Topic: FAIRLAY - SPORTS BETTING for experts - highest liquidity, provably best odds - page 98. (Read 135445 times)

Sorry Tony. Can you tell for how long it did not worked? Anyone else with problems?

We hope to even increase the numbers and see more trading happen!

Indeed - we have partnerships with market maker but every user who places a open bet is a market maker.
Regarding the volume - your calculation is a oversimplification. The real exposure is lower. Lets consider the example of a soccer game with odds of 2.95 for all 3 outcomes. And lets assume the open amount is 100BTC on each outcome.

If someone places 100BTC on one outcome the exposure of the market maker is 195 BTC. However, if more bets come in (lets say 100 each on both other outcomes) than the risk exposure would even drop to 0. Since only one outcome is possible one bet of the market maker would make him loose 195BTC but the other two would win him 100BTC each. So he will win 5BTC for sure (unless the event is canceled) So we always keep track of the real exposure of each market maker. So all market makers have to deposit enough to cover the risk of a few of their biggest single bets. In case they reach the deposited amount with their exposure all other open bets from them are removed from the orderbook.

So in short: all (single) open amount are covered by deposits but not the sum of all together. So in theory it could happen that suddenly a lot of open amounts get way smaller (if a market maker reaches its exposure limit) But in practice we don't expect that to happen at all.

I'm clicking on matches to check the odds and nothing's happening!
 

Good question, with those figures it's hard to tell as i amazes me the level of liquidity available which is ideal for trading the odds any way.

Like i said you never can tell much!

Do you have a partnership with a market maker or are you or one of your investors providing the liquidity for all the sporting events? 

For example, lets look at the just first page of soccer events:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/soccer/all/all/?tt=0

AS Monaco vs. Juventus
Unmatched : 677,735.64 mBTC

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid
Unmatched : 823,013.70 mBTC

Thats 1500 btc from those two events alone.  There is over 4700 btc unmatched on the first page.  Can those amounts actually be paid out in a win?

Well - other than a bookmaker we do not have a fixed limit. And we can not guarantee to accept a bet. However - we do have very active market makers and user so usually you will find open bets on the major events of >100BTC. If you bet a even bigger amount we match as much as possible and the rest will be a new open bet.


Currently we don't earn money at all with sport bets but it helps very much to grow our market and as said above - for a (prediction/betting) market it is crucial to reach a critical mass. With this critical mass we will have lots of options to earn a reasonable share and still offer unique service and conditions for all user.

We will have the 0% policy on sportbets at least for the next 6 month. Maybe forever. We are in general super excited about the whole concept of a prediction market/ (betting exchange). However, unlike a bookmaker it is important to reach a critical mass. Only if the market on the events are liquid the odds become very good (far better than at bookmakers). So as you pointed out - one part will be to offer markets on events no one offers odds on. So we encourage everyone to make proposal for any kind of events: https://www.fairlay.com/event/new/
Another strategy might be to charge for the use of the API.

On the affiliate topic - you are right - that is our disadvantage, we can not give away a first deposit bonus or spend a lot of money on marketing. We might still be able to give away a small amount per new user for affiliation links. Actually we already have the affiliations links working and we do track the numbers and we will soon start to pay for new users - we are just about to decide the exact conditions.

here we go: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/soccer/russia-premier-league/

Actually we don't have an odds provider - we do have an provider for the sport events (and the results) and we have market maker on our platform (and we are still looking for more - have a look here: https://www.fairlay.com/api). So the odds on our page are just the result of all active user.

Just curious about your site... so you can accept bets as high as 132 btc with no fee? How does that work without a matching player?

Good luck!

Yes I have the same question. But I am pretty sure that as the site gets bigger the fees will have to rise to pay the bills and maintaince of the site and server.

for a 10 BTC bet your liability would be 3 BTC  

@fairlay
Can you pm me your odds provider? I find it really weird that they seem to offer odds for quite exotic baseball leagues (korean baseball  ) but don´t provide odds
for the russian premier soccer league.

Is there a lay liability thing? I just placed a lay bet, and it has odds of a little over 1.30…i was wondering what my liability would be on that?

Thanks!

Do you plan to keep it 0% fees for sports betting for the future?  It's in interesting strategy if you plan to only profit off the other events.  If only users were rational then you should have the whole bitcoin sportsbetting market in no time.

However, with other sites having a couple percent profit, this gives them a budget to market, better UI, affiliate program, etc...  Perhaps you can consider an affiliate program that pays say 25% of the fee's you make for that event, so it would only payout for the non sporting events at the time being.  This would give an incentive to other users to post and use an affiliate link when reviewing your site or for a signature campaign.

Yeah its better for you to start the signature campaign but can you really compete to other campaign since so many good campaign out there. Lets make it clear, right here I am not talking about dadice and bit-x. May be you should compete it with other campaign that have same type with you so you still got a chance to make it out there. But before that make sure that your signature design is attractive so people will curious and start to go into your site

Its looking really good and that 0% fees-wow. Will you add matches for Ice hockey World Champion which will start on few days in Czech republic ?

great way to advertise and get your name out there for alot of members to see. instead of only being seen in the gambling section your name will be all over the forum.

By the way - we are thinking about starting a signature campaign - any thoughts/comments on that?

We have added your suggestion here: can you please vote for it:
https://fairlay.uservoice.com/forums/239705-general/suggestions/7634280-add-total-predictions-total-amount-unmatched-f

But I guess we can do it anyway. I think we had a reason to remove them (maybe because the outcome names - the teams) are much longer than a simple "True". Or it has been performance reasons. However - we will check and add it if possible.

Maybe you are right. However - as long as "replace by fees" https://github.com/petertodd/replace-by-fee-tools is a concept that is actively discussed it is still a gamble to accept 0 conf transaction. Lets take the example from yesterday. Someone places a 123BTC bet one minute before a game starts. Now it can take up to 70 minutes for a block to be found. After 70 minutes the game can already be decided. So if there are only 10% of the pools using a "replace by fees" we have a significant risk.