Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1500. (Read 2032274 times)

I bet you would be happy to go through all of my 1000 posts to prove some relatively pointless thing?  Unfortunatly I cannot get a database dump of the forum and the UI is fairly tedious.  Unlike a lot of other people it seems, I feel some significant duty to do good and detailed analysis if I make hard and fast statements....so I rarely make these.  And anyway I gave you a classic example since it was at hand (this thread.)  Again, do with it what you will.

If your goal is to produce such a mountain of text that you can argue that history proves you right and the most prescient person on the planet and rely on the reality that no (honest) person in their right mind is going to analyze 4000 posts, then it is probably working for you.

Translation: I'm to lazy to actually engage in a discussion.  I'll just sit here in the peanut gallery and throw empty shells at you.

I made it pretty clear that these were my general perceptions of your work.  I may or may not be alone so use the info as you wish.

I forgot to mention that I'll be happy to point out such issues going forward and/or as I run across such things in the course of other research.

you don't have to worry about me.  i remember my first buy of BTC @ $1.60 the day before Easter last year so i'm sitting just fine thank you.  that's documented also if you care to go back to check my posts.  i'll make you do the work this time.


that's funny.  if i ever leveled such a severe accusation at someone i usually would have a specific example or more in mind that i never forgot.  oh well.  no way to assess whether you serious or not.

I got free tickets to see 'Avengers' Friday.  Although I've never been into comics (except 'underground comix') and didn't know much about them, and these big fight movies are not a genera that normally does much for me, I found the movie surprisingly enjoyable.

For those who have seen the movies and like analogies, I thought of a good one:

Let's say Gold=Hulk and USD=Loki.

 - Near the end of the movie, Hulk goes after Loki and starts by smashing him through a wall.  (That would be 2000->2011)

 - Then there is some discussion with Loki saying something like "I'm the world's reserve.  I will not be bullied by you, you barbarous relic!"  (That would be now.)

 - The the funniest part of the movie occurs.  (That would be what Gold does to the USD in the probably not to distant future.)

"Puny world reserve currency."

Are you kidding?  I've made more money on PM's than I ever dreamed I would.  I've lost money on Bitcoin however.  Oh well.  I believe that I played a role in supporting the solution in it's darkest hour (so far) when it was down near $2/BTC and since I believe in the solution and hope that it see's a chance to prove it's metal (forgive the pun) I am not complaining.

You, OTOH, if you dumped PM's and bought BTC around this time last year seem to be staring at a pretty significant hole (though not nearly the hole it was at the $2/BTC time)  Assuming you dumped  the last of your PM's around 5/10/11 and it took some days to get the money wired and make your BTC purchases, I would guess that you are already in the red.

I don't know if you sold BTC to cover your initial investment or not at the peak.  I hold more by a smallish percentage than the magic number which I actually wish to have.  If it gets to a point where I can sell down to that number to pay off my initial investment and leave me sitting on the stash that I want, I'll do so.  Else, I've always considered every dime I've spent on BTC to be a total loss.  If we get down to the sub $2/BTC range again and the solution still appears to me as being as solid as it did last time, I still plan on tanking up to (or toward) another magic number.


I don't have the time or energy to get a clear understanding on 'your USD hegemony theory' from that rather lengthy thread.  If you want to sum it up again in a few sentences I'll put some effort into responding.  As for my other complaints, it is to tedious to look for good historic examples.  As for being flat out wrong about an assertion, this thread will do...Gold has not collapsed yet in the way I define 'collapse', and Bitcoin is not up since you wrote the thing initially.  If you are going to try to pick a point in time when your projections happened to be playing out, that's what I consider 'cherry picking'.  If you want to state that reality now has proven you right all along, that's calling 'black white'.  I was only fairly honest in my (personal and general) assessment of (some of) your work since I figured that there was some chance that you would appreciate it.

In other-words, take out medium-term shorts on everything, and hold lots of cash.  Or short-term US bonds.
Remember the money bases M2, M3 are based upon 'leveraged assets.' If those assets dissolve, so does the overall monetary supply.

i seriously considered not responding to you b/c it's like talking to the wall as i learned dealing with you in the "Gold: I smell a trap" thread.  as you said, you only read what you want to.  or perhaps when you have a vested interest in not understanding something you won't?

look around you man.  over the last 12 yrs we've been having a global price discovery facilitated by the Internet.  we've entered the Age of Deleveraging.  Nasdaq is down, stock market down (compared to its 10/07 high), housing down.  now, over the last year commodities down, silver down, gold down, miners down, Euro debt defaulted, Iceland debt defaulted, Ireland debt defaulted.  we're on the verge of 2 big kahunas defaulting; Spain and Italy.  this will spill over to Germany.  eventually i think the Euro gets disbanded resulting in another huge debt default. 

