Stop. Just stop. Your analysis is awful. The 10-14% i've plotted is sustained throughout the day (weighted average price). The 20% spread, which isn't on that chart, is a temporary state. Nontheless there has never been a 20% price discrepancy before so it was a notworthy high variance.
When did you get out of your diapers? There has been spikes of > 20% many times. E.g. during the crash from 260, and the rally afterwards. Quite recently. 
Topic: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] - page 309. (Read 908613 times)
11:28 <@MagicalTux> fimp, sepa is going faster than wire right now
11:28 <@MagicalTux> except for emergency manual wires (but it's more expensive)
I guess this explains how some lucky people are making a killing doing arbitrage while most can't: Make MagicalTux a good offer and he's do the "expensive" "emergency manual wires".
Who are these people making a killing off "emergency manual wires"?
Why do you even bother to ask your question here? Just ask support. The bank fees for an overnight SWIFT transfers are steep. I assume you have to be trusted to get that option, and it will probably not be a good idea if you transfer less than six digits of USD.11:28 <@MagicalTux> except for emergency manual wires (but it's more expensive)
I guess this explains how some lucky people are making a killing doing arbitrage while most can't: Make MagicalTux a good offer and he's do the "expensive" "emergency manual wires".
Who are these people making a killing off "emergency manual wires"?
Anyone with a domestic bank account in Japan can make even better profit. The fee for an overnight JPY withdrawal is only 200 JPY (2 USD).
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Why is this option not available to normal people?
Why is the "expensive" price not public?
Eh? If it has ever been a secret, it hasn't been well kept. You don't impress anyone buy acting surprised.Why is the "expensive" price not public?
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The 14.59% spread indicates that there are not that many people getting a chance to arbitrage, but there probably are some (friends/family of mtgox staff?)...
Oh, please stop barfing all over the forum. Are you drunk or something?MtGox staff live in Japan, and I assume most of their friends and family do as well. Why pay a high withdrawal fee for express SWIFT transfer, when you can get a cheap domestic transfer faster? You should stop doing drugs.
11:28 <@MagicalTux> fimp, sepa is going faster than wire right now
11:28 <@MagicalTux> except for emergency manual wires (but it's more expensive)
I guess this explains how some lucky people are making a killing doing arbitrage while most can't: Make MagicalTux a good offer and he's do the "expensive" "emergency manual wires".
Who are these people making a killing off "emergency manual wires"?
Why is this option not available to normal people?
Why is the "expensive" price not public?
The 14.59% spread indicates that there are not that many people getting a chance to arbitrage, but there probably are some (friends/family of mtgox staff?)...
11:28 <@MagicalTux> except for emergency manual wires (but it's more expensive)
I guess this explains how some lucky people are making a killing doing arbitrage while most can't: Make MagicalTux a good offer and he's do the "expensive" "emergency manual wires".
Who are these people making a killing off "emergency manual wires"?
Why is this option not available to normal people?
Why is the "expensive" price not public?
The 14.59% spread indicates that there are not that many people getting a chance to arbitrage, but there probably are some (friends/family of mtgox staff?)...
my lord you are one paranoid fuck. if anyone was doing any arbitrage, the gap would be closing not growing further apart.
If you want to get some perspective on how large of a discrepancy 20% is, just take a look at the variance chart. I plotted the average daily value of Gox vs Bitstamp. But for the price movement within the last 12 hrs, I picked a time period early in the morning where the discrepancy was highest. Not only did the variance hit a record high of 14.68% Sunday (full day weighted average price), but it exploded through that to 20%.
Yep, Bitstamp and other exchanges lag behind when there is a rally. This isn't news. Has been this way since MtGox grew to become the largest exchange.15:18
Do you think the sustained spread between BTC-E and Bitstamp is because people have more trust in BTC-E than in Bitstamp? Some people in financial trouble are buying BTC at MtGox to sell at other exchanges, but this is hardly about trust, is it? There are more than 68k BTC for sale in the order book on MtGox. That's a lot of money for an untrusted exchange.
