Could u update Trolololo? 
Chart update!!
Today's theoretical value (check HERE) is around 2100 USD, so the price is half undervalued.
Please, consider donating to bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe
Any update for Q4 2017?
Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value - page 7. (Read 117744 times)
November 22, 2017, 07:46:35 AM
Chart update!!
Today's theoretical value (check HERE) is around 2100 USD, so the price is half undervalued.
Please, consider donating to bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe
Any update for Q4 2017?
November 22, 2017, 03:53:38 AM
November 21, 2017, 05:42:44 PM
Nice work on the Charts, but in the end they will prove totally meaningless. At this point in time, technical analysis has no merit in the world of CryptoCurrencies. Take that from a person who has spent 50 years of his working life as a Technical Analyst.
November 20, 2017, 08:18:04 AM
November 08, 2017, 10:16:19 AM
Trolololo, here is the Vision (Road Map 2017-2028) of Bitcoin future. The key figures correlate to your chart. Thank You.
Taken from another topic.
Taken from another topic.
Quote
Suggested topic is devoted to discussion of Global Road Map of Bitcoin BTC
Based on following factors (I-IV) suggested for discussion is the Bitcoin Global Road Map (V).
I Number of active bitcoin wallets
According to Mr.Woo's http://woobull.com/woos-law-of-bitcoin-user-growth-bitcoins-adoption-curve/ research, bitcoin users double every 12 months. Mr. Woo makes corrections (S curve) based on real world human behaviour. Here comes wild idea that algorythms, based on mathematics and Laws of Universe are already changing real world human behaviour. Through smartphones, computers and gadgets they force us to move quicker to live more intense lives. They change us, attuning human schedule to Rythms of Universe, hence increasing people's efficiency.
II Halvings schedule (next is on June 12 2020) - recalculating of network difficulty
The network started on January 3 2009. First halving took place in 2012 which led to all time high of more than $1000 in November 2013. So, after halving bitcoin price can increase 10 fold. After next halving in 2016 we witnessed the power of third wave of bitcoin evolution in November 2017, when bitcoin rocketed to $7,900 and peaked $12,400 in Zimbabwe.
After next halving, which means that emission of bitcoin slows down and miners will be rewarded only 6.25 bitcoins (now 12.5) for one mined block. Which increases the cost of every mined coin. Because of the limited coins supply increases the price.
III Achievements of past 9 years of bitcoin existence
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/ 183 times Bitcoin could die. No other technology/product/startup is known that could survive under such huge pressure. That shows mathematical correctness of the protocol, flexibility and stability of Bitcoin Protocol. That means Bitcoin can evolutionate. It can change. Like a snake that gets rid of old skin, bitcoin is moving further, leaving its forks behind. Open to whole world's pressure, represented by banks, governments and financial institutions from outside and numerous challenges in form of soft and hard forks from inside, Bitcoin became capable to digest these pressures in the process of becoming holistic (i.e. indestructable) technology.
The Bitcoin Technology (Protocol) is so advanced and multifaced (combined knowlegde from Game Theory, Economics, Programming, Finance, Cryptography, Quantum Mechanics) that still there are only a few people who completely understand this technology. Since the Bitcoin building is so huge, some people see only separate floors of this building. Some see financial implications. Some see social implications. Some see that this technology can change the world completely - there will be no need in banks, governments, Systems. Some see the future of the technology in VR and IOT. Some call it digital gold. Some - digital currency. Some - digital assets. Probably we see birth of new class of asset, to which quite another approach should be taken by regulators. It is nither currency nor goods. It is all together, all kinds of assets represented in one digital form.
The Technology is self-balancing, coming to dynamic equilibrium from any internal or external impulse, be it soft/hard forks or governmental pressure/attacks, between 4-5 parties, such as Developers, Wallets (People interacting with this technology), Finance (financial institutions, institutional investors), Miners and IoT in the future (yes, the Robots). Bitcoins can be traded 24x7, time moves 20 times faster in the world of Bitcoin, which can accelerate growth of human economics.
IV Hello New World !!!!
