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Topic: Something, something, something, technical analysis - page 14. (Read 31179 times)

hero member
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Who's there?
One more reason for the line B: the peak 1163 was truncated, by a whale (that's why we had two peaks). If it wasn't truncated, it would be higher than 1163 and would probably touch the line B.
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
One more post on triangles (of doom), i.e. possible boundaries of a continuation of the downtrend that governed price action since early December (We're getting close to 5 months now. Quite the bear market, huh?)





As far as bearish scenarios goes, i would say it doesnt get an more clear than this. Good job.
legendary
Activity: 1568
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i really hope all you bears are wrong.. i was really hoping it starts a major trend up in the next week or so.. Sad

Well, Bitfinex stats show that actually there is few bears left now Wink Not sure if it is a bearish or a bullish sign, though Wink

sounds like a moon landing to me! Wink
full member
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i really hope all you bears are wrong.. i was really hoping it starts a major trend up in the next week or so.. Sad

Well, Bitfinex stats show that actually there is few bears left now Wink Not sure if it is a bearish or a bullish sign, though Wink
legendary
Activity: 1568
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i really hope all you bears are wrong.. i was really hoping it starts a major trend up in the next week or so.. Sad
full member
Activity: 336
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I think bears will prevail. Seems that miners may be forced to sell more soon and Bitfinex shows that there is still much more leveraged longs than shorts. With current price action at least some of these longs may be getting margin calls or simply cut losses. But agree that analysis was excellent Smiley.
legendary
Activity: 2156
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One more post on triangles (of doom), i.e. possible boundaries of a continuation of the downtrend that governed price action since early December (We're getting close to 5 months now. Quite the bear market, huh?)





(A) is the log trend line connecting the December ATH with the early January peak (near 1000). I don't consider it the most likely candidate for the main downtrend, for two reasons: a) too little points of contact, and b) price action has been too far away from the trendline for a long time, i.e. it's not only not touching the line, it's not even /near/ it for months now.

(B) is my main candidate for the upper bound of our downtrend. 3 points of contact, and price in general staying close to it to make it appear a relevant trend even at times when price doesn't touch the line.

(C) is the old lower boundary, the line through the 380-400 local bottoms. It's a log line as well, but only very weakly slopes upwards. That trendline was broken of course, on April 10/11, and again two days later, but it might still act as resistance. After all, we only closed one daily candle below it (another daily candle two days later is a borderline case), and we bounced off of it on decent volume, so you could argue the line was tested and held (sort of).

(D) is the log trendline between the 2013 ATH (at 266) and the current capitulation bottom (at 340). It is based on two assumptions a) 340 was indeed the final bottom (for which one can find independent reasons, such as the observation that we bounced off of the lower weekly Bollinger Band the week after the April 11 capitulation), and b) there is a very small (exponential) growth between the *high* of the previous bubble cycle and the final bottom of the *current* bubble cycle.

Taken together, those trendlines meet at 4 points:

(1) (Latest) Time of conclusion: Late May. Price point of conclusion: low to mid 400s. A possible candidate to mark the end of the December bear market. It would mean the 400 trendline held after all, but so does the more severe downtrend (B). Assuming it would  break out downwards, we would get to:

(2) Late June, mid 300s. My preferred candidate (EDIT: "preferred" as in: the most likely one) for a resolution of the bear market. It assumes the log line from previous ATH to current bottom holds, as does downtrend B, and once we hit the 300s again we might have enough force to finally break through B decisively.

(3) Early/Mid July, mid 400s. Assumes the 400 trendline holds now, but the B downtrend wasn't the relevant downtrend. Not very likely, in my opinion.

(4) Mid August, slightly below 400. The most dragged out consolidation triangle. Slightly more likely than scenario 3 I would say: it'd give the market a lot more time to take a "time out", without any major new price breakthroughs, neither up nor down. Think: No fresh fiat arriving for a long time, but the time for huge panic selling is over as well.

This is excellent analysis.

Of course this all assume 340 was/is the low.  Don't know how I feel about that. One thing I do know, is that there looks like there was a lot of disconnection between Houbi and the other exchanges in this last impulse down.

I think the China situation continues to be an albatross around the markets neck, however, the market looks pretty resilient right now. So much bullish sentiment. So either that sentiment keeps us afloat in the impending storm or that boat slowly springs a leak and sentiment finally turns bearish again.

