https://www.coindesk.com/over-half-of-icos-fail-within-4-months-suggests-us-study/
I wonder if it is cumulative? Eg. 1/4 with last 8 months, 1/8 last 12 months...
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 20. (Read 83024 times)
It did a similar thing in April and then fell away again in May. The difference is that in May it held just above the Feb low and this time it tested it and briefly made a new low. I'd say it is too early to know if that is significant but there hasn't been much volume, so probably not.
Has there been an increase in these pumps where it goes straight up and then holds the new price level? If so, when did this start happening?
While BTC is hanging out at its 2018 all time low, half or more of the alt-coins are below their all-time-low (ETH being a notable exception).
Does anyone know how to do statistical analysis of text for positive / negative (or other) emotion? It'd be amazing to compare Bitcoin Reddit (or maybe BitcoinMarkets) over various time periods and a great tool for identifying the bottom of the bear market.
Doesn't look like the sort of thing that happens at the bottom of a bear market:
https://www.coindesk.com/andreessen-horowitz-launched-300-million-crypto-fund/
https://www.coindesk.com/andreessen-horowitz-launched-300-million-crypto-fund/
Forecast of $3 billion of crypto scams in 2018.
https://www.coindesk.com/crypto-scams-cost-consumers-billions-dollars-year-ftc-says/
Wouldn't be surprised if this is on the low side and ignoring a lot of the ICOs that are in the grey area (if someone gets $100 million for an ICO / pets.com, fails, cashes out early with $20 million -- does it count?). Also this ignores hacks. Pump and dump groups might also be scamming people (inner circle vs the suckers who get late notice and end up bag holding).
Does anyone know the underlying research on this number? I'd be fascinated to get more details.
https://www.coindesk.com/crypto-scams-cost-consumers-billions-dollars-year-ftc-says/
Wouldn't be surprised if this is on the low side and ignoring a lot of the ICOs that are in the grey area (if someone gets $100 million for an ICO / pets.com, fails, cashes out early with $20 million -- does it count?). Also this ignores hacks. Pump and dump groups might also be scamming people (inner circle vs the suckers who get late notice and end up bag holding).
Does anyone know the underlying research on this number? I'd be fascinated to get more details.
Not sure why people think selling over the counter doesn't affect market price. Supply and Demand! Does selling over the counter generate its own demand equal to the selling?
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180622_announcement_en.pdf
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180622_announcement_en.pdf
I think the effect is the same, just slower, since the trades aren't public.
I think Syke is probably right there, it’s likely to be a more gradual decline
Not sure why people think selling over the counter doesn't affect market price. Supply and Demand! Does selling over the counter generate its own demand equal to the selling?
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180622_announcement_en.pdf
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180622_announcement_en.pdf
I think the effect is the same, just slower, since the trades aren't public.
Not sure why people think selling over the counter doesn't affect market price. Supply and Demand! Does selling over the counter generate its own demand equal to the selling?
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180622_announcement_en.pdf
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180622_announcement_en.pdf
We might be in for a long (1-2 year?) bear market. BTC crashed from almost 20k down to 10.5k, and has bounced to around 13k. Or maybe a faster bear market with more aggressive shorting as there are more margin trading options than in 2014.
Charlie Lee's tweet that he was selling all his LTC might actually have triggered other oldtimers (possibly developers) to sell Bitcoin. Of course we've been due for a bear market for a long time.
I'm thinking I want to buy in the 1-2k range. But very hard to predict the bottom. Might be a lot safer to start buying in at 3k.
I would have sold 2 btc at 19k, but was holding on for January for taxes. Should have sold!
BFX USD margin funding down from 1 billion to 650 million.
Charlie Lee's tweet that he was selling all his LTC might actually have triggered other oldtimers (possibly developers) to sell Bitcoin. Of course we've been due for a bear market for a long time.
I'm thinking I want to buy in the 1-2k range. But very hard to predict the bottom. Might be a lot safer to start buying in at 3k.
I would have sold 2 btc at 19k, but was holding on for January for taxes. Should have sold!
BFX USD margin funding down from 1 billion to 650 million.
I'm loving this prediction.
Also the following posts where I actually placed buy orders at 1k-2k. Premature, but a decent long term strategy. Unfortunately I waivered and didn't sell due to taxes.