Bitcoin technology gives you freedom. Independence. But it also has another side of the coin - Responsibility. Personal. You are responsible for your money and if you were not conscious building cryptocurrency portofolio you can loose your funds. If you transfer to wrong address, you can't undo. No banks can help. No insurance company. You bear all the risks.
That increases awareness. That leads to forming many people making decision to take their Fate into their own hands. To be independent from the governments and banks. To have their own opinion how to live their lives. That means new way of living. No borders. Decentralised education, stimulating people to think independently to make decisions by themselves. Probably there will be merging of old (centralized) and new (decentralized) approaches in the world. Decentralization (New World) offers Competition to old centralized world, which can lead to mutual growth in the dance of Evolution.
V Bitcoin Global Road Map
---------------------------1 Birth of Bitcoin---------------------------
2007 Bitcoin Design and Coding
2008 October - White paper published
---------------------------2 Bitcoin's childhood------------------------
2009 Year 1. January - genesis (first) block mined. Year 1 (started from October 31 2008)
2010 Year 2. Bitcoin exchanges and bitcoin exchange rate established
2011 Year 3. Satoshi Nakamoto leaves the project, as it became self-sustainable
2012 Year 4. First Halving.
2013 Year 5. November $1000 peak
2014 Year 6. Massive correction
2015 Year 7. Gaining stability
2016 Year 8. Second Halving. Segwit
2017 Year 9. Segwit 2x.
Around 0.2% of people (10-15 mln) using Bitcoin
80% of coins mined.
Global acceptance among institutional investors.
By the Year 10 (November and December 2017) all time high $7,900
---------------------------3 Sky (Bitcoin's adulthood )--------------------------
2018 Year 10. $14,000-$27,000 (Fifth wave by Elliot)
2019 Year 11. Technologies such as Lightning Network (momentary payments, no 10 min waiting) are implemented in
the second layer of Bitcoin protocol.
Next Segwit 3.
Around 1% of people using Bitcoin.
Massive correction (50%+)
2020 Year 12. Third Halving.
Around 2% of people using Bitcoin.
Recovery and movement to 6 digits.
2021 Year 13. Around 4% of people using Bitcoin.
This year we will see 6 digits.
$100,000 per Bitcoin
2022 Year 14. Around 7% of people using Bitcoin.
Consensus with banks and governments - they Must Change to Survive.
Bitcoin wons this competition and banks/governments are forced to demonopolize themselves and change
their Attitude - State is People's Servant. State has to Serve People.
2023 Year 15. Around 12% of people using Bitcoin
------------------------4 Space (Bitcoin's maturity) -------------------------------------
2024 Year 16. Fourth Halving?
Around 25% people using Bitcoin.
Blockchain technologies massively implemented
2025 Year 17. $1 Mln per bitcoin.
50%+ people using Bitcoin.
Bitcoin goes into Space (literally, to Mars).
Blockstream orbital sattelites broadcast bitcoin transactions worldwide and in the entire Solar System.
Technologies such as Atomic Swaps are implemented in top cryptocurrencies.
2026 Year 18. Segwit 4.
Massive correction.
2027 Year 19. Recovery.
2028 Year 20. Fifth Halving? 80%+ of people using Bitcoin.
Over $10 mln per bitcoin.
Irreversable changes (80 - 20 Law) in Human Society driven by Bitcoin technology.
Social changes.
Change in System of Values of Man.
------------------------- 5 Hello New World---------------------------------------------------
2032 Year 24. New generation (since 2012) is formed.
Total acceptance of bitcoin by all people.
Total death of fiat money.
With the evolution of AI possible human race economics growth up to 10 times.
$100 mln per bitcoin.
1 satoshi = 1 usd.
2,000 trillion dollar human race economics (now equals to 70 trillion dollars ) potential growth (AI, IOT,
Space industry etc.)
Based on following factors (I-IV) suggested for discussion is the Bitcoin Global Road Map (V).
I Number of active bitcoin wallets
According to Mr.Woo's http://woobull.com/woos-law-of-bitcoin-user-growth-bitcoins-adoption-curve/ research, bitcoin users double every 12 months. Mr. Woo makes corrections (S curve) based on real world human behaviour. Here comes wild idea that algorythms, based on mathematics and Laws of Universe are already changing real world human behaviour. Through smartphones, computers and gadgets they force us to move quicker to live more intense lives. They change us, attuning human schedule to Rythms of Universe, hence increasing people's efficiency.
