Friendly bump for the pool
The current block is taking quite some time, other then the down due to the attacks, did the attacks themselves cause issues which would result in it taking longer....
It is taking a long time, I doubt it's related to the attacks , more like just sh*t luck. At the pools current hash rate of 4017.55 GH/s it should take
roughly 8 days 18 hours to solve a block . Right we are into hour 343 of trying to solve this block. Thats about 5.5 days longer than average luck would expect us to slove it in.
The last block we solved in 147 hrs and the one before in only 6 hrs!
Like anything else in life. You win some and you loose some.
Time is a horrible indicator for the "luck" a pool has. Your estimate of 8 day and 18 hours is based off a snapshot of the pool's hash rate, when in reality it fluctuates. Time can't and shouldn't be used as a measurement for "luck". But shares can..too many people judge a pool by time and it's just not fair. The difficulty is measured in shares, so judge a pool's "luck" by the number of shares in the current round. At the time of this writing, current shares solved in this round is at 2.3B and difficulty is at 707M, so this round technically hasn't been that long (show me a pool that hasn't seen multiple rounds over 2B shares, the fact that this is our first 2B+ shares round, the pool should be considered to actually have good "luck").
Nicely written. Some miners still don't measure luck in terms of the number of difficulty 1 shares as fractions of (or multiples of) difficulty, but it's the only way to get a basic idea of how lucky a pool is.
For an even better idea, calculate
1 - exp(-shares/difficulty).
This will give you the lower tail probability of a single block requiring a particular number of shares to solve it. In your post you mention 2.3e09 shares with difficulty 7.07e08 which means the current round is at ~ 3.25 x difficulty. Using the calculation above, the CDF is 1-exp(-2.3e09/707e06) ~ 0.961, meaning that 96% of the time a pool somewhere will solve a block more quickly. This week more than 1300 blocks were solved, so in the last seven days alone around 52 blocks will have been less "lucky" than the current Triplemining round.