Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 21. (Read 14627 times)

While MOST exchanges report fake volume, it doesn't mean the most of the volume is fake, according to study/audit https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-nysearca-2019-01/srnysearca201901-5164833-183434.pdf , we know that at least the following 10 exchanges provide accurate volume

Binance > 536,016 BTC
Bitfinex >8,556 BTC
Kraken >19,765 BTC
Bitstamp > 12,929 BTC
Coinbase > 26,752 BTC
Bitflyer > 7,079 BTC
Gemini > 1,473 BTC
Itbit > 608.75 BTC
Bittrex > 3,142 BTC
Poloniex >5,089 BTC

Total = 621,410 BTC average last 24 hours volume.

Notice that volume is in BTC not USD, in USD it's about 6 Billion, and this ignores every other exchange ( a few hundreds of them) and based on the assumption that 100% of the other volume is fake, which we all know is not the case, mind you the last 24hrs volume has been pretty low, so in many days we do actually hit 40B probably only out of these 10 exchanges.

Trading volume matters, in fact, ask yourself, if not for Tether and all these exchanges, would bitcoin ever go past $100? certainly not, you can't count on OTC markets and a few nerds exchanging bitcoin for some pizzas and a few perks of certain online games, these global trading platforms are the reason why bitcoin is worth this much, in fact even the majority of bitcoin transactions go throw exchanges, people trade bitcoin more than they actually use it, on the grand scheme of things, the use of bitcoin as a payment method is close to nothing, this is the same thing with gold or any other asset, it gains the most of its the volume from trading, not by sitting in a cold wallet doing nothing, its a sad thing but that's reality, you know it is when a whale places a huge short order of bitcoin he doesn't even own, selling/shorting an imaginary future contract that can take bitcoin 30% down in a few minutes, and the same thing happens on the way up for obvious reasons, long story short, trading volume DOES matter.

fees are not going up  as much as reward is dropping.

this discourages mining growth.

that discourages mining sales.

so the mining/asic building sector becomes more detached from price influence .

the trading and exchange fully drive price (not yet but they will)

think what you can do with 100 to one leverage trades based on fake tokens.

twice as much influence  as you could before the ½ ing since 1800 coins entered.

here is another way to look at it we have 120eh   well more or less.

pretend it is 100eh online make it all s17 pros 50th at 1200 bucks.

20             units =        1 ph worth             24,000
200           units =      10 ph worth            240,000
2,000        units =    100 ph worth          2,400,000
20,000      units =         1   eh worth     24,000,000
200,000    units =       10  eh worth    240,000,000
2,000,000 units =      100 eh worth  2,400,000,000  so this is earning 900 coins day 8,550,000 usd x 365 = 3,120,750,000  a year minus power

it will burn about 38,690,000,000 kwatts that is 1,160,700,000 power cost if the gear is at 3 cents.

I am being really generous saying we have 100eh active gear all at  3 cent power cost.

which nets to 3.12 billion - 1.16 billion or just under 2 billion in profit for owning 2.4 billion in miners not counting help not counting infrastructure.

what we have is a disincentive for mining to happen and one of the weakest times ever for mining.

But my thoughts could be wrong.  Nothing like a bull run to 15k would not fix.

I would like to ask a similar question on this board, but I found this topic active, so What is the effect of halving on increasing price volatility (not only the bull market)?

In previous halvings, the increase in demand had a direct impact on prices.
Unfortunately, most of the reserves that can affect the supply come from the platforms (the mining sector will earn about 33% less BTC than the cryptocurrency exchange market,) which makes them the main controllers in the price, and therefore we may see more volatility since it is the preferred method for those platforms to store more currencies.

Don't forget the endless printing of stable coins and fake volumes.
In short, mining (halving) did not have a fundamental effect on driving price.

References:

 - https://chain.info/richlist
 - https://chain.info/exchanges

Again, I am lost. Why does trade volume to total market cap matter? Does anyone think that 41 Billion in trade vol happened yesterday? Its fake vol + bots rapid trading back and forth. It certainly isnt $41 billion worth of coin offered up to "please buy it from me" vs. whatever new demand may come online.

The fact that fees are going up per block + the value of BTC is rising means that fees are becoming more valuable to miners. Right? How is that a bad thing?

