Bought 1 BTC $433
Bought 1 BTC $413
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 59. (Read 83088 times)
Bitcoin is at some kind of technical support level at $440. If it falls below $430, it could get very interesting in the short-term. But is also a great time to buy for the long term.
If the stock market has a correction this should have a negative impact on Bitcoin due to the wealth effect (people will feel poorer and thus want to hold/buy less Bitcoin). Though it is also possible that Bitcoin has a larger percent of investors who don't trust standard financial investments (the dollar, banks, stocks, etc) than in other areas of investment (other than gold) and that they'll increase their investment in Bitcoin when they see economic problems. However I don't think these skeptical investors have more money than the non-skeptical ones.
If the stock market has a correction this should have a negative impact on Bitcoin due to the wealth effect (people will feel poorer and thus want to hold/buy less Bitcoin). Though it is also possible that Bitcoin has a larger percent of investors who don't trust standard financial investments (the dollar, banks, stocks, etc) than in other areas of investment (other than gold) and that they'll increase their investment in Bitcoin when they see economic problems. However I don't think these skeptical investors have more money than the non-skeptical ones.
Yesterday I spent several hours trying to figure out whether to short the TH1 mining contract at Bitfinex. I should have taken the risk, but there wasn't enough information and it didn't make sense why the contract was trading at 2 BTC when it was probably worth 1.2 BTC or less.
Today the contract fell to 1.15 BTC - which is what it will mine if the difficulty only increases by 10% per period. The difficulty will probably increase by 10-15%/period - but that's a total guess on my part.
Today the contract fell to 1.15 BTC - which is what it will mine if the difficulty only increases by 10% per period. The difficulty will probably increase by 10-15%/period - but that's a total guess on my part.
I've been watching the price fall without any major reason. Unless it is falling due to expectations not being met (ex. Wall Street isn't buying into Bitcoin) or possibly due to bitcoin miners becoming less profitable (and possibly lots of miners losing lots of money).
Positive news: Paypal subsidiary considers using Bitcoin. This could be huge.
Negative news: scams continue. Recently Dicebitco.in">https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.1040'>Dicebitco.in either had a rogue employee that made their betting system unfair, or it was an inside job. Also Bitcoin Trader (ponzi) continues to grow. The problems with gambling website scams/hacks could make it hard for that sector of the bitcoin economy to grow. Probably we'll see some professional bitcoin gambling websites in the future (and the US may legalize them) that are run by corporations with greater transparency.
Pending: the FBI is still sitting on a very large number of bitcoins from Silk Road, the MtGox bankruptcy is not settled, and the NY state regulations could set the state for the entire US (or be heavily modified and/or vary by state).
Positive news: Paypal subsidiary considers using Bitcoin. This could be huge.
Negative news: scams continue. Recently Dicebitco.in">https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.1040'>Dicebitco.in either had a rogue employee that made their betting system unfair, or it was an inside job. Also Bitcoin Trader (ponzi) continues to grow. The problems with gambling website scams/hacks could make it hard for that sector of the bitcoin economy to grow. Probably we'll see some professional bitcoin gambling websites in the future (and the US may legalize them) that are run by corporations with greater transparency.
Pending: the FBI is still sitting on a very large number of bitcoins from Silk Road, the MtGox bankruptcy is not settled, and the NY state regulations could set the state for the entire US (or be heavily modified and/or vary by state).
I bought 1 BTC for $451.
Price continues to fall. Flash crash on BTC-E down to $310. There doesn't appear to be any negative news that would impact the value of Bitcoin and actually the larger declines of most alt-coins should be a long-term boost to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a natural monopoly (like Ebay).
So it's a good time to buy. It's also very hard to know when to buy as volatility is up. It is possible that Bitfinex and BTC-E could flash crash due to forced liquidations. Bitfinex has a system to slow this down, but it has only been tested once in live trading.
So it's a good time to buy. It's also very hard to know when to buy as volatility is up. It is possible that Bitfinex and BTC-E could flash crash due to forced liquidations. Bitfinex has a system to slow this down, but it has only been tested once in live trading.
I'm placing some low-ball bids on BFX and some mid-ball bids. If it falls to $100, I'll be both very poor and own a lot more BTC!
I'm not buying as I'm saving my money for a new roof.
My company accepts BTC!