Betfair has odds on Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum. For instance, there is aapproximately a 53% chance of BTC closing the year under 5k! And a 75% chance it will drop below 5k at some point.
https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/financial-bets
I've got bids placed from 2k to 5k, buying more at the lower range. Though I'm prepared to wait 6 months for them to get hit.
https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/financial-bets
I've got bids placed from 2k to 5k, buying more at the lower range. Though I'm prepared to wait 6 months for them to get hit.
SEC says ethereum is not a security!
https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/sec-announces-ether-not-security-162658147.html
https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/sec-announces-ether-not-security-162658147.html
This NYT article and 60 page research paper from a professor and graduate student on price manipulation and Tether during the 2017 bull run is huge.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/8qr0fd/new_york_times_university_of_texas_at_austin/
While Tether itself isn't attacked, it appears that it was used by one or more whales to contribute a lot of bullish pressure. The general theory is that they've stopped operating and we're now in a bear market. So we're waiting for the whales to resume their bullish activity, for other whales to do so, or for lots of smaller players (us) to identify a bottom and reverse the trend.
Of course we've now read very good reports on the MtGox "WillyBot" and its role in the 2013 boom.
This makes sense, but it is unclear whether the whales are any more responsible for manipulation than the many small actors - some of who hype crypto currencies and make insane predictions about a bullish future.
The more people believe there was manipulation, the less likely they are to buy until the price has bottomed and starts to recover. The bottom might be established by a group of people who are buying on the way down, or a group of people who think it has bottomed and they are buying it on the way up.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/8qr0fd/new_york_times_university_of_texas_at_austin/
While Tether itself isn't attacked, it appears that it was used by one or more whales to contribute a lot of bullish pressure. The general theory is that they've stopped operating and we're now in a bear market. So we're waiting for the whales to resume their bullish activity, for other whales to do so, or for lots of smaller players (us) to identify a bottom and reverse the trend.
Of course we've now read very good reports on the MtGox "WillyBot" and its role in the 2013 boom.
This makes sense, but it is unclear whether the whales are any more responsible for manipulation than the many small actors - some of who hype crypto currencies and make insane predictions about a bullish future.
The more people believe there was manipulation, the less likely they are to buy until the price has bottomed and starts to recover. The bottom might be established by a group of people who are buying on the way down, or a group of people who think it has bottomed and they are buying it on the way up.
Got any more bubble stories for the overall economy?
Uber lost $1.5 billion in the third quarter of 2017.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensherman/2017/12/14/why-cant-uber-make-money/#457ac37610ec
Tesla loses $675 million in fourth quarter of 2017.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/feb/07/tesla-quarterly-loss-elon-musk-spacex
Bike sharing startups in Seattle are letting you rent a bike for $1 and probably losing millions:
http://kuow.org/post/how-do-seattles-bike-share-companies-make-money
Seattle House prices are in a bubble. $800k for a median house!
http://q13fox.com/2018/03/07/despite-record-home-prices-in-puget-sound-economist-say-we-are-not-in-a-bubble/
Locally in Philadelphia we are having a milder housing boom. Assessments recently increased 10% city-wide, but it was for a two year period. Most households have relatively low income compared to the US median, so the housing boom is concentrated in several neighborhoods.
If you take the log of the Fed's median house price chart (available under "Edit Graph"), it looks fairly normal. Of course small housing bubbles are pretty normal. Probably most areas of the country are relatively tame. Past three years the growth is around 4.5%/year (previous three years were more like 8%).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS
German 10 year bonds have positive yield (0.5%). Looks like the end of negative interest rates. Switzerland is at approximately 0%.
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GDBR10:IND
Is there any good data/charts on how many tech companies are losing huge amounts of money, and yet their valuations are in the billions?
Uber lost $1.5 billion in the third quarter of 2017.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensherman/2017/12/14/why-cant-uber-make-money/#457ac37610ec
Tesla loses $675 million in fourth quarter of 2017.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/feb/07/tesla-quarterly-loss-elon-musk-spacex
Bike sharing startups in Seattle are letting you rent a bike for $1 and probably losing millions:
http://kuow.org/post/how-do-seattles-bike-share-companies-make-money
Seattle House prices are in a bubble. $800k for a median house!
http://q13fox.com/2018/03/07/despite-record-home-prices-in-puget-sound-economist-say-we-are-not-in-a-bubble/
Locally in Philadelphia we are having a milder housing boom. Assessments recently increased 10% city-wide, but it was for a two year period. Most households have relatively low income compared to the US median, so the housing boom is concentrated in several neighborhoods.
