One more post on triangles (of doom), i.e. possible boundaries of a continuation of the downtrend that governed price action since early December (We're getting close to 5 months now. Quite the bear market, huh?)
(A) is the log trend line connecting the December ATH with the early January peak (near 1000). I don't consider it the most likely candidate for the main downtrend, for two reasons: a) too little points of contact, and b) price action has been too far away from the trendline for a long time, i.e. it's not only not touching the line, it's not even /near/ it for months now.
(B) is my main candidate for the upper bound of our downtrend. 3 points of contact, and price in general staying close to it to make it appear a relevant trend even at times when price doesn't touch the line.
(C) is the old lower boundary, the line through the 380-400 local bottoms. It's a log line as well, but only very weakly slopes upwards. That trendline was broken of course, on April 10/11, and again two days later, but it might still act as resistance. After all, we only closed one daily candle below it (another daily candle two days later is a borderline case), and we bounced off of it on decent volume, so you could argue the line was tested and held (sort of).
(D) is the log trendline between the 2013 ATH (at 266) and the current capitulation bottom (at 340). It is based on two assumptions a) 340 was indeed the final bottom (for which one can find independent reasons, such as the observation that we bounced off of the lower weekly Bollinger Band the week after the April 11 capitulation), and b) there is a very small (exponential) growth between the *high* of the previous bubble cycle and the final bottom of the *current* bubble cycle.
Taken together, those trendlines meet at 4 points:
(1) (Latest) Time of conclusion: Late May. Price point of conclusion: low to mid 400s. A possible candidate to mark the end of the December bear market. It would mean the 400 trendline held after all, but so does the more severe downtrend (B). Assuming it would break out downwards, we would get to:
(2) Late June, mid 300s. My preferred candidate (EDIT: "preferred" as in: the most likely one) for a resolution of the bear market. It assumes the log line from previous ATH to current bottom holds, as does downtrend B, and once we hit the 300s again we might have enough force to finally break through B decisively.
(3) Early/Mid July, mid 400s. Assumes the 400 trendline holds now, but the B downtrend wasn't the relevant downtrend. Not very likely, in my opinion.
(4) Mid August, slightly below 400. The most dragged out consolidation triangle. Slightly more likely than scenario 3 I would say: it'd give the market a lot more time to take a "time out", without any major new price breakthroughs, neither up nor down. Think: No fresh fiat arriving for a long time, but the time for huge panic selling is over as well.