Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value - page 5.

Bloomie

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Quote from: alexf2017 on January 20, 2018, 12:56:27 PM

Some fantasies about the future Grin

:

https://s9.postimg.org/rl7bkqa3z/kr_DJEnf_Ej_ZLk2p_1.jpg

https://s9.postimg.org/rl7bkqa3z/kr_DJEnf_Ej_ZLk2p_1.jpg

You actually think we'll still be at 10k in 2021? Doubtful.

mithrim

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Activity: 434

Merit: 436

Quote from: alexf2017 on January 20, 2018, 12:56:27 PM

Some fantasies about the future Grin

:

https://s9.postimg.org/rl7bkqa3z/kr_DJEnf_Ej_ZLk2p_1.jpg

I like your train of thought Cool

Although, we need to keep in mind that while this might be nice to look at, if there comes the time when BTC swings from 100k to 20k, oh boy, that this will result in carnage on the streets Cheesy

alexf2017

newbie

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Some fantasies about the future Grin

:

https://s9.postimg.org/rl7bkqa3z/kr_DJEnf_Ej_ZLk2p_1.jpg

https://s9.postimg.org/rl7bkqa3z/kr_DJEnf_Ej_ZLk2p_1.jpg

Biodom

legendary

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a large deviation from the original graph.
maybe it is still a true exponent a la BETI.

mmortal03

legendary

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TenshiS' chart, updated:

mmortal03

legendary

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Someone else made this one:

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7qrs3y/bitcoin_headed_to_100000_in_2018_says_analyst_who/dssdrum/

harvw

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Any update on this?

mmortal03

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Quote from: olumyd on January 05, 2018, 04:22:11 AM

Is there an altcoin version. Will like to do a comparative analysis to see if FUD and FOMO have quantitative measures on the market assays.

"Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression"

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/total-marketcap-all-coins-logarithmic-regression-2000218

bitbunnny

legendary

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WOLF.BET - Provably Fair Crypto Casino

This chart could only represent some guidelines not something you should stick to and expect the trends will be exactly like this.
Also without update this isn't worth so new values should be filled all the time.
Don't be disappointed when this will not help you to actualy predict the values.

olumyd

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Is there an altcoin version. Will like to do a comparative analysis to see if FUD and FOMO have quantitative measures on the market assays.

mattbellme

member

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Does anyone know how to set this up in excel? Would love to have my own version to play with...

wwzsocki

legendary

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Is there an updated version of this chart?

I have tried to update this chart in but looks bad and I will not post here. I am not sure of my accuracy but looks like (on updated chart) that we are High (when the price touched 20000$ Bitcoin was 800% oversold) and now we see a correction back to trend line.

I don't want to scare anybody but if this goes back to trend line we will see price back at 7000$.

Good for me I will just wait and buy.

btcone111

full member

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Quote from: Phil_S on December 19, 2017, 08:25:34 AM

The thing is, when the actual graph is jumping all over the place, up and down, it's inevitable that it will intersect a smooth red line a few times. Every time it happens, you can call it amazing, but... you know...

Yeh this is problem of rate of reversion. If serious, someone has to estimate the reversion parameter to test that it has't' changed. if successful, then the model is more convincing.

Phil_S

legendary

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We choose to go to the moon

The thing is, when the actual graph is jumping all over the place, up and down, it's inevitable that it will intersect a smooth red line a few times. Every time it happens, you can call it amazing, but... you know...

Torque

legendary

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Chart is not as useful without a current update.

Lancusters

sr. member

Activity: 630

Merit: 263

It is impossible for the graphs to see the pattern in the behavior of bitcoin. In 2012 and 2014, we see great failures. I am sure that they were made possible by the speculators. They have seen great prospects of bitcoin and has made a decline in prices to buy up all the coins. Few who held their assets at the time. Is it possible to repeat this? Maybe, but right now the underlying asset is concentrated in their hands. Why would they reduce the price to assemble a small number of coins? They will continuously raise the price until sell all your stocks.

jeunpeun99

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Quote from: slowlyslowly on December 18, 2017, 04:08:30 PM

Quote from: jeunpeun99 on December 18, 2017, 03:08:12 PM

to the people saying it is quite impressive and such.
According to the graph, the price of one bitcoin would be around $ 4000 not $ 16000.

Why are you picking on the chart? It is simply a chart based on the past. It is very apolitical in that sense. Yes the expected price is far from the current price but we all know even by bitcoin standard there is massive pumping going on so we may soon be much closer to the expected value. And the spread info gives the reader some feeling of how far up or down the price might be from a middle path. Leave the chart in peace.

Im sorry, I didn't want to pick on the chart. I just wanted to let people now that the expected value would be lower than it is now.

slowlyslowly

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Quote from: jeunpeun99 on December 18, 2017, 03:08:12 PM

to the people saying it is quite impressive and such.
According to the graph, the price of one bitcoin would be around $ 4000 not $ 16000.

Why are you picking on the chart? It is simply a chart based on the past. It is very apolitical in that sense. Yes the expected price is far from the current price but we all know even by bitcoin standard there is massive pumping going on so we may soon be much closer to the expected value. And the spread info gives the reader some feeling of how far up or down the price might be from a middle path. Leave the chart in peace.

jeunpeun99

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

to the people saying it is quite impressive and such.
According to the graph, the price of one bitcoin would be around $ 4000 not $ 16000.

mithrim

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 436

Quote from: Trolololo on October 22, 2014, 01:47:44 PM

In this OP I will always post the last updated chart:

Update 2017-01-03:

Donations: bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe

Calculate today's trendline value HERE

Are there any updates coming this year/next year? It's quite impressive and it would be sad to have it discontinued Undecided

Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value - page 5. (Read 117628 times)