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Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 59. (Read 82709 times)

legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
September 17, 2014, 12:59:03 AM
#28
Yesterday I spent several hours trying to figure out whether to short the TH1 mining contract at Bitfinex.    I should have taken the risk, but there wasn't enough information and it didn't make sense why the contract was trading at 2 BTC when it was probably worth 1.2 BTC or less.

Today the contract fell to 1.15 BTC - which is what it will mine if the difficulty only increases by 10% per period.  The difficulty will probably increase by 10-15%/period - but that's a total guess on my part.
legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
September 10, 2014, 06:32:35 PM
#27
I've been watching the price fall without any major reason.  Unless it is falling due to expectations not being met (ex. Wall Street isn't buying into Bitcoin) or possibly due to bitcoin miners becoming less profitable (and possibly lots of miners losing lots of money).

Positive news: Paypal subsidiary considers using Bitcoin. This could be huge.

Negative news: scams continue.  Recently Dicebitco.in">https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.1040'>Dicebitco.in either had a rogue employee that made their betting system unfair, or it was an inside job.  Also Bitcoin Trader (ponzi) continues to grow.  The problems with gambling website scams/hacks could make it hard for that sector of the bitcoin economy to grow.  Probably we'll see some professional bitcoin gambling websites in the future (and the US may legalize them) that are run by corporations with greater transparency.

Pending: the FBI is still sitting on a very large number of bitcoins from Silk Road, the MtGox bankruptcy is not settled, and the NY state regulations could set the state for the entire US (or be heavily modified and/or vary by state).
legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
August 19, 2014, 08:57:34 PM
#26
I bought 1 BTC for $451.
legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
August 18, 2014, 03:50:29 PM
#25
Price continues to fall.  Flash crash on BTC-E down to $310.  There doesn't appear to be any negative news that would impact the value of Bitcoin and actually the larger declines of most alt-coins should be a long-term boost to Bitcoin.  Bitcoin is a natural monopoly (like Ebay).

So it's a good time to buy. It's also very hard to know when to buy as volatility is up.  It is possible that Bitfinex and BTC-E could flash crash due to forced liquidations. Bitfinex has a system to slow this down, but it has only been tested once in live trading.
legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
August 15, 2014, 02:43:28 PM
#24
I'm placing some low-ball bids on BFX and some mid-ball bids.  If it falls to $100, I'll be both very poor and own a lot more BTC!
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
August 13, 2014, 07:44:22 PM
#23

I'm not buying as I'm saving my money for a new roof.



My company accepts BTC!    Cool
legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
August 13, 2014, 04:17:19 PM
#22
Price fell to $525 and recovered to $545.  It is impossible to say if this is the medium-term bottom or if the price will go down further, but if you are planning on increasing your BTC holdings this is a good time to buy.  If you're cautious you should only buy 1/4 or so of the BTC you want.  You might also place some bids in the 505-530 range.

I'm not buying as I'm saving my money for a new roof.

legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
July 31, 2014, 11:40:21 PM
#21
I didn't buy in (day trading is risky). It is now $584.
legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
July 30, 2014, 10:32:10 PM
#20
It's down a good bit (currently $562 at Bitstamp and Bitfinex) and I'm considering buying.

There doesn't appear to be much serious negative news other than the NY state Bitlicense rules which are only proposed and may change or be very different in other states (or maybe NY is a model for other states as they do have Wall Street and might have the most expertise when it comes to financial regulation).

newbie
Activity: 48
Merit: 0
July 30, 2014, 01:09:47 AM
#19
Very interesting thread, thank you for sharing some of your experience.
legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
July 29, 2014, 05:51:36 PM
#18
Without a major market move up, I expect Bitfinex USD swap rates to plummet to 0.08% or lower.  It is very puzzling why this isn't happening give that there is an excess of supply of $6 million (and a total swaps of $29 million).  Normally it would take only 1/6th of that excess supply (as a fraction of total swaps) to crash the rate.

It should be falling by 0.01%/day or more - but it is only falling by 0.002%/day.

Maybe there are lenders who expect that they can get a 0.14-0.15% flash return rate and aren't prepared to settle for less.  And they might be hoping that a bubble will return the flash return rate to 0.20%/day.  After not lending out their money for a week, you think they'd realize that rates are on a long-term downward trend.

The Bitfinex swaps are slowly declining (probably due to a reduction in the effective leverage ratio and BTC price stability).  Lower flash return rates will reduce swap supply (or the speed at which it was increasing - it is hard to actually reverse the trend) and thus limit the impact of Bitfinex on the next bubble (if there is one).  This is slightly bearish for the next bubble - though it could reduce its wide-swings (and flash crashes).
legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
July 26, 2014, 09:48:01 PM
#17
I thought Coinsetter had setup ACH transfer for the US. But apparently they have either not done it or have only done it in some states.

So in this case it isn't as useful.  You can still put money into Coinbase via ACH and then get fees refunded at Coinsetter - but it is a bit of bother.
hero member
Activity: 715
Merit: 500
July 26, 2014, 07:33:22 PM
#16
Good ideas. The impact on velocity could go either way.  And I agree that the velocity in bitcoin could technically be very high, but in practice isn't anywhere near what it could be - with the major exception of gambling (and notably people who do dice gambling with bots - where people can spend the same money 10 times in a day).  Does dice gambling count towards velocity if it is done off the chain?


I was primarily thinking about the

Size of the Economy = Money Supply * Velocity * BTC price.