Price fell to $525 and recovered to $545. It is impossible to say if this is the medium-term bottom or if the price will go down further, but if you are planning on increasing your BTC holdings this is a good time to buy. If you're cautious you should only buy 1/4 or so of the BTC you want. You might also place some bids in the 505-530 range.
I'm not buying as I'm saving my money for a new roof.
I'm not buying as I'm saving my money for a new roof.
I didn't buy in (day trading is risky). It is now $584.
It's down a good bit (currently $562 at Bitstamp and Bitfinex) and I'm considering buying.
There doesn't appear to be much serious negative news other than the NY state Bitlicense rules which are only proposed and may change or be very different in other states (or maybe NY is a model for other states as they do have Wall Street and might have the most expertise when it comes to financial regulation).
There doesn't appear to be much serious negative news other than the NY state Bitlicense rules which are only proposed and may change or be very different in other states (or maybe NY is a model for other states as they do have Wall Street and might have the most expertise when it comes to financial regulation).
Very interesting thread, thank you for sharing some of your experience.
Without a major market move up, I expect Bitfinex USD swap rates to plummet to 0.08% or lower. It is very puzzling why this isn't happening give that there is an excess of supply of $6 million (and a total swaps of $29 million). Normally it would take only 1/6th of that excess supply (as a fraction of total swaps) to crash the rate.
It should be falling by 0.01%/day or more - but it is only falling by 0.002%/day.
Maybe there are lenders who expect that they can get a 0.14-0.15% flash return rate and aren't prepared to settle for less. And they might be hoping that a bubble will return the flash return rate to 0.20%/day. After not lending out their money for a week, you think they'd realize that rates are on a long-term downward trend.
The Bitfinex swaps are slowly declining (probably due to a reduction in the effective leverage ratio and BTC price stability). Lower flash return rates will reduce swap supply (or the speed at which it was increasing - it is hard to actually reverse the trend) and thus limit the impact of Bitfinex on the next bubble (if there is one). This is slightly bearish for the next bubble - though it could reduce its wide-swings (and flash crashes).
It should be falling by 0.01%/day or more - but it is only falling by 0.002%/day.
Maybe there are lenders who expect that they can get a 0.14-0.15% flash return rate and aren't prepared to settle for less. And they might be hoping that a bubble will return the flash return rate to 0.20%/day. After not lending out their money for a week, you think they'd realize that rates are on a long-term downward trend.
The Bitfinex swaps are slowly declining (probably due to a reduction in the effective leverage ratio and BTC price stability). Lower flash return rates will reduce swap supply (or the speed at which it was increasing - it is hard to actually reverse the trend) and thus limit the impact of Bitfinex on the next bubble (if there is one). This is slightly bearish for the next bubble - though it could reduce its wide-swings (and flash crashes).
I thought Coinsetter had setup ACH transfer for the US. But apparently they have either not done it or have only done it in some states.
So in this case it isn't as useful. You can still put money into Coinbase via ACH and then get fees refunded at Coinsetter - but it is a bit of bother.
So in this case it isn't as useful. You can still put money into Coinbase via ACH and then get fees refunded at Coinsetter - but it is a bit of bother.
Good ideas. The impact on velocity could go either way. And I agree that the velocity in bitcoin could technically be very high, but in practice isn't anywhere near what it could be - with the major exception of gambling (and notably people who do dice gambling with bots - where people can spend the same money 10 times in a day). Does dice gambling count towards velocity if it is done off the chain?
I was primarily thinking about the
Size of the Economy = Money Supply * Velocity * BTC price.
So I was commenting on how Dell's acceptance of bitcoin increases the size of the economy - and if the money supply and velocity are constant then this will increase the BTC price.
I was primarily thinking about the
Size of the Economy = Money Supply * Velocity * BTC price.
So I was commenting on how Dell's acceptance of bitcoin increases the size of the economy - and if the money supply and velocity are constant then this will increase the BTC price.
My understanding is that even if it is done off chain, it still holds the same consideration regardless of how the transaction was processed.
And Dell's acceptance and advocation (giving 10% discounts and making video clips of how to pay with BTC) certainly increases the supply of the economy!
Good ideas. The impact on velocity could go either way. And I agree that the velocity in bitcoin could technically be very high, but in practice isn't anywhere near what it could be - with the major exception of gambling (and notably people who do dice gambling with bots - where people can spend the same money 10 times in a day). Does dice gambling count towards velocity if it is done off the chain?
I was primarily thinking about the
Size of the Economy = Money Supply * Velocity * BTC price.
