Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 40. (Read 83024 times)
Why are RRT tokens trading for 14 cents? Where are people discussing this valuation? (I've seen a couple comments on Reddit, but not much).
I'm baffled by the new Bitfinex tokens (RRT) having a current market value of 12 cents. I'd value them closer to 0-1 cents as the probability of Bitfinex recovering the stolen bitcoins seems to be close to zero (unless it was an inside job), and if they do a partial recovery they first have to pay of the BFX token holders (like me!). Interestingly the BFX tokens fell 1-2 cents after the RRT tokens were introduced (probably competing for attention from the same speculators).
Also - without major fundamental shifts, the BTC price is on the rise again. I guess continued business development, love of the blockchain, and maybe Segregated Witness are helping. Personally, I'd like to buy in (as I only have 14 BTC, after selling half and then losing/getting converted to BFX tokens 36%of the remaining ones in the BFX hack) - but maybe I'll wait for the next block size / developer fight to drive the price down. Also, I continue to do well on PredictIt so I've been focused on that.
The US economy is going to have a recession eventually and the global economy is a bit fragile. I could see Trump triggering a recession (with spending cuts, trade wars, or even actual wars), but his odds of winning have recently fallen to 15-20%. US household median income growth was very strong in 2015 (see the American Community Survey), and at some point the economy will "overheat".
It turns out that many people, or at least major BFX token owners, disagree with me regarding the BFX corporate valuation and a lot of people have converted their tokens into equity (30-40%?).
Also - without major fundamental shifts, the BTC price is on the rise again. I guess continued business development, love of the blockchain, and maybe Segregated Witness are helping. Personally, I'd like to buy in (as I only have 14 BTC, after selling half and then losing/getting converted to BFX tokens 36%of the remaining ones in the BFX hack) - but maybe I'll wait for the next block size / developer fight to drive the price down. Also, I continue to do well on PredictIt so I've been focused on that.
The US economy is going to have a recession eventually and the global economy is a bit fragile. I could see Trump triggering a recession (with spending cuts, trade wars, or even actual wars), but his odds of winning have recently fallen to 15-20%. US household median income growth was very strong in 2015 (see the American Community Survey), and at some point the economy will "overheat".
It turns out that many people, or at least major BFX token owners, disagree with me regarding the BFX corporate valuation and a lot of people have converted their tokens into equity (30-40%?).
Poloniex BTC swap rates have been decent recently. Around 0.06%/day. I'm happy they are staying high even after the latest alt-coin bubble is over.
BFX tokens spike to 63.4. Currently at 62. Apparently they are doing an announcement by/on Sept 15.
I'm thinking the BFX token price run-up to the conversion of debt into shares (or pseudo-shares?) could be a good time to sell. Though you never know how crazy people can get when they hear about stock being issued in a Bitcoin related company - and we still haven't seen the financials! I'd be very surprised if it goes over 80 cents.
In other news, I'm probably joining a PredictIt trading group. If you are trading on PredictIt or want to start (and notably think you can outsmart the other 90% of traders - and are capable of great insights) - message me. Or if you ever just want to chat about PredictIt - you can find me on the Reddit, by PM, or by email.
In other news, I'm probably joining a PredictIt trading group. If you are trading on PredictIt or want to start (and notably think you can outsmart the other 90% of traders - and are capable of great insights) - message me. Or if you ever just want to chat about PredictIt - you can find me on the Reddit, by PM, or by email.
I'm buying a KeepKey (Bitcoin hardware wallet). Should have done this a long time ago. Good for holding and probably pretty easy to use for all of your transactions. And I don't do that many transactions.
I disagree. I think that that the loss exceeds the value of the company. We'll have a better idea of if this is true, when they release financial statements. But so far it looks like it would take them 10-15 years to pay back the tokens at current income rates (assuming a medium level of expenses) and by that time there is a good chance that BFX is hacked again and/or has lost market share.
As it would be hard to liquidate BFX, creditors may expect to get more money from the current BFX token method. However there is also greater uncertainty as the company could completely fail or Bitcoins could increase sufficiently in value that the company's value could exceed that of the loss.
In related news they issued their first buy back of 1.812% of the tokens. I predicted that they would use buybacks of a proportional nature like this (if not here, then it was on reddit). The price spiked to 0.57 which may be getting a bit high. Though I'm still holding. I want to see what the financial statement looks like.
As it would be hard to liquidate BFX, creditors may expect to get more money from the current BFX token method. However there is also greater uncertainty as the company could completely fail or Bitcoins could increase sufficiently in value that the company's value could exceed that of the loss.
In related news they issued their first buy back of 1.812% of the tokens. I predicted that they would use buybacks of a proportional nature like this (if not here, then it was on reddit). The price spiked to 0.57 which may be getting a bit high. Though I'm still holding. I want to see what the financial statement looks like.
