Topic: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... - page 207. (Read 137916 times)

From my aspect, these odds are really unfair. I have no problem with Verstappen's being shown as the clear favourite. Maybe Verstappen hasn't won any race on this track yet but we can't disregard the fact that he is much faster than all of the drivers on the grid these days. But Leclerc's odd is too high and I think that we have nothing to lose if we give it a chance by a small amount.  

Sainz's odd is too high and even it might be given a chance. Maybe things would go sideways for the biggest favourites and he would find another chance. I say another because if you remember he was in a big rivalry with Gasly for the win in the last race here in 2020 after very unexpected incidents. But if we don't see any problem then Verstappen would win the race again most probably.

Italian Grand Prix Race - Winner

Verstappen, Max - 1.37

Leclerc, Charles - 6.95

Hamilton, Lewis - 9.50

Russell, George - 11.10

Perez, Sergio - 12.60

Sainz Jr., Carlos - 24.40

This is the opinion of the bookmakers at the moment. Verstappen won 4 races in a row and already 10 out of 15, but it seems to me that the odds of 1.37 for him to win look like a mockery. I understand that in terms of probabilities the events are unrelated and "races have no memory" but it seems to me that the longer the winning streak, the more likely it is that the next race will be less successful. Leclerc's odds look tempting.

Redbull should be more favored here as this track is almost entirely a big straight with just a couple of narrow corners in total.I expect Mercedes to also shine here should they continue with their upgrade of the car which so far is netting them great result,they were in a fight for a win in the last race in the Dutch GP.Ferrari should also be fast enough here so it is difficult to predict how it will go but keep in mind that last time even a slow McLaren won and the other cars could not keep the pace with them so in this track there is no real favorite.

Ferrari in his home race.... can they re-claim a win in Monza?

I think they are not so far behind, in one race. Obviusly in the season they are off, but with a little bit of luck and no mistakes they can win, lets see how good its RB in this track. And take an eye of course in Mercedes.

Oh..  I thought Monza is a couple of weeks away.  Wow, I don't think we had three weeks straight of F1 for the last how many seasons or did we?  :/  Not that I'm complaining or anything.  Lol.

Now..  Ferrari should def not fuck up in this particular race or it's Binotto's head on a pike.  But in hindsight Binotto is a better engineer than he is calling the shots for the team.

Here's the schedule.

2022 F1 Italian GP Schedule

Track:  Autodromo Nazionale Monza

Practice 1:  Friday September 9, 2022, 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM
Practice 2:  Friday September 9, 2022, 5:00 PM - 6:00 PM
Practice 3:  Saturday September 10, 2022, 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM
Qualifying:  Saturday September 10, 2022, 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM
Race:  Sunday September 11, 2022, 3:00 PM - 5:00 PM

It's definitely going to be tighter for Fabio than last year, Bagnaia always seems to have better form towards the end of the season, it's definitely not going to be so easy for Fabio to just manage the lead this year, the Yamaha is just too weak for that. But it is still such a crash from the top 3 in the standings and probably the chance to win the world championship title is gone or much less. It could be very close this year, there are still 6 races with a maximum of 125 points.

The penultimate race in Sepang is probably a Ducati track again after the long Corona break. Aragon could be good for the Yamaha, it will be difficult for Bagnaia to get the 5th win in a row, but Aleix could be very strong there on the Aprilia.

Quartararo now has only 30 different points with Bagnaia, with this result will make him a bit fear his 1st position got defeated by Bagnaia when 1 or 2 next races are lost or didn't get a podium. In Aragon, he was always inconsistent, he finish 8th last year ago and 18th in 2020, maybe he didn't know much about the detailed track, or this is just a traditional Yamaha YZR M1, which rarely wins on Aragon since Jorge Lorenzo in 2014 and 2015.

This week we are going to Monza.

This time there is no sprint race here. This is one of the weakest races for Verstappen. I mean that he has no history with a win here. The last winner of this GP was Gasly if you remember his delightful rivalry with Sainz for the win. Before that there was another awesome rivalry among Leclerc, Hamilton and Bottas which resulted in a Leclerc win. This is the home GP for Ferrari also of course. Maybe it might be finally time for a Ferrari driver (especially Leclerc) to win here. Ferrari are still dealing with durability issues but this is a really important race for the team. This might be a race that we watch a great rivalry between Leclerc and Verstappen for the win.

How interesting it is that these races are following each other in the calendar.    It's a nice coincidence to see two important races for these two great drivers this often.

I was disappointed in how the race ended.  I mean sure I'm glad to see Verstappen win as I'm rooting for Red Bull but I felt like if only Hamilton switched to the softs too he would've had a fighting chance to win the race imho.  In the years prior I would have laughed hearing Hamilton complain on team radio but not this one.

Anyway just for completeness sake for the thread...  Here are the results.

