You know you look at too many bitcoin charts when you look at the SP 500 chart and think that it isn't close to being an exponential blow off top =) At 3250 (another ATH) today, it still needs to hit 4000 in the next several months!
Hmm, up 60% in the past four years of sluggish economic growth. Fueled by easy money, lack of competition from bonds, and corporate stock buy backs.
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 8. (Read 83046 times)
Got banned from Hexcoin reddit. My first reddit ban! I think I made 2-3 comments, one of which was how Hexcoin was ahead of Buttcoin on search trends - but at least Buttcoin has a use case. LOL. They must be very nervous if they are banning people like me. I reported the reddit as a scam before I got banned. Unfortunately I doubt that reddit admins will do anything.
That said, our last three bear markets bottomed in December, January, and December. So that's an interesting pattern!
I hadn't really considered that. I don't want to put too much stock into it due to the lack of data, but interesting indeed!
Maybe it has to do with the January Effect:
Quote
The January Effect is a perceived seasonal increase in stock prices during the month of January. Analysts generally attribute this rally to an increase in buying, which follows the drop in price that typically happens in December when investors, engaging in tax-loss harvesting to offset realized capital gains, prompt a sell-off. Another possible explanation is that investors use year-end cash bonuses to purchase investments the following month.
I think a common mistake among analysts who try to use numbers and reason to predict the direction of bitcoin price is the reliance upon the last two or three cycles. This is a tiny sample size and bitcoin could do something completely different. We may have already seen that with the bull market to 13.8k which failed to set a higher high. There are so many indicators that worked near perfectly on the past two or three cycles, but could easily be blown out of the water if something different happenned - let alone if we never had another bull cycle (or our next bull cycles were more like 50%-100% instead of 50x-100x).
It'd be better to draw more insight from how bubbles work. And maybe how some breakthroughs happen and others fail.
That said, our last three bear markets bottomed in December, January, and December. So that's an interesting pattern!
In the US, people who bought at above 7k should be selling to harvest the tax loss (or have done so within the past two months). Though as they can buy back in within minutes, this shouldn't adversely affect the price.
It'd be better to draw more insight from how bubbles work. And maybe how some breakthroughs happen and others fail.
That said, our last three bear markets bottomed in December, January, and December. So that's an interesting pattern!
In the US, people who bought at above 7k should be selling to harvest the tax loss (or have done so within the past two months). Though as they can buy back in within minutes, this shouldn't adversely affect the price.
Nice report on how this expansion cycle compares to previous ones.
https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/chart-book-tracking-the-post-great-recession-economy
https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/chart-book-tracking-the-post-great-recession-economy
Darkest before dawn.
Let's revisit this post in a few months.
Thank you. I'm a litte bit bearish and scared because of the Plustoken Scam. They've a lot of Bitcoins and could dump the Price even lower than yet. What do you think about it ?Let's revisit this post in a few months.
Haven't they supposedly dumped more than half their BTC already? That's one thing to take into account. They don't have an endless supply, and the lower the price is, the less capital it takes to absorb their distribution.
I also believe demand from accumulators is much stronger in this sub-$8K range than in the $10K+ range from the summer. So in my opinion, the remaining 20K BTC in their possession won't affect the price as much as earlier in the year.
Demand is what really matters. In a strong BTC bull market like late 2016 or 2017, the Plus Token scam would be a drop in the bucket. We just aren't there yet.
@exstasie
There are other dynamics to consider that could show us otherwise. Personally I noticed people are less excited about the event and they are more skeptical, especially the traders.
There are other dynamics to consider that could show us otherwise. Personally I noticed people are less excited about the event and they are more skeptical, especially the traders.
That's what I'm getting at. I'm noticing the same thing. Everybody has gotten so bearish they aren't buying into halving hype anymore.
This is a good thing. It's exactly what happened in early 2016. Around April or May that year, we were all saying things like "the halving is already priced in!" We were shell shocked from the 2014-2015 bear market and assumed the late 2015 rally must have been a bull trap.
Does that narrative sound familiar? Because I'm seeing it everywhere I look now.
If you compare with the last 6 months before the previous halvings in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin jumped x2.3 and x1.7
There are 4 months left and considering the market nowadays Bitcoin is crawling to me. $12k in September and $7k in December. It doesn't look good :/
There are 4 months left and considering the market nowadays Bitcoin is crawling to me. $12k in September and $7k in December. It doesn't look good :/
Darkest before dawn.