 So I was commenting on how Dell's acceptance of bitcoin increases the size of the economy - and if the money supply and velocity are constant then this will increase the BTC price. 

My understanding is that even if it is done off chain, it still holds the same consideration regardless of how the transaction was processed.

And Dell's acceptance and advocation (giving 10% discounts and making video clips of how to pay with BTC) certainly increases the supply of the economy!
legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
July 26, 2014, 04:42:45 PM
#15
Good ideas. The impact on velocity could go either way.  And I agree that the velocity in bitcoin could technically be very high, but in practice isn't anywhere near what it could be - with the major exception of gambling (and notably people who do dice gambling with bots - where people can spend the same money 10 times in a day).  Does dice gambling count towards velocity if it is done off the chain?


I was primarily thinking about the

Size of the Economy = Money Supply * Velocity * BTC price.

 So I was commenting on how Dell's acceptance of bitcoin increases the size of the economy - and if the money supply and velocity are constant then this will increase the BTC price. 
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1001
July 26, 2014, 04:34:35 PM
#14
.... I believe the value of bitcoin is based on the size of the bitcoin economy (money supply * velocity  + holders)....

Doesn't a higher velocity decrease the price? For example, a hypothetical currency that has instant velocity needs much fewer units to provide the same amount of value transfer as a currency with a sluggish velocity. The less units you need to keep the flow going, the less demand there is for that purpose. I'm no professional economist, but that is my amateur understanding.


Higher velocity does mean lower valuation, by my understanding of the quantity theory of money. Basically, what you said.

I think the question of the velocity of money in a bitcoin world is a vitally important one. The technology allows for a high maximum velocity, which is one thing that makes it more useful than the current system (e.g. no need to wait until tomorrow for a check to clear), although in practice, bitcoin's actual velocity will probably not be anywhere near the technologically-imposed limit. Unless you have cash flow problems, there's simply no incentive to move bitcoins around that fast. This is especially true for anyone who uses bitcoin as a currency and an investment.

So:
- higher max velocity will increase the value of bitcoin because it makes bitcoin a better system, attracts users, and thereby increases demand
but
- higher actual velocity will decrease the value of bitcoin because it effectively makes bitcoin less scarce (quantity theory of money)
hero member
Activity: 715
Merit: 500
July 26, 2014, 03:44:22 PM
#13
.... I believe the value of bitcoin is based on the size of the bitcoin economy (money supply * velocity  + holders)....

Doesn't a higher velocity decrease the price? For example, a hypothetical currency that has instant velocity needs much fewer units to provide the same amount of value transfer as a currency with a sluggish velocity. The less units you need to keep the flow going, the less demand there is for that purpose. I'm no professional economist, but that is my amateur understanding.

I also agree though, that large companies accepting bitcoin are critical to its success and valuation.
legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
July 25, 2014, 09:55:57 PM
#12
Bullish news
Dell accepts bitcoin.  Biggest business to do so by a factor of ten.  Some people think that businesses accepting bitcoin will not have an impact or even cause the price to decline as people use the opportunity to sell their bitcoins.  They are totally wrong.  I believe the value of bitcoin is based on the size of the bitcoin economy (money supply * velocity  + holders).

Coinsetter launches. First US exchange. Coinbase isn't a real exchange (no bids and asks).  Coinsetter also has lower fees (0.25% vs 1%).

OkCoin launches international service with US dollars. Hard to know the size of the impact.


Bearish news: proposed NY state regulations are tedious.  Though they are not final.


General trends: altcoins down. Bitcoin slightly down, but mostly very stable which is good for the longterm as stability promotes adoption.


Random: I joined the bitmixer signature campaign. I find it hilarious that my signature is worth 0.01 BTC/week.

Scams: URO alt coin continues to drop (thread is hilarious).  PBMiner is probably also a scam.
legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
July 07, 2014, 02:00:59 PM
#11
Right, but it's a guaranteed profit if you invest money now and hold.  

So from a diversification point of view, if you are bullish it would make sense to put some of your money in BTC and some of the money in BTC but which will be redeemed by an icbit contract in December with a guaranteed profit (whether or not Bitcoin goes up or down).  So long as you trust Icbit.se...
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
July 04, 2014, 11:29:20 PM
#10
Not sure about
Icbit.se - you can buy a bitcoin now ($640), and sell it for 20% more in December ($769).  For the past month or so their October contract has been trading for 8-10% above market value, and the December one for 15-20%.

This seems great - it's a guaranteed return of 40% APR (minus any fees).  However I'm not sure I trust icbit.se.  I've got no experience dealing with them. They have been around for a year - so they might be worthy of trust.  Does anyone know?

I've been sticking with Bitfinex as they offer a roughly similar service and rate of return.

If those are contracts, then there is the chance the when you sell in December (for what seems like a profitable trade now), the price is higher than the contract price and you are selling way under spot then. Something to consider.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1011
July 04, 2014, 05:43:42 PM
#9
The litecoin dump that recently happened was a little surprising. With all the scrypt miners that recently came out (as well as kncs litecoin miner coming in a few months) I thought scrypts might get more support (and higher price)

a good deal of the appeal of these coins was that it was "ASIC resistant", not anymore...

It's a pity they don't allow altcoin speculation in this subforums. I sold 70% of my Litecoins yesterday and bought Peercoins. LTC has nothing to offer and is suffering from stagnation while Peercoin has some really promising projects under development (PeerShares and PeerUnity).
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