Some of the advice on this thread is pretty classic, like my second post from two years ago:
"Do not invest in any business that offers shares for bitcoins."
This is one piece of advice that I've followed too! I'd generalize it to include all crypto-currencies (notably ETH). If you want to invest money buy a stock. If you want to lend money, buy a bond (or use Bitfinex - but with caution).
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 42. (Read 83088 times)
Thanks for the correction. You are right. The ETH sell-off was 3 -4 hours later. That is very important because if ETH caused a BTC price decline, I think it is less serious for BTC. It would have shown that BTC is vulnerable to moves in other markets, but it would also be a bit too random.
On the other hand, if BTC decides to fall 11% on its own, that is the biggest fall we've seen so far in the price increase from the low 400s. So it is a small sign that we're nearing the end of the short to medium term bull market. Though it isn't too much bigger than the previous two declines of roughly 9% (714 to 656) and 10% (570 to 511) on BFX. And with all the new leverage available on BFX, I wouldn't be surprised if we'd see a fall that is more of a flash crash at some point. They have market circuit breakers that may shut down the market if this happens. Otherwise it could do something insane like crash to 100.
Very healthy bounce back (780 down to 702 - bounced up to 760).
On the other hand, if BTC decides to fall 11% on its own, that is the biggest fall we've seen so far in the price increase from the low 400s. So it is a small sign that we're nearing the end of the short to medium term bull market. Though it isn't too much bigger than the previous two declines of roughly 9% (714 to 656) and 10% (570 to 511) on BFX. And with all the new leverage available on BFX, I wouldn't be surprised if we'd see a fall that is more of a flash crash at some point. They have market circuit breakers that may shut down the market if this happens. Otherwise it could do something insane like crash to 100.
Very healthy bounce back (780 down to 702 - bounced up to 760).
The DAO hack sparked a strong sell-off in BTC as well.
http://www.coindesk.com/dao-attacked-code-issue-leads-60-million-ether-theft/
http://www.coindesk.com/dao-attacked-code-issue-leads-60-million-ether-theft/
The sell-off was before the "hack" news.
The DAO hack sparked a strong sell-off in BTC as well.
http://www.coindesk.com/dao-attacked-code-issue-leads-60-million-ether-theft/
http://www.coindesk.com/dao-attacked-code-issue-leads-60-million-ether-theft/
BFX - 42.9 million swaps, 2.1 million available.
Are there any other good tools like this for analyzing Bitcoin trends? The recent decline in bull/bear flair ratio on reddit is interesting. Fell from 25:1 to 15:1 in the past week, though it is still historically high.
https://coinsight.org
https://coinsight.org
I withdrew my BTC from Poloniex due to the low rates.
Meanwhile, available BTC swaps on Poloniex are down to 1600 BTC from >5k, while rates are stable at < 0.02% daily.
Looks like BTC are either withdrawn or dumped (maybe on margin) into ETH.
Looks like BTC are either withdrawn or dumped (maybe on margin) into ETH.
BFX swaps at $41.1 million and there are $2.3 million available. They might be adding $3-$5 million/day!
BFX swaps at $40.1 million (200k available). BTC at $770. I'm selling on the way up (and have sold almost half of my bitcoins - 20 out of 43). For some reason, I'm almost always buying on the way down and selling on the way up.
At this rate, I expect a good pull-back - if not before halving, then at least after it.
OKcoin quarterlies are at $840 which is a big premium. The Chinese premium is very small ($10). GBTC premium is very large ($550-$600) - and also in percent terms (75%).
In the last big run-up we had a daily candle that went from 360 to 504 (BFX), or up 40% - right before the collapse. I'd be surprised if we get another 40% daily increase, but it is possible.
At this rate, I expect a good pull-back - if not before halving, then at least after it.
OKcoin quarterlies are at $840 which is a big premium. The Chinese premium is very small ($10). GBTC premium is very large ($550-$600) - and also in percent terms (75%).
In the last big run-up we had a daily candle that went from 360 to 504 (BFX), or up 40% - right before the collapse. I'd be surprised if we get another 40% daily increase, but it is possible.
BFX now has 36.4 million in US swaps and 2.9 million available. So a 1 million increase from yesterday. At this rate of supply increase, BFX swap rates will plummet which is sad for people like me who are providing it.
Bitfinex has a all-time-high 36.3 million in US swaps. AND they have another 2 million available (looks like they're getting a quick inflow in response to demand). In other news, nrd525 inspired panic selling has brought the price down to 690.
I sold two BTC - one at 696 and one at 698. I placed a bunch of sell orders in the 700-770 range.
Thanks for the frequent update my friend, nrd 
Aren't you afraid from a quick raise like the ones we are witnessing nowadays, afraid of a crash or sharp one to be precise ?
Aren't you afraid from a quick raise like the ones we are witnessing nowadays, afraid of a crash or sharp one to be precise ?