How are you calculating fees in these equations? I'm sorry I don't follow.

when we were at 50 coins the average tx fee per block was about 0.05 coins. that is 1000 to 1  reward to fees.

we are at 6.25 coins a block. the average tx fee per block is 0.9 reward to fees that is 6.94       reward to fees ratio.

this is going to break down the mining cost per coin and separate it from the actual value of a coin.

much like a diamond in the rough is very cheap compared to a diamond on the finger.

yesterday. we mined say 900 coins add that to the 18,000,000 coins

value is  900 x 9500          =           8,550,000
value is 18,000,000 x 9500 = 171,000,000,000

how much was traded yesterday

https://coinmarketcap.com/

coin value
$174,071,693,762

market volume
$41,308,200,575

that is about 22%

or

41,308,200,575 / 8,550,000 =.

4831 to 1.  trade volume to mined volume

this is going to change for the worse with every 1/2 ing.

Research studies indicate that only about 3 million of the total supply is actual for sale on the exchanges. In a year we will have cut the equivalent of 10% of that in new emissions or over 300k less coins annually.  Also, in USD terms this halving reduction value is around 8x greater than in 2016.

The biggest demand driver is that people don't sale. A certain % of new coiners become holders. The supply that remains in cold storage wallets and never moves is now higher than ever before.

Most of the "volume" on exchange is A. Fake B. Bots trading the same micro fractions of coins back and forth. There isn't much on the open market. And funds such as Greyscale and others grow at a rate now that pretty much eats the entirety of new supply.

Halving doesn't have an immediate effect. It has a compounding effect. The bid/ask of any given period is roughly 50/50.  Over a year a 10% reduction in expected supply (to actual available coins) can offset that equilibrium substantially. But it only takes a little bit, because a little bit tilted in one direction causes slow steady movement in that direction.  We've seen in bitcoin the power of narrative, and a slow steady rise creates a positive feedback loop that slowly ushers in more and more demand until we cycle up into huge overbought bubbles. Of course people always try to find another reason such as "the willy bot" or "tether printing." But its actually just simple supply demand economics and greed.

You can't price this in, because of the way it just slowly compounds. And the fact that its less coins % each halving is offset by the fact that its several times more in $$value.


How are you calculating fees in these equations? I'm sorry I don't follow.

That would be true if BTC wasn't being traded on exchanges in form of futures and spot orders the way it is now, we have a trading volume of 200k btc a day sometimes and that's pretty normal, how much did the halving cut down? 1800/2 = 900BTC a day , what is 900 BTC vs 200,000 BTC in volume? almost nothing.

Another way to look at it is by taking the total supply in circulation, we have over 18 million of them ( some could have been lost but that doesn't matter, they are there and thus they can be spent)

So you are cutting 900 BTC a day, or 328,500 a year, when the supply, is 18m, that's a bit below 2%, so one could argue that the halving could give bitcoin 2% more fiat value a year if everything else is equal!

The halving is a great way of deflating the supply speed/rate, but it was not invented to magically take the price to higher levels the way most people think, in fact even if the halving got rid of 50% of the supply in circulation, with demand being constant, bitcoin would only double once, but bitcoin doesn't gain value because of the halving, if the market is going up, it will go up with or without the halving, the same thing will happen on the way down, the halving is more of a psychological event to most people than anything to do with the supply and demand.

In other words, almost nearly 90% of bitcoin max supply is already there, the effect of the remaining of 10% is pretty minimal, mathematically speaking, even if the remaining 10% were mined in the course of a month wouldn't make a huge difference in terms of price, I believe the way satoshi implemented this, is to keep the incentive for miners for long enough until the blockchain has matured and can survive on fees.

tx fees will stop being able to scale as well .

50 coins and 0.05 fees or less

25 coins and 0.075 coins or less

12.5 coins and 0.3 coins or less


6.25 coins and 0.9 coins or less


3.125 coins and 1.5 coins = i don't think so.


1.5625 coins and  2.5 coins not happening.

but I am pretty much a stupid moron according to some so what do I know.

Interesting take. I'd like to know what you think is different now vs. the last 12 years of btc. Because if nothings different, halving will have a compounding effect on supply to buy over time and assuming demand remains constant, we will see another multi year bull market.

I am not sure if this ½ ing will really start the detachment of mining cost from price cost.

