There seems to be a lot of speculation about impending difficulty increases, which made me start to wonder...
Would it be possible to look back at the data for various coins/miner releases and come up with some generic assumptions/ballpark figures about the likelihood of a given difficulty increase?
Obviously currency value fluctuations (which directly affect ROI) are not predictable, but there could be some other variables that are calculable, i.e. the "drop-out rate" of older/lower hash rate miners, or the number of units released per batch per company.
Maybe looking at the data cumulatively would offer some insights/guidelines.
I assume the big mining farms already do this type of analysis and I think it would be useful for the little guys do the same in order to level the playing field a bit.
ps- first post ever, please be gentle
There is just no realistic way to do this. If you go back historically and look at a chart you would have to know how many miners came online at a given time, what was the capability of that miner to even get a wild guess as to the impact of just one manufacturers miners coming online.
Now suddenly you have several miner manufacturers launching MEGA size miners all on the network at once? The first onslaught will start here in the next couple of weeks when the first huge batches of the iBelinks hit the network. Again we don't know how many miners are in this first bunch of batches so hard judge what you are going to get.
Now add Baikal, Bitmain, and Innosilicon to the mix and frankly this is a free for all of massive scale. Any numbers you see right now or can produce are purely a WILD guess, but rest assured in about 60-90 days you will see profitability collapse and will only be profitable for a short while for those who obtained these miners in the first batches. It will look pretty sweet to those who were in that first batch of iBelink miners I think, or even the Giant+ miners for a little bit, but if you watch the diff go straight off the chart those pie in the sky numbers that everyone is drooling over will vanish pretty quick.
I think this is one of the oddest things for newbies and even some old timers to get is how difficulty impacts earnings, and when you have an all out assault on X11 like this it is going to be nothing short of mind boggling. It is an arms race right now for X11 miners. Sit back, grab the popcorn because your about to get the definition of UGLY with this diff increase.