That spike down to 465 is likely the bottom of this BFX hack related market decline, unless there is another wave of bad news (like other exchanges being affected, or the loss being bigger than expected).
BFX is likely going to the liquidators and everyone will take a (guess) 20% loss. Unfortunately this could take years. The only way I see this not happening is if the loss is less than 10% of their assets (which would be true if their assets are as big as MtGox which had 800k BTC, but I'm guessing that Bitfinex has much less than that - as you don't see the massive trading walls that you used to see on MtGox. And bitcoin trading and use is spread out to a lot more places.)
I wish there was some way to bail out the site that would avoid liquidators. There is also a small chance that someone will buy the company.
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 41. (Read 83088 times)
The Bitfinex hack looks bad for Bitfinex users (possibly 125k BTC lost according to a transfer of 125k BTC out of multi-sig wallets -- see Reddit for analysis). But I really am not sure that it should be causing such a large decline in the overall price.
535
For BFX, I'm not sure how soon they can reopen the website as they have to assign losses. If it was a small hack, they'd bail people out. They might even be able to bail out 10k BTC (eg $6 million). But the hack is too big. At first I'm guessing they will assign the losses to the people whose accounts were hacked (so BTC accounts that were linked to BitGo). But they might need to consult with lawyers as it could be that BFX itself is responsible, and thus they should liquidate their assets and distribute them equally.
If I wasn't at risk of losing a large percent of my investment funds, I'd be considering buying Bitcoins at this price - and maybe placing orders in the upper 400s. However, I unfortunately have a large US balance on BFX (30,000) and medium sized BTC one (20 btc).
535
For BFX, I'm not sure how soon they can reopen the website as they have to assign losses. If it was a small hack, they'd bail people out. They might even be able to bail out 10k BTC (eg $6 million). But the hack is too big. At first I'm guessing they will assign the losses to the people whose accounts were hacked (so BTC accounts that were linked to BitGo). But they might need to consult with lawyers as it could be that BFX itself is responsible, and thus they should liquidate their assets and distribute them equally.
If I wasn't at risk of losing a large percent of my investment funds, I'd be considering buying Bitcoins at this price - and maybe placing orders in the upper 400s. However, I unfortunately have a large US balance on BFX (30,000) and medium sized BTC one (20 btc).
Bitfinex got hacked (and BTC is down to $560).
So far, I looked at my BitGo wallet which BFX made me setup. But because I haven't done any margin trading (or exchanging) with BFX since I set it up - it has 0 BTC in it (and hasn't lost any). My bitcoins are in the BFX Deposit Wallet. So I don't know if they are affected.
The general panic surrounding this is a good time to buy if you are looking for a long term position.
Also, BTC lending rates are up to 0.12%/day at Poloniex. Though you might want to wait for the BFX hack to be resolved, in case it is a type of hack that could apply to other exchanges.
So far, I looked at my BitGo wallet which BFX made me setup. But because I haven't done any margin trading (or exchanging) with BFX since I set it up - it has 0 BTC in it (and hasn't lost any). My bitcoins are in the BFX Deposit Wallet. So I don't know if they are affected.
The general panic surrounding this is a good time to buy if you are looking for a long term position.
Also, BTC lending rates are up to 0.12%/day at Poloniex. Though you might want to wait for the BFX hack to be resolved, in case it is a type of hack that could apply to other exchanges.
I wonder if the Ether hard fork and the persistence of ETH classic is behind the recent BTC decline? I haven't seen a good article on it, but it sounds like you have problems with an unintended hard fork and there might be opportunities for hackers and/or double spending?
Apparently bitbet.us is under receivership. It sure doesn't say it on the website!
http://fr.anco.is/2016/bitbet-receivership-first-progress-report
See my advice on not investing in any business that issues shares in bitcoins. I'll extend this to recommend staying away from any business affiliated with Mircea Porpescu.
http://fr.anco.is/2016/bitbet-receivership-first-progress-report
See my advice on not investing in any business that issues shares in bitcoins. I'll extend this to recommend staying away from any business affiliated with Mircea Porpescu.
Halving is in 6 days and 12 hours.
http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com
Are we going to see another serious pre or post halving pump? I'm guessing not and that we might see moves like the latest increase to 705. A nice increase, but it didn't catch momentum. I think that the 430 to 790 move was the pump and it is over.
In other news, I'm making a killing on PredictIt. Also - did I ever mention that I partially wrote an arbitrage trading program for the Iowa Electronic Market back in 1996? I didn't complete it due to the limitations of the scripting language (I was using a modem scripting language to screen scrape data that I got from Telnet) and the lack of financial reward (I only had $20 invested). It was on my 486 pc with windows 3.1 and a 2400 baud modem - so it would have crashed a lot too.
