Bitfinex USD swap rates have increased from around 0.022%/day to 0.033%/day and are showing signs of going up even more. This could be a sign that more people think the bear trend is reversing.
If the long term bear trend reverses (or people learn that it has already reversed), it is likely that these swap rates will spike to 0.1-0.2%/day. However, the stronger the spike - the shorter it will last as new money will come in.
I've been listening to the "WhaleClub" teamspeak. There is all sorts of crazy trolling, including someone last night who said that he'd worked for MtGox for five months and that Mark Karpeles was going to dump 30k coins and the price was going below $200 within the next ten hours (he was ridiculed by everyone else). This hasn't happened. The teamspeak is also littered with conspiratorial talk about both bitcoin whales and banks controlling the economy. There might be a couple people there with insider connections - but it is difficult to say who is telling the truth.
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 57. (Read 83024 times)
We are still in a very strong long-term bear market. A lot of people are talking about how we might need to flash crash to 156-166 again (what we hit in January) and have it hold. This is known as a "double-bottom".
So this long term bear market could be driven by technical analysis, or it could be the product of bitcoin losing its value to speculators and not breaking through into payments (a lot of merchants accept bitcoin payments, but the payment volume is lower than expected).
I'm the type of person that likes to closely track their expenses and be very careful about what I spend. Most Americans don't do this. So for me the goal of reducing the 2% fee that credit card companies take is a great one. However most Americans aren't going to care, and businesses are going to be reluctant to put enough pressure on consumers to change.
If you think BTC might fall to 170, you could make a killing shorting LTC. Of course shorting LTC is very dangerous. I'm just more bullish on BTC than LTC. If you are a longterm BTC holder, you could reduce your risk by shorting LTC (currently Bitfinex is offering very low rates for doing this - 0.02%/day).
So this long term bear market could be driven by technical analysis, or it could be the product of bitcoin losing its value to speculators and not breaking through into payments (a lot of merchants accept bitcoin payments, but the payment volume is lower than expected).
I'm the type of person that likes to closely track their expenses and be very careful about what I spend. Most Americans don't do this. So for me the goal of reducing the 2% fee that credit card companies take is a great one. However most Americans aren't going to care, and businesses are going to be reluctant to put enough pressure on consumers to change.
If you think BTC might fall to 170, you could make a killing shorting LTC. Of course shorting LTC is very dangerous. I'm just more bullish on BTC than LTC. If you are a longterm BTC holder, you could reduce your risk by shorting LTC (currently Bitfinex is offering very low rates for doing this - 0.02%/day).
You can follow an interesting group of traders on TeamSpeak: http://vaughnlive.tv/whaleclub
Only has audio when the traders are up, and if the market is active. So often there is no audio for hours. They seem to all be doing very short-term trades, so I'm unsure as to whether it is informative. But it'll be entertaining to follow even for minor market moves.
Only has audio when the traders are up, and if the market is active. So often there is no audio for hours. They seem to all be doing very short-term trades, so I'm unsure as to whether it is informative. But it'll be entertaining to follow even for minor market moves.
The number of both USD swaps ($15 million - lowest since March 2014) and BTC swaps (12k, lowest since Dec 2014) at Bitfinex is decreasing to recent lows. Does this mean that people are unsure which way it will move? Or are traders moving their money to other platforms? The rates are very low for both (0.02%/day).
Interesting book on Bitcoin by Tim Swansom which points out a lot of the limitations:
https://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/235826409?access_key=key-aBLslM47TikhTtq3GmHB&allow_share=true&escape=false&view_mode=scroll
Interesting book on Bitcoin by Tim Swansom which points out a lot of the limitations:
https://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/235826409?access_key=key-aBLslM47TikhTtq3GmHB&allow_share=true&escape=false&view_mode=scroll
The Coinbase exchange launch is exciting, but in retrospect the impact on the price was totally overblown. 22% gain in 24 hours! Watching it I got overwhelmed with irrational exuberance - though not to the point of buying anymore BTC.
My overall break-even point on bitcoin investments is somewhere around 310. So it was great to go over that! My cost basis is closer to 350 but the difference is due to swap lending and some capital gains in 2013.
