A bunch of people have been getting hacked recently (ex. see this very strange video from Philakone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bbbmdO1_mE, and also Tone Vays and Leah Wald Tyler got hacked -- though not as seriously). I recommend using 2FA over SMS (as phone numbers can be stolen - transferred to another phone). You might also consider a dedicated 2FA device (like a cheap mobile phone that isn't linked to your phone number, and that you are unlikely to lose -- or some kind of USB key like a Yubikey).
Tone Vays does a good 40 minute talk on the Tech Bubble - starting at around 4:30 in. Q/A is more crypto related (and mostly generic if you follow his ideas).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xMO3nnfnlo
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 22. (Read 83111 times)
If you have any BTC, I'd expect to see a good spike in the BTC lending rate at Bitfinex - as we go deeply bearish (I'm hoping for a spike to 0.19%/day - though would settle for half that). Unfortunately Poloniex rates suck.
Reviewing my past taxes, I've made a good number of BTC from lending. There aren't many spikes, but they add up.
Reviewing my past taxes, I've made a good number of BTC from lending. There aren't many spikes, but they add up.
Placed some bids starting at 5200ish and going down from there. It's looking bearish.
I realized recently that I might not be as well in tune with the level of despair as I actually want bitcoin to go down. Whereas 2014-2015, I was buying on the way down starting at a much higher level ($600) and holding a considerable amount and had large (paper) capital losses. Perhaps I've become too hardened and too accepting of the price dropping.
I realized recently that I might not be as well in tune with the level of despair as I actually want bitcoin to go down. Whereas 2014-2015, I was buying on the way down starting at a much higher level ($600) and holding a considerable amount and had large (paper) capital losses. Perhaps I've become too hardened and too accepting of the price dropping.
December 06, 2017, 06:34:46 AM
"We could see a big blow-off top around the time the CME goes through. So December 18. I've got no real idea, but something like a run at 15k or 20k followed by a crash to 7-9k would be along the lines of what is possible."
If you make enough predictions, you are likely to get one of them right!
"We could see a big blow-off top around the time the CME goes through. So December 18. I've got no real idea, but something like a run at 15k or 20k followed by a crash to 7-9k would be along the lines of what is possible."
If you make enough predictions, you are likely to get one of them right!
Why didn't I listen?!?
December 06, 2017, 06:34:46 AM
"We could see a big blow-off top around the time the CME goes through. So December 18. I've got no real idea, but something like a run at 15k or 20k followed by a crash to 7-9k would be along the lines of what is possible."
If you make enough predictions, you are likely to get one of them right!
"We could see a big blow-off top around the time the CME goes through. So December 18. I've got no real idea, but something like a run at 15k or 20k followed by a crash to 7-9k would be along the lines of what is possible."
If you make enough predictions, you are likely to get one of them right!
>>So I'm shorting XRP, LTC, BTG, BCH, ETH, EOS, XMR, IOTA, and OMG on bitfinex. Unfortunately only a total of 9k. Up a lot (10% to 39%), but lost far more on my 5 >>remaining BTC.
>>Bitcoin dominance is at 36%. It should hit at least 40% if not 45% - as we continue to bear down.
If I would have held this position I would have done a lot better on it. As this mix of alt-coins has largely gone down after I sold them (and even with bitcoin up 15% since I closed this short). Notably XRP which I closed part of my short position at 97 cents. And how about that bitcoin dominance guess of 40-45%?
Of course day trading is for idiots (and people with insider information)! I must resist the urge =)
I'm redoing my past taxes and drooling over all the bitcoins I cheaply bought (and regretting all the small trades that make my spreadsheet insanely complicated).
If anyone is on Bitfinex, we should do a campaign to get them to let you export 12 months of trading data! If GDAX can do it, they should be able to as well.
...
Does anyone use the Trading View charting library? I'm integrating it with PredictIt.org data (political predictions website). I could use some technical advice. Also if you ever want to get into PredictIt - pm me. Unfortunately I think the website has become increasingly difficult to make money as users have gained experienced and are pricing contracts relatively accurately. Though I recently made an easy $45 on a pump of a worthless contract (someone pumped a Russian presidential candidate to 35 cents after all the votes were counted and they had lost second place by over 10% - as they has only got 1% of the votes).
I'm working on making data models for PredictIt to make money.
But it might be a lot easier to just buy bitcoin at 3k =)
>>Bitcoin dominance is at 36%. It should hit at least 40% if not 45% - as we continue to bear down.
If I would have held this position I would have done a lot better on it. As this mix of alt-coins has largely gone down after I sold them (and even with bitcoin up 15% since I closed this short). Notably XRP which I closed part of my short position at 97 cents. And how about that bitcoin dominance guess of 40-45%?
