Chart update!!
Thanks so much man!
Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value - page 8. (Read 117628 times)
January 11, 2017, 02:10:50 PM
January 10, 2017, 09:24:12 PM
Chart update!!
Typo on the chart, should say January 3rd *2017*.
January 10, 2017, 12:54:42 PM
Thanks for the update!
January 10, 2017, 07:49:28 AM
Could u update Trolololo? 
Chart update!!
Today's theoretical value (check HERE) is around 2100 USD, so the price is half undervalued.
Please, consider donating to bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe
December 19, 2016, 04:47:46 PM
Could u update Trolololo?
Hello all, I'd like to share my previous chart on tradingview
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/VKWhgBho-Cup-and-handle-pattern-for-Bitcoin/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/VKWhgBho-Cup-and-handle-pattern-for-Bitcoin/
Thanks for the chart, but... what's their relation with the topic of this thread?
If you take a look to the previous messages you'll notice that people is discussing about the @Trolololo bitcoin logarithmic graphics.
You can share your TA in other threads like:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wall-observer-btcusd-bitcoin-price-movement-tracking-discussion-178336
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/analysis-274613
Any updates
I have to ask again. Why do you think this kind of graph is fitting? Does it have any similarities to other commodities/currencies/assets?
For example gold long term, dow jones long term, any stock, nothing is fitting in there...
For example gold long term, dow jones long term, any stock, nothing is fitting in there...
Donated. Thanks!
Nice update!
I got so excited when I saw regression - I was thinking the whole statistical deal: Adjusted R^2, parameter selection, maybe even a bit of time series modelling. 
I mean, best fit curves are useful, but I wouldn't call it regression per se. I'm not a professional though.
I mean, best fit curves are useful, but I wouldn't call it regression per se. I'm not a professional though.
14 April 2016 update:
R2= 0.900263
a = 2.84737734739566
b = -19.2400124152881
The price today (424 USD/BTC) is 74% undervalued from its Log regression expected value (1607 USD/BCT, calculated HERE)
I will upload chart asap.
R2= 0.900263
a = 2.84737734739566
b = -19.2400124152881
The price today (424 USD/BTC) is 74% undervalued from its Log regression expected value (1607 USD/BCT, calculated HERE)
I will upload chart asap.
February 29, 2016, 01:11:27 AM
Well the answer is obviously not quite exponential, but a (n * log(n)) trendline, or a Modified Metcalfe Line.
Also, how can I generate those gorgeous Monero price charts like you did? The price per USD has moved up and I think it would be interesting to show.
Also, how can I generate those gorgeous Monero price charts like you did? The price per USD has moved up and I think it would be interesting to show.
December 13, 2015, 03:32:09 PM
To have different starting dates on one forecast chart does not work. So here is a fix. Not that is really meaningful. The other issue is the missing early data for bitcoin, it is needed so i started a one cent.
Who's to say that starting the bitcoin price at one cent is meaningful?
although I think the idea is good, the numbers seem off by a lot.
I don't think bitcoin will stay at or below $1000 for that long.
based on this chart, it would seem bitcoin would stay around $1000 far into 2020, which is completely ridiculous.
Yeah, we're above both of those trend lines right now. Maybe the exponential line is closer to the truth.
November 03, 2015, 10:49:41 PM
To have different starting dates on one forecast chart does not work. So here is a fix. Not that is really meaningful. The other issue is the missing early data for bitcoin, it is needed so i started a one cent.
Who's to say that starting the bitcoin price at one cent is meaningful?
although I think the idea is good, the numbers seem off by a lot.
I don't think bitcoin will stay at or below $1000 for that long.
based on this chart, it would seem bitcoin would stay around $1000 far into 2020, which is completely ridiculous.
November 03, 2015, 08:52:25 PM
To have different starting dates on one forecast chart does not work. So here is a fix. Not that is really meaningful. The other issue is the missing early data for bitcoin, it is needed so i started a one cent.
Who's to say that starting the bitcoin price at one cent is meaningful?
September 18, 2015, 05:11:08 AM
Please, Sirs, let's keep this thread clean.
There are other threads to talk about Risto or/and Monero or/and any altcoin vs bitcoin.
Thank you.
There are other threads to talk about Risto or/and Monero or/and any altcoin vs bitcoin.
Thank you.
Trolololo, I don't know if you know me or not, but I'm a big fan. How much of a donation would it require to get you to create a chart like this for Monero? (even though I know we only have a year of history to go off of)
As i sad before the past does not tell the future.
Interesting graphic, thank you manfred. However, as you already said it is not very reliable due to the fact, that this graphic shows only a very short period of time compared to the graphics that show the regression models of btc and ltc. From my point of view a model which compares the early stages of btc, ltc and xmr would be more informative, although one always have to keep in mind, that btc was the first cryptocurrency which had probably more influence and fans in the beginning and nowadays there are a lot of altcoins available on the market. Furthermore, the price level of btc on the market has influence on the price level of all other coins since they are mutually dependent (kind of, if you ignore trades from real money to cryptocurrencies). Creating a regression model that consideres all these problems is kind of impossible I think.
September 11, 2015, 05:48:58 PM
Thanks for the updates @manfred, it's always interesting to see new graphics. Glad to see this thread updated again
ping @Trolololo
ping @Trolololo
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