I especially liked how long it held above 300 and the high volume in the recent move.
I continue to think that $150-$166 was probably the bottom of the year-long bear cycle.
Syriza's win in Greece might be slightly bullish for Bitcoin as it could increase exchange rate chaos. I'm a radical so I'm pretty happy about it - though I'm worried that Syriza will sellout - like most left wing parties do after they win power. Though in the long-term if Greece leaves the EU monetary union - it might be bullish for the Euro and negative for Bitcoin. Greece has been providing more instability to the EU than the benefit from including its relatively small economy.
Last 24 hours, Bitcoin now up almost 8%. Litecoin down almost 8%. The last post's recommendation on shorting Litecoin was a good guess. I hope my countless faithful subscribers pulled in some large profits! I know I didn't.
My overall break-even point on bitcoin investments is somewhere around 310. So it was great to go over that! My cost basis is closer to 350 but the difference is due to swap lending and some capital gains in 2013.
I especially liked how long it held above 300 and the high volume in the recent move.
I continue to think that $150-$166 was probably the bottom of the year-long bear cycle.
Syriza's win in Greece might be slightly bullish for Bitcoin as it could increase exchange rate chaos. I'm a radical so I'm pretty happy about it - though I'm worried that Syriza will sellout - like most left wing parties do after they win power. Though in the long-term if Greece leaves the EU monetary union - it might be bullish for the Euro and negative for Bitcoin. Greece has been providing more instability to the EU than the benefit from including its relatively small economy.
Last 24 hours, Bitcoin now up almost 8%. Litecoin down almost 8%. The last post's recommendation on shorting Litecoin was a good guess. I hope my countless faithful subscribers pulled in some large profits! I know I didn't.
Positive news: Quantitative easing in Europe, Coinbase $75 million funding round, Winklevoss twins plan a US exchange, and possible ETF soon.
On the other hand, the world economy is looking fairly fragile. The US economy is great, but Europe is very weak (near zero growth), Japan is in recession, Russia is probably going into a recession, and China's growth has slowed (though to 7%). There is also a risk of another asset bubble, possibly from housing - as central banks keep interest rates very low (see the nearly zero five year yield on the German and Japanese treasuries). For instance, in Vancouver Canada the median single family home price is over $1 million, and one the west side of Vancouver the average price is over $2 million.
If the housing market bubbles - the pop will hurt.
Litecoin is up 30% in the past 24 hours. Might be worth shorting (and would probably reduce your risk if you are long in BTC).
On the other hand, the world economy is looking fairly fragile. The US economy is great, but Europe is very weak (near zero growth), Japan is in recession, Russia is probably going into a recession, and China's growth has slowed (though to 7%). There is also a risk of another asset bubble, possibly from housing - as central banks keep interest rates very low (see the nearly zero five year yield on the German and Japanese treasuries). For instance, in Vancouver Canada the median single family home price is over $1 million, and one the west side of Vancouver the average price is over $2 million.
If the housing market bubbles - the pop will hurt.
Litecoin is up 30% in the past 24 hours. Might be worth shorting (and would probably reduce your risk if you are long in BTC).
I've been buying on the way down. This is not as fun as buying on the way up, but hopefully more profitable in the long run.
The crash to $152 (Bitstamp), $166 (Bitfinex), $145-$150 (China hit 900-930 Yuan) or $168 (Btc-e: acting weird as historically they've been the lowest priced USD exchange) is the type of desperate fast crash that happens at the absolute bottom of the bear market. Though it was easier to say this when the price has recovered to $200. Now that we're sitting at $186 (Bitfinex) or $180 (Bitstamp), and Bitfinex BTC swaps are still high - the recovery is still looking a bit shaky.
Anyways, I've been buying lots of bitcoins on BFX:
1 BTC at $226
1 BTC at $216
2 BTC at $206
1 BTC at $197
2 BTC at $192
2 BTC at $187
2 BTC at $182
2 BTC at $177
2 BTC at $172
1 BTC at $167
$167 was the lowest bid that I had on the order book and it got filled!
