Then the price crashed to $888 and recovered to $1000. So lots of volatility!
Poloniex BTC swap rates at 0.18%/day -- good opportunity and probably worth the risk.
BFX BTC swap rates at 0.08%/day, which is much better than average but not as good as Poloniex. Unfortunately most of mine are tied up for another 2 weeks at 0.0175%/day.
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 37. (Read 83024 times)
Meanwhile price recovered to $1100 which is very strong.
If I'm reading the charts right, the transaction fees are about 10% of the block reward. So I'm unsure why miners are being stupid and opposing SegWit to maximize their small share of transaction fees. As by doing so, they are decreasing the price of Bitcoin by at least 10% in the short-term and possibly by 50% in the long term.
If they were acting as rational profit maximizers, they would be better served by focusing on the BTC price - at least until we have another two or three halvings of the block reward. I'd be surprised if they were thinking about business 6+ years in the future as that is a very long time frame for Bitcoin. Though maybe the Chinese are more likely to use a longer time frame than Americans (for instance their savings and investments rates are much higher than the US)?
If it isn't about profit maximization then it might be about ego / power. If the Lightning Network (or others) take transactions off the blockchain, then the miners might lower power.
If they were acting as rational profit maximizers, they would be better served by focusing on the BTC price - at least until we have another two or three halvings of the block reward. I'd be surprised if they were thinking about business 6+ years in the future as that is a very long time frame for Bitcoin. Though maybe the Chinese are more likely to use a longer time frame than Americans (for instance their savings and investments rates are much higher than the US)?
If it isn't about profit maximization then it might be about ego / power. If the Lightning Network (or others) take transactions off the blockchain, then the miners might lower power.
Support for SegWit, Bitcoin Unlimited and various other stats:
https://coin.dance/blocks
Bitcoin Unlimited down to $240 on BFX.
https://coin.dance/blocks
Bitcoin Unlimited down to $240 on BFX.
This is getting messy. I liked the reddit post where they argued that the market will decide which chain is more important in the event of a fork, as miners will maximize profits by mining the most profitable chain and that will depend on market demand and supply.
The problem is that miners can signal whether they like large blocks, bitcoin classic, segwit, etc - but consumers cannot. Really we need a way for the consumers to set the signal, so the miners can follow it.
This Bitfinex initiative is creative and will probably cause a lot of people to lose/gain huge amounts of money. It doesn't solve the signaling problem because the chains trade based on your expectation of what will happen, not what you want to happen (and the lack of a consumer signal method obscures what a purer market mechanism would decide).
Anyways, BCU (bitcoin unlimited) is trading at a massive $300 which means people are serious about the likelihood of not just the hard fork happening but of bitcoin unlimited winning it.
The problem is that miners can signal whether they like large blocks, bitcoin classic, segwit, etc - but consumers cannot. Really we need a way for the consumers to set the signal, so the miners can follow it.
This Bitfinex initiative is creative and will probably cause a lot of people to lose/gain huge amounts of money. It doesn't solve the signaling problem because the chains trade based on your expectation of what will happen, not what you want to happen (and the lack of a consumer signal method obscures what a purer market mechanism would decide).
Anyways, BCU (bitcoin unlimited) is trading at a massive $300 which means people are serious about the likelihood of not just the hard fork happening but of bitcoin unlimited winning it.
Story continues...
Chain Split Tokens
Chain Split Tokens
Quote
Today, Bitfinex proudly introduces trading on Chain Split Tokens (CST). The first such product of its kind, CSTs will allow Bitfinex customers to speculate on future fork events of the Bitcoin blockchain, specifically, the potential fork between Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Unlimited.[...]
Users will be able to create CSTs by “splitting” a bitcoin through the Token Manager (located in the Order Type drop down menu of the sidebar order ticket). Once split, the BTC will be removed from your account for each BCC and BCU added. Through the same Token Manager, you will be able to reverse this process at anytime, trading in equal numbers of BCC and BCU to extract BTC.