2022 F1 Dutch GP Race Results

Max Verstappen   NED   Oracle Red Bull Racing   72 Laps
2   George Russell   GBR   Mercedes AMG Petronas Formula One Team   + 4.071s
3   Charles Leclerc   MON   Scuderia Ferrari   + 10.929s
4   Lewis Hamilton   GBR   Mercedes AMG Petronas Formula One Team   + 13.016s
5   Sergio Perez   MEX   Oracle Bull Racing   + 18.168s
6   Fernando Alonso   ESP   BWT Alpine F1 Team   + 18.754s
7   Lando Norris   GBR   McLaren F1 Team   + 19.306s
8   Carlos Sainz   ESP   Scuderia Ferrari   + 20.916s
9   Esteban Ocon   FRA   BWT Alpine F1 Team   + 21.117s
10   Lance Stroll   CAN   Aston Martin Aramco Cognizant Formula One Team   + 22.459s
11   Pierre Gasly   FRA   Scuderia AlphaTauri   + 27.009s
12   Alexander Albon   THA   Williams Racing   + 30.390s
13   Mick Schumacher   GER   Haas F1 Team   + 32.995s
14   Sebastian Vettel   GER   Aston Martin Aramco Cognizant Formula One Team   + 36.007s
15   Kevin Magnussen   DEN   Haas F1 Team   + 36.869s
16   Guanyu Zhou   CHN   Alfa Romeo F1 Team Orlen   + 37.320s
17   Daniel Ricciardo   AUS   McLaren F1 Team   + 37.764s
18   Nicholas Latifi   CAN   Williams Racing   + 1 Lap
    Valtteri Bottas   FIN   Alfa Romeo F1 Team Orlen   DNF
        Yuki Tsunoda   JPN   Scuderia AlphaTauri

RedBull is the slightly better car at the moment, but it also depends on the track. But Ferrari has been making a lot of mistakes this season and the tyre thing was another typical mistake. You can't become world champion like that, even if they had the better car at the beginning of the season.

When Perez drove over the impact wrench, was that his mistake or was the wrench a bit far out?

Bagnaia has indeed found a good filing with his bike in the second half of the season and on the other hand Bagnaia also needs a win at home to be able to catch up on points from Fabio Quartararo at this time.

Fabio Quartararo will definitely find it a little difficult to maintain himself at the top of the standings because every time he races he always gives 100% of his ability to get points and keep his distance from his competitors in the standings. The next race Fabio Quartararo will also experience difficulties in Aragon because the circuit in Aragon was still not friendly enough with a Fabio Quartararo until last year and hopefully there will be a little difference this year for him.

I think this is because Charles has been longer than Carlos with Ferrari,for me Carlos is a very good driver and personally I think it has much greater potential than Leclerc,give him a bit of time and a winning car and I am sure he can fight for the title.Having said that the upcoming track at Monza is a completely straight track where most of the lap is run with near 85% full throttle here so it will be an interesting one,not that much aerodynamics is needed here so it will be interesting to see the top speeds of the car,is this maybe the right time for a Mercedes win?

The driver makes the difference, is the same with Ferrari.

If you look at Charles, you see a Ferrari (almost after the FIA Change) competitive with RBR and Mercedes, if you look at Sainz you think they are behind them.

The weird thing is, Max looked faster than both Russell and Hamilton, so if I saw that then I would say that Red Bull is still faster than Red Bull, but both of them were faster than Perez as well, so that looked like Mercedes is better.

I am not 100% sure which car is faster, the difference between Max and Perez was huge this race and didn't look like it would make sense. In the end, one thing is for sure, Mercedes looked faster than Ferrari, but also Ferrari made a huge mistake with pit once again, so I am not sure if that was a case for it. In the end, three different constructors on the podium, this race wasn't really made for calculating who is better.

Yeah big mistake for them but RBR is a better car right now.
In some tracks, Ferrari was faster before the rules change, but now it seems RBR are just better in every condition, slow, fast wet, and dry tracks.

Honestly it was not really what Ferrari usually do though, sure they fuck up the strategy, but I did not expected them to have a wrong tire, go get it, and leave a wheel gun laying on the floor for perez to go over. That type of back to back fails are not usually something I would expect. What would I expect? Pick hard compound when there were just 15 laps left? Something stupid and obvious, but related to strategy? Sure. Thats something I would expect from them. But this was a whole new level for them, even f3 teams do not make mistakes like this, and they do not have a pit like this neither.

At this point I'm not even surprised about another Ferrari failure. It's only question how they will f*ck up. Poor Sainz - first one of his tyres not ready, gun is dropped somewhere that Perez went through it and then penalty for unsafe release. I'm waiting until someone will combine all their failures in single video with Benny Hill soundtrack.
It was good race, not that easy win for Max. Lewis was very unhappy about Mercedes strategy for him, but with different desicion I still don't see him fighting for a win. It's worth to mention improved pace of Mercedes, but they aren't able to compete with Red Bull.

It came as no surprise that Verstappen would win. Yet Hamilton has shown today that he can still do it. It was close to whether Hamilton had won this Grand Prix. Nice and good to see that Mercedes finally competed for the overall victory. Again disappointing that Ferrari didn't do anything at all. I didn't think Verstappen would easily become world champion a few months ago. But ok, he's not officially a champion yet and weird things can happen in the racing world. What a pit stop from Ferrari 

This can be the summary of the whole season for Ferrari.  

One tyre missing on an important pit stop for Sainz. After that he lost a few positions and couldn't take these back later in the race. Ferrari are still a huge disappointment and it looks like they don't care about the rest of the season at all. Leclerc and Sainz must be begging for the season to end as soon as possible. Because even we wouldn't make these amateurish mistakes if we were in Ferrari's place. Bad strategies can destroy a whole season and Ferrari are showing an example of it now. Verstappen must be counting the days to announce his championship officially.

Mercedes have improved themselves much earlier than I expected. I wouldn't be surprised if they even get past Ferrari in the constructor standings later on.

Bagnaia has found the right feeling with the bike so it will be very difficult to stop, like at the end of last season. I think this victory is very natural for him, because since FP his performance is quite good.

while Fabio Quartararo has been falling behind lately, with so many riders and the team growing that it's difficult for him to keep up with Ducati's pace.
but regarding the points in the standings, I think he is still quite safe being chased by Bagnaia. he just needs consistency in the front row and hopes Bagnaia doesn't always win races.