I recently found this interesting article on algorithmic trading in the Iowa Electronic Markets (the author wasn't aware of any trading programs existing in the market until 2000). It is of general interest if you ever want to trade/gamble on a prediction market - and Bitcoin has several of them!
http://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=382022091086006005109073096118110027029011095077058037071002071109067127104092068024048096036099043030006118121015106077079089040066043048077004069081067080107087092008007076009018064029102001122004084088072119005098095085099094000031005068116111119120&EXT=pdf
http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com
Are we going to see another serious pre or post halving pump? I'm guessing not and that we might see moves like the latest increase to 705. A nice increase, but it didn't catch momentum. I think that the 430 to 790 move was the pump and it is over.
In other news, I'm making a killing on PredictIt. Also - did I ever mention that I partially wrote an arbitrage trading program for the Iowa Electronic Market back in 1996? I didn't complete it due to the limitations of the scripting language (I was using a modem scripting language to screen scrape data that I got from Telnet) and the lack of financial reward (I only had $20 invested). It was on my 486 pc with windows 3.1 and a 2400 baud modem - so it would have crashed a lot too.
I recently found this interesting article on algorithmic trading in the Iowa Electronic Markets (the author wasn't aware of any trading programs existing in the market until 2000). It is of general interest if you ever want to trade/gamble on a prediction market - and Bitcoin has several of them!
http://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=382022091086006005109073096118110027029011095077058037071002071109067127104092068024048096036099043030006118121015106077079089040066043048077004069081067080107087092008007076009018064029102001122004084088072119005098095085099094000031005068116111119120&EXT=pdf
LTC (in BTC) is at the lowest level in the past 2 years. It is doing better in USD, due to BTC's recovery.
Considering how much the pound fell ($1.50 to $1.33 at the bottom), and that Bitcoin was already partially retracing the decline from 790 from 540 - the price increase due to Brexit was weaker than I expected.
In other news, it looks like progress on Segregated Witness - so that is good.
In other news, it looks like progress on Segregated Witness - so that is good.
It has been merged buddy
Considering how much the pound fell ($1.50 to $1.33 at the bottom), and that Bitcoin was already partially retracing the decline from 790 from 540 - the price increase due to Brexit was weaker than I expected.
In other news, it looks like progress on Segregated Witness - so that is good.
In other news, it looks like progress on Segregated Witness - so that is good.
A surprise Brexit win gives Bitcoin a bit of a boost. The pound fell from 1.50 to as low as 1.33 USD.
Unless Brexit wins, it is looking like the Bitcoin market is back to bear mode. Might even slowly fall to the support in the 400s. Of course somebody could try another pump, but they will want to pump off a positive rumor - like segregated witness, MtGox liquidation putting money in people's pockets, a major new bitcoin business development, etc.
Brexit or no Brexit, Bitcoin is going to the moon in 6 months to a year at most. We could continue down from here for a bit but we could also go right back up. That's why I don't try to time the market. I'm in it for the long haul and I just cost-average on the way up. No worries here at all
I'm scared. Are you implying that $400 is pretty possible? A drop from $800 to $400 is me losing half my investment. What are your odds that its going to get down to a support level?
If you're invested for at least 6 months to a year, I wouldn't worry about it at all. Within the next couple months, anything goes. Although if it goes into the $400s I doubt it would last long. In my opinion we already entered bull phase. There will be corrections on the way up
I'm scared. Are you implying that $400 is pretty possible? A drop from $800 to $400 is me losing half my investment. What are your odds that its going to get down to a support level?
Back when I sold over the past week or so, I ended up selling a total of 21 BTC in the upper 600s to 700s for an average of 727. That is around half my BTC. This is the biggest BTC trade I've made since buying at the Jan 2015 bottom.
Meanwhile the bear market is in full swing - $590.
Meanwhile the bear market is in full swing - $590.
Unless Brexit wins, it is looking like the Bitcoin market is back to bear mode. Might even slowly fall to the support in the 400s. Of course somebody could try another pump, but they will want to pump off a positive rumor - like segregated witness, MtGox liquidation putting money in people's pockets, a major new bitcoin business development, etc.
Brexit (UK leave EU) vote on Thursday. That could be interesting. "Remain" has a small lead. PredictIt gives Remain a 75% chance based on the idea that most last-minute voters will swing to Remain.
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/784/Will-the-UK-vote-to-leave-the-EU-by-year-end-2016#data
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/784/Will-the-UK-vote-to-leave-the-EU-by-year-end-2016#data
We're now at a 20% price correction. Much larger than the previous ones which were around 10%.
As the recent price increase was based on speculation about the halving rather than fundamentals, it is not surprising that it has been showing signs of weakness when we get a bit of bad news. So it has been reacting negatively, and completely out of proportion, to troubles at Bitfinex and TheDAO. Down to 660.
BFX USD swaps down to 33.5 million.
BFX USD swaps down to 33.5 million.
Reviewing all my gains and losses, it looks like I'm roughly up $18,000 on an investment of $25000 (or 72%) since 2013. So around $28,500 in gains (capital and swaps), but $10,500 of capital (and Bitcoinica) losses. Of course this includes a ton of unrealized capital gains.
On the other hand, the S&P is up 40% since Jan 1, 2013 - and another 7% if you include dividends.
On the other hand, the S&P is up 40% since Jan 1, 2013 - and another 7% if you include dividends.
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