If no fork occurs by December 31, 2017, then BCU will expire worthless and BTC will be given in exchange for each BCC holder. If, however, there is a fork, specifically Bitcoin Unlimited, then, as soon as we list Bitcoin Unlimited, we will exchange BCU tokens for Bitcoin Unlimited tokens as well as retiring BCC tokens in favor of Bitcoin Core tokens.[...]
Users will be able to create CSTs by “splitting” a bitcoin through the Token Manager (located in the Order Type drop down menu of the sidebar order ticket). Once split, the BTC will be removed from your account for each BCC and BCU added. Through the same Token Manager, you will be able to reverse this process at anytime, trading in equal numbers of BCC and BCU to extract BTC.
If no fork occurs by December 31, 2017, then BCU will expire worthless and BTC will be given in exchange for each BCC holder. If, however, there is a fork, specifically Bitcoin Unlimited, then, as soon as we list Bitcoin Unlimited, we will exchange BCU tokens for Bitcoin Unlimited tokens as well as retiring BCC tokens in favor of Bitcoin Core tokens.[...]
I think it's worth mentioning that many exchanges, BFX included, signed an Industry Statement Regarding Hardfork Event.
The most important is that they will designate Bitcoin Unlimited as a different coin (BTU). They also request that protection against replay attacks is in place if a fork happens.
This effectively devalues all the attempts by BTU to replace BTC. Instead, it will be treated as an altcoin by the signatory exchanges/businesses.
That's what I understood from this statement.
The most important is that they will designate Bitcoin Unlimited as a different coin (BTU). They also request that protection against replay attacks is in place if a fork happens.
This effectively devalues all the attempts by BTU to replace BTC. Instead, it will be treated as an altcoin by the signatory exchanges/businesses.
That's what I understood from this statement.
So it looks like mining support for Bitcoin Unlimited is growing. Also we have at least three main groups 1) Segwit (soft fork, double transactions), 2) Bitcoin Unlimited (hard fork, exponential increase in transactions) and 3) Bitcoin classic (no fork, run out of space for transactions) that each have roughly 1/3 support.
BFX down to 940 and then recovered to 980. BTC swap rates at Bitfinex up to 0.2%/day (unfortunately I'm locked in at a much lower rate).
I guess this is bigger than the last developer drama due to an increasing number of miners that are signaling their interested in either Segwit or Bitcoin Unlimited.
BFX down to 940 and then recovered to 980. BTC swap rates at Bitfinex up to 0.2%/day (unfortunately I'm locked in at a much lower rate).
I guess this is bigger than the last developer drama due to an increasing number of miners that are signaling their interested in either Segwit or Bitcoin Unlimited.
Bicoin Classic vs Bitcoin Unlimited FUD is back and price is down to $1080 and falling. It is a serious issue, but also one that is eventually going to get figured out - most likely without a hard fork (or a hard fork that is more than 10% of the network).
Or maybe this is a real matter. As the price is falling a lot and Bitbet seems to think it is possible that Bitcoin Unlimited could even surpass Classic.
https://bitbet.us/bet/1353/bitcoin-unlimited-takeover-in-2017/
Or maybe this is a real matter. As the price is falling a lot and Bitbet seems to think it is possible that Bitcoin Unlimited could even surpass Classic.
https://bitbet.us/bet/1353/bitcoin-unlimited-takeover-in-2017/
Bitfinex USD swaps down to $23 million. This is from a recent, but not ath, high of $33 million during the ETF runup. Lots of room for growth.
BTC swaps are pretty high at 24k (down a bit from recent high of 30k). I wonder if miners are using Bitfinex to decrease volatility in their earnings? Anyways, over the past year there is a big increase in BTC swaps. It used to be than USD swaps were typically 3-5 times larger.
