nrd525 Market Tracker - page 19. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Samarkand

sr. member

Activity: 658

Merit: 282

Quote from: nrd525 on September 08, 2018, 11:03:53 PM

BTC dominance 56%. ETH 190 (recent low of 185). BTC holding on at 6180 (surprisingly stlil above 6k). How much of this is Vitalik saying something along the lines of ETH could fall to zero?

I think BTC is holding these levels, because the current price
is only marginally above the average cost of mining a single
Bitcoin.

I don´t think Vitalik´s statements have anything to do with
the ETH decline. It is just a combination of a lack of interest
in ICOs (only 3 ICOs raised more than 25M $ in the 3rd quarter
of 2018 so far) and previous ICOs that are looking to liquidate their
ETH, which is providing continuous downward pressure on the
ETH price.

Better to get rid of ETH at 190 $ than at 40 $ (a price level,
which is not too far away).

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

BTC dominance 56%. ETH 190 (recent low of 185). BTC holding on at 6180 (surprisingly stlil above 6k). How much of this is Vitalik saying something along the lines of ETH could fall to zero?

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

Bitcoin dominance at 55% (btc at 6900 just fell 400). Yearly high.
ETH yearly low (240).

Dogecoin is holding up well =)

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

Housing prices are high

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPCS20RSA

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

US stocks (at least SP 500) at new ATH.

If we get a synchronized stock market bear market and recession in the next 6-12 months, that'd be very bearish for btc. I'm concerned that it might take longer, and come after we'd already established a btc bottom.

MtGox rehabilitation - users getting 25% (or up to 30% at the current price) of their BTC and USD. They are reimbursing btc, instead of the USD equivalent which means enforced holding.

I'm wondering if the Bitcoinica liquidators will reimburse with a percent of BTC or convert at $10/btc.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

I was looking at volume and Bitforex, a completely new exchange, appears #1.
https://support.bitforex.com/hc/en-us/articles/360008808391-BF-Mining

'BF Mining Proportion: 120% of trading fees will be distributed in form of BF Token; among 120%, 80% are circulating BF, 40% are holding BF."

120%? Is this a Binance / exchange fee coin combined with a ponzi or pyramid (aka proof of stake)?

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

Note: Bitcoinwisdom misses out on data. I just realized this when comparing it to Cryptowatch. It doesn't always have the same high as low.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

The alt-coin blood bath continues. I wonder if this is putting a pause in BTC's decline? If so we might see the return to alternating very short periods (1-3 days) of trading activity (either bullish or bearish - as in up to 10%/day) moves by bitcoin and altcoins. Or we might see an even deeper altcoin bloodbath leading to bitcoin's final push to the bottom.

btc dominance 52.3%

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

Yes, but I don't know if Bitfinex would let those companies register on their site. I think they are really worried about US regulators and their use of tokens and/or Tether.

...

It's a common, and potentially false meme, that bitcoin attacks the state and banks. It might be more of an attack on gold (and other asset classes - perhaps a much weaker attack on property, art, stock, etc).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/965tnj/dont_buy_bitcoin/

I commented:
"I've been using the banking system more often ever since I got into Bitcoin. And I've been supporting the state (which I don't like) with increasing tax payments."

TheQuin

hero member

Activity: 2576

Merit: 883

Freebitco.in Support https://bit.ly/2I9BVS2

Quote from: nrd525 on August 09, 2018, 02:40:35 PM

Maybe the verification process which I think requires that you reveal the name/address of your LLC directors gives it away.

Some tax havens require the directors to be locals meaning many people offer their services and are making a nice little income for signing a few pieces of paper. It might just be a coincidence that it makes it very difficult to find out who the real owners of the company are.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

BFX removing US corporate customers around August 15:

https://support.bitfinex.com/hc/en-us/articles/115003461254-US-Residents-Frequently-Asked-Questions

If swap rates are higher it'd be worth incorporating an offshore LLC, but currently they suck. Though I'm not sure if the terms even allow for off-shore LLCs. It sounds like you need to have $10 million in assets and they need to approve you at their disgression. But how do they know that your offshore LLC is controlled by a US person(s)? Maybe the verification process which I think requires that you reveal the name/address of your LLC directors gives it away.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

Good overview.
https://medium.com/@tuurdemeester/bitcoin-we-dont-expect-new-highs-in-2018-97e6a7a385f7

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

Most altcoins below their YTD low. Bitcoin at 6300 (recent low of 6128).

