I suspect, given lead time on ASIC development and deployment, that most of the current "big wave of new algorithm ASIC miners" out of Bitmain is due more to the big price jumps LAST year, coupled with saturation of the market for the S9 leaving them with unused capacity for chips to be made at TSMC allowing them to introduce the new stuff now.
Keep in mind that development of a new chip on the current nodes takes at least 6 and more commonly 8-10 months, from "first design work" to "final chip design is verified and production quantity deliveries start", then add in another month or two to get the actual miner production design verified and production up to speed.
I'm quite certain that Bitmain would LIKE to have had more of these new models in production 6 months sooner, but probably weren't able to do so.
The new Z9 model is going to be somewhat like the L3 when it first showed up - there's enough existing hashrate that it'll take a while for them to make GPU mining unprofitable, not like the D3 where a single batch could more-or-less match all existing hashrate or the X3 where that single batch blew away the existing hashrate.
We're still looking at months to get the GPUs switched out into something else for profitability, or retired entirely.
It's not going to be like the E3 though, since the Z9 actually IS a ton more efficient than existing GPUs.
Agreed. Good summary.
The way I see it, the shift will be relatively gentle for both GPU and ASIC.
The only way a bet on z9 fails is if ZEC joins team fork.
The only way NVIDIA miners lose is if no-one is in team fork.
What happens is likely somewhere in the middle. Some fork, some don't. Those that fork vary from fast to slow implementation.
I see a future for both Z9 and NVIDIA miners in 4-6 months.
Right now I'm at 60% capital NVIDIA, 40% VEGA.
Diversity is the key word for home-grown miners ATM.
With that in mind, I'm looking to shift to:
30% NVIDIA, 25% VEGA, 15% Z9 and 30% FPGA.
The energy efficiency of the last two is a huge plus for me as I want to limit power draw to current levels (6,000W).
I have ads up to sell half of NVIDIA rigs.
Paying BTC for z9, as we pay no tax when 'buying' things with crypto in my country (32% tax when turning to fiat).
Paying AUD for FPGA, starting small. Two card rig from a leftover NVIDIA rig.
Exciting times 😀. Hedge your bets IMO!!!!!!!