Of course day trading is for idiots (and people with insider information)! I must resist the urge =)
I'm redoing my past taxes and drooling over all the bitcoins I cheaply bought (and regretting all the small trades that make my spreadsheet insanely complicated).
If anyone is on Bitfinex, we should do a campaign to get them to let you export 12 months of trading data! If GDAX can do it, they should be able to as well.
...
Does anyone use the Trading View charting library? I'm integrating it with PredictIt.org data (political predictions website). I could use some technical advice. Also if you ever want to get into PredictIt - pm me. Unfortunately I think the website has become increasingly difficult to make money as users have gained experienced and are pricing contracts relatively accurately. Though I recently made an easy $45 on a pump of a worthless contract (someone pumped a Russian presidential candidate to 35 cents after all the votes were counted and they had lost second place by over 10% - as they has only got 1% of the votes).
I'm working on making data models for PredictIt to make money.
But it might be a lot easier to just buy bitcoin at 3k =)
Trump wants to overheat the economy (he profits directly from a housing bubble). But the Republican party (and Federal Reserve) might not let him. Typical Republican tax cuts don't lead to strong economic growth as they target rich people and/or corporations - so they have a smaller impact on jobs and consumption.
"The Fed’s interest rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee, said in a statement that it expects inflation to reach its 2 percent target “in the coming months.” The committee unanimously agreed to raise its main borrowing rate to between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent, the first action taken under new Chairman Jerome Powell.
There is some good news for Trump. Fed officials upgraded their forecast for economic growth this year and next, projecting a 2.7 percent increase in GDP in 2018 and a 2.4 percent increase in 2019. But over the longer term, the central bank still expects growth to hover at or below 2 percent.
Trump is aiming for sustained annual GDP growth of 3 percent."
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/21/fed-raises-interest-rates-future-hikes-434469
I'm hoping bitcoin hits 3k (next 12 months), and then goes back to 10-50k (20-36 months) - allowing me to buy in and sell out before we get a recession. Though I'm thinking the recession is 20-36 months away so the timing might be tight. All of this with huge confidence intervals.
"The Fed’s interest rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee, said in a statement that it expects inflation to reach its 2 percent target “in the coming months.” The committee unanimously agreed to raise its main borrowing rate to between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent, the first action taken under new Chairman Jerome Powell.
There is some good news for Trump. Fed officials upgraded their forecast for economic growth this year and next, projecting a 2.7 percent increase in GDP in 2018 and a 2.4 percent increase in 2019. But over the longer term, the central bank still expects growth to hover at or below 2 percent.
Trump is aiming for sustained annual GDP growth of 3 percent."
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/21/fed-raises-interest-rates-future-hikes-434469
I'm hoping bitcoin hits 3k (next 12 months), and then goes back to 10-50k (20-36 months) - allowing me to buy in and sell out before we get a recession. Though I'm thinking the recession is 20-36 months away so the timing might be tight. All of this with huge confidence intervals.
If you want to have some fun, research Clif High and his "WebBot". People pay for his predictions which include crypto currency as well as earthquakes. His methodology may be anything from outright scamming to a convoluted pseudo-scientific method that is no better than astrology.
You can try to predict the bitcoin price using social media data (though not earthquakes!) - however he doesn't appear to know what he is doing and disguises everything with technobabble.
He has a significant following on YouTube.
He likes to pick very strange numbers for price targets.
You can try to predict the bitcoin price using social media data (though not earthquakes!) - however he doesn't appear to know what he is doing and disguises everything with technobabble.
He has a significant following on YouTube.
He likes to pick very strange numbers for price targets.
MtGox liquidator sells 30k BTC. Did they cause the recent crash? I think we were overdue - but they probably added pressure.
I doubt it had any effect. From the wording in the official document, I think they probably sold it off over a period of several months in a number of OTC trades. It was 35k BTC @ an average price of $10,0026.92.
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180307_report.pdf
"Between the 9th creditors’ meeting and this creditors’ meeting, with the permission
of the court, I sold a certain amount of BTC and bitcoin cash (“BCC”) that
belonged to the bankruptcy estate."
Hard fork coins: Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Diamond, and Super Bitcoin - at all time lows. Notably Bitcoin Diamond down to $3.80. I think I sold for $15+.
MtGox liquidator sells 30k BTC. Did they cause the recent crash? I think we were overdue - but they probably added pressure.
More SEC regulation and Japan regulation of exchanges.