BTC swaps are pretty high at 24k (down a bit from recent high of 30k). I wonder if miners are using Bitfinex to decrease volatility in their earnings? Anyways, over the past year there is a big increase in BTC swaps. It used to be than USD swaps were typically 3-5 times larger.
I'm reading the book Plutocrats - about the rise of the super rich. I recommend it.
It strongly reinforced my opinion that Bitcoin could be used by the super rich as a store of value (or some other purpose) and thus become extremely valuable. (Of course it could also totally fail - the DAO is a great recent example of this). So for the rest of us, who aren't in the top 0.1% or even top 1%, it makes some sense to invest in the bubble/moon dream. Of course, only risk what you can afford to lose. The book also noted that people who live in communities/countries with rapid economic growth are less happy than poor farmers. So while Bitcoin could make you rich, it is also likely to make you unhappy. For instance, you might have 10 bitcoins and be envious of those with thousands.
At BFX USD swap rates are low (0.03%/day), but BTC swap rates are higher than norm (aka 0.05%/day). Very paradoxical unless someone is borrowing the BTC to short alt-coins?
It strongly reinforced my opinion that Bitcoin could be used by the super rich as a store of value (or some other purpose) and thus become extremely valuable. (Of course it could also totally fail - the DAO is a great recent example of this). So for the rest of us, who aren't in the top 0.1% or even top 1%, it makes some sense to invest in the bubble/moon dream. Of course, only risk what you can afford to lose. The book also noted that people who live in communities/countries with rapid economic growth are less happy than poor farmers. So while Bitcoin could make you rich, it is also likely to make you unhappy. For instance, you might have 10 bitcoins and be envious of those with thousands.
At BFX USD swap rates are low (0.03%/day), but BTC swap rates are higher than norm (aka 0.05%/day). Very paradoxical unless someone is borrowing the BTC to short alt-coins?
^^ And there we have it ^^
That was what I "bet on" back @ sub $100. Moving large amounts of money is expensive, always figured the true end game would be the big money using BTC to side step the ridiculous fees associated with moving said cash. Over time, I'm thinking more and more that it's simply not "easy" enough for the average Joe to purchase and use for daily spending (yet...we ARE getting closer). BUT, with that being said, I'm thinking that an infallible (for now as quantum theory is on its way to becoming a reality), transparent ledger is the real value. Imagine elections with no "oops, we miscounted". Maybe the mega-corps no longer being able to get away with that first embezzlement.
Just my humble .02
Umm China is #1 on hype in Bitcoin historically. We've regularly seen a 10% premium for BTC in China.
SEC turned down the ETF due to the inability to regulate bitcoin markets. USD markets dropped 20-25%, but China only 10%. Then USD markets recovered very well and we're at 1150 which is very good. All sorts of shenanigans today!
may be some dump and pump occur next week.
China always strong to recover and never hype
SEC turned down the ETF due to the inability to regulate bitcoin markets. USD markets dropped 20-25%, but China only 10%. Then USD markets recovered very well and we're at 1150 which is very good. All sorts of shenanigans today!
5% BFX token redemption and price is now at 88 cents. I really missed the call on this one! I guess they're getting better than expected fees, as even their prospectus (for issuing shares) had them taking 5-10 years to pay it back (at current income level).
US financial capital (and a lot of hedge fund people) are concentrated in the NYC area and northeast in general. Probably only a tiny influence on the market, but it also only takes a couple hedge fund managers (or very rich people) to move the market.
The US is currently leading the market, China is lagging.
The potential SEC approval of the ETF, also American, is a major cause in the uptrend (and far bigger than weather of course!). The US stock market also continues to hit new highs.
As we approach the ETF deadline, it will be interesting to see if we spike up. If we go up 10%+ in a single day, that is pretty unhealthy and likely to lead to a major drop.
While I haven't studied the role of weather and financial markets (other than the obvious connection to farmers), I do know that weather plays a role in social change - for instance rioting and large uprisings are both affected by it.
The US is currently leading the market, China is lagging.