An advantage of having bid orders already issued is that I didn't have to madly place any bids at the bottom when the price was fluctuating by as much as 5% in a single minute.
Over the past several days, I've doubled my number of BTC to around 40. Time will tell whether this was a good move.
The crash to $152 (Bitstamp), $166 (Bitfinex), $145-$150 (China hit 900-930 Yuan) or $168 (Btc-e: acting weird as historically they've been the lowest priced USD exchange) is the type of desperate fast crash that happens at the absolute bottom of the bear market. Though it was easier to say this when the price has recovered to $200. Now that we're sitting at $186 (Bitfinex) or $180 (Bitstamp), and Bitfinex BTC swaps are still high - the recovery is still looking a bit shaky.
Anyways, I've been buying lots of bitcoins on BFX:
1 BTC at $226
1 BTC at $216
2 BTC at $206
1 BTC at $197
2 BTC at $192
2 BTC at $187
2 BTC at $182
2 BTC at $177
2 BTC at $172
1 BTC at $167
$167 was the lowest bid that I had on the order book and it got filled!
An advantage of having bid orders already issued is that I didn't have to madly place any bids at the bottom when the price was fluctuating by as much as 5% in a single minute.
Over the past several days, I've doubled my number of BTC to around 40. Time will tell whether this was a good move.
This may be the bottom or very near the bottom.
1. Market falls almost 20% in the last 24 hours without any real news. It recovered a bit and is now down 13% in the last 24 hours.
2. Price hasn't recovered in a V shape. The V shape - fast fall, but also fast recovery is more typical of bottoms. This is evidence that we're not at the bottom.
3. Volume is very high
4. The number of short positions (BTC swap) on Bitfinex fell from 24k to 18k, but have since recovered to 21k. On the other hand there are still more longs ($17 million) and the longs are also down by $2 million in the past day.
5. General sentiment is negative.
6. Alt coins are doing better than I'd expect at a BTC bottom. For instance, LTC has historically been more volatile than Bitcoin and is down by 31% versus Bitcoin in the past 30 days. However, I'd expect worse.
7. Business development continues. Bitpay firing seven people is a good example of how Bitcoin is having a lot of trouble breaking into payments (lots of merchants accept it, but the amounts are generally insignificant).
8. Bitstamp hack is negative. Looks like they'll reimburse people which is positive.
9. Pending government auction of Silk Road coins, especially in this bear market, could trigger another sell-off. Or could it be delayed for a long time as the legal proceedings go on?
10. 2011 Bear Market did a 93% retrace (fell from $32 to $2). By contrast we're "only" down 75-80%. While I'd expect volatility to decrease as the market matures, it could be that speculation has increased as there are more exchanges, options, and margin trading than ever before. The market may be more immature!
1. Market falls almost 20% in the last 24 hours without any real news. It recovered a bit and is now down 13% in the last 24 hours.
2. Price hasn't recovered in a V shape. The V shape - fast fall, but also fast recovery is more typical of bottoms. This is evidence that we're not at the bottom.
3. Volume is very high
4. The number of short positions (BTC swap) on Bitfinex fell from 24k to 18k, but have since recovered to 21k. On the other hand there are still more longs ($17 million) and the longs are also down by $2 million in the past day.
5. General sentiment is negative.
6. Alt coins are doing better than I'd expect at a BTC bottom. For instance, LTC has historically been more volatile than Bitcoin and is down by 31% versus Bitcoin in the past 30 days. However, I'd expect worse.
7. Business development continues. Bitpay firing seven people is a good example of how Bitcoin is having a lot of trouble breaking into payments (lots of merchants accept it, but the amounts are generally insignificant).
8. Bitstamp hack is negative. Looks like they'll reimburse people which is positive.
9. Pending government auction of Silk Road coins, especially in this bear market, could trigger another sell-off. Or could it be delayed for a long time as the legal proceedings go on?
10. 2011 Bear Market did a 93% retrace (fell from $32 to $2). By contrast we're "only" down 75-80%. While I'd expect volatility to decrease as the market matures, it could be that speculation has increased as there are more exchanges, options, and margin trading than ever before. The market may be more immature!