II Halvings schedule (next is on June 12 2020) - recalculating of network difficulty
The network started on January 3 2009. First halving took place in 2012 which led to all time high of more than $1000 in November 2013. So, after halving bitcoin price can increase 10 fold. After next halving in 2016 we witnessed the power of third wave of bitcoin evolution in November 2017, when bitcoin rocketed to $7,900 and peaked $12,400 in Zimbabwe.
After next halving, which means that emission of bitcoin slows down and miners will be rewarded only 6.25 bitcoins (now 12.5) for one mined block. Which increases the cost of every mined coin. Because of the limited coins supply increases the price.
III Achievements of past 9 years of bitcoin existence
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/ 183 times Bitcoin could die. No other technology/product/startup is known that could survive under such huge pressure. That shows mathematical correctness of the protocol, flexibility and stability of Bitcoin Protocol. That means Bitcoin can evolutionate. It can change. Like a snake that gets rid of old skin, bitcoin is moving further, leaving its forks behind. Open to whole world's pressure, represented by banks, governments and financial institutions from outside and numerous challenges in form of soft and hard forks from inside, Bitcoin became capable to digest these pressures in the process of becoming holistic (i.e. indestructable) technology.
The Bitcoin Technology (Protocol) is so advanced and multifaced (combined knowlegde from Game Theory, Economics, Programming, Finance, Cryptography, Quantum Mechanics) that still there are only a few people who completely understand this technology. Since the Bitcoin building is so huge, some people see only separate floors of this building. Some see financial implications. Some see social implications. Some see that this technology can change the world completely - there will be no need in banks, governments, Systems. Some see the future of the technology in VR and IOT. Some call it digital gold. Some - digital currency. Some - digital assets. Probably we see birth of new class of asset, to which quite another approach should be taken by regulators. It is nither currency nor goods. It is all together, all kinds of assets represented in one digital form.
The Technology is self-balancing, coming to dynamic equilibrium from any internal or external impulse, be it soft/hard forks or governmental pressure/attacks, between 4-5 parties, such as Developers, Wallets (People interacting with this technology), Finance (financial institutions, institutional investors), Miners and IoT in the future (yes, the Robots). Bitcoins can be traded 24x7, time moves 20 times faster in the world of Bitcoin, which can accelerate growth of human economics.
IV Hello New World !!!!
Bitcoin technology gives you freedom. Independence. But it also has another side of the coin - Responsibility. Personal. You are responsible for your money and if you were not conscious building cryptocurrency portofolio you can loose your funds. If you transfer to wrong address, you can't undo. No banks can help. No insurance company. You bear all the risks.
That increases awareness. That leads to forming many people making decision to take their Fate into their own hands. To be independent from the governments and banks. To have their own opinion how to live their lives. That means new way of living. No borders. Decentralised education, stimulating people to think independently to make decisions by themselves. Probably there will be merging of old (centralized) and new (decentralized) approaches in the world. Decentralization (New World) offers Competition to old centralized world, which can lead to mutual growth in the dance of Evolution.
V Bitcoin Global Road Map
---------------------------1 Birth of Bitcoin---------------------------
2007 Bitcoin Design and Coding
2008 October - White paper published
---------------------------2 Bitcoin's childhood------------------------
2009 Year 1. January - genesis (first) block mined. Year 1 (started from October 31 2008)
2010 Year 2. Bitcoin exchanges and bitcoin exchange rate established
2011 Year 3. Satoshi Nakamoto leaves the project, as it became self-sustainable
2012 Year 4. First Halving.
2013 Year 5. November $1000 peak
2014 Year 6. Massive correction
2015 Year 7. Gaining stability
2016 Year 8. Second Halving. Segwit
2017 Year 9. Segwit 2x.
Around 0.2% of people (10-15 mln) using Bitcoin
80% of coins mined.
Global acceptance among institutional investors.
By the Year 10 (November and December 2017) all time high $7,900
---------------------------3 Sky (Bitcoin's adulthood )--------------------------
2018 Year 10. $14,000-$27,000 (Fifth wave by Elliot)
2019 Year 11. Technologies such as Lightning Network (momentary payments, no 10 min waiting) are implemented in
the second layer of Bitcoin protocol.
