Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 2. (Read 118242 times)

I assume this chart refers to the amount of people joining?

Good stuff never dies. I did the exponential trendline analysis for the first time in some time. The presentation of the graphics is still not my strong area so please ask for the graphs with instructions. I have them but don't know how to transfer them here 

- The trendline has been revised down in each of the recalculations (I did one every 2-3 months). The trendline price is $3,210 (cf. it would have been $6,000 if the year-ago trend were extrapolated).

- Until 7/2014, the trendline R^2 got better all the time, peaking at 0.9353. Since 7/2014, the R^2 has been getting lower and is now 0.9246. The linear fit in exponential chart is no more the best fit. Eg. the 3rd degree polynomial y = -0,000000x3 + 0,000002x2 + 0,001635x - 2,740811 gives the R^2 = 0.9480. This trendline shows its apex in the latter part of 2014, and is now in decline.

- The variation from the exponential trend that was contained at [-0.6, 0.5] units log ever since autumn-2011, is now broken and we are at -1,13 currently. We have never been this low, because the trend was only established a few months after Mt.Gox opened in 2010, and initially we were all the time above the trend.

- Absent all fundamental considerations (mainly: recognition, adoption, tx number and volume, trade volume, acceptance, economy size, VC investment - which all point to a continuing uptrend) it is possible that the exponential uptrend is broken.

- Considering all fundamental considerations, and the fact that regardless of the trendline we choose, we are currently well below it, the situation now is favorable to go long instead of short.

That the baseline Bitcoin price is $6k, and we are  s e r i o u s l y  undervalued atm. It does not go to the baseline when it shoots, it shoots up, perhaps as high above as we are now below.

(The trendline is of course subject to update with each datapoint, so it should be more like 3-4k, and the next top also a low-5-figure amount, instead of a six-figure one)

Result:


What does this mean?

Great thread! Updates on this? Regards..

Or:

We have to habitually save in Bitcoin and think of prices in Bitcoin terms. (The functions of money.)

I've been doing all three for 2 years soon.

Not yet. First, we have to be paying simple reoccurring things with Bitcoin before we get out the speculative phase. And that will happen only at much higher prices...

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

Bitcoin's price might be in decline now, but soon it will skyrocket! I think if people have more straight forward ways to buy Bitcoins, it will eventually help big time! We need more websites that trade Moneypak to Bitcoin, Paypal to Bitcoin etc.... Also, there are almost no traders that accept Credit cards, but i understand their fears of chargebacks.

I have made a non-linear regression of the historic Bitcoin prices:





Calculate today's trendline price here: wolframalpha.com

More info here: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value

Somebody dumped and the price reacted. But the reaction was little because the price starts to surge already again. Since the transaction volume and the price trend was stuck before this down trend was the best what could have happened for now. Maybe it would be good if the Bitcoin price would be drowned to 450 USD.

Thank you very much for the updated graph, Risto. It's great to get some long-term perspective in times like these. It's interesting to note that barely a week after that local min on the trend line on 2012-05-21, BTCUSD took off from ~5 to 9.2 on 2012-07-18.

Trendline update as of today.

0,002985x - 2,851666

R^2 = 0,935623

Picture is telling the important thing.

In Red, USD/BTC log chart since the beginning (this is a 2050 day chart), with 0 showing $1 and every level is 10x as high as the previous one.

In Blue, the daily deviation from the then-current exponential trendline. (The first trendline calculated is from April-2011 however).


Very crude but shows, among others, that:

- The latest dip from 570 to 510 in Bitcoin price is so insignificant that it can hardly be seen, even though this is a daily chart and not a weekly vwap (same goes for Silkroad flashcrash in 2013-10-3 btw);
- We are currently at -0.56 below the trend, so it is very low;
- We were this low in 2012-5-21; 7-8 months before the uptrend of 2013 started, so it is not a given that we will see an uptrend soon this time either, even if the history was to predict the future;
- However, the lowest price ever seen after 2012-5-21 was only $0.02 lower than the price in 2012-5-21, based on this, the downside from here on is extremely limited.

Now it's lower.

-0.4628 still not lower than -0.5

Thanks wachtwoord  it might be a browser related issue,

_smudger_

I clicked the link.

But here's a fixed link (I hope) Link

Their log usage is different.  Wachtwoord did a log on the whole first term.

well, thats... slightly odd.