It seems to me as if 2 bounces are enough, but sometimes 3 bounces happen, before a real take off happens. So i imagine that the time between the bounces were like half year, we will see a big crash again in the spring of 2016, following the real takeoff in the summer 2016.
Note that the next technical takeoff of summer 2016, is also coinciding with the 2016 halving of bitcoin from 25 to 12.5 btc/block.
So my prediction/opinion is that, until next summer we wont see a major takeoff.
You only see what your eyes want to see. But I see that Bitcoin is still on the decline long-term
That is a logarithmic chart, not a linear. The support coincides with the resistance of may 2013, when bitcoin started taking off.
So the bubble started, now the bubble ended, at the same price ranges.
If it were a head & shoulders formation, then the bubble would have popped a long time ago. I just think the bitcoin price & value have met, and this is why bitcoin's price wont really go below 200$ in my view.
And if this price level holds, then the 2016 halving will finally push the price to the moon again.
Even logarithmic chart won't turn lower lows into higher highs. I don't mean to say that technical analysis can be useful, but in the case of Bitcoin it is even more useless than it is useless overall (just like some infinity can be greater than another)...
You do know that in a log chart the scales are not uniform?
So where you drawed your lines implies that bitcoin would crash to ~ 10$ which is absurd.
I illustrated in log chart that bitcoin is still in a long term uptrend. It was in bubble phase from 2013 janurary, up until 2014 january.
Then the price went downtrend , and if the value of it would have not raised since then then we would have gone back to 2013 levels.
However, until the price was in disconnection with reality, the value have quickly caught up, the 100,000+ bitcoin merchants and so forth.
The bubble pop have ended right at the first crash of 150$ @ 2015 january, and since then we are in a flat market that is certainly not going lower since the down pressure have already faded.
And it needs a catalyst to start moving back up, which I think will be the 2016 halving. So until then we will probably have a flat market.