That is a good analysis which you have made. Another advantage for Holstein Kiel is that nobody expected them so far. They have slowly crawled up the table and now they even have the chance to go into the winter break at place 1. Even if they will not finish on place 1 they have nothing to lose. But St Pauli on the other hand, have a lot more pressure. They could lose first place in the last moment.
But this season there has been very rapid progress shown by Holstein Kiel, last season they finished Bundesliga 2 in 8th place and now have the opportunity to occupy first place.
This development is almost the same as their first season 2017/18 and it is possible that this season Holstein Kiel can outperform St. Pauli and came out as champions so they could enter the Bundesliga to compete with big team in the main competition.
Nothing is impossible as long as Holstein Kiel is able to continue making changes and can slowly have stable performance in improving the quality of the game for the better in the future.
Even though they are only about to enter the middle of the season at the moment, at least they have managed to get ahead of the team that always dominates Bundesliga 2 like Hamburger, and they can also keep up with St. Pauli.
This season has really been great opportunity for Holstein Kiel.