look at the past 1.5 mo where US stocks are being affected.  there are a boatload of individual stocks that have gapped down big as their shareholders have been taken out and shot in the head; GCMR, PRU, DECK, CSCO, and the most recent on Friday, JPM.  we are not going to continue to inflate no matter what the Fed does and all these price indicators are telling you that.  look at Morgan Stanley, they will probably be the next Lehman.  JPM goes right to the heart of the world's financial system.  they hold the biggest derivatives book the universe has ever seen and they are the Feds tool and connection to all markets.  Friday indicates BIG trouble.

to directly answer your question, no, they can't print fast enough to fill the imploding debt or asset values.  this is why asset values are falling and if you choose to ignore this you will lose alot of money.

Maybe this will help (it's how I decided to amuse myself for an hour between MIT lectures):



Debt will be fully monetized, or very close to it. The "muddle-through" efforts in red are exactly what lead to a catastrophic failure, as it is a fight against the blue section showing time needed to repair and restructure. At a threshold where sufficient damage has been done, there is no way to repair without completely replacing critical components of the structure. It's the modern Icarus.

How about this - assuming everyone in this thread is familiar with computers well enough to understand how digital memory storage systems work, imagine you've decided to see how long a single database server can last, taking expansion and upgrades to the max possible with zero tolerance for downtime of any kind.

You start off with a system having the usual assortment of components; mainboard, memory, power supply, and solid state storage for this scenario. Each gradient on the far left represents a SSD, and each box right of that represents 10% of the drive capacity (1 unit). A given constraint is that the mainboard can only handle a maximum of 4 SSD devices. Also, any hardware added cannot be removed without preserving data integrity without resorting to media other than what is present in the system.

The database software requires at least 7 units of the current SSD, and growth is expected to be linear.

So far so good, everything is running nicely on new hardware.


A power outtage caused severe damage to the SSD, so badly that there isn't enough storage to operate the database.


A second SSD is added of the same capacity as the first, for simplicity of the example; the database is rebuilt with minimal loss.


The database now requires 8 units, and another major SSD failure occurred, this time affecting both. You max out the mainboard's SSD expansion to 4 drives.


Some time goes by, more SSD failures happened, and the database now requires 15 units to operate. Since there are only 16 units available, and the most damaged drive has 2 units, replacing it would bring the system down to 14 units and cause the database to cease operating.


Because the last two drives added were from OCZ, they fail in spectacular fashion. RAM was expanded to the maximum of 16 units during the last failure, so it is sufficient to run the database with 1 unit for the operating system. Running entirely in volatile memory, any black swan error could cause the data structures to become corrupted.


There are some nitpicking issues that would've extended the life of the system further, such as swapping SSDs while the database is running in memory, but eventually even the drive controller circuitry will fail. The point is that there will eventually be enough failures that there is no possible way for the system to continue without extreme structural changes. Swapping the mainboard would be tantamount to a brain transplant today, or Embraer instantaneously switching to apparel.

Computers can be duplicated easily. Planes in the air cannot. Nor can the role of the US dollar and it's debt infrastructure. A duplicate, or functional equivalent of similar capacity must be in place for transition. If there isn't, it's back to semi-agrarian society. There are functional equivalents for the USD, but the transition is destined for nastiness. The Euro or Yuan would be an upgrade in structure, but not by much.

What we have seen is demand deflation mixed with an inflationary response keeping the financial institutions alive and the government deficits going, causing inflationary pressures.

Ignoring the last spike which I don't get do you reckon something like this will happen but that the overall supply will shrink?



So banks would be full reserve? Debt collapse replaced into base money? So banks do not fail and debt gets wiped out at the same time.

Why does the federal reserve want deflation again? I thought they want inflation.

Someone like Paul Krugman wants hyper-lending to re-occur causing a massive inflationary boom.

Anyway, it's 3:27 here in the UK. Time to go to bed and perhaps write something tomorrow when my brain is awake.

yeah, i believe it; selective reading of what you want to hear.


i seriously doubt the entire debt load of the US will collapse but i think it will be partially written off/restructured/defaulted.  we're seeing this right now abroad and somewhat here with mortgage debt.  as a result the USD will go up, as we've been seeing, which will continue to be a paradox to you.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_hegemony This? Something to do with the reserve currency status? You think that's going to last forever and a day do you?

As you can tell I ignore the large posts in this thread. I've got better things to do.

