Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 6. (Read 83024 times)

Still bearish on bitcoin. It's not that it should be highly correlated with the stock market in bear or bull markets as both are unlikely, so much as it shouldn't be increasing when we're going to see a 5%-12% decline in the US GDP and 20% unemployment.

Oil managed to go negative???  A reminder that Bitcoin's floor may not be zero, it might be negative (and there might be no floor at all!).  Of course this is unlikely, but what the heck happenned with oil?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-april-20-2020-222036152.html

You truly believe Bitcoin could, and should follow the stock markets? I guess it follows but up to some extent and when at some point, a majority of direction (be it bulls or bears) gets exhausted here, we see a major correction rate compared to what we've seen in other big names (they've not even recovered) but BTC showed a full >100% recovery and more is expected. My question is, while you were a bear in old days, are you still bearish on BTC during this pandemic period or you're expecting it to shoot higher quickly? May we taste some piece of your secrets?

If the stock markets are going to act uncorrelated with the economy (perhaps stocks are the true safe haven???) expect bitcoin to follow and more shenanigans.

they're using line charts, which only show the closing price, not the extremes. coinbase closed that day at $5637.


most state agencies are reporting these system overloads, which makes it really hard to gauge how bad the situation is. it's gotta be worse than the official numbers, not to mention self-employed folks who are out of work but don't qualify for benefits. JPMorgan predicting 20% unemployment, unreal! https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/jpmorgan-now-sees-economy-contracting-by-40percent-and-unemployment-reaching-20percent.html

Hmm, March 12 they only have Bitcoin going down to approximately $5750 on Coinbase.  How about the real bottom (Coinbase) $3858?

https://www.coindesk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CoindeskQuarterlyReview_Q12020_CoindeskResearch.pdf

You are right about the disconnect. I wonder how long it can be maintained?

Looks like the covid 19 cases are going to peak in the US, and we might be on target for forecast from a week or so ago of 100k-200k US deaths (assuming we don't get a big second wave) instead of the potentially millions that could have happenned if we delayed longer.  For me that is pretty good news.  But the US unemployment numbers of another 6.5 million this week and now 16 million total - on a labor force of 160 million that means a 10% increase in unemployment and we could easily see another 5%-10%+ increase.  Not to mention all the people who have reduced hours.

In Philadelphia we're starting to have small protests with people in cars. If we didn't have social distancing there would be massive social protests in the US that would dwarf the Occupy Wall Street movement.   in Philadelphia we had a hospital shut down that could be reopened and people are also very concerned about the spread of covid 19 in prisons.  And there is a lot of organizing around rent strikes (and more often people just not paying rent). People cannot even apply for unemployment because the phone lines are overloaded (presumably some people are getting it, just hearing that this is hard).

I think it's important to consider that stock markets today are very disconnected from a society's economic health: they don't care about wage stagnation or rising living costs or the fact that average consumers have zero savings. They are propped up by QE, company stock buybacks and now once again, bailouts.

So if the pandemic is not really the end of the world initially feared, then a stock market recovery like 2009 is already being priced in now. If it works out that way, it'll look exactly like the 1987 crash.

The situation is still unpredictable though. There could be another bad news cycle waiting in the wings. The markets are in relief rallying mode now, but even if the bottom is in already, we should get a significant dip eventually. The anticipated second wave of infections in the fall could provide the motivation for that dip.

Or I might have been totally wrong (again).  Bitcoin 7300.  Stock market bouncing nicely.  Coronavirus growth rate in the US (and most other early infected countries like Europe, Canada, etc) is flattening (though 5%/day is still a lot!).

Psychologically the impact of a pandemic is an unknown factor.  So we might all be ready to live through another recession (though we don't know the impact on bitcoin).  And we've seen regular financial crises since perhaps the 1800s.  But I haven't even see any good articles on comparing this with the 1918 flu, perhaps because with globalization and accessible airline travel - it's a different world. Or maybe it's such a different virus.

Unprepared for this, we're likely to make massive mistakes in bullish/bearish directions.

That said, short-term vs long term trends. I'm sticking with my position that we'll probably see 3k-5k in the next 8 months.

And fortunately I didn't short the stock market (thanks to my investment broker/service for a bad UI that hides how I can request options trading and for not responding to my support ticket).

I'm pretty sure we already entered that bad news cycle a couple days ago. Higher death counts expected, May as the earliest for US back to work expectations, a second wave of infections in China and South Korea. Unemployment numbers are expected to get worse too. So I'm not surprised the stimulus bill novelty wore off and the SPX is back down a couple hundred points.

The dead cat bounce lines up perfectly with the 1987 crash (and strong recovery) model. I'm really curious to see if stocks fail to make new lows.


They are expecting the daily death toll to hit zero in July. I assume governments will be better prepared for the next wave in fall or winter. The worst market expectations are probably getting priced in now.

I'm thinking of buying Puts on the SPY (SP 500 ETF) to short it.  Any advice on this (perhaps more tutorials and general options trading, not specific advice)?  I'm thinking I mostly want to have fun (risk small amounts).  I am predicting that we'll have a second wave of bad economic and virus news in the next 2-4 weeks. So I guess I pick a time frame (which I have) and pick a target (2200 or less, new yearly low). And then got a bit conservative in case we don't hit the target.  Or maybe get a selection of options.