Let's revisit this post in a few months.
@exstasie
There are other dynamics to consider that could show us otherwise. Personally I noticed people are less excited about the event and they are more skeptical, especially the traders.
There are other dynamics to consider that could show us otherwise. Personally I noticed people are less excited about the event and they are more skeptical, especially the traders.
That's what I'm getting at. I'm noticing the same thing. Everybody has gotten so bearish they aren't buying into halving hype anymore.
This is a good thing. It's exactly what happened in early 2016. Around April or May that year, we were all saying things like "the halving is already priced in!" We were shell shocked from the 2014-2015 bear market and assumed the late 2015 rally must have been a bull trap.
Does that narrative sound familiar? Because I'm seeing it everywhere I look now.
If you compare with the last 6 months before the previous halvings in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin jumped x2.3 and x1.7
There are 4 months left and considering the market nowadays Bitcoin is crawling to me. $12k in September and $7k in December. It doesn't look good :/
There are 4 months left and considering the market nowadays Bitcoin is crawling to me. $12k in September and $7k in December. It doesn't look good :/
Darkest before dawn.
Let's revisit this post in a few months.
@exstasie
There are other dynamics to consider that could show us otherwise. Personally I noticed people are less excited about the event and they are more skeptical, especially the traders.
If you compare with the last 6 months before the previous halvings in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin jumped x2.3 and x1.7
There are 4 months left and considering the market nowadays Bitcoin is crawling to me. $12k in September and $7k in December. It doesn't look good :/
@nrd525
There are other dynamics to consider that could show us otherwise. Personally I noticed people are less excited about the event and they are more skeptical, especially the traders.
If you compare with the last 6 months before the previous halvings in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin jumped x2.3 and x1.7
There are 4 months left and considering the market nowadays Bitcoin is crawling to me. $12k in September and $7k in December. It doesn't look good :/
@nrd525
Quote
A lot of speculators will have to learn about how people reduce risk by moving money into secure investments like US treasuries or cash. This will come as a surprise to the libertarians who believe that bitcoin is an alternative to governments and banks.
Sadly people turned Bitcoin from a payment mean to a speculative asset. 90% of the activity is concerning trading and not real uses. In the 1 month to 6 months time frame, I've got no idea what will happen.
No opinion on the upcoming halving next May? The August 2012 rally (in the old days we called it a "bubble") happened shortly before a halving. Same with the rally ending July 2016, where price roughly doubled over a couple months.
The bearish trend over the last 6 months suggests the market hasn't begun pricing the halving in yet. That gives me a bullish outlook for Q1 next year.
But at some point in the next 3 months to 2 years, I'm expecting a bottom caused by a lack of interest and a global economic slowdown that will include a recession in a lot of the industrialized countries where bitcoin demand is greatest.
Perhaps 2 years out, yes. The stock market is extremely bullish right now though, which is good for BTC. Bitcoin and stocks have both been in a strong uptrend for the last 10 years.
In the 1 month to 6 months time frame, I've got no idea what will happen.
But at some point in the next 3 months to 2 years, I'm expecting a bottom caused by a lack of interest and a global economic slowdown that will include a recession in a lot of the industrialized countries where bitcoin demand is greatest. We've never seen how bitcoin will act in an economic slowdown, and my guess is it will be bad. A lot of speculators will have to learn about how people reduce risk by moving money into secure investments like US treasuries or cash. This will come as a surprise to the libertarians who believe that bitcoin is an alternative to governments and banks.
It's possible that the libertarians will reduce the depth of the bear market, but I expect them to be overwhelmed by smart money.
If Bitcoin fails to provide safety during a global slowdown, it will reduce its longterm value.
Sold 1 BTC for 7249
(have about 4 btc left)
But at some point in the next 3 months to 2 years, I'm expecting a bottom caused by a lack of interest and a global economic slowdown that will include a recession in a lot of the industrialized countries where bitcoin demand is greatest. We've never seen how bitcoin will act in an economic slowdown, and my guess is it will be bad. A lot of speculators will have to learn about how people reduce risk by moving money into secure investments like US treasuries or cash. This will come as a surprise to the libertarians who believe that bitcoin is an alternative to governments and banks.
It's possible that the libertarians will reduce the depth of the bear market, but I expect them to be overwhelmed by smart money.
If Bitcoin fails to provide safety during a global slowdown, it will reduce its longterm value.
