In the last 24 hours the price is up 15% to around $430. Are there any fundamentals behind this?
Last I heard the Australian government was going to auction some seized bitcoins, OKcoin's 20x leverage (actually a futures difference contract) is popular and other Chinese exchanges are adding new future option, and NCR is adding bitcoins to one of their payment systems.
The NCR story could be big - but I frankly have no idea.
After months of low activity, the Bitcoin Trust has bought 14,000 bitcoins in the past week.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/gbtc-bitcoin-investment-trust-observer-337486
Other than that, there is a constant stream of innovation which might be pushing the price up.
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 58. (Read 82714 times)
I've closed all of my TH1 short. That was painful! I lost approximately $3000. I think there is a small possibility that Bitfinex will realize their mistake and reverse the trades.
I'm now considering going long to take advantage of the bad design of the contract. I'm not even sure it needs a manipulator. It is possible that a large enough number of mining enthusiasts would inflate the contract price and then eventually realize that they can make a killing because the contract's design is so bad. However this is an extremely risky idea, and I really shouldn't do it. I need to focus on lowering my risk (or I need to work more hours at my consulting job).
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Buying the 8 bitcoins at $303.70. Wow - looks like a great call so far! That's the third falling knife I've caught near the bottom, and there is one rising knife that I caught at the top (when I sold at $700-$800, 6-12 hours before it flash crashed). Though in this case it was pretty easy to catch as there were 30,000 bitcoins sold at that price.
I'm now considering going long to take advantage of the bad design of the contract. I'm not even sure it needs a manipulator. It is possible that a large enough number of mining enthusiasts would inflate the contract price and then eventually realize that they can make a killing because the contract's design is so bad. However this is an extremely risky idea, and I really shouldn't do it. I need to focus on lowering my risk (or I need to work more hours at my consulting job).
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Buying the 8 bitcoins at $303.70. Wow - looks like a great call so far! That's the third falling knife I've caught near the bottom, and there is one rising knife that I caught at the top (when I sold at $700-$800, 6-12 hours before it flash crashed). Though in this case it was pretty easy to catch as there were 30,000 bitcoins sold at that price.
I've closed most of my TH1 short. I think it might be manipulated - so it isn't safe to short it until the last 30 days and you know what your swap costs will be (if you can get a 30 day swap).
I wonder with the IQ and skills of calculation of most GH investor, it will be 1.3 until like 15 Dec lol....
And for Bitfinex, you actually don't have to back anything, you just pin point the pool and no one knows if we/you actually own the hash rate. You guys can just issue extra 3500-500=3000 more shares for free and take the profit in the middle (issue price-actually mined which is almost impossible to reach your ridiculous price)
PS: I am sure placing on the orderbook is much easier but they go for private whale negotiation. Transparency low as fuck
And for Bitfinex, you actually don't have to back anything, you just pin point the pool and no one knows if we/you actually own the hash rate. You guys can just issue extra 3500-500=3000 more shares for free and take the profit in the middle (issue price-actually mined which is almost impossible to reach your ridiculous price)
PS: I am sure placing on the orderbook is much easier but they go for private whale negotiation. Transparency low as fuck
I bought 8 bitcoins at $303.70 on Circle -- partially to transfer funds to Bitfinex and to replace some of the bitcoins I've been paying out in dividends on my TH1 shorts. Circle was 1.2% above Bitstamp ($300), but lower than Bitfinex ($307). Previously I saw a 0.5% premium at Circle. I'm not sure how they set their prices.
But this does increase my general Bitcoin position as a percent of my liquid assets. Frankly I'm a bit over-invested and it's a very risky position. Though it's easy for me to take risky positions as I can save 20-30% of my income each month as my living expenses are dirt cheap.
Just looked now and there is a decent arbitrage opportunity. Buy at Bitstamp for $300 (or Circle - though not as great) and sell at Bitfinex ($312). As the gap isn't that large it makes most sense to use it if you were planning on transferring funds to Bitfinex.