Bought 1 BTC at $267 on Bitfinex. I've got several bids in the 200s. I blame this on the fact that I just watched "The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin" documentary. The documentary is very positive.
It was fun, but a bit on the corporate side. A lot of talk about Bitcoin helping the "unbanked" poor people of the world, but instead everyone was focused on helping the upper-middle class in the US, Europe, and China to speculate and buy stuff they don't need.
More buying
1 BTC at $262
1 BTC at $257
1 BTC at $247
1 BTC at $236
It was fun, but a bit on the corporate side. A lot of talk about Bitcoin helping the "unbanked" poor people of the world, but instead everyone was focused on helping the upper-middle class in the US, Europe, and China to speculate and buy stuff they don't need.
More buying
1 BTC at $262
1 BTC at $257
1 BTC at $247
1 BTC at $236
For the past 2-3 days there has been a $5-$11 price difference between Bitfinex and the top three Chinese exchanges. Currently it is around $9-$10. This is over 3%!
This is a decent arbitrage opportunity (unfortunately I lack accounts on any Chinese exchange), and a puzzle. I don't recall ever seeing such a large premium for Bitfinex over the Chinese exchanges last for more than a day.
In the 2013 bull market, the Chinese exchanges had a premium over all of the other USD markets. Gox was second place (because withdrawing USD was hard), Bitfinex and Bitstamp third, and then BTC-E was fourth (typically 0.5% below Bitfinex/Bitstamp).
A forum user wrote that Bitfinex sales of 0.1, 0.4, or 0.8 BTC executing every 6 seconds are a product of an arbitrage bot. This sometimes goes on for hours, but recently has been more sporadic. So if there is an arbitrage bot then it must have inadequate funds to narrow the gap.
In the past it didn't make as much sense to arbitrage small differences between Bitfinex and other markets, as you could lend your USD swap out for 0.07%-0.2%/day on Bitfinex. But now that the rate is 0.024%/day - arbitrage is more competitive.
Does anyone have an explanation for why this premium is so large and not being arbitraged away?
With Bitstamp closed and Bitfinex diverging from the Chinese exchanges - it is harder to identify what the market trend is.
This is a decent arbitrage opportunity (unfortunately I lack accounts on any Chinese exchange), and a puzzle. I don't recall ever seeing such a large premium for Bitfinex over the Chinese exchanges last for more than a day.
In the 2013 bull market, the Chinese exchanges had a premium over all of the other USD markets. Gox was second place (because withdrawing USD was hard), Bitfinex and Bitstamp third, and then BTC-E was fourth (typically 0.5% below Bitfinex/Bitstamp).
A forum user wrote that Bitfinex sales of 0.1, 0.4, or 0.8 BTC executing every 6 seconds are a product of an arbitrage bot. This sometimes goes on for hours, but recently has been more sporadic. So if there is an arbitrage bot then it must have inadequate funds to narrow the gap.
In the past it didn't make as much sense to arbitrage small differences between Bitfinex and other markets, as you could lend your USD swap out for 0.07%-0.2%/day on Bitfinex. But now that the rate is 0.024%/day - arbitrage is more competitive.
Does anyone have an explanation for why this premium is so large and not being arbitraged away?
With Bitstamp closed and Bitfinex diverging from the Chinese exchanges - it is harder to identify what the market trend is.
Interesting thoughts. The price has a lot of people panicky though. Enough for more lows perhaps. I think that psychologically that the market is approaching it's despair phase.
A small percent of the overall bear market is due to the USD falling versus other currencies by 9-10% in 2014. I'd expect a 10% increase in the USD value, to cause a 5-8% decrease in the BTC USD price (if the US share of the market was 20-50%).