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When i now load http://bitcoinwisdom.com/ , the Bitstamp graph is now default.
Someone who has collaborated with Gox, once said to me, "Mark knows its all over".
Just a matter of time, me thinks. But consider this. If Gox does finally die, and people get all their money back, should Mark be praised for the managed wind-down that appears to be taking place? Theres certainly an argument that says Gox could have easily taken a path worse than the present.
Someone who has collaborated with Gox, once said to me, "Mark knows its all over".
Just a matter of time, me thinks. But consider this. If Gox does finally die, and people get all their money back, should Mark be praised for the managed wind-down that appears to be taking place? Theres certainly an argument that says Gox could have easily taken a path worse than the present.
IS THIS REALLY A SIGN THAT ALL IS FINE AT MTGOX OR THE SIGN OF A "BANK RUN"?
If it was a bank run, the volume at other exchanges would equal that of MtGox because people were buying on MtGox to sell on other exchanges. But it isn't. Not even close. Volume on MtGox today is much higher than on other exchanges. USD volume alone is more than 3x the volume on Bitstamp, and 4x when you add up the rest of the currencies on MtGox. No signs of empty hot wallet on MtGox today either, so probably just a normal rally where MtGox is leading as usual.Not necessarily - They may just be buying BTC and transferring them to their personal wallets, before the price gets even higher.
If you want to get some perspective on how large of a discrepancy 20% is, just take a look at the variance chart. I plotted the average daily value of Gox vs Bitstamp. But for the price movement within the last 12 hrs, I picked a time period early in the morning where the discrepancy was highest. Not only did the variance hit a record high of 14.68% Sunday (full day weighted average price), but it exploded through that to 20%.
Yep, Bitstamp and other exchanges lag behind when there is a rally. This isn't news. Has been this way since MtGox grew to become the largest exchange.Nope. While it lags for a few minutes, sustained spread between exchanges is a recent phenomenon. Those sustained spread periods are due to people losing trust in Gox.
IS THIS REALLY A SIGN THAT ALL IS FINE AT MTGOX OR THE SIGN OF A "BANK RUN"?
If it was a bank run, the volume at other exchanges would equal that of MtGox because people were buying on MtGox to sell on other exchanges. But it isn't. Not even close. Volume on MtGox today is much higher than on other exchanges. USD volume alone is more than 3x the volume on Bitstamp, and 4x when you add up the rest of the currencies on MtGox. No signs of empty hot wallet on MtGox today either, so probably just a normal rally where MtGox is leading as usual. If you want to get some perspective on how large of a discrepancy 20% is, just take a look at the variance chart. I plotted the average daily value of Gox vs Bitstamp. But for the price movement within the last 12 hrs, I picked a time period early in the morning where the discrepancy was highest. Not only did the variance hit a record high of 14.68% Sunday (full day weighted average price), but it exploded through that to 20%.
Yep, Bitstamp and other exchanges lag behind when there is a rally. This isn't news. Has been this way since MtGox grew to become the largest exchange.
If you want to get some perspective on how large of a discrepancy 20% is, just take a look at the variance chart. I plotted the average daily value of Gox vs Bitstamp. But for the price movement within the last 12 hrs, I picked a time period early in the morning where the discrepancy was highest. Not only did the variance hit a record high of 14.68% Sunday (full day weighted average price), but it exploded through that to 20%.
This is because it was difficult to deposit at btc-e (or costly).
It is even more costly to withdraw from BTC-E. This is mostly about trust.13:49
Lowering a bit. Rally at MtGox, and Bitstamp follows as usual. Just lags a bit behind. Expect the difference to fall more as it catches up and the rally ends at MtGox.
+1. It is not like 50% or more arbitrage opportunities never existed before in Bitcoin. I have exploited quite a few, and two days of SEPA transfer time has generally not been a hinder to exploitation. Not at this volume, of course. 5% has been normal for a long time between BTC-E and more trusted exchanges. >3% between BTC-E and Bitstamp now, for example.