Sold 1 BTC for 7249
(have about 4 btc left)
Sold 1 btc at 7140 (before the run-up to 7440). (Edit: And then it went up to 7680, but fell back to 7200).
Notably search trends are saying that this move to 13.8k wasn't based on demand. The fact that we peaked at 20 (search trend) at 13.8k vs 100 at the 2017 high is very compelling.
the disparity suggests to me that the run to $13.8k was just a warm up. it took very little mainstream interest and awareness to reach that price. it wasn't the climax of a bubble, just the start of a new bull market. compare google trends for the june 2016 rally to december 2013---it's much lower, but it was the early stages of a bull market and we ended up going to a new ATH. the same thing could be occurring now.
it's in the later stages of the next bubble---when CNBC, forbes, and other mainstream media are hyping crypto everyday and mom and pops are buying in---where we would expect to reach 100 again.
"For instance, this past 12 months the search trend peaked at the ATH."
(clarification: I meant the high for those 12 months, eg. 13.8k)
Search trends are correlated with demand. There isn't a perfect correlation because search trends can be bad (Ex. Is bitcoin a scam? What did Biden do in Ukraine?).
I used search trends as one of many variables for my 2016 Democratic Primary model which ended up better than the 538 model after several iterations (though not as good as the Decision Desk HQ model). Search trends matter and I made money betting on them on PredictIt.
Notably search trends are saying that this move to 13.8k wasn't based on demand. The fact that we peaked at 20 (search trend) at 13.8k vs 100 at the 2017 high is very compelling. After we came out of the 3k bottom, I started selling bitcoins at 5700-5900 (1.7 btc), and then sold a bit more at 8100-8300 (0.6 btc) -- because I was skeptical about the move. Of course then I decided to buy back in at 9k (0.8 btc) in case we were back in a bull market, and decided to fomo at 11k (0.5 btc).
...
There might be a ponzi cycle. Bitconnect was associated with the 2017 high, and PlusToken with the 2019 one. Previously we had Bitcoin Savings and Trust which died in August 2012 and wasn't associated with a strong bull market. It's quite possible that there will be another major ponzi every couple years. We need more research into whether they are caused by bull markets or help cause the bull markets.
(clarification: I meant the high for those 12 months, eg. 13.8k)
Search trends are correlated with demand. There isn't a perfect correlation because search trends can be bad (Ex. Is bitcoin a scam? What did Biden do in Ukraine?).
I used search trends as one of many variables for my 2016 Democratic Primary model which ended up better than the 538 model after several iterations (though not as good as the Decision Desk HQ model). Search trends matter and I made money betting on them on PredictIt.
Notably search trends are saying that this move to 13.8k wasn't based on demand. The fact that we peaked at 20 (search trend) at 13.8k vs 100 at the 2017 high is very compelling. After we came out of the 3k bottom, I started selling bitcoins at 5700-5900 (1.7 btc), and then sold a bit more at 8100-8300 (0.6 btc) -- because I was skeptical about the move. Of course then I decided to buy back in at 9k (0.8 btc) in case we were back in a bull market, and decided to fomo at 11k (0.5 btc).
...
There might be a ponzi cycle. Bitconnect was associated with the 2017 high, and PlusToken with the 2019 one. Previously we had Bitcoin Savings and Trust which died in August 2012 and wasn't associated with a strong bull market. It's quite possible that there will be another major ponzi every couple years. We need more research into whether they are caused by bull markets or help cause the bull markets.
Search trend doesn't lag price. So much as there is a special dynamic when bitcoin hits its ATH where the trend can go in excess of where it will be when it hits that price a second time in a bear market or in a bull market. For instance, this past 12 months the search trend peaked at the ATH.
no it didn't. the ATH was 100 in december 2017. during the past 12 months, the highest it reached was 20 in june.
after every long term high, search trends follow price down. it's definitely a lagging indicator.
But the comparison point for the search trend now is the two year bear market of 2014-2015 where the search trend was around 3. So we're at approximately 11 (December isn't in yet). This doesn't warrant the price difference of $7000 vs $350. Even if the network effect is x^2 - we should only be at around: 11/3 = 3.66^2 = 13.4. 13.4*350=4700
google trends is just an oscillator. it oscillates between 0 and 100 based on relative data. any point between 0-100 is not indicative of price. there is no such relationship.