Yet another way of valuating Bitfinex is to look at Kraken which recently issued 0.5% equity for $100k -- for a valuation of $20 million. Then if Bitfinex has 1.8 times the volume (last 30 days, only looking at BTC), it is worth $36 million. Now if it owes $72 million, the tokens would be worth 50 cents.
Does this calculation make any sense? BFX Omni-tokens doesn't represent whole Bitfinex value.
The BFX token value is gradually moving up. It is again near its peak of 45 cents.
Yet another way of valuating Bitfinex is to look at Kraken which recently issued 0.5% equity for $100k -- for a valuation of $20 million. Then if Bitfinex has 1.8 times the volume (last 30 days, only looking at BTC), it is worth $36 million. Now if it owes $72 million, the tokens would be worth 50 cents.
Of course it remains to be seen how much volume Bitfinex will lose once this plays out. And a 0.5% equity share might not be a good indicator of market price. Though revenue stream analysis tends to lead towards similar valuations (Eg. Bitfinex could pay it all off, but it might take 10-20 years). Perhaps the biggest unknown is whether the all-exchanges Bitcoin trading volume will grow (in USD) and a lot of that will depend upon business development and proportional BTC price increase.
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Meanwhile, I think Bitfinex should issue a BFX token mining contract. Akin to their former TH1 mining contract, it doesn't even have to do any mining to be profitable - it would be profitable by you being able to lend it to people who would make money shorting it. Bitfinex could make money off people manipulating the price of the BFX mining contract. The only people to lose would be suckers who didn't follow what happened with the TH1 contract. It would also allow for people to analyze the risks associated with hacking - through a market based system. Libertarians should love that. Hackers, aka BFX token miners, could offer contracts and people could invest in them or short them.
Yet another way of valuating Bitfinex is to look at Kraken which recently issued 0.5% equity for $100k -- for a valuation of $20 million. Then if Bitfinex has 1.8 times the volume (last 30 days, only looking at BTC), it is worth $36 million. Now if it owes $72 million, the tokens would be worth 50 cents.
Of course it remains to be seen how much volume Bitfinex will lose once this plays out. And a 0.5% equity share might not be a good indicator of market price. Though revenue stream analysis tends to lead towards similar valuations (Eg. Bitfinex could pay it all off, but it might take 10-20 years). Perhaps the biggest unknown is whether the all-exchanges Bitcoin trading volume will grow (in USD) and a lot of that will depend upon business development and proportional BTC price increase.
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Meanwhile, I think Bitfinex should issue a BFX token mining contract. Akin to their former TH1 mining contract, it doesn't even have to do any mining to be profitable - it would be profitable by you being able to lend it to people who would make money shorting it. Bitfinex could make money off people manipulating the price of the BFX mining contract. The only people to lose would be suckers who didn't follow what happened with the TH1 contract. It would also allow for people to analyze the risks associated with hacking - through a market based system. Libertarians should love that. Hackers, aka BFX token miners, could offer contracts and people could invest in them or short them.
BFX token will have no margin/leverage trading enabled.
The BFX tokens are very strange. The price is relatively stable at around 32-42 cents even though there is almost no information as to BFX financials. Given the fact that they haven't fallen anywhere close to zero, and that Bitfinex is hinting that they want to eventually redeem them - I'm relatively positive. But I'd also probably sell them all for 60 cents if I could.
The USD swap rate is also very low (0.03%). It might recover as demand picks up (and currently US traders aren't allowed to use margin). Or it could be that lenders are expecting an increase, waiting it out, and by doing so are maintaining a high supply and causing low rates.
There are also two sides to the swap risk. Both the lender and the borrower have perceived increased levels of risk - so even if you can get swap at 0.03%, your actual risk might be closer 0.1% - and this will depress demand and swap rates. Though in practice, I haven't seen demand decrease for swap until it hits 0.2%/day. It's more likely that we're seeing the impact of the bear market and loss of US margin traders.
I think Bitfinex will succeed in gradually restoring confidence. Though if they don't soon come up with an explanatory email about what caused the hack, they will set themselves back a lot.
The USD swap rate is also very low (0.03%). It might recover as demand picks up (and currently US traders aren't allowed to use margin). Or it could be that lenders are expecting an increase, waiting it out, and by doing so are maintaining a high supply and causing low rates.
There are also two sides to the swap risk. Both the lender and the borrower have perceived increased levels of risk - so even if you can get swap at 0.03%, your actual risk might be closer 0.1% - and this will depress demand and swap rates. Though in practice, I haven't seen demand decrease for swap until it hits 0.2%/day. It's more likely that we're seeing the impact of the bear market and loss of US margin traders.