With the mainstream forecast at 100k-200k deaths in the US (this means 2 million - 10 million cases depending on the death rate), and the government moving quickly from "15 days to slow the spread" to it now looks like hard core social distancing until the end of May - I really don't understand people who think we'll not have a massive productivity shock even if everyone keeps their jobs.  Working from home just isn't the same.  And this shock could last two years or more (while we wait for vaccine).  What will everyone be thinking in around 6 weeks, after mask production is ramped up, when most people walking around outside (or at work) are wearing N95 masks?

There are still about 20% of the US population that isn't living under stay at home orders.  Also my neighbors are doing ok, but not great with it.

So nrd525 is officially a nocoiner now?

Interesting times. The stimulus package is expected to pass anytime now, which is causing stocks to rally. The S&P 500 is up 12.5%. The chart is still all lower highs, clearly still in a downtrend, but is now threatening a relief rally.

Some BTC whale is anticipating it. They accumulated the sub-$6K area hard. You can tell by the volume profile and market buying activity. They have been switching on market buy bots anytime bullish Fed news drops. Assuming the market hasn't crashed yet, they will probably do the same when the stimulus package gets passed.

I'm curious to see what happens. BTCUSD is pressed up against the 20-day MA and bullish momentum is fading out. BTC shorts have also collapsed, meaning not much buy pressure left from squeezed bears. My gut is leaning bearish but there is obviously breakout potential here, hovering so close to the $7K high.

Economic/Fed news is the wild card. I expect bad unemployment numbers on Friday, but a lot can happen between now and then.

Sold 0.5 btc at around 6700 (blockfi, high fee/lower rate).  So I've got practically 0 btc.

Sold 1 BTC at 5888 (blockfi, so bad exchange rates maybe a 0.8% fee?).  Only have 0.5 BTC left. I'm almost entirely cash and some Blockfi lending at 8.6% APR.  If you look at the past 20-30 years, a 8.6% return beats the stock market a lot of the time (hmm, or is this because I ignore dividends?).

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

Yes, if Europe and the US go full Italy on us, and effective treatments and vaccines are delayed, the optimistic scenario begins to evaporate.

It's worth pointing out though because a swift recovery in China is so crucial to any hope for a swift global recovery. At least the prospects for a "return to normal" in China are decent now. It's the West who is now the epicenter of this crisis.

These models are probably assuming that the virus passes. If we spend two years developing a vaccine and have to do social distancing for two years, I'm not sure how well most of the economy will hold up. 

The estimates are all over the place. The magnitude of the global slowdown is huge and in some ways unprecedented but at the same time, the extremely swift recovery in China is leading to expectations of a V-shaped dip in GDP growth: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/coronavirus-recession-worst-wwii-economic-recovery-global-deutsche-bank-2020-3-1029012757


That could make for some epic volatility in stocks! It might also stave off a 2008-style decline, but who knows? It will be interesting to see how the market prices in the corona virus recovery (or lack thereof) in the coming months.

So long as the virus spread is mostly done from people being too close to each other, we'll probably be ok in the US (and with an estimated  R0 spread factor of 2.5 this might be true - https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/lab-report/how-quickly-does-coronavirus-spread).

 But if surfaces are an issue, we might be screwed. Have you seen the measures China took?  I was watching a video of a reporter not in Wuhan, in Beijing.  They had a fence put up around their compound that kept getting higher, almost nobody and no vehicles on the street and when they ventured outside were repeatedly stopped and had their temperature checked (infrared thermometers I think). By contrast my neighors are all walking around as it is 75 degrees today in Philly.

I'm thinking we'll have max panic when 80%+ of the US is under a stay at home order and we have 100k+ cases.  Currently we're at 20%.  So maybe in 5-14 days (it'd be faster if we had more tests).


Goldman Sachs came out with a 3.1-3.8% GDP decline in 2020, and peak unemployment of 9%.   By contrast, JP Morgan's estimate from 1-2 days ago was about half of that.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-gdp-drop


In the US: 2% lost their job, 9% "laid off" (presumably they might get their jobs back after the crisis), 26% hours reduced.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx…

That's quite a range! So many unknowns right now, but I still maintain these couple weeks right here are the peak of hysteria. Just look at the path things took in China. A week or two from now, panic will have subsided and things will normalize. At that point, people will have gotten used to the idea that the disease is spreading and will continue to, but there will be light at the end of the tunnel.


If bulls can push this rally to the upper $6K or lower $7K range, the stage is set for a confirmation of the 200-week MA zone as a higher low support. This would support my bullish triangle case which says $3,850 was the bottom. If I am correct, a run to the low $5K or upper $4K range would still be possible.

6.3k (nice bounce continues). But we're probably at 100k Coronavirus cases in the US, rather than the 13k reported due to a lack of testing. Might peak in the 100k-2 million range in the US.

This was 5 days ago:
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487562-johns-hopkins-professor-estimates-at-least-50000-people-have-coronavirus-in

Placing bids from 3120 to 5120. 

Thinking about buying the SP500 once we're down by 40% or more.

Fast Us government fiscal and monetary response to the recession is helping. But we're still very low on tests, respirators, masks and other protective gear. I'm also unsure that the US public is ready to self quarantine.  I'm guessing we'll have a second round of panic when the tests show the real number of virus cases in the US.

Whether or not we'll see a third round of panic, if we fail to contain the virus, is questionable. I'm really hoping that doesn't happen!

Nice call on the global economic cycle, and the $5K BTC prediction. Credit where credit is due. I underestimated the corona virus panic for sure, as well as the possibility for a margin cascade on BTC.

I can't tell if this is a real V-bottom yet. If it is, this long term triangle still seems possible: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54020305