But this does increase my general Bitcoin position as a percent of my liquid assets. Frankly I'm a bit over-invested and it's a very risky position. Though it's easy for me to take risky positions as I can save 20-30% of my income each month as my living expenses are dirt cheap.
Just looked now and there is a decent arbitrage opportunity. Buy at Bitstamp for $300 (or Circle - though not as great) and sell at Bitfinex ($312). As the gap isn't that large it makes most sense to use it if you were planning on transferring funds to Bitfinex.
I agree on the mining economy affecting the general bitcoin economy.
When people started discussing the transition to ASICs, I thought that the impact of high capital costs and low marginal costs would ruin a lot of miners and miner manufacturers - as people would continue to run their ASIC so long as it produced more than the cost of electricity, but they'd never get the ROI. And manufacturers would continue to manufacture so long as their marginal cost of production was lower than the sale price (even though most of them wouldn't make ROI due to the high design costs of the chips). We managed to avoid that because bitcoin prices went up by a factor of 100 and, to a lesser extent, because the initial batches of miners were smaller and less efficient. I didn't forsee that there would be such large differences between early and later ASICs.
Currently a lot of people are losing money on mining. Though I really have no idea how much money we're talking about. People are losing even more money on cloud mining.
When people started discussing the transition to ASICs, I thought that the impact of high capital costs and low marginal costs would ruin a lot of miners and miner manufacturers - as people would continue to run their ASIC so long as it produced more than the cost of electricity, but they'd never get the ROI. And manufacturers would continue to manufacture so long as their marginal cost of production was lower than the sale price (even though most of them wouldn't make ROI due to the high design costs of the chips). We managed to avoid that because bitcoin prices went up by a factor of 100 and, to a lesser extent, because the initial batches of miners were smaller and less efficient. I didn't forsee that there would be such large differences between early and later ASICs.
Currently a lot of people are losing money on mining. Though I really have no idea how much money we're talking about. People are losing even more money on cloud mining.
TH1 continues to be over-valued. The price is up over the past 10 days - when it should be declining each day. The difficulty outlook is good (next increase might be 0%, but I'd expect 7% increases afterwards). I expect a sharp correction within the next 0-40 days.
I started a TH1 speculation thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/th1btc-speculation-thread-bitfinex-cloud-mining-contract-802718
BTC is slowly falling and approaching the year all time low. I think it's a great time for a new investor to buy. It's a decent time to buy if you are fine with increasing your BTC asset allocation. For me, I'm just sad about all the money I'm losing. As another user wrote, the fundamentals are good but the technicals are bad. That said, I prefer to use fundamentals - so I'm optimist.
LTC is doing well given these circumstances.
Do you think BTC will have a dramatic mini flash crash (high volume, loss of 5-10% in maybe 1-2 hours) before it reaches the bottom? Or will it just have a small bounce that reverses the long-term slow decline, and then turns into a slow recovery?
I started a TH1 speculation thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/th1btc-speculation-thread-bitfinex-cloud-mining-contract-802718
BTC is slowly falling and approaching the year all time low. I think it's a great time for a new investor to buy. It's a decent time to buy if you are fine with increasing your BTC asset allocation. For me, I'm just sad about all the money I'm losing. As another user wrote, the fundamentals are good but the technicals are bad. That said, I prefer to use fundamentals - so I'm optimist.
LTC is doing well given these circumstances.
Do you think BTC will have a dramatic mini flash crash (high volume, loss of 5-10% in maybe 1-2 hours) before it reaches the bottom? Or will it just have a small bounce that reverses the long-term slow decline, and then turns into a slow recovery?
Lately it's really hard to predict numbers. I think there is a mining reason why price is dropping. Large capitals got into mining hardware so because of ROI and also because of who has large mining farm wants somehow to keep price low to keep others out of the game, they are dumping.
But as you said, fundamentals are great and I, like you do, don't day trade but look for good positions.
BTC, LTC and DOGE in my opinion are the best three horses by now.