It is interesting that LTC is not going up as fast as BTC. Typically LTC gains/losses exceed those of BTC, often by a factor of 2 or more.
BFX is running low on USD swap. Instead of 5 million available, they are down to 750k.
https://bfxdata.com/swapstats/usd
BFX is running low on USD swap. Instead of 5 million available, they are down to 750k.
https://bfxdata.com/swapstats/usd
Bubble mode is on.
Trying to trade during a bubble is even more crazy than regular. You expect it to keep going up until it makes a massive (and quick) fall (aka flash crash). But in a large bubble, the price will actually recover from most (eg maybe 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4) of the falls - so it makes sense to hold. Until it doesn't. I tend to think if the price increases by 25%/day we're in a big bubble that is about to crash, but with the market being more mature it might be 15% (which we have already hit) to 20%.
Trying to trade during a bubble is even more crazy than regular. You expect it to keep going up until it makes a massive (and quick) fall (aka flash crash). But in a large bubble, the price will actually recover from most (eg maybe 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4) of the falls - so it makes sense to hold. Until it doesn't. I tend to think if the price increases by 25%/day we're in a big bubble that is about to crash, but with the market being more mature it might be 15% (which we have already hit) to 20%.
It's hard to say for sure due to several trades I made for arbitraging and to transfer USD to Bitfinex for lending (by buying BTC at Coinbase, transferring it to BFX and selling it - cheaper that international wires) - but my cost basis is around $300. I'm considering selling part of my BTC (for the first time since I sold my then complete holdings of 2 - 2.5 BTC at around $700 in the 2013 bubble).
On the other hand, there is still $2-$3 million of unused swap on BFX. And if there is demand for it (and interest rates at 20% or more), I think BFX swap could grow at 10-20%/week.
Oh and 666 (at least on Bitstamp). Bitfinex is currently teasing me with 665.
The Chinese premium is relatively low ($25), especially considering the $50+ premium we had a couple weeks ago. The GBTC premium ($260) is insane (though as a percentage this has happened before). The Okcoin quarterly premium is high ($60), but has been higher. So in general things are looking bullish, without looking super bubbly. We also haven't seen even mini flash crashes. Flash crashes were a huge deal in 2013, and have also occurred since then.
On the other hand, there is still $2-$3 million of unused swap on BFX. And if there is demand for it (and interest rates at 20% or more), I think BFX swap could grow at 10-20%/week.
Oh and 666 (at least on Bitstamp). Bitfinex is currently teasing me with 665.
The Chinese premium is relatively low ($25), especially considering the $50+ premium we had a couple weeks ago. The GBTC premium ($260) is insane (though as a percentage this has happened before). The Okcoin quarterly premium is high ($60), but has been higher. So in general things are looking bullish, without looking super bubbly. We also haven't seen even mini flash crashes. Flash crashes were a huge deal in 2013, and have also occurred since then.
The Google search trend for "bitcoin" is low compared to 2013, and also not that much higher than 2014 or 2015. It is suffering from a lack of news coverage. It might be hard for Bitcoin to attract the level of news coverage that it achieved in 2013 as it is no longer a new shiny thing. On the other hand, I bet the number of business stories relating to Bitcoin (or the blockchain) are increasing (in the business press) and that people with higher incomes and wealth are hearing more positive things about it than during the 2013 cycle. And for slightly cautious investors it will take a steady flow of positive business stories for them to start investing.
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin
The June 2014 run-up went to just a bit over 666 and then fell back.
The 444 level is probably more significant. We've spent a lot of time bouncing around in the low to mid 400s. Interestingly we spent a bunch of time around 444 in May 2014 (so right before 666 became marginally significant). Mostly I just think this is very funny! In general the hundreds are more significant - like I recall watching the market sit at exactly 300 for a long time (as there was a large 300 ask wall which eventually broke).
The price has spent less time in the 600s, and if it goes above 700 - things are likely to get increasingly crazy. Though we might stall first at 800 - as we were at that level for around a month in Jan-Feb 2014. This assumes that people follow general trading principles, instead of market fundamentals.
The 444 level is probably more significant. We've spent a lot of time bouncing around in the low to mid 400s. Interestingly we spent a bunch of time around 444 in May 2014 (so right before 666 became marginally significant). Mostly I just think this is very funny! In general the hundreds are more significant - like I recall watching the market sit at exactly 300 for a long time (as there was a large 300 ask wall which eventually broke).
The price has spent less time in the 600s, and if it goes above 700 - things are likely to get increasingly crazy. Though we might stall first at 800 - as we were at that level for around a month in Jan-Feb 2014. This assumes that people follow general trading principles, instead of market fundamentals.
Bitcoin price is obviously heading towards 666.
Also - if anyone trades on Predictit and wants to compare notes, pm me. I did very well on the last set of primaries.
Also - if anyone trades on Predictit and wants to compare notes, pm me. I did very well on the last set of primaries.
Why $666 is important, nrd ?
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