I think Bitfinex will succeed in gradually restoring confidence. Though if they don't soon come up with an explanatory email about what caused the hack, they will set themselves back a lot.
This whole BFX thing is a joke. BFX tokens, as I understand, are worth $1 right now. BUT, they will allow trading of them, which to me is a terrible idea from a customer satisfaction PoV,and just brilliant from a business PoV. First large token holder to log on dumps it to $0. Now BFX "Buys the dip" and negates a fair chunk of what they owe. In the mean time, everyone else's BFXbux are devalued to the point that most will never get anywhere close to what was lost, and BFX only pays a fraction of what was owed to "make complete" all the accounts. The whole thing sounds like a scam to me. I like that they are making an attempt, I guess... But they are going about it the wrong way. The icing on the BFGOX cake is that as volume leaves the exchange like the walk of shame after a roofie colada induced date rape, it has a negative feedback loop on the likelihood of ever getting paid back.
lol, well if BFX tokens drop to 0 i'm for sure buying that shit!
This whole BFX thing is a joke. BFX tokens, as I understand, are worth $1 right now. BUT, they will allow trading of them, which to me is a terrible idea from a customer satisfaction PoV,and just brilliant from a business PoV. First large token holder to log on dumps it to $0. Now BFX "Buys the dip" and negates a fair chunk of what they owe. In the mean time, everyone else's BFXbux are devalued to the point that most will never get anywhere close to what was lost, and BFX only pays a fraction of what was owed to "make complete" all the accounts. The whole thing sounds like a scam to me. I like that they are making an attempt, I guess... But they are going about it the wrong way. The icing on the BFGOX cake is that as volume leaves the exchange like the walk of shame after a roofie colada induced date rape, it has a negative feedback loop on the likelihood of ever getting paid back.
The proposed BFX hair cut of 36% will wipe out 80% of my bitcoin long term profits, and possibly leave me in negative territory after taking into account taxes. Unless the proposed BFX tokens turn into a repayment plan that works. I think there is a chance that they will at least partially repay the loss (otherwise issuing worthless tokens is silly).
sorry for your loss.i think the BFX tokens will probably give you some added value, but it probably will not be worth enough to cover your loss fully.
I guess it depends on how that token is structured, if the token represents a dividend paying share for the company... i guess it would have a chance at repaying you in full and then some, IF bitfinex gets there act together and keep making profits....
Paradoxically, if BFX comes back online, their swap rates will probably be a lot higher - which will allow me to earn back a 36% loss faster (Yes, I am stupid enough to continue to use the exchange).
It will be interesting to see if people still lend out BTC for 1% APR. I've always thought that was crazy low. USD rates of 10%/year just proved to be a bad risk. Though if you've been lending USD since near the beginning you are probably still up 100-200%.
i think your right the rates will be much much higher, at least for the first few weeks/months after they re-open.
The proposed BFX hair cut of 36% will wipe out 80% of my bitcoin long term profits, and possibly leave me in negative territory after taking into account taxes. Unless the proposed BFX tokens turn into a repayment plan that works. I think there is a chance that they will at least partially repay the loss (otherwise issuing worthless tokens is silly). Paradoxically, if BFX comes back online, their swap rates will probably be a lot higher - which will allow me to earn back a 36% loss faster (Yes, I am stupid enough to continue to use the exchange).
It will be interesting to see if people still lend out BTC for 1% APR. I've always thought that was crazy low. USD rates of 10%/year just proved to be a bad risk. Though if you've been lending USD since near the beginning you are probably still up 100-200%.
It will be interesting to see if people still lend out BTC for 1% APR. I've always thought that was crazy low. USD rates of 10%/year just proved to be a bad risk. Though if you've been lending USD since near the beginning you are probably still up 100-200%.
I'm very curious. Is Bitfinex, while expecting major losses, allowed to do paper settlements of the open positions?
It is a very grey area. One potential major problem - what if they have employees who have long positions and who end up benefiting from this paper settlement and an advantageous BTC price?
It is a very grey area. One potential major problem - what if they have employees who have long positions and who end up benefiting from this paper settlement and an advantageous BTC price?
I wrote this on reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4wh8ah/bitfinex_subsidizing_longs_at_other_users_expense/
If Bitfinex goes ahead with settling positions at above market prices for BTC long positions, then they are subsidizing these positions.
If they settle BTC positions at 604, instead of the current market price (585), then they are subsidizing these positions. If they do this with their own personal funds then that is ok, but if they are using corporate assets how can they legally justify favoring one class of creditor over another?
They are taking money from other users to subsidize the speculators, and we are paying for it with an increased haircut.
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Please upvote the reddit post. Unless I'm wrong, in which case please let me know why I'm wrong.