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
The Japanese police think that only 1% of the MtGox bitcoins were stolen by hackers, and that the remaining 99% were stolen by fraud. I'm not sure of how this should impact the market. It is possible that the MtGox CEO lost the money in trades. This is what Trendon Shavers did with his ponzi money (Bitcoin Savings and Trust), along with spending it on his expensive lifestyle. Though nobody seems to have any idea as to where the money went. If the money (or even half the money) is recovered and returned to its owners as BTC this would be very bullish. If it is auctioned off for USD, that will be crazy (drive the price down, but on the other hand the creditors will have the wealth effect and may decide to receive their credit in BTC instead of USD). If the bitcoins have been sold during the 2014 bear market, that could explain a lot of the price decrease - but on the other hand they could have been used to prop of the 2013 bull market.
If Bitcoin's main current function is to be an asset, then it might have lost most of that function during the 2014 bear market. By contrast the gambling and drug markets seem to be doing fine (JustDice and SilkRoad original shut down, but there are many replacements. The bitcoin merchant payments (Bitpay, Coinbase, etc) market is taking off - though it might have a ways to go before becoming strong enough to be a major driver of demand as it is starting at a low number.
Are there any solid numbers on how much BTC in 2014 was used gambling, drugs (grey or black markets), or merchant processing?
...
I'm not panicking about the price yet...
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
The Japanese police think that only 1% of the MtGox bitcoins were stolen by hackers, and that the remaining 99% were stolen by fraud. I'm not sure of how this should impact the market. It is possible that the MtGox CEO lost the money in trades. This is what Trendon Shavers did with his ponzi money (Bitcoin Savings and Trust), along with spending it on his expensive lifestyle. Though nobody seems to have any idea as to where the money went. If the money (or even half the money) is recovered and returned to its owners as BTC this would be very bullish. If it is auctioned off for USD, that will be crazy (drive the price down, but on the other hand the creditors will have the wealth effect and may decide to receive their credit in BTC instead of USD). If the bitcoins have been sold during the 2014 bear market, that could explain a lot of the price decrease - but on the other hand they could have been used to prop of the 2013 bull market.
If Bitcoin's main current function is to be an asset, then it might have lost most of that function during the 2014 bear market. By contrast the gambling and drug markets seem to be doing fine (JustDice and SilkRoad original shut down, but there are many replacements. The bitcoin merchant payments (Bitpay, Coinbase, etc) market is taking off - though it might have a ways to go before becoming strong enough to be a major driver of demand as it is starting at a low number.
Are there any solid numbers on how much BTC in 2014 was used gambling, drugs (grey or black markets), or merchant processing?
...
I'm not panicking about the price yet...
Watching the price fall dramatically from 310 to 260. At around 290, I moved my bid orders down (from as high as 275) to mostly be at 235. So I'm bidding for 6 at 235 and 1 at 245.
There doesn't appear to be any real news driving the slump. Maybe it's the lack of New Year's rally? Stocks (or at least US stocks) are more likely to go up in January as people sell in December to realize capital losses for taxes.
There doesn't appear to be any real news driving the slump. Maybe it's the lack of New Year's rally? Stocks (or at least US stocks) are more likely to go up in January as people sell in December to realize capital losses for taxes.
Winklevoss files to launch Bitcoin ETF
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2qx1sz/winklevoss_bitcoin_trust_files_to_sell_201/
BTC price went up from 310 to 320 after this announcement. It's hard to say how much this will increase investor demand, but making it easier to purchase bitcoins is positive.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2qx1sz/winklevoss_bitcoin_trust_files_to_sell_201/
BTC price went up from 310 to 320 after this announcement. It's hard to say how much this will increase investor demand, but making it easier to purchase bitcoins is positive.
Agree it's hard to gauge the demand that this could create and that it can only be positive bringing it more mainstream and user friendly.
Winklevoss files to launch Bitcoin ETF
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2qx1sz/winklevoss_bitcoin_trust_files_to_sell_201/
BTC price went up from 310 to 320 after this announcement. It's hard to say how much this will increase investor demand, but making it easier to purchase bitcoins is positive.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2qx1sz/winklevoss_bitcoin_trust_files_to_sell_201/
BTC price went up from 310 to 320 after this announcement. It's hard to say how much this will increase investor demand, but making it easier to purchase bitcoins is positive.