I absolutely agree. But those either existed for a short period of time, or had a limited spread. We are talking about a sustained 10% spread for 7+ days! And a sustained spread of over 5% for a month!This is because it was difficult to deposit at btc-e (or costly).
+1. It is not like 50% or more arbitrage opportunities never existed before in Bitcoin. I have exploited quite a few, and two days of SEPA transfer time has generally not been a hinder to exploitation. Not at this volume, of course. 5% has been normal for a long time between BTC-E and more trusted exchanges. >3% between BTC-E and Bitstamp now, for example.
I absolutely agree. But those either existed for a short period of time, or had a limited spread. We are talking about a sustained 10% spread for 7+ days! And a sustained spread of over 5% for a month!No, it is a very poor analysis. Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds. With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months! The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it. The arb exists because it can't be realized.
Microsecond arbitrage opportunity is only true in very mature market, such as Forex. And even that, there are ample arbitrage opportunities in that market if you talked to the experience forex traders.But this is not true for the Bitcoin market because it is full of novice armchair investors (like zeroblock) that can only TALK in forum without taking any ACTION to exploit the situation.
I absolutely agree. But those either existed for a short period of time, or had a limited spread. We are talking about a sustained 10% spread for 7+ days! And a sustained spread of over 5% for a month!
No, it is a very poor analysis. Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds. With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months! The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it. The arb exists because it can't be realized.
Microsecond arbitrage opportunity is only true in very mature market, such as Forex. And even that, there are ample arbitrage opportunities in that market if you talked to the experience forex traders.But this is not true for the Bitcoin market because it is full of novice armchair investors (like zeroblock) that can only TALK in forum without taking any ACTION to exploit the situation.
The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist! (or it is probably some whales with priority wires taking advantage of the spread). So in the context of tracking the price variance, one would choose daily values since this variance has existed for over 2 months.
You can do arbitrage trading between exchanges without actually moving any funds. It won't be possible to take advantage of the current crazy MtGox situation, but as long there are only fluctuations around a fairly fixed spread you can buy on one exchange and sell on the other when the difference is one way, and trade the opposite way when the difference switches. No, it is a very poor analysis. Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds. With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months! The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it. The arb exists because it can't be realized.
Microsecond arbitrage opportunity is only true in very mature market, such as Forex. And even that, there are ample arbitrage opportunities in that market if you talked to the experience forex traders.
But this is not true for the Bitcoin market because it is full of novice armchair investors (like zeroblock) that can only TALK in forum without taking any ACTION to exploit the situation.
No, it is a very poor analysis. Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds. With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months! The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it. The arb exists because it can't be realized.
hahahaha
where do you see increase in BTC/JPY volume?
Can anyone confirm receiving any cash form mt.gox last weeks?
Can anyone confirm receiving any cash form mt.gox last weeks?
Quote from: zeroblock link=topic=179586.msg2961957#msg2961957
The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist! (or it is probably some whales with priority wires taking advantage of the spread). So in the context of tracking the price variance, one would choose daily values since this variance has existed for over 2 months.
If no one is doing arbitrage trade, prices on other exchanges wont be following the same upward (and even downward) trend as gox.
Let's assume that the people that are willing to suffer lost and buy coins on mtgox at inflated price are in need of their cash (instead of waiting for 8-12 weeks to get the money via the withdrawal queue)
If many such panic gox buyers are now selling their coins or other exchanges, the proper market behavior we should see is that other exchanges price will go down -- not staying stable, nor increase in price.
The reality:
* Arbitrage trade is happening
* More panic buyers than arbitrage traders
* Very few Japanese investors are aware of the current opportunities to take advantage of it yet -- but this is changing, as can be seen as the raising number of JPY on mtgox recently.
I think this is a pretty good analysis. If this is true, and the 10 swift wire transfer limit is also true, then this should also cause the queue to shorten / quicken, as people cancel their withdrawals and buy bitcoin instead.
No, it is a very poor analysis. Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds. With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months! The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it. The arb exists because it can't be realized.
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