Just skimmed the local Philadelphia housing market report and we're down to 0% growth over the past year. Two quarters ago we had 11% annual growth, and for the past 4 years we had a robust market with 5-10% annual growth. Sales and prices are still high, but we're looking like the housing market could be at its peak and might plateau here for a couple years until the next recession (Assuming Amazon doesn't put their second HQ in our city - which is a 1/20 chance).

If you are brave enough to hold altcoins you might start seeing some great swap rates if/when the shorts pile on. Though currently the LTC swap rate is a mere 0.01%/day on BFX.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

According to CoinMarketCap Tethers decreased from 2.7 billion to 2.4 billion over the past three weeks. This is the second time that Tether market cap has decreased by a significant amount (last time was around May 12, 2018.) While this is bearish news short to medium term, it would be amazing (in terms of Tether rumors) if Tether redeemed a billion dollars. Though if they are redeeming it with entries in an exchange's database, it might not prove anything.

Bitcoin dominance at 48.2%. Alts tanking. Ethereum testing its 2018 all time low.

Hope to see everyone at 3k by the end of the year =)

Housing markets might be cooling off (though locally in my neighborhood things are still heated - someone remodels a house on the block, sells for 650k, then the new owner(s) does *additional* renovations -- including paving over their small front yard with cement (is this evidence of dumb money buying the top?).

Trade war, overheated economy, and higher interest rates could trigger a recession.

BFX swap rates suck (< 7% APR on USD).

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

I got the chart from watching Tone Vay's interview of Willy Woo. Lots of stuff that can be skipped (both of them are generally Bitcoin maximalists, though Willy Woo has made some money on alt-coins and ICOs). Unfortunately a wide-ranging conversation that didn't focus as much on the NVT as I'd have liked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BIT_u0rbco

The NVT ratio (http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-ratio/) and NVT signal (http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-signal/) have Bitcoin overvalued by about as bad as they ever indicate. Willy Woo says he has sold almost all his BTC and is waiting for the dip.

On the NVT charts, we're also looking similar to July/August 2014.

I think it's a moving average that includes both the past 14 days and the future 14 days - which makes it less of a predictor! Or perhaps treat it like it has a two week lag?

Lightning Networks should make this analysis harder. I also wonder about the impact of the Bitcoin Cash fork. That probably caused some people to move their funds, but might have been washed out on the indicators by the bull market.

Samarkand

sr. member

Activity: 658

Merit: 282

Quote from: nrd525 on July 29, 2018, 09:44:55 PM

http://charts.woobull.com

Thank you for sharing this link.

I was pretty surprised to see how low the Bitcoin velocity has become:
http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-velocity/

If I read the chart correctly, the Bitcoin velocity is near an all-time low and
the only period where the velocity was at a similar level was in 2010 (apart
from a short period of time in 2014). This would imply that BTC has drifted even further away from being
used as a payment mechanism. On the one hand you could view this
as a sign that Bitcoin has failed if you believe that Bitcoin was intended to be
a P2P Electronic Cash system. On the other hand you could also interpret this
development as extremely bullish, because this would confirm that Bitcoin
is moving towards a system for the settlement of high-value transactions while other
use cases are increasingly pushed to second-layer solutions.

Additionally, I would have expected an increase in Bitcoin velocity due to SegWit,
transaction batching and other measures that have lowered the transaction fees
in the last few months. But again the linked chart defies this expectation.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

http://charts.woobull.com

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

This healthy bounce from 6k to 8.2k (now) is looking good.

I also like how bitcoin's market share is at the year ATH (47.5%).

If this is on rumors of a bitcoin ETF being approved it is interesting that the GBTC premium last time we neared a potential approval fell to near 0%. Whereas now the GBTC premium is still very high (48% -- https://www.neotechdevs.com/gbtc/). With an ETF the demand for GBTC should decrease and the premium fall to near 0% (unless there is another use case for it or if there is some weird manipulation).

Are these ponzi/gambling games the biggest Dapps on Ether (bigger than CryptoKitties)? I skimmed it and didn't quite understand how the schemes worked. Making your scam needlessly complex to fool users is a classic ponzi tactic.
https://www.coindesk.com/scam-or-be-scammed-ponzi-games-are-breaking-out-on-ethereum/

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

I guess the Tethers were printed around July 12. Though we still don't have (significantly) more Tethers than July 1.

I only knew a fraction of the cases of hacking of MtGox.
https://blog.bitmex.com/the-june-2011-flash-crash-to-0-01/

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

BTC up $700 in 2 hours on no news. No tethers printed (so far as I can tell). Biggest two day rise since April.

Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 19. (Read 83024 times)