The difference with say diamonds mining cost and price cost is more then 15 fold but a lot of factors are in-between a diamond in the ground and a diamond on a finger.

Once the btc is pulled out from the emptiness of cyberspace its a finished product.

I can see nothing but heart ache down the road for btc holders and miners I think the money will be made by exchanges and some traders.

While I always enjoy Phil's numerical analysis, I will add throw one small bit of sand in the gears. I think the projections are great in terms of difficulty and hash rate are likely more accurate than the price of BTC. My personal feeling is that the $10,000 BTC price is a kind of "resistance" barrier from a human perspective. I expect that there is a much larger set of people that are willing to sell BTC at $10,001 than at $9999.

Kinda like why things are priced at XXX.95 and not XXX+1.

we are 11 blocks behind 'normal' pace

at block 1008 of this jump which was the ½ ing block 630000 we were at +53 blocks

so we dropped 64 blocks from block 1008 to block 1366

those 358 blocks should have been 358+64 = 422

so 358/422 - 1 = -15.1% if we do this till the end of the 2016 epoch

we will be -10% for this jump

and coins will be up maybe 10%  so 20% in favor of miners  and the ½ ing is a 50% loss.

so maybe we drop 10% again. next jump

so our 16.1 does 14.5 then 13.1  maybe price finally shifts about 10.5k.

so a diff of 13.1 with a price of 10.5k on June 5th is my hope.

The s17e was $896 this morning. It was the T17+ thats 943.

- 0.0527%.

so. from block 1008. we were at +53

block 1353 we are -1

so we did 345. and should have done 399

thus 345/399 -1 = -13.53%. since the 1/2 ing

price is 9650 it was 8500 at  1/2 ing   so 9650/8500 = +13.5%

some value is back


bitmain drops

s19pro from  2663 to 2493
s19      from  1946 to 1868
s17e     from   896 to   851      look for a second price drop.   corrected thanks to mark

You just have to love bitcoin and all the things related to it, the unpredictability is simply awesome   #mikeywith came with a damn good explanation, we won't be seeing a massive shutdown overnight, it makes so much sense, it's not like energy contracts, rent, colocation hosting are all going to expire exactly on the 12 or 13. It would make a bit of sense on the 15 if any, but as always, just when we have a logical supposition.....this happens:


https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2020-05-13%2007:25:23..2020-05-14%2007:25:23)#

That's a -25% drop in mined vs expected blocks, and the difficulty estimation is just 0.07% away to go negative.

we are dropping harder now .

before 1/2 ing we were plus 53 blocks we are now plus 11-13

so,we dropped 40 blocks in 2 days.

124/144 = 86% thats 14%

we have 809 blocks to go.

a 14% drop is about 109 block short fall.

so 109-11 = 98

so it projects to

1918/2016

that is close to -5% this jump.  which means we need about 14250 price to be even if we mine.

does not mean much.  but a -5%. and then a neg 15% will help.  along with coins pushing to 10500.

so a diff.    of 15.2.    may 18-19
then a diff of. 13.0.     june 4-5

That is true in regards to the actual difficulty adjustment, but we are discussing something slightly different, the fact that the "base" of finding blocks isn't declining indicates hashrate has not left the network, and thus it won't be more than 14 days for the adjustment,

However, now I can see a slight drop in the speed of finding blocks, unfortunately with 1290 blocks have already been mined, this small drop won't really cause any drop in difficulty for the next epoch.

Last year the ltc ½ ing took more then 30 days to drop the diff.

July 17 2019 the diff was 16.44 M = peak

Aug 14 2019 the diff was 13.44
Sept 17 2019 the diff was 10.90
Oct   15 2019 the diff was 9.41
Nov  19 2019 the diff was 6.13

Dec 20 2019 the dif was   4.72  M = low

all info was found here:

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/litecoin-difficulty.html#1y

many power contracts end:

on May 31
or June 30

so drops will follow.  price needs to be 15000 to negate the ½ ing for us miners.

One small thing to remember: Difficulty falls more slowly than it rises. Since the epoch is always 2016 blocks, if it comes in at less than 14 days, difficulty rises, If it takes longer than 14 days, then difficulty falls. What this means is that a larger decline will take longer to actually realize.

No big change in BTC price: $9102