Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value - page 9.

manfred

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Energy is Wealth

Quote from: americanpegasus on August 22, 2015, 04:26:17 PM

Quote from: Trolololo on April 24, 2015, 06:32:50 AM

Please, Sirs, let's keep this thread clean.

There are other threads to talk about Risto or/and Monero or/and any altcoin vs bitcoin.

Thank you.

Trolololo, I don't know if you know me or not, but I'm a big fan. How much of a donation would it require to get you to create a chart like this for Monero? (even though I know we only have a year of history to go off of)

As i sad before the past does not tell the future.

manfred

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Energy is Wealth

To have different starting dates on one forecast chart does not work. So here is a fix. Not that is really meaningful. The other issue is the missing early data for bitcoin, it is needed so i started a one cent.

and

macsga

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Strange, yet attractive.

^^
Those predictions have only got a meaning when you actually have witnessed the periodic phenomenon. Log fit curves tend to produce enormous error factors when you attempt to go for a long term prediction. I too believe though we're en route for greater and bolder prices.

Pente

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Quote from: manfred on September 09, 2015, 06:27:22 AM

Forecasting is totally useless. Based on currently available date you get this result by 2020

The past will not tell you the future

I wouldn't say that chart is worthless. The power regression formula makes the most sense to me and I expect (90% confidence) BTC to break $1000 again before 2020.

manfred

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Energy is Wealth

Forecasting is totally useless. Based on currently available date you get this result by 2020

The past will not tell you the future

mskryxz

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bump interested in an update as well

thanks for your work it is much appreciated

mmortal03

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Quote from: smoothie on September 06, 2015, 05:21:23 PM

Quote from: smoothie on August 23, 2015, 01:19:37 PM

Requesting updated chart since last one did in May 2015.

two weeks went by and no response?

Is this thread still alive?

Maybe just PM Trolololo and ask him directly. He seems to still be active here.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: smoothie on August 23, 2015, 01:19:37 PM

Requesting updated chart since last one did in May 2015.

two weeks went by and no response?

Is this thread still alive?

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Requesting updated chart since last one did in May 2015.

Wexlike

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Do you really want to see a chart that mostly points down ?

americanpegasus

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Quote from: Trolololo on April 24, 2015, 06:32:50 AM

Please, Sirs, let's keep this thread clean.

There are other threads to talk about Risto or/and Monero or/and any altcoin vs bitcoin.

Thank you.

Trolololo, I don't know if you know me or not, but I'm a big fan. How much of a donation would it require to get you to create a chart like this for Monero? (even though I know we only have a year of history to go off of)

mmortal03

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Quote from: lordoliver on June 26, 2015, 04:48:31 AM

Cool chart, but the bitcoin price just overwhelms it. The trend lines look practically identical to what I've drawn on my own long term chart, priced in USD.

lordoliver

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expect(brain).toHaveBeenUsed()

Quote from: Trolololo on July 01, 2015, 06:33:43 AM

Hi, Lord Oliver

1.- The resulting parameters would be almost identical. Dollar and gold relationship is very stable compared to bitcoin...

2.- The logarithmic function is quite nice for a medium term horizon (1 or 2 years from now) and it's much better than the linear one.
But it's not as accurate in the long term. As I have stated in former posts, I would prefer an asymptotic function for the long term.

Regards.

Yes I know, that its kind of stable compared to bitcoin, but still it defuses a little the spike in 2011 for example. That may make your graphs of the early years a little less diverge.
The only problem with gold is, that its price is manipulated. It would normally (and does sometimes, if manipulation failes) follow the bitcoin spikes a little as the bitcoin price is also (of course minor but still) driven by bad economy.

Trolololo

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Hi, Lord Oliver

1.- The resulting parameters would be almost identical. Dollar and gold relationship is very stable compared to bitcoin...

2.- The logarithmic function is quite nice for a medium term horizon (1 or 2 years from now) and it's much better than the linear one.
But it's not as accurate in the long term. As I have stated in former posts, I would prefer an asymptotic function for the long term.

Regards.

photon_coin

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Photon --- The First Child Of Blake Coin --Merged

lots of detail in this analysis

jones techbit

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I think I saw a infographic somewhere stating for BTC to be 1% of the world economy, it would have to be priced around $10,000 for 1 bitcoin.

lordoliver

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expect(brain).toHaveBeenUsed()

Hi Trolololo,

I love your graphs and I think they are a good estimation. Thank you.
I just think, that there are some wrong assumptions.

1. The price is depending on the dollar. That means, that the fed printing money or stopping can change that. In the worst case they can for example move a lot of money of the market and let everything dive into worst deflation. That could change the graph completely and turn it maybe upside down. I suggest to use GOLD as comparision currency. Can you use the graph estimation depending on ounces or grams of gold? I guess it could be a little more stable as well.

2. I don't think that the function is accurate for long term. With the dollar it may look like the right one an may also look like that later if the fed is continuing to ease. If you switch to gold you need definitely a function with a supremum. If the adaption is complete bitcoin shouldn't change much any more to gold...

regards
Oliver

Trolololo

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Here is a chart showing the evolution of the logarithmic regression curve:

Donations: bitcoin:1vrqMEKzTWWGcuRiTG3WGSnpztTvs1KLh

mmortal03

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Thanks for the update!

Trolololo

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Hello everybody.

Here is the update (two and a half months since the last one):

Donations: bitcoin:1GVyRMXFaSEbXUCMwZKk3CfXgo8wCmympC

Today's price of 235 USD/BTC is 81% undervalued from the estimated value of 1234 USD/BTC

You can calculate today's trendline value HERE.

Projected (dd-mm-yyyy):
   1.000 22-03-2015 (former update projected 17-01-2015)
   10.000 25-07-2017 (former update projected 10-04-2017)
   100.000 17-10-2020 (former update projected 30-04-2020)
1.000.000 30-03-2025 (former update projected 08-07-2024)

Thank you all for your donations.

Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value - page 9. (Read 117753 times)