Topic: Making too many picks reduces chances of winning. - page 11. (Read 1729 times)

As long as I discuss sports betting, I always say that the most ideal is a single bet. especially, if we talk about football. every week there are many matches that will be held, whatever the league. starting from the local leagues of each country, to the top European leagues. well, we have many opportunities every week to choose and sort the teams we will bet on later. in fact, I am not referring to expert opinions about too many choices reducing the chances of winning, but based on my experience in sports betting. the more matches we choose, the smaller our chances of winning. so, I agree with what you said in this post based on expert sources, especially in the field of sports. that's why, I often say, bet as ideally as possible and choose from the many matches presented. even before a match is about to take place, we can research it and gather as much up-to-date information as possible.

what's even more ideal is that we have marked several matches beforehand even though the matches, for example, will be held in the next three days. collect information, then research and analyze it. after that, we look for the ideal odds choice as a bet and don't always just have to bet on 1×2. there are many options for us to choose from, whether both teams scored, Under/Over, handicap and various options available. maximum, three matches is more than enough. ideally, just one single bet, that too from various matches that we choose. and never hesitate, if there are no interesting, good, high probability choices, then avoid betting. and I often do this, at least from various top European leagues, one of the best matches is the choice. or, as I said, a maximum of three matches. even so, there is no guarantee that the team we choose will win all three. well, there are no other words other than I agree with what the experts say.

When gambling, the higher the bets you make, the lower your chances of winning money. I will like to use soccer as an example. When gambling and you pick too many matches in your bet, then your chances of winning will decrease, because your bet can easily be ruined by a match alone. But when you pick just a few matches with little odds, the chances of winning will be kind of high, even if your win might not be much, so I do recommend to people to always reduce the matches that they will be picking when gambling, which will increase their chances of winning.

As far as I've experienced, the fewer choices you make the better it is to keep your mind clear and sane.
Because usually there are more choices, we are faced with a lot of analysis which ultimately interferes with our decision to bet. Even making lots of choices will also drain your funds in an instant.
It's better to focus on the simpler ones first, so that we get used to reading patterns that may occur in each game. Whether this is a suggestion or whether it can be scientifically proven, when you bet with a happy feeling, your potential for winning is closer.

I also take bets one at a time.

I just don't want to do it for so many bets at the same time but when some matches that I like for which a player or the team itself, I'll bet for that even if I have already an active bet.

It varies from time to time and I don't parlay. I'm more satisfied to see the actual odds for each of the bet that I make. Maybe that's about being organized with our bets that we just want it to be like that.

Same with investing. People like to diversify their investments but over-diversification is as bad as going all in on one asset. Peter Lynch even calls it "diworsification". Some people can track many picks/investments at the same time and still be successful while some others can't handle more than 5 picks/investments. The number changes from person to person... Everybody should know their own limitations and we can only find out about it when we try different approaches. Sometimes I see those crazy bet slips where people bet on more than 10 games and still get a huge return. As long as you able to make money, everything else is just noise.

I agree with the opinion that the chance of winning an event decreases. Using the example of boxing, there are a lot of values ​​that you can place a bet on: what round/points/knockout, etc. You need to be clairvoyant to guess all the outcomes of an event with accuracy. It’s easier to bet on victory or loss, so the chance is exactly 50/50. (Although there may be a draw on points)
Of course, there are experts who bet on several events, but you need to have a very strong understanding of the athlete and be an analyst of the highest category.

Very well said, even though you did some exaggerating words.

But that is true, and the realistic way of thinking about how the satisfaction can become the feast for a sport bettor when they get the results in the way they wanted and I bet the probability of achieving the desired results on multiple games is far lesser and they more like compensate even if we win on one game and lost on another one.

It's about the experience, the thrill, the suspense, the full rollercoaster ride of emotions that comes with a single match. Betting on multiple games at once? Sure, it might sound impressive, but you're more likely to end up with just disappointed or satisfied information. It's not quality over quantity, it's about enjoying the spectacle and getting the most out of each game.

Concentrating on one match lets you become a football whisperer, a betting oracle, predicting moves and outcomes with the finesse of a psychic octopus. It's the deep dive into stats, the strategic analysis, and the satisfaction of saying, "I called it!".  So, let the high-rollers spread their bets thin like butter on toast; we're here for the deep, meaningful connection with a single game. It's not just about the money; it's about the art of the bet, the dance of probability, and the joy of saying, "I knew it all along."

limiting your single bets per day will give you more time to contemplate on your chances. you can also consider a lot of contributing factors why a certain result will give you higher chances of winning. because let us admit the fact that if you place simultaneous single bets in a day, the possibility that you haven't made intensive analysis is high.

also, you will find real quick that betting into a lot of single bets will exhaust your day, and you will feel so tired the next day to place on a very good game that you've been waiting for. so for me, much better to place single bets on betting lines that you feel have very good chance of winning rather than stake on several single bets where you feel you only made mediocre analysis.


there's nothing wrong betting on a lot of betting lines, so long you are confident with yourself that you have done a very good assessment of each line. because it is your money on the line. even if we say, we placed small bets. sometimes i do that also in basketball. do take note, in this sports, you have so many betting lines that you can place your bet with, in just a single game.