So I was commenting on how Dell's acceptance of bitcoin increases the size of the economy - and if the money supply and velocity are constant then this will increase the BTC price.
I was primarily thinking about the
Size of the Economy = Money Supply * Velocity * BTC price.
So I was commenting on how Dell's acceptance of bitcoin increases the size of the economy - and if the money supply and velocity are constant then this will increase the BTC price.
.... I believe the value of bitcoin is based on the size of the bitcoin economy (money supply * velocity + holders)....
Doesn't a higher velocity decrease the price? For example, a hypothetical currency that has instant velocity needs much fewer units to provide the same amount of value transfer as a currency with a sluggish velocity. The less units you need to keep the flow going, the less demand there is for that purpose. I'm no professional economist, but that is my amateur understanding.
Higher velocity does mean lower valuation, by my understanding of the quantity theory of money. Basically, what you said.
I think the question of the velocity of money in a bitcoin world is a vitally important one. The technology allows for a high maximum velocity, which is one thing that makes it more useful than the current system (e.g. no need to wait until tomorrow for a check to clear), although in practice, bitcoin's actual velocity will probably not be anywhere near the technologically-imposed limit. Unless you have cash flow problems, there's simply no incentive to move bitcoins around that fast. This is especially true for anyone who uses bitcoin as a currency and an investment.
So:
- higher max velocity will increase the value of bitcoin because it makes bitcoin a better system, attracts users, and thereby increases demand
but
- higher actual velocity will decrease the value of bitcoin because it effectively makes bitcoin less scarce (quantity theory of money)
.... I believe the value of bitcoin is based on the size of the bitcoin economy (money supply * velocity + holders)....
Doesn't a higher velocity decrease the price? For example, a hypothetical currency that has instant velocity needs much fewer units to provide the same amount of value transfer as a currency with a sluggish velocity. The less units you need to keep the flow going, the less demand there is for that purpose. I'm no professional economist, but that is my amateur understanding.
I also agree though, that large companies accepting bitcoin are critical to its success and valuation.
Bullish news
Dell accepts bitcoin. Biggest business to do so by a factor of ten. Some people think that businesses accepting bitcoin will not have an impact or even cause the price to decline as people use the opportunity to sell their bitcoins. They are totally wrong. I believe the value of bitcoin is based on the size of the bitcoin economy (money supply * velocity + holders).
Coinsetter launches. First US exchange. Coinbase isn't a real exchange (no bids and asks). Coinsetter also has lower fees (0.25% vs 1%).
OkCoin launches international service with US dollars. Hard to know the size of the impact.
Bearish news: proposed NY state regulations are tedious. Though they are not final.
General trends: altcoins down. Bitcoin slightly down, but mostly very stable which is good for the longterm as stability promotes adoption.
Random: I joined the bitmixer signature campaign. I find it hilarious that my signature is worth 0.01 BTC/week.
Scams: URO alt coin continues to drop (thread is hilarious). PBMiner is probably also a scam.
Dell accepts bitcoin. Biggest business to do so by a factor of ten. Some people think that businesses accepting bitcoin will not have an impact or even cause the price to decline as people use the opportunity to sell their bitcoins. They are totally wrong. I believe the value of bitcoin is based on the size of the bitcoin economy (money supply * velocity + holders).
Coinsetter launches. First US exchange. Coinbase isn't a real exchange (no bids and asks). Coinsetter also has lower fees (0.25% vs 1%).
OkCoin launches international service with US dollars. Hard to know the size of the impact.
Bearish news: proposed NY state regulations are tedious. Though they are not final.
General trends: altcoins down. Bitcoin slightly down, but mostly very stable which is good for the longterm as stability promotes adoption.
Random: I joined the bitmixer signature campaign. I find it hilarious that my signature is worth 0.01 BTC/week.
Scams: URO alt coin continues to drop (thread is hilarious). PBMiner is probably also a scam.
Right, but it's a guaranteed profit if you invest money now and hold.
So from a diversification point of view, if you are bullish it would make sense to put some of your money in BTC and some of the money in BTC but which will be redeemed by an icbit contract in December with a guaranteed profit (whether or not Bitcoin goes up or down). So long as you trust Icbit.se...
So from a diversification point of view, if you are bullish it would make sense to put some of your money in BTC and some of the money in BTC but which will be redeemed by an icbit contract in December with a guaranteed profit (whether or not Bitcoin goes up or down). So long as you trust Icbit.se...
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