Its almost a war right now against people refusing to sell and a market with no new buyers. I think who wins this war will determine whether your analysis holds or we see an entirely new form of bear market.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
One more post on triangles (of doom), i.e. possible boundaries of a continuation of the downtrend that governed price action since early December (We're getting close to 5 months now. Quite the bear market, huh?)





(A) is the log trend line connecting the December ATH with the early January peak (near 1000). I don't consider it the most likely candidate for the main downtrend, for two reasons: a) too little points of contact, and b) price action has been too far away from the trendline for a long time, i.e. it's not only not touching the line, it's not even /near/ it for months now.

(B) is my main candidate for the upper bound of our downtrend. 3 points of contact, and price in general staying close to it to make it appear a relevant trend even at times when price doesn't touch the line.

(C) is the old lower boundary, the line through the 380-400 local bottoms. It's a log line as well, but only very weakly slopes upwards. That trendline was broken of course, on April 10/11, and again two days later, but it might still act as resistance. After all, we only closed one daily candle below it (another daily candle two days later is a borderline case), and we bounced off of it on decent volume, so you could argue the line was tested and held (sort of).

(D) is the log trendline between the 2013 ATH (at 266) and the current capitulation bottom (at 340). It is based on two assumptions a) 340 was indeed the final bottom (for which one can find independent reasons, such as the observation that we bounced off of the lower weekly Bollinger Band the week after the April 11 capitulation), and b) there is a very small (exponential) growth between the *high* of the previous bubble cycle and the final bottom of the *current* bubble cycle.

Taken together, those trendlines meet at 4 points:

(1) (Latest) Time of conclusion: Late May. Price point of conclusion: low to mid 400s. A possible candidate to mark the end of the December bear market. It would mean the 400 trendline held after all, but so does the more severe downtrend (B). Assuming it would  break out downwards, we would get to:

(2) Late June, mid 300s. My preferred candidate (EDIT: "preferred" as in: the most likely one) for a resolution of the bear market. It assumes the log line from previous ATH to current bottom holds, as does downtrend B, and once we hit the 300s again we might have enough force to finally break through B decisively.

(3) Early/Mid July, mid 400s. Assumes the 400 trendline holds now, but the B downtrend wasn't the relevant downtrend. Not very likely, in my opinion.

(4) Mid August, slightly below 400. The most dragged out consolidation triangle. Slightly more likely than scenario 3 I would say: it'd give the market a lot more time to take a "time out", without any major new price breakthroughs, neither up nor down. Think: No fresh fiat arriving for a long time, but the time for huge panic selling is over as well.
legendary
Activity: 1470
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Oh wow. I just realized my chart hadn't been set to log scale, and when I did it turns out the long term resistance line hasn't been broken at all



How incredibly nooby of me.

Yet, on linear many of the pings seem to be slightly more accurate Huh Such as this (log)



vs this (linear)



Which should be used? Or are both valid?

hehehe, welcome to the discussion from 2 weeks ago. Forgot who was the first one to suggest using a log chart for the December downtrend... but I suspect the thought appeared to more people around the same time as the bear market stretched out.

I find the most plausible log downtrend right now not the one connecting to the ATH in December (like yours seems to do), but touching the peaks on January 6 and March 3. I get more points of contact like that. That's the upper bound of my "extended triangle" from the previous page.

EDIT: Here's an illustration of what I mean:

full member
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Oh wow. I just realized my chart hadn't been set to log scale, and when I did it turns out the long term resistance line hasn't been broken at all



How incredibly nooby of me.

Yet, on linear many of the pings seem to be slightly more accurate Huh Such as this (log)



vs this (linear)



Which should be used? Or are both valid?
full member
Activity: 239
Merit: 100
Agreed, mostly. But I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that we saw the bottom on April 11th, and are now grinding down to a (slightly) higher low, which will terminate the bear market more clearly.
Indeed, that is a possibility, but for the moment I'm choosing to take the more bearish outlook (until proven wrong).
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
Looks to me like it's shaping up more and more like the previous stagnating cycle. The similarities are quite staggering. If so, then something like this should be the most likely short-term price development, before breaking down hard, possibly to $266~, or possibly to a bounce on $320~ (lowest trendline).