The potential SEC approval of the ETF, also American, is a major cause in the uptrend (and far bigger than weather of course!). The US stock market also continues to hit new highs.
As we approach the ETF deadline, it will be interesting to see if we spike up. If we go up 10%+ in a single day, that is pretty unhealthy and likely to lead to a major drop.
While I haven't studied the role of weather and financial markets (other than the obvious connection to farmers), I do know that weather plays a role in social change - for instance rioting and large uprisings are both affected by it.
7 billion people on the planet and they aren't all in America. You may be surprised that some people outside of America own bitcoin and the weather is different there.
Maybe I missed the point and you were messing about.
Maybe I missed the point and you were messing about.
Prediction contract for whether the COIN ETF will be approved is trading at approximately 50% on Bitmex. Not sure if the volume is enough for this to be significant and it is also very hard to predict things like this.
https://www.bitmex.com/app/contract/COIN_BH17
Bitcoin semi-stable price at ATH in USD is very bullish. Though short-term we might be setting ourselves up for the typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" meme - in which case even if the ETF is approved we might go down.
We had some very warm weather in the Northeast US when we broke the USD high a week ago. Up to 70 degrees. We're having another round of 65 (today) and 72 (tomorrow). Has anyone ever correlated "nice" weather will bullish market sentiment? It seems especially likely to work in markets like Bitcoin (or to a lesser extent gold) where fundamentals are less important.
How important is the Cloudflare security leak? It seems like if it were more important, we'd be getting more notices to change passwords. I saw Purse put out one, but even Bitfinex has not.
https://it.slashdot.org/story/17/02/24/0319243/cloudflare-leaks-sensitive-user-data-across-the-web#comments
https://www.bitmex.com/app/contract/COIN_BH17
Bitcoin semi-stable price at ATH in USD is very bullish. Though short-term we might be setting ourselves up for the typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" meme - in which case even if the ETF is approved we might go down.
We had some very warm weather in the Northeast US when we broke the USD high a week ago. Up to 70 degrees. We're having another round of 65 (today) and 72 (tomorrow). Has anyone ever correlated "nice" weather will bullish market sentiment? It seems especially likely to work in markets like Bitcoin (or to a lesser extent gold) where fundamentals are less important.
How important is the Cloudflare security leak? It seems like if it were more important, we'd be getting more notices to change passwords. I saw Purse put out one, but even Bitfinex has not.
https://it.slashdot.org/story/17/02/24/0319243/cloudflare-leaks-sensitive-user-data-across-the-web#comments
So we're at the USD high (1170 on BFX, $5 short), but a good distance from the Yuan high.
Also, someone hacked Bitcoin!
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5vqd6k/sha1_collision_bounty_has_been_claimed/
Just kidding. They appeared to have broken SHA1 in one case. Bitcoin is based on SHA256 which is more secure by orders of magnitude. Not sure how many orders of magnitude.
Also, someone hacked Bitcoin!
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5vqd6k/sha1_collision_bounty_has_been_claimed/
Just kidding. They appeared to have broken SHA1 in one case. Bitcoin is based on SHA256 which is more secure by orders of magnitude. Not sure how many orders of magnitude.
Estimates of a Bitcoin ETF trading in 2017 - about 50%. Though very low volume (0.4 BTC) and I'm not sure of if the time-weighing of bets might affect the odds:
https://bitbet.us/bet/1356/bitcoin-etf-has-trades-in-2017/
Also - 1130 at Bitfinex. Pretty crazy! What will be interesting is if we break the USD record but are still 600-1000 Yuan from the Chinese record as the Chinese exchanges are lagging.
https://bitbet.us/bet/1356/bitcoin-etf-has-trades-in-2017/
Also - 1130 at Bitfinex. Pretty crazy! What will be interesting is if we break the USD record but are still 600-1000 Yuan from the Chinese record as the Chinese exchanges are lagging.
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