Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value - page 4. (Read 117628 times)

linear scale = bullshit

The true is that s*it knows what is going to happen. All that charts won't help you so much. It can be invalidated very quickly and you will have a bunch of new charts. You can view and say about the market movements only retrospectively.

1) Chart updated:

https://postimg.org/image/dmr2xq5np/

https://s18.postimg.org/66rtbxhyf/btcusd-09mar2018-3.jpg

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Additional Information:

2) BTC/USD chart

https://postimg.org/image/9vcwy4kqd/

https://s18.postimg.org/eu0fcnojd/btcusd-wisdom09mar2018.jpg

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3) S&P 500 chart

https://postimg.org/image/a84b4d0g5/

https://s18.postimg.org/eu0fcplzd/sp500usd-09mar2018.jpg

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4) Fear Index

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

https://postimg.org/image/dqgb0ogqt/

https://s18.postimg.org/fi99vl03t/MAj_Qw8_H4boq_M2e_1.jpg

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5) Buffet sits in cash! ))

http://www.newsweek.com/warren-buffet-says-berkshire-hathaway-has-unique-problem-too-much-cash-819062

https://postimg.org/image/ddowueyg5/

https://s18.postimg.org/6zztr5tk9/z_ANJLqf_BMy_Wq_A9_1.jpg

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All can I see - Big Short is coming  

I wouldn't give his predictions much credence. It looks like his predictions on SegWit were wrong, and he believes that BCH is the real Bitcoin.

Amazing @anonymint's analysis:
https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019

discussed here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-to-15k-in-march-85k-by-june-then-30k-by-q12019-3057203

Great post, code bear.

I agree that I don't see a long bearish trend coming in the next months.

Definitely don't think it's gonna get longer and longer bear markets. That analysis only makes sense because of the Mt. Gox crash. You take out the hack of Mt. Gox and it all falls apart. That was a singular event in Bitcoin's history, not the trend of what has happened. Very unlikely Bitcoin isn't above $20k this year, I'd expect it to happen this summer. We're already about double from the bottom of the crash. When it doubles again it'll be at ATH. Sure it'll take a bunch of choppy months to get there but no way it takes years, unlikely to even take one year. Look at the crashed that didn't involve Mt. Gox to get an idea of Bitcoin's pattern instead of just focusing on that single event, it was an outlier. If Coinbase is ransacked and goes out of business then yea sure what you say might happen, but that again relies on one singularly important catastrophic event happening, not the overall trend of Bitcoin.

If anything I think bull markets will become longer and more gradual. The last boom phase was basically May - December, that's 7-8 months, and only in the last month and a half of that did it enter mania phase. I think we'll see longer "boom phases" in which the price is increasing steadily to ATH followed by quick mania phases like we just had the precede crashes. The thing is the only thing we lose from the crash was the mania phase, all the gains from the relatively gradual buildup from May through October remained even at the bottom of the market a month ago. That's real adoption that occurred, only the mania phase got erased temporarily. Real adoption will continue to occur and as adoption spreads these phases will last longer and the network becomes more diverse therefore stronger against crashes making long crashes even less likely.

This down period from the ATH might last 6+ months, but the next phase of real adoption might last until Spring or Summer of 2019, and it might just double the price over that time followed by a mania phase that maybe pushes the price into the high 5-digits that then gets wiped out in late 2019 and sends the price back to $30k or so. And on and on this cycle continues.

Anyway it's all a guessing game, but when you take out Mt. Gox the trend is that down markets last 6-12 months generally, and Bitcoin already being up about 100% from the bottom of the market and we're only 2 and a half months removed from the start of the crash I think very much supports the idea that it will push to new ATHs by this summer.

Video with latest chart. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvQzjyhtjRg

It does to me as well, except when you ignore the price and look at the behavior around the logarithm fit. 

When I first heard about it, it was $12.  (friend buying on silk road)

Then I registered to buy on MtGox one day before it got hacked (funds had not been deposited yet) at $150

I started buying when it passed the price of gold ~ 1200 -- when I realized that was 100x what I first heard about it at, I knew normal price thinking doesn't apply....

Oh, and the Tulip mania lasted about a year

I don't know, 100k usd by the end of 2018 seems a lot to me. I will surely take profits if the time comes though.

I have updated the work previously performed by Trolololo back a few years ago.

Interestingly, the forecast almost falls in line with what McAfee has said.


https://ibb.co/i7BWo7

It's just a fantasies 

Fixed, updated 

https://s18.postimg.org/pttnx18nr/btcusd.jpg

https://s18.postimg.org/pttnx18nr/btcusd.jpg

Funny thing is that these predictions are working until they don't.
When environment is changing so will behavior of BTC. Old predictions then will be invalid.

Lol if this would be real anyone owning 1 bitcoin is a millionaire in 10 years time

It's 2018, not 2017 

My thought exactly! 
The market cap has much room to grow and once the recent dip has been accepted, there also could be a new wave because the cycles should be way shorter, now that media attention is a factor.

They are still studying in the school 

It'll be good times for shopping  will see...

This is also grossly how I see it.   Except that the arcs become wider and wider (longer and longer periods of down between the bubbles).  And look, we're heading for the next few years towards something like $3000, and the next bubble is maybe 5 or 6 years away.  The first one of size was in the summer of 2011.  The second one was at the end of 2013 (so 2-3 years).  The third one was at the end of 2017 (so 4 years).  This is why I think we're in for a bear period of a few years, down to a few $1000.  In 2014/2015, we went down a factor of 6.  In 2012, we went down a factor of about 10.  And then of course, there may be a last bubble.  Hard to say.  Once everyone has been burned once, where is the new army of greater fools ?