I was a bear because most startups fail and the huge number of scams and really bad Bitcoin startups that were obviously going to fail. I'm also politically biased against libertarians (I'm an anarchist) - so I figured this was a great case of capitalism without regulation and speculation gone wild!
In 2011 it was easy to be bearish because the currency had gone from $1 (or even $0.01) to $32 and didn't have any serious business/projects behind it. Bitcoin didn't really establish itself (in terms of projects and also media attention) until 2013. There were a ton of joke companies listed on GLBSE (bitcoin stock exchange).
In 2012, I didn't really think about it. I was upset about losing money on the Bitcoinica hack.
In 2013, I started to see it becoming more serious. There were actually businesses using Bitcoin that you could trust. Then I realized that capitalists love to speculate/gamble and Bitcoin was a good fit for our society with its massive economic inequality, quantitative easing, and fascination with high tech startups. Since then, I've seen all the alt-coins fail to succeed. Previously I thought that there was infinite inflation as you could have an infinite number of easily created cryptos. We've seen hundreds of them created, but Bitcoin still has 90-95% of the market share.
It's also possible that I'm just extremely jealous that about people who bought in earlier and am making a terrible mistake
In 2011 it was easy to be bearish because the currency had gone from $1 (or even $0.01) to $32 and didn't have any serious business/projects behind it. Bitcoin didn't really establish itself (in terms of projects and also media attention) until 2013. There were a ton of joke companies listed on GLBSE (bitcoin stock exchange).
In 2012, I didn't really think about it. I was upset about losing money on the Bitcoinica hack.
In 2013, I started to see it becoming more serious. There were actually businesses using Bitcoin that you could trust. Then I realized that capitalists love to speculate/gamble and Bitcoin was a good fit for our society with its massive economic inequality, quantitative easing, and fascination with high tech startups. Since then, I've seen all the alt-coins fail to succeed. Previously I thought that there was infinite inflation as you could have an infinite number of easily created cryptos. We've seen hundreds of them created, but Bitcoin still has 90-95% of the market share.
It's also possible that I'm just extremely jealous that about people who bought in earlier and am making a terrible mistake
OP can I ask why you were a bear on Bitcoin in 2011/2012/2013??
You have to be kicking yourself...., and what made you switch to a bull?
You have to be kicking yourself...., and what made you switch to a bull?
TH1 continues to be over-valued. The price is up over the past 10 days - when it should be declining each day. The difficulty outlook is good (next increase might be 0%, but I'd expect 7% increases afterwards). I expect a sharp correction within the next 0-40 days.
I started a TH1 speculation thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/th1btc-speculation-thread-bitfinex-cloud-mining-contract-802718
BTC is slowly falling and approaching the year all time low. I think it's a great time for a new investor to buy. It's a decent time to buy if you are fine with increasing your BTC asset allocation. For me, I'm just sad about all the money I'm losing. As another user wrote, the fundamentals are good but the technicals are bad. That said, I prefer to use fundamentals - so I'm optimist.
LTC is doing well given these circumstances.
Do you think BTC will have a dramatic mini flash crash (high volume, loss of 5-10% in maybe 1-2 hours) before it reaches the bottom? Or will it just have a small bounce that reverses the long-term slow decline, and then turns into a slow recovery?
I started a TH1 speculation thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/th1btc-speculation-thread-bitfinex-cloud-mining-contract-802718
BTC is slowly falling and approaching the year all time low. I think it's a great time for a new investor to buy. It's a decent time to buy if you are fine with increasing your BTC asset allocation. For me, I'm just sad about all the money I'm losing. As another user wrote, the fundamentals are good but the technicals are bad. That said, I prefer to use fundamentals - so I'm optimist.
LTC is doing well given these circumstances.
Do you think BTC will have a dramatic mini flash crash (high volume, loss of 5-10% in maybe 1-2 hours) before it reaches the bottom? Or will it just have a small bounce that reverses the long-term slow decline, and then turns into a slow recovery?
