* Very few Japanese investors are aware of the current opportunities to take advantage of it yet -- but this is changing, as can be seen as the raising number of JPY on mtgox recently.
Looks like this is changing. BTC/JPY volume at MtGox last 24h is more than 1/4 of BTC/USD volume at Bitstamp, and rivals BTC/USD volume at BTC-E. Not all of this is going to withdrawal of course, but I assume a large part of it is. At 14% price difference, some are looking at a huge profit. Probably still not enough to equalize the prices, but perhaps enough to reduce the difference somewhat. 
Topic: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] - page 310. (Read 908613 times)
Quote from: zeroblock link=topic=179586.msg2961957#msg2961957
The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist! (or it is probably some whales with priority wires taking advantage of the spread). So in the context of tracking the price variance, one would choose daily values since this variance has existed for over 2 months.
If no one is doing arbitrage trade, prices on other exchanges wont be following the same upward (and even downward) trend as gox.
Let's assume that the people that are willing to suffer lost and buy coins on mtgox at inflated price are in need of their cash (instead of waiting for 8-12 weeks to get the money via the withdrawal queue)
If many such panic gox buyers are now selling their coins or other exchanges, the proper market behavior we should see is that other exchanges price will go down -- not staying stable, nor increase in price.
The reality:
* Arbitrage trade is happening
* More panic buyers than arbitrage traders
* Very few Japanese investors are aware of the current opportunities to take advantage of it yet -- but this is changing, as can be seen as the raising number of JPY on mtgox recently.
I think this is a pretty good analysis. If this is true, and the 10 swift wire transfer limit is also true, then this should also cause the queue to shorten / quicken, as people cancel their withdrawals and buy bitcoin instead.
Quote from: zeroblock link=topic=179586.msg2961957#msg2961957
The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist! (or it is probably some whales with priority wires taking advantage of the spread). So in the context of tracking the price variance, one would choose daily values since this variance has existed for over 2 months.
If no one is doing arbitrage trade, prices on other exchanges wont be following the same upward (and even downward) trend as gox.
Let's assume that the people that are willing to suffer lost and buy coins on mtgox at inflated price are in need of their cash (instead of waiting for 8-12 weeks to get the money via the withdrawal queue)
If many such panic gox buyers are now selling their coins or other exchanges, the proper market behavior we should see is that other exchanges price will go down -- not staying stable, nor increase in price.
The reality:
* Arbitrage trade is happening
* More panic buyers than arbitrage traders
* Very few Japanese investors are aware of the current opportunities to take advantage of it yet -- but this is changing, as can be seen as the raising number of JPY on mtgox recently.
I just don't understand why more people aren't able to get domestic japanese accounts. If I had a japanese account i would be moving far more than 50-100k a day ...
The most accurate way to plot the variance would be to take daily weighted price. Choosing the smoothed data is much better than plotting variations on the minute by minute or hour by hour.
No, it's just different. If you want to do arbitrage trading then tracking second to second variation will give you the best result.The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist! (or it is probably some whales with priority wires taking advantage of the spread). So in the context of tracking the price variance, one would choose daily values since this variance has existed for over 2 months.
+1
The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist!
Oh, yes. Some people are, but not enough. Check JPY volume. Domestic JPY withdrawal is next day, but SWIFT transfer to other exchanges take some time. Looks like between 50k and 100k USD are transferred via JPY every day. The most accurate way to plot the variance would be to take daily weighted price. Choosing the smoothed data is much better than plotting variations on the minute by minute or hour by hour.
No, it's just different. If you want to do arbitrage trading then tracking second to second variation will give you the best result.The point is that no one is doing arb trading otherwise the spread wouldn't exist! (or it is probably some whales with priority wires taking advantage of the spread). So in the context of tracking the price variance, one would choose daily values since this variance has existed for over 2 months.
WHOA! The bank run is starting!
The most accurate way to plot the variance would be to take daily weighted price. Choosing the smoothed data is much better than plotting variations on the minute by minute or hour by hour.
No, it's just different. If you want to do arbitrage trading then tracking second to second variation will give you the best result. 
It's starting to be exciting.
The spread just took a big jump.
▲ mtgoxUSD 118.9900
▲ bitstampUSD 99.9900
Spread: 19%
What happened?
▲ mtgoxUSD 118.9900
▲ bitstampUSD 99.9900
Spread: 19%
What happened?
As each day passes, and MtGox is no nearer getting back to normal withdrawal times, the market is slowly ratcheting up the probability of their sudden closure. Any fiat and coins will then be trapped. MtGox has prior form when it comes to not releasing other people's property:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/the-biggest-thief-in-the-bitcoinica-debacle-mtgox-260225
The spread just took a big jump.
▲ mtgoxUSD 118.9900
▲ bitstampUSD 99.9900
Spread: 19%
What happened?
▲ mtgoxUSD 118.9900
▲ bitstampUSD 99.9900
Spread: 19%
What happened?
Must have been taken just after some large trade. Here are my samples from the time around my post (timestamps in CET):
20:12 mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 9.43015538326 %.
20:53 mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 9.80714742711 %.
22:18 mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 9.15855226897 %.
Currently:
07:18 mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 9.95425434584 %.
Far below the 12% to 14% from a couple of days ago.
20:12
20:53
22:18
Currently:
07:18
Far below the 12% to 14% from a couple of days ago.
That is a lie. Those numbers are completely fabricated, or chosen as the lowest values in a minute by minute range. Mt.Gox/Bitstamp variance hasn't been lower than 10% since 8/9.
These values were taken from Bitcoincharts.com. Would you like to provide your source? I'd love to see it.
09:35
09:35
The samples were taken at random times. The samples in your graph seems to be very far apart, and is certainly not accurate enough to prove anyone a liar.
The most accurate way to plot the variance would be to take daily weighted price. Choosing the smoothed data is much better than plotting variations on the minute by minute or hour by hour.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
Does anybody know how much was seized by the feds in the Dwolla / Mutum Sigillum incident?
Arbitragemillions which could come handy to Gox e.g. in order to counterbalance Dwolla seizure and pay for legal expenses?
All members of Mt. Gox are prohibited by Japanese law to trade on their own market. That would be insider trading and thus a criminal offense. Gox has always stressed, that they don't do it.
There are simply too many conspiracy theories. Even if Gox suddenly pay off everyone it would interpreted negatively. I'm sure at 100%.
The jp transfers might make it in 2 or 3 days until perhaps some day they don't. Who knows for sure anything what is actually going on?
in any case, having a bank account in Japan could be worth arbitragemillions
Arbitragemillions which could come handy to Gox e.g. in order to counterbalance Dwolla seizure and pay for legal expenses?
Can't help thinking there is a possibility that we all are being played big time.
Might be harsh but after all we are moving in libertarian fuckall territory.
The jp transfers might make it in 2 or 3 days until perhaps some day they don't. Who knows for sure anything what is actually going on?
in any case, having a bank account in Japan could be worth arbitragemillions
In think with an account in Germany is possible too. Albeit much more modest.
See:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/arbitrage-uber-bitcoinde-sicherheit-276993
The jp transfers might make it in 2 or 3 days until perhaps some day they don't. Who knows for sure anything what is actually going on?
in any case, having a bank account in Japan could be worth arbitragemillions
This is the Week. I'm transferring everything I've got with MTgox to Bitstamp by the end of the week. I've stopped trading at MTgox last week.
The jp transfers might make it in 2 or 3 days until perhaps some day they don't. Who knows for sure anything what is actually going on?
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