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The proposed 36% haircut is bad. I guess I'm glad it isn't worse and that they mostly generalized the loss. Why "mostly"? Because they are bailing out the longs. How would they even close these positions? Normally they'd market sell the BTC on their own exchange. Instead, the BTC were probably stolen. So they cannot even sell them on another exchange. But in any case, when they closed the positions they had to get the money from somewhere.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4wh8ah/bitfinex_subsidizing_longs_at_other_users_expense/
If Bitfinex goes ahead with settling positions at above market prices for BTC long positions, then they are subsidizing these positions.
If they settle BTC positions at 604, instead of the current market price (585), then they are subsidizing these positions. If they do this with their own personal funds then that is ok, but if they are using corporate assets how can they legally justify favoring one class of creditor over another?
They are taking money from other users to subsidize the speculators, and we are paying for it with an increased haircut.
...
Please upvote the reddit post. Unless I'm wrong, in which case please let me know why I'm wrong.
...
The proposed 36% haircut is bad. I guess I'm glad it isn't worse and that they mostly generalized the loss. Why "mostly"? Because they are bailing out the longs. How would they even close these positions? Normally they'd market sell the BTC on their own exchange. Instead, the BTC were probably stolen. So they cannot even sell them on another exchange. But in any case, when they closed the positions they had to get the money from somewhere.
That's an interesting argument about how cascading losses from the people who lost their BTC could affect swap lenders.
On the other hand, if the BTC price stays at 550+ the people who are long BTC shouldn't be that much underwater. At this rate the price might even recover to 600 and hold it.
Fortunately most of my assets are fixed (I own half a house) and not subject to my crazy trading/investing ideas. But beyond that, if I lose access to my BFX funds it will mean that my largest accessible investment is now in PredictIt (a political prediction market - for "research" purposes). Somehow I'm up 330% since February (which would be even more if they didn't take a 10% cut of all your profits). So that is pretty hilarious in a gallows humor kind of way. One of the sillier things to happen on PredictIt was during the RNC convention when there were three price surges for Bush winning the nomination. I think at least one of them was after Trump had won the nomination. Someone was wasting a couple hundred dollars just to bid Bush up to a 10% chance of winning (while also ignoring the better priced option of taking Trump NO at 3%).
On the other hand, if the BTC price stays at 550+ the people who are long BTC shouldn't be that much underwater. At this rate the price might even recover to 600 and hold it.
Fortunately most of my assets are fixed (I own half a house) and not subject to my crazy trading/investing ideas. But beyond that, if I lose access to my BFX funds it will mean that my largest accessible investment is now in PredictIt (a political prediction market - for "research" purposes). Somehow I'm up 330% since February (which would be even more if they didn't take a 10% cut of all your profits). So that is pretty hilarious in a gallows humor kind of way. One of the sillier things to happen on PredictIt was during the RNC convention when there were three price surges for Bush winning the nomination. I think at least one of them was after Trump had won the nomination. Someone was wasting a couple hundred dollars just to bid Bush up to a 10% chance of winning (while also ignoring the better priced option of taking Trump NO at 3%).
When there was ETH-fork, ETH swap providers didn't get any ETC because they didn't have any ETH balance during the fork. Now if we follow the same logic and you did lend your whole balance (I had all my USD, BTC, ETH and ETC lent out, which I had there) it's up to borrowers solvency whether he/she can pay back or not. However, if their margin was BTC...
I don't know. I hope Bitfinex won't screw lenders once again...though I think they will. Anyways, it might take years to get anything back.
I don't know. I hope Bitfinex won't screw lenders once again...though I think they will. Anyways, it might take years to get anything back.
That spike down to 465 is likely the bottom of this BFX hack related market decline, unless there is another wave of bad news (like other exchanges being affected, or the loss being bigger than expected).
BFX is likely going to the liquidators and everyone will take a (guess) 20% loss. Unfortunately this could take years. The only way I see this not happening is if the loss is less than 10% of their assets (which would be true if their assets are as big as MtGox which had 800k BTC, but I'm guessing that Bitfinex has much less than that - as you don't see the massive trading walls that you used to see on MtGox. And bitcoin trading and use is spread out to a lot more places.)
I wish there was some way to bail out the site that would avoid liquidators. There is also a small chance that someone will buy the company.
BFX is likely going to the liquidators and everyone will take a (guess) 20% loss. Unfortunately this could take years. The only way I see this not happening is if the loss is less than 10% of their assets (which would be true if their assets are as big as MtGox which had 800k BTC, but I'm guessing that Bitfinex has much less than that - as you don't see the massive trading walls that you used to see on MtGox. And bitcoin trading and use is spread out to a lot more places.)
I wish there was some way to bail out the site that would avoid liquidators. There is also a small chance that someone will buy the company.
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