Topic: Innosilicon A5 DashMaster 30.2G 750W - page 32. (Read 55224 times)

Brilliant analysis.

It also depends on how many miners there are and how much of the overall hashrate is comprised of high power ASICs.  If only 10% of the total hashrate (currently 15TH I think) comes from these ASICs, the differential in difficulty will not be a direct correlation to their individual hashing power, but as a percentage increase of total power on the network.  1.5TH would be about 500 A5 Dashmasters, if the batch is that size, so that's 10% of the network.  Add another 750gh from an approximately comparable size Antminer D3 batch size since it's 1/2 as powerful.  So that's 2.25TH of the total new network hash power total of  17.25TH on the network after the first batches of these new models goes online (unless the batches are MUCH larger, which seems unlikely).  So what we're really looking at difficulty wise is a 14% increase in network hashrate give or take a couple percent, so I would expect a differential increase comparable to the increase in total net hash, rather than one directly correlated in a 1:1 ratio based on how much more powerful these particular devices are.

There are also other factors to consider, such as miners leaving the network because the difficulty goes up too high for their profit margins to hold (vis a vis Ethereum), and that will reduce the overall network capacity, slowing the rate of difficulty increase for a while at least.

EDIT: Caveat to the analysis, that is 14% ON TOP of the normal difficulty increase rate that we're already witnessing, which is pretty steep as is.

The current calculations only take into account the current hashrate.  These new miners coming out in Aug-Oct are magnitudes more effective than current state-of-the-art miners.  Therefore, the hash will jump 10-20 times by October, and you should divide that $15k by 15 to get the accurate return by October.  So instead of $15k per month you would get $1k.  Or more.  Or less depending on actual numbers.

Yeah, big IF unfortunately. 

 What you are missing is that the iBelink unit should already be shipping, Baikal is still shipping units, the D3 is supposed to ship at least a week before the A5, and ALL of those are going to hammer the total network hashrate on X11 coins dropping profitablilty a TON by the time the first batch of all 4 of the "large new" miners get shipped.

 I won't be shocked if DASH total network hashrate is 10 TIMES the "right now" figure by early November.



 With that said, as long as DASH price doesn't collapse all of these miners should have a good chance to pay themselves off, IF you get in early enough.

I put an order for 3 in right after they came out, but still havent received any email.

i get first sep 15-25 batch and was open now sold out

I can see in this chart that the dash mining difficulty doubled only during the last month.
https://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/dash-difficulty-chart

And that's without these super powerful beasts in the market. So how possible it is the difficulty will follow this trend and by the time we get the A5 the difficulty will be 8x - 16x higher than now? Which would mean the profitability will be lower by the same multiple? Is that a viable scenario?

Wish you all the best

Too many variables, impossible to guess.
At least Baikal, Innosilicon, PinIdea, iBeLink and Bitmain are in this X11 miner game.
And we don't know their miner batch quantities.

This said, I still went ahead earlier and was lucky enough to buy one Antminer D3 in time.


edit:
Thanks.

I've been trying to wrap my head around figuring a trajectory for difficulty in order to realistically calculate the ROI for these boxes IF they can do what Inno claims they can.  That's a tough problem to solve since we have no idea how many they're making in the first batch, or how many Antminer D3's have been sold in their first batch (and possibly 2nd) that will drive up difficulty. 

Any theories on what should be expected given current difficulty?

That calculation will be wrong by the time these miners arrive, because network difficulty will rise a lot.

Guys, I'm probably missing something about the ROI. You're saying the return of the investment ($10k) is going to be over a year?

When I put the numbers into the calculator here:
https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/dash?HashingPower=30&HashingUnit=GH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=750&CostPerkWh=0.33

the calculator says it should make $15.4k a month. Which makes the investment return in less than a month. It indeed sounds too good to be true. What am I missing? I'm seriously considering buying this stuff but I'm not an experienced miner yet.

Thanks

as usual we pay for the dev fase but don't necessarily get roi that reflects that

4.22 BTC or $9999. Bit pricey, considering the difficulty when these hit the market. 10 Oct now. I would consider that price if they could deliver it now.

I see they also changed the minimum order now to 1. People have probably done their sums and the ROI will be likely a year, putting people off.

We will see what happens nearer the time of delivery, hopefully they have realized they have priced it slightly too high and come down. I think the $7000 mark is fair. Plus, with bitcoin today at $2800 you'll be paying $11816, they need to sort that out too.

Wow what a great formula, take customer money and then build something

We saw in the past that what the chip will do by itself has no bearing on what it will do in a board with other chips.  So if they are at the chip testing phase only then there may still be some surprises.  We won't know what the specs will be like until they have that first board build and then that first miner built and burning in.  

Depending on who is doing this packaging and integration for them they can turn this around faster than I thought they could from what they told us with the A4's.  However when there are hold ups with who ever is doing that for them that is when we saw the delays.  

i asked them in skype do they have footage of these stated hashrates and this was their reply

"The chip has passed the verification and the machine is on the way"

so from that i gather they have got not real proof of the miner being able to perform what they stated if they have just tested the "chip"

Yeah.
Bitfury demonstrated their new 16nm BTC ASIC chip performance in multiple Youtube videos before there was any actual miner.
(side note: Not that those are easy to buy, BlockBoxes need big ass capital and 3rd party miners (like Hotmine) are not so easy to buy either.)

See this for example for what I mean https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zPpj1JYw38

Thanks, i am just trying to share what i i understand.