cormier! You could even make the argument that Volkan won against Reyez, but unfortunately lost a split decision. We are proponents of betting the more experienced, proven fighters and that has been very lucrative for us in the past, and we do not plan on diverting away from that strategy here. The oddsmakers have Oezdemir as a -145 favorite, which implies only a 59.2%-win probability. We would argue that Oezdemir has all the tools to win this fight more than 70% of the time, no matter where this fight takes place, and would line this closer to -250. For that reason, we must take the shot on Volkan in a fight we think he will outclass Jiri, and probably finish him.
LOST - Take
Jessica Andrade over Rose Namajunas (10:40p.m., Saturday, July 11th)
Next up in the women's strawweight division, we have a rematch between Jessica Andrade (20-7) and Rose Namajunas (8-4). If you watched the first fight, it is clear that although Andrade pulled out the victory, it was a bout in which Rose was winning. She was landing at will and beating up Andrade until she was slammed on her neck/head which effectively knocked her out. From a technical standpoint there is no doubt that Namajunas is a far superior striker, but MMA fights are not won on slick technique alone. Andrade is a walk forward brawler, who will absorb a lot of damage as she tries to land a bomb of her own. This worked well for her in the past but when fighting someone who can stick and move like Rose, it was proven to be ineffective. Andrade went to plan B and was able to grab and throw Namajunas around with ease. Rose has always had a tough time with the mental aspect of mixed martial arts and she does not seem like her head, or heart is in it most of the time. Andrade on the other hand, is a pure fighter and we think she would have learned a lot from their first meeting. In all honesty, we see this as a fight in which Andrade will close the gap much earlier on and out wrestle and grapple Rose to a unanimous decision victory. Round 1 may be ugly and Jessica might be getting cracked, but as the fight wears on we think she will find a way to stifle the movement of Namajunas and grind her way to an ugly 29-28 on the judges' scorecards. We must take the value here on the dog who has a clear path to victory, if she can avoid the knockout.
WIN - Take
Over 2.5 Rounds between Jose Aldo and Petr Yan (11:15p.m., Saturday, July 11th)
This is the first of 3 championship fights, as Jose Aldo (28-6) will face-off vs. Petr Yan (14-1) for the vacant bantamweight title. This fight will be so good, and if this were a few years ago, we would be all over the dog price with Jose Aldo. We believe he is being overlooked in this spot, but he's been in so many wars over the years that his gas tank starts to fail him later on, even if he's won the first half of the fight. Do not get us wrong - Petr Yan is exceptionally good and has a solid fight IQ, but this is a big stage for him, fighting one of the best to ever do it for a UFC championship. We think there could be some octagon jitters for Petr Yan, and he is historically a slow starter anyway, and Aldo looks great early on when he can utilize his speed and technique before starting to slow in the later rounds. This will be a close one, but we feel Aldo will have his way early, but as the fight proceeds, Yan could be live for the comeback victory. Yan is tough as nails, and Aldo is not as washed as many think he is. This fight should see the later rounds, and, in all honesty, we are surprised to see the over 2.5 as low as -170 considering this is a 5 rounder. This is a lean on Aldo looking good early, and that coincides with the over.
LOST - Take
Max Holloway over Alexander Volkanovski (11:40p.m., Saturday, July 11th)
In the featherweight division, we have a matchup where Max Holloway (21-5) will attempt to reclaim his featherweight title when he matches up against Alexander Volkanovski (21-1). This is an interesting rematch. After watching the first fight, it was closer than most think, although there is still no doubt in our mind that Volkanovski won. It was also clear to us that Holloway did not fight to his usual standard. He did not let his hands go like he usually does, and he did not push the pace either. He allowed Volkanovski to get far too comfortable and once he allowed that confidence to sink in, it was hard to put his stamp on the fight as the rounds wore on. We think this fight will play out remarkably like the first one with a few differences. The time off should have worked wonders for Max, and he looked better than ever at the weigh-ins. It appears he is not carrying the weight and pressure of being champion and defending his belt time and time again. This time it will be Volkanovski feeling that pressure. If Holloway can let his hands go and remember to check some of those Volkanovski leg kicks, he should be able to out-volume, out-point and have a higher overall work rate than Volk. This will be another close fight, but we believe in reverse order, where Max will edge out the exchanges and reclaim his UFC title. We must take a shot on this dog price with one of the best featherweights of all-time.