The role of plus token.
https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/plustoken-scam-bitcoin-price
In June/July 2015, LTC pumped from $1.30 to $9 at the same time there was a chinese LTC ponzi. It then fell, but achieved a higher floor ($2.50 approx).
https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/plustoken-scam-bitcoin-price
In June/July 2015, LTC pumped from $1.30 to $9 at the same time there was a chinese LTC ponzi. It then fell, but achieved a higher floor ($2.50 approx).
Search trend doesn't lag price. So much as there is a special dynamic when bitcoin hits its ATH where the trend can go in excess of where it will be when it hits that price a second time in a bear market or in a bull market. For instance, this past 12 months the search trend peaked at the ATH.
But the comparison point for the search trend now is the two year bear market of 2014-2015 where the search trend was around 3. So we're at approximately 11 (December isn't in yet). This doesn't warrant the price difference of $7000 vs $350. Even if the network effect is x^2 - we should only be at around: 11/3 = 3.66^2 = 13.4. 13.4*350=4700
Hoping for a bump to $8k so I can sell. Though not sure if I will.
6.9k now. US stock market hit another high.
But the comparison point for the search trend now is the two year bear market of 2014-2015 where the search trend was around 3. So we're at approximately 11 (December isn't in yet). This doesn't warrant the price difference of $7000 vs $350. Even if the network effect is x^2 - we should only be at around: 11/3 = 3.66^2 = 13.4. 13.4*350=4700
Hoping for a bump to $8k so I can sell. Though not sure if I will.
6.9k now. US stock market hit another high.
Bitcoin search trend is looking bad. Worldwide for December we might tie the all-time low since April 2017 (BTC around $1000).
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Bitcoin
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Bitcoin
let's get some perspective on that. bitcoin broke the 2013 ATH in may 2017 and that's when searches for "bitcoin" also reached a new ATH. search trends lag behind price so it's possible the same thing will happen next time around.
Obviously we're a long way to $1000, but if we get a great combination of recession, stock bear market, and a big bust on the halvening
i'll believe it when i see it. stocks are at the ATH, an imminent recession is becoming less likely, and the bitcoin market is 2 for 2 in terms of halvening pumps.
I was watching a couple Hex coin is a scam videos. 1) They shouldn't let Richard Heart speak. He is a great obfuscator. 2) They lose power by getting too detailed.
The only thing you need to know about Hex Coin is
1) There is no use case for it.
If you want more detail
1) No use case. Hex will be worth near zero.
2) An ethereum address, probably controlled by Richard, has special privileges and gets the ETH in exchange for "minting" Hex.
3) (optional) Challenge Richard to an escrowed side bet on the price of Hex (assuming you can find a non-manipulated exchange with decent liquidity)
The rest of the discussion is mostly noise. It probably doesn't matter whether it is a security for most users. And it can take years to prosecute people.
...
Bitcoin search trend is looking bad. Worldwide for December we might tie the all-time low since April 2017 (BTC around $1000).
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Bitcoin
Obviously we're a long way to $1000, but if we get a great combination of recession, stock bear market, and a big bust on the halvening (and maybe Democrats winning 2020 presidency - though that shouldn't have too much of an impact even if longshot Sanders wins)... I'm still thinking we'll bounce at approximately 4.5k as I think we'll establish a new support level above 3k.
The only thing you need to know about Hex Coin is
1) There is no use case for it.
If you want more detail
1) No use case. Hex will be worth near zero.
2) An ethereum address, probably controlled by Richard, has special privileges and gets the ETH in exchange for "minting" Hex.
3) (optional) Challenge Richard to an escrowed side bet on the price of Hex (assuming you can find a non-manipulated exchange with decent liquidity)
The rest of the discussion is mostly noise. It probably doesn't matter whether it is a security for most users. And it can take years to prosecute people.
...
Bitcoin search trend is looking bad. Worldwide for December we might tie the all-time low since April 2017 (BTC around $1000).
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Bitcoin
Obviously we're a long way to $1000, but if we get a great combination of recession, stock bear market, and a big bust on the halvening (and maybe Democrats winning 2020 presidency - though that shouldn't have too much of an impact even if longshot Sanders wins)... I'm still thinking we'll bounce at approximately 4.5k as I think we'll establish a new support level above 3k.
Hex Coin is very similar to a security, and with no use case it is likely to end up scamming people.
it's another bitconnect or plustoken, just more elaborately disguised. this is a pretty good deep dive into how it works. the tl;dr is that the whole system is designed to accrue massive wealth to richard heart. it's more insidious than a traditional ponzi (which would collapse anyway) because he is constantly extracting money from the pot.
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