Topic: How will halving affect the value? - page 13. (Read 19696 times)

It may affect the price drastically as miners will have to spend a lot of hashing power because the difficulty is higher.
And the bitcoin distribution will be less and less and the time goes by.

because bitcoin coverage will decrease and will certainly affect the strength of the market. the less supply more expensive as well a bitcoin.

This is just bad scenario :
if block halving done, miner will stop his hardware and try mining other altcoin like Etherum, so bitcoin network will be decrease around 10-20% , price still low (arround $400) , then other altcoin lead cryptocoin marketcap..?

 

I'm just wondering that if halving is supposed to make the price go up wouldn't people have already pushed the price up?

yeah it will go up, just don't believe people that says that price will go to 1500$ or even 2000$, that is bull*hit, in best case, price after halving will go up by 200$ but not more, also it should create panic, so price might fall a bit day after halving, but will rise later

Optimization always win

To be honest, that's kinda my position - I'm wary of the moon-talk, while being quietly bullish for the long-term.

Anyway, thanks for a good discussion - lots for me to think about! (I have zero experience with alts, by the way, and no recent experience with mining - I stopped mining when mining gear changed from "something I could recycle to play games" to "specialised hardware only useful for mining", and a lot has changed since then).

maybe i'm a bit too much into altcoin, were my example fit greatly(the 100 vs 0.1 comparison) i can understand that for a strong coin like bitcoin, this may be different, because it should in theory increase in the future, like it did in the past

but with all the doubts for the future, i'm still on the fence for this, while still being optimistic for the time being

Maybe. I do remember the excitement when we hit $1 and $10, but equally I can remember sitting around $10 for what seemed like an eternity, wondering if we'd ever see $20 again... I think the Golden Age of speculation was the year after the first halving, when we saw two new ATHs. Before that we'd had some initial price discovery (2010-2011) and then a long time sitting around $10 (2011-2012).

I have to admit I'm not sold on the 100 @ $1 vs 0.1 @ $1k argument. Take a hypothetical marginal miner making BTC worth $100 and with current costs of 99%, looking at $1 profit (in BTC), but with an expectation that the price of BTC will change (rise). I think in general there's an expectation that price's rate of change increases, but even without that assumption a miner (in the past and at present) has no certainty over the future. A miner who profited with $1 worth of BTC in March 2011 (when $1 = 1 BTC) and then sold two months later would have done worse than a miner who profited with $1 worth of BTC in December 2013 (when $1000 = 1 BTC) and then sold months later! (Sorry, that's a fairly contrived example, but I'm sure you get the point). Price decreases come in similar sizes to price increases, then and now.

it was more easy to speculate back then, in the sense that since the value was really low an icrease in value was more expected with a far greater factor than what we have nowadays(we still need to match the x25-30 increase that appeared in 2011-2012, for example...)

like i said it far better to have 100 coins a day at $1 each than 0.1 a day at $1k each...

Difficulty was significantly lower than it is now, sure. That doesn't mean mining was more profitable, it means that profitable miners then were more profitable than profitable miners now (for some miners, then and now, mining is not profitable). Mining has always been unprofitable for some miners - that's the engine that drives difficulty changes, and ultimately efficiency.

the diff was also much lower than what it is now, i cna argue that it was more profitable to mine bitcoin back then, not to mention that it is always better to have more coins per day at a lower price than the opposite

this because you can speculate more in the future, like it actually happened, those mienrs are now rich if they did not screwed their earning back then...

I think that the value will rise if that is going to happen in the future. But yeah you never know what can happen later in the future. Its hard to predict.
I hope that it will be ofcourse more worth. You can now see that the price is rising slowly.

The value will be affected for sure by the bitcoin, I think there will come a high price increase.

The first reason is of course by the block size that is coming.
The second reason is because of the point people are believing again in the bitcoin.
The third reason is the bitcoin growing everyday as you can also see on this forum.

The bitcoin has a very good future and the halving will let the amount go to a high amount.

Indeed, the halving will affect the value by its price, the price will go to a high amount this year that is one thing that is sure but it will take some time of course.

The halving can of course also be a downside for the price because there will be a lot of sellers but no buyers.

There were always "too many" miners - that's how difficulty works. This is how difficulty changed over Bitcoin's lifetime. The "drops" are because miners stopped mining (it was taking longer than 10 minutes for each block to be found). The drops in difficulty in mid-2011, that was because miners were stopping mining - because they were finding mining unprofitable. Small miners, still using GPUs, were competing with "farms" of rack-mounted boxes containing multiple GPUs. It was difficult for home miners to survive then. CPU miners had already been through the "there are too many GPU miners" stage; solo miners were starting to realise that pool mining was the future. Miners were starting to talk about FPGAs and ASICs.

@amph, the block reward was higher, but it was also worth considerably less than it is now. Back then $50 was a good price - a 50 BTC block reward was worth £2500 (50 x 50). Now $450 is an OK price, and a 25 BTC block reward is worth $11250. Then and now, there were/are miners operating at the margin, miners who did/will drop out at the next difficulty increase because they were/are barely profitable. Difficulty has always worked to make sure that mining is driven by efficiency - that less efficient miners are less profitable or unprofitable. There's no guarantee of huge profits, except through being more efficient than your competitors.

well home miners can switch to altcoin, there is the casual mining scene

home mining was never meant to be very long with bitcoin, after the first halving was already half dead anyway

There are too many miners now and too many big farms. It is difficult for home miners to survive now.

again the coparison is meaningless, because back then was very different few miners, not even asic, and not chinese party

also the block reward was higher and thus was guaranteed a huge margin on profit

I don't think it has to repeat itself ? what has happened is not necessary and it was the first time when something like that was created,hence there wouldn't be such affects again.

Yes it has to, unless it is profitable people wont mine.