So I sold my Dogecoin at very near the bottom. I'm amazed that it recovered from 22 and just peaked at 110.
In other news, I'm focused on shorting TH1. I'm puzzled why it isn't going down and why there is such a strong bid wall.
In other news, I'm focused on shorting TH1. I'm puzzled why it isn't going down and why there is such a strong bid wall.
I'm shorting TH1 mining contract on Bitfinex.
Price: 1.15 BTC.
Estimated Mining Value: 0.9-0.95 BTC (based on a 16% difficulty increase, followed by 10%).
Estimated Swap Value: unknown. Currently 0.2%/day (or 0.023 BTC) but might approach zero as Bitfinex issues more shares.
And fortunately for me Bitfinex just issued another 100 shares. I've started a short TH1 musings thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=794060.new#new
Price: 1.15 BTC.
Estimated Mining Value: 0.9-0.95 BTC (based on a 16% difficulty increase, followed by 10%).
Estimated Swap Value: unknown. Currently 0.2%/day (or 0.023 BTC) but might approach zero as Bitfinex issues more shares.
And fortunately for me Bitfinex just issued another 100 shares. I've started a short TH1 musings thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=794060.new#new
I closed my LTC swap with a small profit (or probably breaking even after swap cost).
So far this year, I've made a 26% return on swap interest at BFX - and lost 95% of this amount trading (mostly holding).
BFX was on-schedule to return more than 40% APR, but then the swap rate fell to 0.04%/day. It is possible that the annual return could still reach 40% as there is a lot of variance between months - a 5% monthly return is possible (though not probable without a bull market). Unfortunately the swap return for USD is correlated with the investment return on Bitcoins which means my risk is also correlated.
So far this year, I've made a 26% return on swap interest at BFX - and lost 95% of this amount trading (mostly holding).
BFX was on-schedule to return more than 40% APR, but then the swap rate fell to 0.04%/day. It is possible that the annual return could still reach 40% as there is a lot of variance between months - a 5% monthly return is possible (though not probable without a bull market). Unfortunately the swap return for USD is correlated with the investment return on Bitcoins which means my risk is also correlated.
Bitfinex BTC lending rates have typically been very low (typically 2% APR). It is only worthwhile to lend out in extreme bear markets. That said I recently managed to lend out several BTC for 0.19%/day for 8 days. I was very lucky that the borrower didn't cancel the loans and get cheaper rates as they could have easily done.
The USD lending rates have historically been more attractive. Typically 40% APR - but recently as low as 10%. Currently back to around 20% APR due to market instability.
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In other news - bought 1 BTC at 393.
I'm buying on the "3"s with the theory that there is more price resistance at each ten dollar mark - and also at the one dollar and two dollar above the ten dollar mark (as a reaction to the resistance at the ten dollar mark). So if it breaks through the ten dollar mark - it will often end up in the xx1-xx4 range. Though this strategy will have limited effect if there is sizable non-US dollar demand, or if there are differences between US exchanges (like the BTC-e 1-3% price gap)
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I'm surprised that neither BTC-E or Bitfinex have done forced liquidations of long positions and flash crashed. This is always possible, and if you are on BTC-E it might make sense to place some very low bids (in the 100s and 200s). It makes less sense at Bitfinex as they are likely to reverse the trades.
The USD lending rates have historically been more attractive. Typically 40% APR - but recently as low as 10%. Currently back to around 20% APR due to market instability.
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In other news - bought 1 BTC at 393.
I'm buying on the "3"s with the theory that there is more price resistance at each ten dollar mark - and also at the one dollar and two dollar above the ten dollar mark (as a reaction to the resistance at the ten dollar mark). So if it breaks through the ten dollar mark - it will often end up in the xx1-xx4 range. Though this strategy will have limited effect if there is sizable non-US dollar demand, or if there are differences between US exchanges (like the BTC-e 1-3% price gap)
---
I'm surprised that neither BTC-E or Bitfinex have done forced liquidations of long positions and flash crashed. This is always possible, and if you are on BTC-E it might make sense to place some very low bids (in the 100s and 200s). It makes less sense at Bitfinex as they are likely to reverse the trades.