Bitfinex USD swap rates have fallen to an all-time low (or at least an all-time low since Bfxdata.com started to track it (and lower than I can remember it being in February 2013). The flash rate is down to 0.027%/day (or 10.3% APR, minus 15% fee if you are lending out). By contrast the flash rate for the entire 2014 year averages around 40% after compounding (note in practice you would have got a lower return as the capital is not always used, and don't forget the 15% fee). And I think in 2013 the USD APR was around 100%. This is evidence that there are fewer long term bulls.
By contrast BTC swap rates are up to 0.06%/day - much higher than the 2014 flash average of 7.3% APR. Might be long or short term shorters that are accumulating profits. Though I wouldn't expect the rates to stay that high for too long as the spikes are typically short term and then it goes down to 2% APR.
Icbit.se (now called orderbook.net) effective USD swap rates are occasionally much better for their Sept 15 BTC/USD contract. As you can buy the BTC now for $315 and sell it for $350-$360 on Sept 15. Note I'm not an Orderbook user. Can anyone explain in simple terms how you might make a 10-12% profit by this process?
By contrast BTC swap rates are up to 0.06%/day - much higher than the 2014 flash average of 7.3% APR. Might be long or short term shorters that are accumulating profits. Though I wouldn't expect the rates to stay that high for too long as the spikes are typically short term and then it goes down to 2% APR.
Icbit.se (now called orderbook.net) effective USD swap rates are occasionally much better for their Sept 15 BTC/USD contract. As you can buy the BTC now for $315 and sell it for $350-$360 on Sept 15. Note I'm not an Orderbook user. Can anyone explain in simple terms how you might make a 10-12% profit by this process?
Stock market continues to reach records. The third quarter of US GDP growth was very high (annualized to 5%).
Google trend for bitcoin is up.
Price is hanging out at the $300-$320 area. Normally I don't put much faith in resistance levels, but this one seems strong. We rebounded off $300 pretty hard when someone put up a 6000 (or was it 5000?) BTC ask wall at $300 on Bitstamp several weeks ago. But overall technical sentiment is very bearish as the year long bear market continues.
I think we're near the bottom, but I said that before and this time am not putting any money on i unless it goes below $300.
Bitfinex has a bot selling 0.1 BTC every six seconds or so. Doesn't seem too significant until you realize that it can add up to 1440 BTC/day if it keeps going. I think the last one only went for a couple hours or maybe an entire day?
Google trend for bitcoin is up.
Price is hanging out at the $300-$320 area. Normally I don't put much faith in resistance levels, but this one seems strong. We rebounded off $300 pretty hard when someone put up a 6000 (or was it 5000?) BTC ask wall at $300 on Bitstamp several weeks ago. But overall technical sentiment is very bearish as the year long bear market continues.
I think we're near the bottom, but I said that before and this time am not putting any money on i unless it goes below $300.
Bitfinex has a bot selling 0.1 BTC every six seconds or so. Doesn't seem too significant until you realize that it can add up to 1440 BTC/day if it keeps going. I think the last one only went for a couple hours or maybe an entire day?
S&P 500 hits another all-time-high.
Bitcoin Trust - buys approximately 6500 bitcoin/week, four weeks in a row.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/gbtc-bitcoin-investment-trust-observer-337486
Google Bitcoin search trends are flat, or slightly down, since May.
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2014%2012m&cmpt=q
Bitcoin Trust - buys approximately 6500 bitcoin/week, four weeks in a row.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/gbtc-bitcoin-investment-trust-observer-337486
Google Bitcoin search trends are flat, or slightly down, since May.
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2014%2012m&cmpt=q
S&P all-time high is bullish for bitcoin.
Unlike others who believe that bitcoin will benefit from financial crises and bank crises, I think it benefits more from a prosperous global economy. I think it is helped by real economic growth, quantitative easing, and economic inequality.
Unlike others who believe that bitcoin will benefit from financial crises and bank crises, I think it benefits more from a prosperous global economy. I think it is helped by real economic growth, quantitative easing, and economic inequality.
The whole world seems to be buying with little brakes 
I hope you all bought the majority of your coins already.
This is gentlemen!
I hope you all bought the majority of your coins already.
This is gentlemen!
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