Watched a couple Youtube videos on hyperwaves (a bubblish wave that is very similar to the hype cycle meme). Made a lot of sense (as much as that kind of technical analysis can make), until the person argued that we were in stage 2 out of 7 (eg. modest growth of an insane wave - eg 100k+ target) and that this 70% correction was just a blip. Whereas if we're in stage 7 (which fits the chart), we're headed to 1k.
More SEC regulation and Japan regulation of exchanges.
Watched a couple Youtube videos on hyperwaves (a bubblish wave that is very similar to the hype cycle meme). Made a lot of sense (as much as that kind of technical analysis can make), until the person argued that we were in stage 2 out of 7 (eg. modest growth of an insane wave - eg 100k+ target) and that this 70% correction was just a blip. Whereas if we're in stage 7 (which fits the chart), we're headed to 1k.
Bitcoin dominance at 41.8%. Up 9% from the bottom on Jan 4.
So we continue to have a nice bounce/recovery from the long-term bear trend. I still think the bear trend is intact (1-2 years). It just might take a very long time for people to realize it.
I finished reading "The Great Taiwan Bubble" and have read most of "The Bubble Economy" (Japan). The first book is a more entertaining read (if you only want to read one). In both cases, the stock market's fell around 80% from their 1990 peak to trough. Taiwan fell quickly (a couple years), whereas Japan took 13 years. While Taiwan's bubble was greater (stock market hit 100 P/E), the Japanese one was more severe as it came with an even more insane property bubble.
A major difference between the cryptocurrency bubble and these prior ones is that there is a lack of consensus about cryptocurrencies. Unlike the stock markets in Taiwan and Japan which almost everyone said could only go up, and were supported by self-interested corporations, politicians, and financial journalists - bitcoin and other cryptos have received a lot of negative media coverage (and negative statements by major economists, politicians, experts, etc). Also there is the ability to short most crytos (though not the ICOs), which wasn't available during the Japanese bubble (so far as I can tell?) and may have only been partially available in Taiwan (does anyone know?).
In Japan, there was a strong web of ties and self-interest connecting corporations with each other and the banks - as they held stock in each other and often only a minority of the stocks are liquid. The property market was even more illiquid. Illiquid markets are easier to manipulate. We've seen this is the alt-coins and the GBTC premium.
In crypto there is a web of self-interest as the currencies generally rise and fall together. So there is some inter-fighting and criticism, but not as much as there should be. Also almost everyone is long - so the price is of paramount importance. There is a web of self-interest and ties between investors, crypto businesses, exchanges, crypto news media, ICOs, developers, researchers, etc. For instance, we have no idea of how much crypto currencies the reporters and crypto news media holds (does mainstream media have disclosure or ethics rules for their journalists owning stocks? I'm guessing they do.). It's also very hard to short a bubble - so the would-be shorters are mostly staying away. All of this can produce a relative consensus in the in-group that blockchain is going to radically change the world. When you're only getting criticism from outsiders, it's much easier to ignore reason (see the global warming debate).
Is there any research, books, articles, in to "group think" which might be applicable?
I'm going to read "Dot Con " next. Any other suggestions? Maybe I should balance it out by reading about "bubbles" that actually turned out to be revolutionary changes, so they were actually properly priced.
I finished reading "The Great Taiwan Bubble" and have read most of "The Bubble Economy" (Japan). The first book is a more entertaining read (if you only want to read one). In both cases, the stock market's fell around 80% from their 1990 peak to trough. Taiwan fell quickly (a couple years), whereas Japan took 13 years. While Taiwan's bubble was greater (stock market hit 100 P/E), the Japanese one was more severe as it came with an even more insane property bubble.
A major difference between the cryptocurrency bubble and these prior ones is that there is a lack of consensus about cryptocurrencies. Unlike the stock markets in Taiwan and Japan which almost everyone said could only go up, and were supported by self-interested corporations, politicians, and financial journalists - bitcoin and other cryptos have received a lot of negative media coverage (and negative statements by major economists, politicians, experts, etc). Also there is the ability to short most crytos (though not the ICOs), which wasn't available during the Japanese bubble (so far as I can tell?) and may have only been partially available in Taiwan (does anyone know?).
In Japan, there was a strong web of ties and self-interest connecting corporations with each other and the banks - as they held stock in each other and often only a minority of the stocks are liquid. The property market was even more illiquid. Illiquid markets are easier to manipulate. We've seen this is the alt-coins and the GBTC premium.
In crypto there is a web of self-interest as the currencies generally rise and fall together. So there is some inter-fighting and criticism, but not as much as there should be. Also almost everyone is long - so the price is of paramount importance. There is a web of self-interest and ties between investors, crypto businesses, exchanges, crypto news media, ICOs, developers, researchers, etc. For instance, we have no idea of how much crypto currencies the reporters and crypto news media holds (does mainstream media have disclosure or ethics rules for their journalists owning stocks? I'm guessing they do.). It's also very hard to short a bubble - so the would-be shorters are mostly staying away. All of this can produce a relative consensus in the in-group that blockchain is going to radically change the world. When you're only getting criticism from outsiders, it's much easier to ignore reason (see the global warming debate).