Very nice thread, good analysis!
Definately subbing this, would be nice if you could post a little more consistently tho
I'm also in a buying mood at these prices, bought 1 near $450 today and 3 near $430.
Definately subbing this, would be nice if you could post a little more consistently tho
I'm also in a buying mood at these prices, bought 1 near $450 today and 3 near $430.
Well mostly I'm very puzzled at what is going on and don't do much trading. I could briefly mention how I managed to sell my DOGE at the wrong time (around 27 satoshis - now worth 65 satoshis), or how my small Litecoin short is only barely profitable (and that is only if you don't count the swap payments). I turned negative on alt-coins, but Litecoin has actually done better than Bitcoin since I shorted it.
The only good news is that Bitfinex swap rates are up for both USD and BTC. I highly recommend lending out swaps if you can get good rates.
Too bad to hear about your alt-coin trading.
I'm myself not really a trader, I just buy BTC whenever I can, buying increasingly more at lower prices.
I never even bought BTC trough an exchange, only via a Dutch broker and with deals on this forum.
I bought and traded Monero (XMR) for a while and now only buying and holding because I already made some profit in BTC and have good faith in the future of the coin.
The rest of my BTC I invest in the house of a BTC dice site.
I'm unfamiliar with shorting coins and swaps on Bitfinex, I know you can lend out your BTC there but never read into it yet, how much profit can you make with let's say 10 BTC on there? Thanks!
Very nice thread, good analysis!
Definately subbing this, would be nice if you could post a little more consistently tho
I'm also in a buying mood at these prices, bought 1 near $450 today and 3 near $430.
Definately subbing this, would be nice if you could post a little more consistently tho
I'm also in a buying mood at these prices, bought 1 near $450 today and 3 near $430.
Well mostly I'm very puzzled at what is going on and don't do much trading. I could briefly mention how I managed to sell my DOGE at the wrong time (around 27 satoshis - now worth 65 satoshis), or how my small Litecoin short is only barely profitable (and that is only if you don't count the swap payments). I turned negative on alt-coins, but Litecoin has actually done better than Bitcoin since I shorted it.
The only good news is that Bitfinex swap rates are up for both USD and BTC. I highly recommend lending out swaps if you can get good rates.
Bought 1 BTC $433
Bought 1 BTC $413
Bought 1 BTC $413
Hopefully in a few months you will be a very happy camper.
Very nice thread, good analysis!
Definately subbing this, would be nice if you could post a little more consistently tho
I'm also in a buying mood at these prices, bought 1 near $450 today and 3 near $430.
Definately subbing this, would be nice if you could post a little more consistently tho
I'm also in a buying mood at these prices, bought 1 near $450 today and 3 near $430.
Bought 1 BTC $433
Bought 1 BTC $413
Bought 1 BTC $413
Bitcoin is at some kind of technical support level at $440. If it falls below $430, it could get very interesting in the short-term. But is also a great time to buy for the long term.
If the stock market has a correction this should have a negative impact on Bitcoin due to the wealth effect (people will feel poorer and thus want to hold/buy less Bitcoin). Though it is also possible that Bitcoin has a larger percent of investors who don't trust standard financial investments (the dollar, banks, stocks, etc) than in other areas of investment (other than gold) and that they'll increase their investment in Bitcoin when they see economic problems. However I don't think these skeptical investors have more money than the non-skeptical ones.
If the stock market has a correction this should have a negative impact on Bitcoin due to the wealth effect (people will feel poorer and thus want to hold/buy less Bitcoin). Though it is also possible that Bitcoin has a larger percent of investors who don't trust standard financial investments (the dollar, banks, stocks, etc) than in other areas of investment (other than gold) and that they'll increase their investment in Bitcoin when they see economic problems. However I don't think these skeptical investors have more money than the non-skeptical ones.
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