But if you turn your statement upside down, it would mean that someone who makes only a few bets per day should be good to go since that person takes advantage of more thorough analyses. It is of course never wrong to do more analysis on a game, but I remember that I tried all sorts of things and never succeeded in becoming truly long-term profitable. Luck was always important and when I get extremely unlucky, losing despite thorough analyses can quickly become the norm for a period of time. It's just not like that. No matter how much time you invest in the analysis, there are too many variables you can't predict. Maybe chances are higher of winning regularly in the less well known sports where bookmakers also have less data.

I agree with you… I noticed that during the last 5 days rollover through out that period I only took a single bet per day and I noticed that I was able to concentrate and make a better decision compare to when I have 7 tickets for 7 different games running.

Although that was only during my 5 days rollover challenge, on a normal day I love betting on different games (I’m not referring to parlay here), I can’t just log out k owing that I have just a single ticket running or two tickets running.

Reducing the chances of winning? It would really be still varying because if we do talk about multiple single picks but having that higher chance of winning up the game or having that good winning rate then i could say that it is really that worth. It would really be always vary on the winning rate of those picks that you do have because it would really be that matter on how many wins that you could be able to get
on that particular picks and since we are talking about single bets then it would really be just that normal that winning rate or choice would really be basing up on the outcome.
As long you are really that knowledgeable into those picks then i could say that it is really that worth on testing out so, rather than on making up bets which you dont know about.

Depending on how great our knowledge about the sports matches we are going to bet as well as depending on the strategy used by bettors.
Not all people pick many bets with low odds, there are also some people who bet on many matches at the same time but with higher odds.
The bet amount also affect the overall result, some users may bet bigger on lower odds and bet smaller amount on higher odds.
We cant say that betting on many games is bad in general, but it is bad if it is being done blindly without knowledge and analysis.
Even placing a single bet only can be bad strategy if we do it blindly.

One thing I have learnt about making more bets pick on a single play is to have increasing chances of higher odds numbers, accumulating bets selections is one of the ways to achieve this and get it done, if you're a sport bettor, you will prefer having about 5 or more selections of matches to make you have higher odds even though the more the bets increases the higher it becomes riskier for you to win and likewise your money increases to win.

Agree, too many picks = we will place more bets on the favorite, and the odds usually less than 2x.
Lets say we place a $10 bet each on 10 different games, 5 of them were wins but the odds only 1.8x = $40 profits.
While we lose $50 on the other 5 games. 

Place a single bet on many games at the same time/day is really a bad strategy. This is a common mistake for sports betting newbs.

i would be taking the sport seriously if i like the sports but if its just something like soccer or cricket where there are plenty of events, just keep betting.

just pick a few if you want but for some of us, we chose a lot of picks in a few hours and then chose again after all of them were over.  i think around 3-5 at a time will be good to see whether you have profited. just spend a few dollars each and then wait and then roll the balance again for another 5 bets.  

Simple logic; more bets means higher risk than higher risk means bigger rewards. The choice is yours basically; this simply makes gambling an interesting activity. You would either embrace the risk in high hopes of earning huge return or suffer from huge loss without anything left on your bankroll OR play it safely and enjoy without expecting for a high reward. Depends on what kind of a gambler you are; are you one of those who are hoping to get rich from gambling or just someone who wants to add 'flavor' to the games they are into? More bets means higher odds of not winning and that also means higher chances of losing.Gamblers especially new ones should be aware of their purpose to why are they gambling in the first place; for sure it would be profit but how big are their expectations from a 'win'?
Doubled risk but doubled rewards which is why it is tempting to many gamblers. There's just this common idea to gamblers which is 'instant'; instant way to get rich with ease. Quantity and quality are two good points in this discussion but keep in mind that eitheway of these two won't guarantee a positive outcome. You could lose with quality bets and quantity bets. What to do? Probably anticipate the worse and just bet a tolerable amount so even if you lose, your pocket won't be hurt that much.

If you are not talking about parlay, i would like to see links on these claims and who exactly these experts are saying so. Because mathematically you have same changes winning every single time.

Parley i would get, because if that would be for tossing a coin for example, guessing 10 throws with 50/50 changes would give you 1/1024 change of guessing every one of them. But if you take them seperately you have a 50/50 change of winning every time, minus the house edge. In fact you probably have better change on guessing winners of sport events correctly, even though you wouldn't have 2x multiplier minus house edge with every bet like with coin.

Actually, i'm a little confused about what you mean here, to be honest, when you make a sports match pick of more than 1 team, it can be called a parlay and the profit you get is also better when you do a parlay.

Actually, i also quite often make picks to bet on one team because usually, every league in Europe will hold matches close together, so i rarely make picks for matches of bottom teams, usually, i will only make pick bets for teams that are in the top 10 because the potential for winning is greater.  So even if you make a lot of bets ^{(pick teams)} and only choose those in the top 10 then the chance of winning is quite big.

One game at a time really makes sense, I don't bet on multiple games at the same time because its an overkill and completely ruins the actual fun and adrenaline part of our bet, I won't say it's quality over quantity cause its irrelevant to gambling in my opinion but it gives the complete experience and the part we supposed to enjoy will be satisfied only if we keep our concentration focused on a particular game and also it will help to make better analysis about the team and opponents and place the right bet.