Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 21. (Read 83111 times)

It was the action of their broker increasing the margin requirements that caused the reversal. We haven't seen anything like that in Bitcoin (yet).


I totally agree with that. What I do find striking is the similarity between Bitcoin and gold, albeit on differing timescales.



It looks like Bitcoin in slow motion. The large bull runs in gold were driven by geopolitical events inducing a flight to perceived safety. Then when the price starts taking off the FOMO brings in a speculative frenzy that eventually fades away bringing a quick reversal. With Bitcoin the initial driver is different, increased exposure in the mainstream media, but what follows is very similar.

Is there anything we can learn from the cornering of the silver market?  I think the BTC graph looks very different.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

Notably silver crashed a lot faster (compared to its rise time).  Probably because a single actor (Hunt Brothers) got margin called.  Whereas with bitcoin we have many more actors.

That all came from the news reporting about this statement from SEC Chairman Jay Clayton:

https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/statement-clayton-2017-12-11

The lack of BCH pump has me seriously questioning Roger Ver's integrity

Bcash Features
-smaller blocks than Bitcoin - average of 100kb - they use an advanced consensus non-software based filter that decreases transactions before they hit the block chain (aka the "bcash is stupid filter"). This makes it easier to decentralize as anyone can easily download the block chain!

-greater volatility than Bitcoin.  This is good for speculators and discourages transactions.  Once again making it better for decentralization.

-Roger Ver.  Not as hot as the Winklevoss Twins, but still quite the character.

-Snarky user base.  Future buttcoiners?

-Not a security. In these days of ICOs that are potentially all securities (source - did the SEC chair or someone big at SEC said this) and potentially Ethereum is one as well - it gives you the chance to gamble without risking confrontation with the SEC.

https://www.coindesk.com/research/state-blockchain-q1-2018/?slide=7

Unfortunately they don't know how to make proper bubble charts (see slide 7 - where they used the radius as proportional to the market cap - so twice the market cap -> 4 times the area).  On Page 7 this makes bitcoin look good. On page 15 (fees), it makes bitcoin look bad.

"What's happened to bitcoin?"  Ignores SEC pending regulation of ICOs and the corresponding impact on alt-coins and bitcoin. Also - these graphs are always made after the fact. So they add negative and positive events to fit the market trend.  Historically the big mistake with this in my opinon is the overstatement of the role of Cyprus's partial confiscation of bank accounts.

Does anyone understand the pentagon diagrams?

Ha. They think the CBOE had a role in increasing shorting and decreasing the price.  While ignoring the metrics from real exchanges where 90%+ of the shorts are?  Incompetent.

They pick on the Venezuelan Petro ICO as a scam. Rather than daring to target a mainstream ICO and alienate their audience.

Survey. No number for the percent of people holding 500k+ of crypto.  3% involved in 2011 (like me).  37% people think they'll become a crypto millionaire in 2018!  

In general, there are some indicators of a bubble. But they didn't ask the hard hitting questions or show the hard hitting graphs (like the 20x rise in BTC price from 2016 and 100x to 1000x rise in various altcoins) that would show a more accurate picture of the bubble. As such, we're solidly in bubble denial territory and hopefully everyone who shelled out $1500+ to attend Consensus will become a crypto millionaire without paying any taxes

...

Meanwhile - I'm still waiting for the BCH pump.  One day to the fork...

12 hours now.  Countdown:
https://cash.coin.dance/

Just realized they timed the BCH block increase for Consensus 2018 (May 14 - May 16).  Wow.  The one thing about Bitcoin Cash is they are very good at marketing.

https://bitcoin-millionaire.com/my-btc-wallet/
This investor is interesting for their transparency.  Some questionable investments though.

I suspect that BCH trading is still heavily manipulated, because so many BCH are controlled
by a few people (I guess they used the recent price slump to corner the market even more).

As if a coin like BCH would need a blocksize increase...

These are the last few Bitcoin Cash blocks:

BCH is upgrading to 32 MB on May 15 and pumping - 0.17 BTC and rising.

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/8el8n7/bitcoin_cash_is_upgrading_on_may_15_to_32mb_max/

BFX USD swaps tamer around 0.1%/day.

US unemployment at 3.9% - lowest since 2000.

Zoom out and look at the max view.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

Several bubbles are probably helping to stimulate demand - including the property market, the stock market (notably the tech sector and companies like Amazon), crypto, etc (I think the art market might be in a bubble as well?).  And from a pure capitalist perspective, we're paying people in these bubbling industries far more than they are producing (and hiring increasingly less productive workers as the bubbles cause labor shortages).  Though it is fascinating that wages are barely moving.