A debt collapse in the USD would destroy the reserve currency status. In fact it would destroy the currency full stop. So are you now saying there wont be a total debt collapse?

i don't blame you.  it's questioning your foundational thesis and right now you're losing money.  i don't say that to taunt you.  i'm just making an observation.  

i still haven't gotten a clear, understandable rebuttal to my USD hegemony theory that i've argued all along in this thread and in the "Gold: I smell a trap" thread where i debated miscreanity for 4 straight months with multiple posts per day.


please provide some examples so i can assess your claims.  yes, i'm sure i can come across as arrogant (i guess) but thats b/c i have a lot of confidence in what i say.  after having picked as many corners as i have over the years i've come to believe in my abilities.  what can i say?  this recent downturn call i've made in the stock market and Apple is an ongoing call we both can assess realtime.


it is indeed.

ok, then we're cool on that.  all my buying and selling was done here at my local coin dealer.  he's very reputable and we check Kitco on his internet connection before every buy or sell.  yeah, he charges a premium  but i honestly don't remember what it was that long ago.  i DO remember him nailing me btwn 3-4% when i sold last year which was outrageous but i wanted to sell right away near the top and he knew he had me by the balls.  he had me fill out a form with all my personal data and mailed me a 1099 towards the beginning of the year upon which i'll have to pay 50% regular income tax on the profits.  THAT was an eye opener.

Cyph: Yes, I do have a big fat lazy ass and I didn't research all the message you posted before.  In these posts you indicated it was accumulated much early on its way up.  That's entirely possible.

By just reading your previous post, it's easy to think you bought your physicals during the "big dip" with the cost of $9~$12; There was a way to do it (besides taking delivery of futures contract), but very few people did it. So I wasn't really accusing you of lying.   

It is disturbing to watch the dollar index struggling to maintain footing above 80. The elastic range of prices resulting from remaining market supply & demand outside of the artificial HFT & market maker machinations is at a far outer threshold.

If the dollar abruptly rockets 100-200 basis points and does not immediately come crashing back down, that will signal that the US dollar hegemony has separated from the global economy. In effect, the worldwide economic fiat structure will have been drawn & quartered by the USD, Euro, and Yuan.



Any value of the USD would then have no bearing on reality outside of domestic usage. The Euro and Yuan are becoming more tightly coupled with each other (and gold) than the dollar.

In the following clip, the Euro & Yuan are the crew, the ship is gold (Bitcoin would be a composite hull, and submersible), and the US dollar is the man overboard with the downed mast:

Master and Commander - Man Overboard

I have trouble watching any of her shows - the only things I remember after half an hour are her lips & legs...

In all seriousness, yes - virtually every piece of bank-sponsored legislation fully favours the banks themselves and has an eventual counter-productive result of pushing clients away; this bit regarding derivative holder priority is no different. What's changed from past decades of clients (esp. high net worth ones) putting up with this progressive encroachment is that they're finally deciding that the risk (now exceeding 100% loss of capital because not only is can funds me lost, but punitive legal measures can follow in addition to having lost everything in the first place!) of participating in a system where the rules are so thoroughly stacked against them is too great in respect to the potential return.

Pretty good chrono.  I'm glad I never called you a liar, though I will admit that I had some questions personally about some of your statements.

I don't think it's apt to characterize your post or really any posts as 'assets' or 'liabilities'.  As someone who holds tightly to my PM position at this time and sees no fundamental reason for PM's to fail in the near, mid, or really even near-distant future, I find the subject of this thread irritating.  I find it especially annoying when anyone asserts certain future events as givens since nobody has a crystal ball, and I think that you do that all the time.  I also feel that you tend to cherry-pick certain events and/or 'call black white' to make points but have no proof (or interest in the tedious task of generating it.)  I feel that many 'cycles disciples ' do the same thing.  All these things irritate me, but that's basically my problem.  From time to time I cannot resist fighting fire with fire.  Nothing personal of course...it's all in good fun.

This thread has proven fruitful in teasing out interesting viewpoints, philosophies, pointers, etc on a lot of peoples parts.  That's a good thing in my book.

i was just going to write a big long response to your lazy ass accusation but i think this is better.  while tvbcof considers alot of posts by me a liability, i consider it an asset, as i can easily point back in time to prove what i say.  these are in chronological order top to bottom.  remember silver topped 4/28/11:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.82056

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/how-to-fix-bitcoin-5540

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.93588

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.96613

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.99806

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.99815

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.116808

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.116814

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.130768

Cyph: I am really interested to know how you got your $9 physical, when paper and physical markets disconnected, all dealers were asking at least $2~3 premiums.....
your trades sound TGTBT