Is there any research, books, articles, in to "group think" which might be applicable?
I'm going to read "Dot Con " next. Any other suggestions? Maybe I should balance it out by reading about "bubbles" that actually turned out to be revolutionary changes, so they were actually properly priced.
Bitfinex might be changing their policies regarding US corporate customers. They haven't announced anything or changed their Terms of Service. But there are several reports (I think I've seen three) of them stopping corporations from doing margin lending (and one of them was also doing margin trading).
I'm fine with the end of margin trading, but if they stop margin lending I might have to setup a foreign LLC which would be a major pain.
As I'm running an unverified account, I haven't been prevented from either of these activities - though I stopped margin trading. And I'm not hiding my US IP address.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitfinex
I'm fine with the end of margin trading, but if they stop margin lending I might have to setup a foreign LLC which would be a major pain.
As I'm running an unverified account, I haven't been prevented from either of these activities - though I stopped margin trading. And I'm not hiding my US IP address.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitfinex
Some interesting possible swap rate manipulation on BFX. The USD rate had fallen to 0.023%/day. So now one or more whales have removed enough supply to drive the rates back up to 0.3%/day. There is only $100-$300k below 0.3%/day and most of the remaining swap is a $23 million wall at 0.5%/day.
Good time to close my shorts and put it all into margin lending! I'll be very happy if I can make 10% APR for 2018 on Bitfinex.
Good time to close my shorts and put it all into margin lending! I'll be very happy if I can make 10% APR for 2018 on Bitfinex.
In the next year (or possibly 18 months) bitcoin is probably going to fall hard. It's just going to take us bursting the alt-coin / ICO bubble which could take a full year. So I think it makes sense to wait for the first round of alt-coin collapses. For instance if XRP falls to 10 cents and brings Stellar and any other related banking coins down with it. Or if all the distributed app coins crash.
While 2020 is looking bullish as we'll have another wave of technological innovation, projects putting out products, and bitcoin halving - 2021 could be another bear market if the Democrats win back the White House and decide to regulate. Though I'm guessing that by then the regulation will be relatively in place. And the Democrats are unlikely to do much more regulation than the Republicans (unless the crypto currency market cap gets so big that it causes a financial crisis when it collapses), as they are both in the pocket of Wall Street and capitalism.
Most of the reason to hold bitcoin is to make money speculating. Many of the hardcore technology enthusiasts have already seen a bear market and are not going to want to hold through another one. Most of the new speculators are going to panic sell the bottom (or near the bottom).
The stock market is also looking like a better investment alternative with the 10% dip in the US.
While 2020 is looking bullish as we'll have another wave of technological innovation, projects putting out products, and bitcoin halving - 2021 could be another bear market if the Democrats win back the White House and decide to regulate. Though I'm guessing that by then the regulation will be relatively in place. And the Democrats are unlikely to do much more regulation than the Republicans (unless the crypto currency market cap gets so big that it causes a financial crisis when it collapses), as they are both in the pocket of Wall Street and capitalism.
Most of the reason to hold bitcoin is to make money speculating. Many of the hardcore technology enthusiasts have already seen a bear market and are not going to want to hold through another one. Most of the new speculators are going to panic sell the bottom (or near the bottom).
The stock market is also looking like a better investment alternative with the 10% dip in the US.
Too late to short now.....
Going down to $3K is at best a 50/50 proposition.....
If VIX goes back down BTC will pump very high from here........ (Read about correlation between VIX and bitcoin if you're not sure what I'm talking about)
Opening short against BTC now is basically saying DOW would reach 20000 -- possible but not necessary.
Going down to $3K is at best a 50/50 proposition.....
If VIX goes back down BTC will pump very high from here........ (Read about correlation between VIX and bitcoin if you're not sure what I'm talking about)
Opening short against BTC now is basically saying DOW would reach 20000 -- possible but not necessary.
My net short position is turning out badly so far. The problem is that alt-coins are going down on a long time frame. Short to medium term - anything can happen. The alt-coin market is very far away from rationality.
Just found bitcoinity. Some amazing data charts/tables - like this one on arbitrage.
https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/arbitrage/USD
https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/arbitrage/USD
Sold 3 BTC at 7360. Got out of most of my alt-coin shorts, but now holding a small net short position in crypto for the first time in a long time (if BTC moves the same rate as altcoins).
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