nrd525 Market Tracker - page 42. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Hunyadi

legendary

Activity: 1281

Merit: 1000

☑ ♟ ☐ ♚

Quote from: nrd525 on June 17, 2016, 03:27:36 PM

The DAO hack sparked a strong sell-off in BTC as well.

http://www.coindesk.com/dao-attacked-code-issue-leads-60-million-ether-theft/

The sell-off was before the "hack" news.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

The DAO hack sparked a strong sell-off in BTC as well.

http://www.coindesk.com/dao-attacked-code-issue-leads-60-million-ether-theft/

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

BFX - 42.9 million swaps, 2.1 million available.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

Are there any other good tools like this for analyzing Bitcoin trends? The recent decline in bull/bear flair ratio on reddit is interesting. Fell from 25:1 to 15:1 in the past week, though it is still historically high.

https://coinsight.org

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

I withdrew my BTC from Poloniex due to the low rates.

RoadTrain

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1009

Meanwhile, available BTC swaps on Poloniex are down to 1600 BTC from >5k, while rates are stable at < 0.02% daily.

Looks like BTC are either withdrawn or dumped (maybe on margin) into ETH.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

BFX swaps at $41.1 million and there are $2.3 million available. They might be adding $3-$5 million/day!

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

BFX swaps at $40.1 million (200k available). BTC at $770. I'm selling on the way up (and have sold almost half of my bitcoins - 20 out of 43). For some reason, I'm almost always buying on the way down and selling on the way up.

At this rate, I expect a good pull-back - if not before halving, then at least after it.

OKcoin quarterlies are at $840 which is a big premium. The Chinese premium is very small ($10). GBTC premium is very large ($550-$600) - and also in percent terms (75%).

In the last big run-up we had a daily candle that went from 360 to 504 (BFX), or up 40% - right before the collapse. I'd be surprised if we get another 40% daily increase, but it is possible.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

BFX now has 36.4 million in US swaps and 2.9 million available. So a 1 million increase from yesterday. At this rate of supply increase, BFX swap rates will plummet which is sad for people like me who are providing it.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

Bitfinex has a all-time-high 36.3 million in US swaps. AND they have another 2 million available (looks like they're getting a quick inflow in response to demand). In other news, nrd525 inspired panic selling has brought the price down to 690.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

I sold two BTC - one at 696 and one at 698. I placed a bunch of sell orders in the 700-770 range.

Fakhoury

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1027

Permabull Bitcoin Investor

Thanks for the frequent update my friend, nrd

Aren't you afraid from a quick raise like the ones we are witnessing nowadays, afraid of a crash or sharp one to be precise ?

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

It is interesting that LTC is not going up as fast as BTC. Typically LTC gains/losses exceed those of BTC, often by a factor of 2 or more.

BFX is running low on USD swap. Instead of 5 million available, they are down to 750k.
https://bfxdata.com/swapstats/usd

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

Bubble mode is on.

Trying to trade during a bubble is even more crazy than regular. You expect it to keep going up until it makes a massive (and quick) fall (aka flash crash). But in a large bubble, the price will actually recover from most (eg maybe 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4) of the falls - so it makes sense to hold. Until it doesn't. I tend to think if the price increases by 25%/day we're in a big bubble that is about to crash, but with the market being more mature it might be 15% (which we have already hit) to 20%.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

It's hard to say for sure due to several trades I made for arbitraging and to transfer USD to Bitfinex for lending (by buying BTC at Coinbase, transferring it to BFX and selling it - cheaper that international wires) - but my cost basis is around $300. I'm considering selling part of my BTC (for the first time since I sold my then complete holdings of 2 - 2.5 BTC at around $700 in the 2013 bubble).

On the other hand, there is still $2-$3 million of unused swap on BFX. And if there is demand for it (and interest rates at 20% or more), I think BFX swap could grow at 10-20%/week.

Oh and 666 (at least on Bitstamp). Bitfinex is currently teasing me with 665.

The Chinese premium is relatively low ($25), especially considering the $50+ premium we had a couple weeks ago. The GBTC premium ($260) is insane (though as a percentage this has happened before). The Okcoin quarterly premium is high ($60), but has been higher. So in general things are looking bullish, without looking super bubbly. We also haven't seen even mini flash crashes. Flash crashes were a huge deal in 2013, and have also occurred since then.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

The Google search trend for "bitcoin" is low compared to 2013, and also not that much higher than 2014 or 2015. It is suffering from a lack of news coverage. It might be hard for Bitcoin to attract the level of news coverage that it achieved in 2013 as it is no longer a new shiny thing. On the other hand, I bet the number of business stories relating to Bitcoin (or the blockchain) are increasing (in the business press) and that people with higher incomes and wealth are hearing more positive things about it than during the 2013 cycle. And for slightly cautious investors it will take a steady flow of positive business stories for them to start investing.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

The June 2014 run-up went to just a bit over 666 and then fell back.

The 444 level is probably more significant. We've spent a lot of time bouncing around in the low to mid 400s. Interestingly we spent a bunch of time around 444 in May 2014 (so right before 666 became marginally significant). Mostly I just think this is very funny! In general the hundreds are more significant - like I recall watching the market sit at exactly 300 for a long time (as there was a large 300 ask wall which eventually broke).

The price has spent less time in the 600s, and if it goes above 700 - things are likely to get increasingly crazy. Though we might stall first at 800 - as we were at that level for around a month in Jan-Feb 2014. This assumes that people follow general trading principles, instead of market fundamentals.

Fakhoury

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1027

Permabull Bitcoin Investor

Quote from: nrd525 on June 11, 2016, 09:42:53 PM

Bitcoin price is obviously heading towards 666.

Also - if anyone trades on Predictit and wants to compare notes, pm me. I did very well on the last set of primaries.

Why $666 is important, nrd ?

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

Bitcoin price is obviously heading towards 666 (this is intended to be funny, but also bitcoin seems to have a thing for triple digits in USD - like 444).

Also - if anyone trades on Predictit and wants to compare notes, pm me. I did very well on the last set of primaries.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1867

Merit: 1023

The last BTC halving day was in Nov 28, 2012. 2 months before the first 2013 bubble.

https://bitcoinhelp.net/know/more/price-chart-history

Also Litecoin went up 400% before it halved (and then fell down half the way) on August 25, 2015.

Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 42. (Read 82718 times)