If you take the log of the Fed's median house price chart (available under "Edit Graph"), it looks fairly normal. Of course small housing bubbles are pretty normal. Probably most areas of the country are relatively tame. Past three years the growth is around 4.5%/year (previous three years were more like 8%).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS
German 10 year bonds have positive yield (0.5%). Looks like the end of negative interest rates. Switzerland is at approximately 0%.
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GDBR10:IND
Is there any good data/charts on how many tech companies are losing huge amounts of money, and yet their valuations are in the billions?
While I've been thinking SEC regulation of ICO -> altcoin collapse -> bitcoin collapse
It could be that bitcoin collapse -> altcoin collapse -> ICO scams running off with funds -> SEC regulation
For instance, Bitconnect ponzi collapsed a couple weeks after BTC price peaked. It's easier to maintain a ponzi in a parabolic bullish market. Similarly for an ICO whether they are an outright scam or just a solid business proposal that gets 100x the level of funding that it deserves - the latter will still collapse if the ICO founders decide that they should stop creating new ICOs (I'm very skeptical of these entrepreneurs with multiple ICOs or crypto related startups - just sticking to one and doing it right should be more likely to succeed).
6700!
It could be that bitcoin collapse -> altcoin collapse -> ICO scams running off with funds -> SEC regulation
For instance, Bitconnect ponzi collapsed a couple weeks after BTC price peaked. It's easier to maintain a ponzi in a parabolic bullish market. Similarly for an ICO whether they are an outright scam or just a solid business proposal that gets 100x the level of funding that it deserves - the latter will still collapse if the ICO founders decide that they should stop creating new ICOs (I'm very skeptical of these entrepreneurs with multiple ICOs or crypto related startups - just sticking to one and doing it right should be more likely to succeed).
6700!
Is there a website that graphs the market cap for the ICO tokens?
There are some very silly ICOs:
https://icodrops.com
There are some very silly ICOs:
https://icodrops.com
How do they judge my experience?
It was a long time ago when I worked on Wall St. but you used to have to pass an exam.
Interesting. Gold might be more comparable.
I just learned this:
"In 2016, the U.S. Congress modified the definition of an accredited investor to include registered brokers and investment advisors. Also, if a person can demonstrate sufficient education or job experience showing his professional knowledge of unregistered securities, he is also considered an accredited investor."
Thanks Obama
So this means that as a self-proclaimed ponzi expert (and denouncer of ICOs and various unregistered security "tokens"), I'm now an accredited investor?
How do they judge my experience? I think I might be in a grey area. I think I've stayed out of unregistered securities, unless ETH is one.
Otherwise getting $1 million in assets is more difficult. I'm not sure the SEC is intentionally trying to encourage people to sell their house - it's a hilarious side effect.
I just learned this:
"In 2016, the U.S. Congress modified the definition of an accredited investor to include registered brokers and investment advisors. Also, if a person can demonstrate sufficient education or job experience showing his professional knowledge of unregistered securities, he is also considered an accredited investor."
Thanks Obama
So this means that as a self-proclaimed ponzi expert (and denouncer of ICOs and various unregistered security "tokens"), I'm now an accredited investor?
How do they judge my experience? I think I might be in a grey area. I think I've stayed out of unregistered securities, unless ETH is one.
Otherwise getting $1 million in assets is more difficult. I'm not sure the SEC is intentionally trying to encourage people to sell their house - it's a hilarious side effect.
Probably because a single actor (Hunt Brothers) got margin called. Whereas with bitcoin we have many more actors.
It was the action of their broker increasing the margin requirements that caused the reversal. We haven't seen anything like that in Bitcoin (yet).
I think the BTC graph looks very different.
I totally agree with that. What I do find striking is the similarity between Bitcoin and gold, albeit on differing timescales.
It looks like Bitcoin in slow motion. The large bull runs in gold were driven by geopolitical events inducing a flight to perceived safety. Then when the price starts taking off the FOMO brings in a speculative frenzy that eventually fades away bringing a quick reversal. With Bitcoin the initial driver is different, increased exposure in the mainstream media, but what follows is very similar.
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