Time to set buy orders soon Grin

Agreed, mostly. But I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that we saw the bottom on April 11th, and are now grinding down to a (slightly) higher low, which will terminate the bear market more clearly.
full member
Activity: 239
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Hm. That escalated quickly. Looks like the 'extended triangle' suggestion from April 24 is becoming more likely.


Quick Fibo update:

I changed my view what the best way is to assign Fibo levels to the current uptrend. I'm now going from the April 13 low (397 USD) to the top (548 USD). Under that view, we get the following picture of retracements of the current uptrend:

(huge image)

We bounced off quite nicely from 62% (454 USD), but now it looks like 50% (472 USD) could act as resistance.

Based on 6h momentum alone, I suspect we get another leg down almost immediately, but if we bounce off of 62% again and break through 50% soon enough on a bit of volume, I can also see the potential of a (temporary) recovery back to ~480-490.


EDIT: 62% provided very little support. I expect we will eventually visit the next level, @430.
Another way of looking at it would be as this channel



(the upper line has the same starting point as the long December trendline, only set to ping at the most recent peak).

Looks to me like it's shaping up more and more like the previous stagnating cycle. The similarities are quite staggering. If so, then something like this should be the most likely short-term price development, before breaking down hard, possibly to $266~, or possibly to a bounce on $320~ (lowest trendline).



Time to set buy orders soon Grin
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
Hm. That escalated quickly. Looks like the 'extended triangle' suggestion from April 24 is becoming more likely.


Quick Fibo update:

I changed my view what the best way is to assign Fibo levels to the current uptrend. I'm now going from the April 13 low (397 USD) to the top (548 USD). Under that view, we get the following picture of retracements of the current uptrend:



We bounced off quite nicely from 62% (454 USD), but now it looks like 50% (472 USD) could act as resistance.

Based on 6h momentum alone, I suspect we get another leg down almost immediately, but if we bounce off of 62% again and break through 50% soon enough on a bit of volume, I can also see the potential of a (temporary) recovery back to ~480-490.


EDIT: 62% provided very little support. I expect we will eventually visit the next level, @430.
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It's what I believe is going to happen, so I went full fiat at 512 with the hope of buying back around 375-400 before mid may. Wish me luck

I'm sure I don't need to tell you this, but I hope you also set a stop-loss to buy back in. Decide, ahead of time, at which price you'll have to consider your previous assumptions to be proven wrong by the market, and then stick to it.

1d Ichimoku cloud comes to mind, or daily SMA200. But, whatever you pick, don't go back on your decision later unless you have extremely good reasons to do so.


If it breaks 550 on stamp...


I like to stare at the stamp 6h chart right now because the resolution on my screen shows exactly 6 months. The descending fractal-ish downtrend since the ATH is bizarre in the way it that Jan-06 through Mar-03 looks identical to Mar-03 through Apr-15. My pattern recognition hard-wiring tells me we are in for a 3rd smaller one (also could be a total fallacy).

For Apr-15 thru May-20, if it does anything besides taking a bumpy little ride down to ~325 I will be surprised.
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taking a step back again, and looking at the longer-term trends in some indicators, it appears they have all flipped this past week  Cheesy

legendary
Activity: 1470
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It's what I believe is going to happen, so I went full fiat at 512 with the hope of buying back around 375-400 before mid may. Wish me luck

I'm sure I don't need to tell you this, but I hope you also set a stop-loss to buy back in. Decide, ahead of time, at which price you'll have to consider your previous assumptions to be proven wrong by the market, and then stick to it.

1d Ichimoku cloud comes to mind, or daily SMA200. But, whatever you pick, don't go back on your decision later unless you have extremely good reasons to do so.
member
Activity: 74
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It's what I believe is going to happen, so I went full fiat at 512 with the hope of buying back around 375-400 before mid may. Wish me luck
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
seems entirely possible. suits my short term bearish outlook. satisfies the 'ohmigosh it can't possibly go lower' aspect of capitulation/max pain.

i like it sir!

Thanks. Combines "the bottom is in" with "the pain isn't over"... what's not to like :D
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
seems entirely possible. suits my short term bearish outlook. satisfies the 'ohmigosh it can't possibly go lower' aspect of capitulation/max pain.

i like it sir!
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