Next Segwit 3.
Around 1% of people using Bitcoin.
Massive correction (50%+)
2020 Year 12. Third Halving.
Around 2% of people using Bitcoin.
Recovery and movement to 6 digits.
2021 Year 13. Around 4% of people using Bitcoin.
This year we will see 6 digits.
$100,000 per Bitcoin
2022 Year 14. Around 7% of people using Bitcoin.
Consensus with banks and governments - they Must Change to Survive.
Bitcoin wons this competition and banks/governments are forced to demonopolize themselves and change
their Attitude - State is People's Servant. State has to Serve People.
2023 Year 15. Around 12% of people using Bitcoin
------------------------4 Space (Bitcoin's maturity) -------------------------------------
2024 Year 16. Fourth Halving?
Around 25% people using Bitcoin.
Blockchain technologies massively implemented
2025 Year 17. $1 Mln per bitcoin.
50%+ people using Bitcoin.
Bitcoin goes into Space (literally, to Mars).
Blockstream orbital sattelites broadcast bitcoin transactions worldwide and in the entire Solar System.
Technologies such as Atomic Swaps are implemented in top cryptocurrencies.
2026 Year 18. Segwit 4.
Massive correction.
2027 Year 19. Recovery.
2028 Year 20. Fifth Halving? 80%+ of people using Bitcoin.
Over $10 mln per bitcoin.
Irreversable changes (80 - 20 Law) in Human Society driven by Bitcoin technology.
Social changes.
Change in System of Values of Man.
------------------------- 5 Hello New World---------------------------------------------------
2032 Year 24. New generation (since 2012) is formed.
Total acceptance of bitcoin by all people.
Total death of fiat money.
With the evolution of AI possible human race economics growth up to 10 times.
$100 mln per bitcoin.
1 satoshi = 1 usd.
2,000 trillion dollar human race economics (now equals to 70 trillion dollars ) potential growth (AI, IOT,
Space industry etc.)
November 08, 2017, 07:03:21 AM
Pretty epic watching the price shoot up as the chart suggests it would.
Pretty sweet, using your model/equation spat out 3200 (give or take a few dollars) for todays price.
I like logarithmic analyses of btc's price over time.
I like logarithmic analyses of btc's price over time.
the past will show you the future
What you think about my future projection
https://pasteboard.co/GEsGOor.png
that would mean end 2018 = 14K but than slow deflation between 10k - 14k until 2023. than slowmotion bullrun till 2027 with ofcorso various ups and downs here and there.
Can't embed an image for some reason.
What you think about my future projection
https://pasteboard.co/GEsGOor.png
that would mean end 2018 = 14K but than slow deflation between 10k - 14k until 2023. than slowmotion bullrun till 2027 with ofcorso various ups and downs here and there.
Can't embed an image for some reason.
Very good I need a different look at alts I think.
Nice graphs man!
Quick question: how did you import the total marketcap data into excel?
Would you please share how you imported the data?
Quick question: how did you import the total marketcap data into excel?
Would you please share how you imported the data?
@Trolololo
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little
Actually, Trolololo, could you make one for the total marketcap of all coins?
Let me know for how much you can do this? I'm very happy to pay for this to get this done as soon as possible.
The one thing I think these calculations overlook is that other cryptos can take over the market from bitcoin and so past growth trend may not be extrapolated into the future. This has also just happened I think due to the black swan event of bitcoin not being able to process anymore transactions for half a year now. However for the whole cryptocurrency market this is still valid, but if u were to make such a chart I think you would see that current marketcap of all cryptos is already considerably above it's expected average and is due for a correction, and therefore Bitcoin as well, eventhough it is not yet way above it's expected price.
All coins marketcap log regression
Trolololo, only recently discovered this amazing work - THANK YOU (and others).
I did a bit of my own work in Excel and came up with this chart, which I think is fairly close (based on 1st of the month values in CoinMarketCap). (...)
I then made a monthly chart for BTC for the last 2.5 years and like the correlation.
Nice !!