It looks like we're headed towards a recession soon.  It is also possible that we could sustain 3.5%-4% unemployment for a year or two, but normally these cycles end in a bust.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/8ftf80/simple_cash_carry_futures_arbitrage_calculator/
How big is the risk of Okex doing a claw back?


Also BFX USD swap rates spiking as high at 0.5%/day with FRR around 0.12%.

BCH pump is due to the update (larger blocks and some other improvements) and also AntPool is burning 12% of the BCH they mine.  Which is hilarious.

As BTC pushes 9500, I'm thinking about how 1) I could be very wrong about this 3k bottom and 2) how thinking (1) also creates fake breakouts.

It does seem like we're far away from an ICO crackdown or an alt-coin break down.

On the plus side, BFX lending rates are finally going up (hitting 0.06%-0.09%/day).  They also sometimes have had better Euro, Yen, and GB Pound rates (back when USD rates were at 0.01%/day or less)  

Yes, I kind of wondered about that.  But I don't care too much about my PA method as the taxes don't change - unless it impacts my federal method.

And the first response was that I had to use the stock split method. So I see this second response as reinforcing that.  I expliclitly asked if another method was acceptable and they stuck with their position.

By "it" do you mean the hard fork air drop qty or the hard fork coins that you've sold?

I sometimes forget a major use case for Bitcoin - entertainment - aka drama.

TheICOJournal blackmailing Philakone?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVAbP-owejI

https://theicojournal.com/

BCH is making quite the run.  Possibly because they are moving from 8 MB blocks to 32 MB ones (or someone decided to organize a pump surrounding this).

Tone Vays is acting more bearish than usual.  Recently claimed that all the traders (eg. probably a very small group of people who've been around since 2013 or earlier) he respected were bearish.

I asked if I could count the hard fork as "other income" and got this response from a PA tax person:

"You must report it on schedule D as sale, exchange for disposition of property."

So I might be really screwed for taxes (if I exceed a certain income by $1 I pay $3500 extra).  One crazy solution is to actually intentionally lose money by trading.  For instance, I could lose a lot of money to fees by repeatedly buying and selling until I've acquired enough loss.  Is there any legal way to setup yourself for a loss (of around $3000) this year, that would lead to a gain next year?  I know rental property has depreciation - but I don't really want to buy any property now.

Could I buy two sets of options, one that would go up $3000 and another that goes down $3000 - and sell the options that go down $3000 this year and then cash the next set in next year?  I'm not sure whether this is even legal and if it is, how I'd structure it so that there'd be a relatively fixed return (I could lose 3k-5k, so long as I make it back next year -- but I don't want to lose more than that).

...

Bitcoin dominance 38.3%.  BTC 8500.  Looks like your typical bitcoin up / altcoins up even more scenario.  I still think 1k-5k is the bottom.  Might take a while.

The Bitcoin Cash fork represents perhaps billions in capital gains (perhaps $10 billion total from a $300ish basis - and then whatever fraction of that has been sold).  That said, I am surprised that the PA state actually answered my question about it during tax season too.

Meanwhile - the ICO bubble continues. In four months, we've already exceeded the total ICO for 2017.
https://www.coindesk.com/6-3-billion-2018-ico-funding-already-outpaced-2017/

Is there any example where something like this actually occurred?
If you look at the big hard forks like ETH Classic or Bitcoin Cash they have never
managed to actually become the main coin. I´m obviously not aware of all
the altcoin projects, so maybe there is a coin where a "flippening" actually
occurred.

I don´t think that governments around the world will address the issue of the
taxation of hard forks anytime soon. The trend of the Bitcoin hard forks that you mentioned
implies that people are increasingly aware of the fact that these attempts are likely
to fail anyway, which obviously decreases the incentives for people to engage in
new hard forks. I´d argue that governments are slow to act in general and will only
pass new tax laws when hard forks become a relevant issue.

I asked the PA state about hard forks as they said use the stock-split method.

Apparently there are at least three methods
-other income (I used this one)
-stock splits
-zero accounting basis for the hard fork (though what happens if the coin flips and the other one becomes the main coin?)

Is there any free way to get federal IRS guidance on this issue?

If I have to use "stock splits" it severely impacts my tax planning for 2018 (as it shifts income from 2017 to 2018).

...

Interesting general trend.  Hard forks: Bitcoin Gold, Super Bitcoin, and Bitcoin Diamond are all decreasing versus Bitcoin.  Whereas Bitcoin Cash is holding its ground (so far).

BFX USD apr continues to suck: 2%.    The BTC rate occasionally spikes to 0.19%/day.

Another alternative for 2FA is WinAuth https://winauth.github.io/winauth/
I find it more convenient as I only trade from my PC and you can also export your tokens to an encrypted file and print them out and make a backup. I've lost a lot more phones than I have PCs over the years.