Quote
But I have to confess I don't completely understand the values for 10 ^ 2.66167155005961 as well as the -17.9183761889864? Could you potentially elaborate or point me in the right direction?
Those are the parameters thar define the log curve.Quote
Reason been - I tried to evaluate ETH and had to move the START DATE from 9-JAN-2009 (for BTC) to 1-JAN-2013 (ETH?) to get an "acceptable visual correlation" (not very scientific I know). This is my best guess at the moment...
I don't know when ETH was incepted, but that should be the start date.
Could u update Trolololo?
Chart update!!
https://s27.postimg.org/illwa70gz/logarithmic_03_01_2017.jpg
Today's theoretical value (check HERE) is around 2100 USD, so the price is half undervalued.
Please, consider donating to bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe
Trolololo, only recently discovered this amazing work - THANK YOU (and others).
I did a bit of my own work in Excel and came up with this chart, which I think is fairly close (based on 1st of the month values in CoinMarketCap).
https://s2.postimg.org/ddzobwvpl/btc-chart-6mnth.jpg
I then made a monthly chart for BTC for the last 2.5 years and like the correlation.
https://s2.postimg.org/x7bs4m93d/btc-chart-1mnth.jpg
But I have to confess I don't completely understand the values for 10 ^ 2.66167155005961 as well as the -17.9183761889864? Could you potentially elaborate or point me in the right direction?
Reason been - I tried to evaluate ETH and had to move the START DATE from 9-JAN-2009 (for BTC) to 1-JAN-2013 (ETH?) to get an "acceptable visual correlation" (not very scientific I know). This is my best guess at the moment...
https://s2.postimg.org/l809xb3ih/eth-chart-mnth.jpg
Any help / pointers / explanation appreciated.
@Trolololo
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little
Actually, Trolololo, could you make one for the total marketcap of all coins?
Let me know for how much you can do this? I'm very happy to pay for this to get this done as soon as possible.
The one thing I think these calculations overlook is that other cryptos can take over the market from bitcoin and so past growth trend may not be extrapolated into the future. This has also just happened I think due to the black swan event of bitcoin not being able to process anymore transactions for half a year now. However for the whole cryptocurrency market this is still valid, but if u were to make such a chart I think you would see that current marketcap of all cryptos is already considerably above it's expected average and is due for a correction, and therefore Bitcoin as well, eventhough it is not yet way above it's expected price.
I agree with Marc, please make one of the total market cap, thank you!
@Trolololo
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little
Actually, Trolololo, could you make one for the total marketcap of all coins?
Let me know for how much you can do this? I'm very happy to pay for this to get this done as soon as possible.
The one thing I think these calculations overlook is that other cryptos can take over the market from bitcoin and so past growth trend may not be extrapolated into the future. This has also just happened I think due to the black swan event of bitcoin not being able to process anymore transactions for half a year now. However for the whole cryptocurrency market this is still valid, but if u were to make such a chart I think you would see that current marketcap of all cryptos is already considerably above it's expected average and is due for a correction, and therefore Bitcoin as well, eventhough it is not yet way above it's expected price.
Could u update Trolololo?
Chart update!!
https://s27.postimg.org/illwa70gz/logarithmic_03_01_2017.jpg
Today's theoretical value (check HERE) is around 2100 USD, so the price is half undervalued.
Please, consider donating to bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe
@Trolololo, there is no image available.
Can you please update?
Thank you.
Edit: Please disregard, it's working. Thanks again.
Any update to the Chart?
Thanks!
Thanks!
In this OP I will always post the last updated chart:
Update 2017-01-03:
https://s27.postimg.org/illwa70gz/logarithmic_03_01_2017.jpg
Donations: bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Update 2017-01-03:
https://s27.postimg.org/illwa70gz/logarithmic_03_01_2017.jpg
Donations: bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Hi,
Great job !!!!!
Do you have by chance a similar chart for DASH ?
February 06, 2017, 03:41:38 AM
@Trolololo
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little
January 29, 2017, 02:54:38 PM
Hey I wonder what it would take to get an updated Monero chart now that Monero has gone semi-exponential?
You can't say you weren't warned wellllllll ahead of time.
You can't say you weren't warned wellllllll ahead of time.
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