I'm a bit worried that competition might lead to unnecessary risks in this very new (new in that it looks legitimate and is at least organizationally independent of the highly variable rates offered by exchanges) industry of crypto lending. But I'm also hopeful that we'll have some market leaders who figure out how to do this safely.
https://interest.coinmarketcap.com
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 10. (Read 82714 times)
Unsure if Google can get decent search traffic from China, but this search trend for "blockchain" is basically flat after the Chinese president mentions it. Also pretty flat globally and on the one day.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=CN&q=blockchain
A major chinese official will probably say something bad about the blockchain or bitcoin within the next week.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=CN&q=blockchain
A major chinese official will probably say something bad about the blockchain or bitcoin within the next week.
This is very scandalous. And even if you buy Bitfinex's story, they were "conned". What does that say about their leadership / team?
https://www.coindesk.com/polish-police-arrest-head-of-payment-processor-tied-to-bitfinex-crypto-exchange
https://www.coindesk.com/polish-police-arrest-head-of-payment-processor-tied-to-bitfinex-crypto-exchange
it either says they don't perform due diligence or they're cool with getting in bed with criminals out of desperation. considering how they approach banking, my bet is on the second one.
more reputable exchanges like kraken ditched crypto capital years ago---obviously for good reason.
This is very scandalous. And even if you buy Bitfinex's story, they were "conned". What does that say about their leadership / team?
https://www.coindesk.com/polish-police-arrest-head-of-payment-processor-tied-to-bitfinex-crypto-exchange
https://www.coindesk.com/polish-police-arrest-head-of-payment-processor-tied-to-bitfinex-crypto-exchange
What can we learn from this? They've got some of the alt-coins like XRP and ETH as under-valued!
https://www.coinfairvalue.com/
https://www.coinfairvalue.com/
It all depends what value you place on their methodology:
Quote
Fair values displayed in CoinFairValue do not cointain speculation and have been calculated with the following assumptions:
- According to CFV theory, the velocity of money is driven by the individual's willingness to trade their savings for goods or services, which is believed to change over time. To account for this variable we are using a 1 year MA (Moving Average), filtering 2-sigma outliers. We are considering total discounted savings and not the current savings. The daily velocity of a currency based on total discounted savings is computed dividing the daily amounts transacted by the total discounted supply of the currency. If the investor wished to use a velocity based on current savings, they would just need to divide daily amounts transacted by the current supply instead. Be careful in the cases where a slow velocity of money is a consequence of a token issuer or company holding the majority of the currency supply. In these cases, one single person can change the overall velocity of the currency in an unpredictable instant.
- We are assuming that when currencies settle on their niches, their baskets shift ratio will move slowly enough. Based on that assumption, we are using a 1 year MA (Moving Average) on their basket average value, filtering 2-sigma outliers. Keep in mind that small currencies can be subjected to large temporary changes in their baskets average value.
- Transactions per day is the variable that has been observed to best correlate with the price movements. It order track the user base in a short-term basis, we have decided to just filter the noise of the transactions per day. We are using an EMA, filtering 2-sigma outliers as a smoothing function. The parameters of the EMA are selected per coin, in such a way that the bias is minimized and the noise is reduced to a minimum.
If the transaction volume rises or money velocity falls, the "fair value" increases. They also use these metrics in their calculation called "basket shift ratio" and "discounted supply" and I can't figure out what they mean. Like, why is Bitcoin's discounted supply 20.1 million BTC?
I'm skeptical. I also disagree with the fundamental idea that "fair value" is worth pursuing. Speculation is an integral part of price discovery. What I care about is price, not what is "fair" based on a bunch of weird guesses and opaque metrics.
What can we learn from this? They've got some of the alt-coins like XRP and ETH as under-valued!
https://www.coinfairvalue.com/
https://www.coinfairvalue.com/
Your argument is strong =)
Search trends: blockchain is holding up better than bitcoin. So this is bullish. Though blockchain is far behind bitcoin in searches. We need to see some use cases for the blockchain, otherwise that might die a slow death.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=blockchain
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin
As we crash through the 7700 floor and hit a new local low of 7300, currently 7500, I've still got bids from 3000 to 6000.
...
If you are in the US and think Clinton isn't running for president, you can make some relatively low-risk money on PredictIt.org where the odds of her running for the Democratic presidential nomination are 15%-20% (I'd estimate 0.1% to 1%). Maximum bet is $850. 5% withdrawal fee, and 10% fee on any profit. So maybe a 10% return. Might take up to a year to get resolved, but hopefully would resolve at least by the 2020 DNC.
There are some weird spikes on PredictIt. For instance in the recent Canadian election market, the Green Party went to 20 cents (for prime minister) and the People's Party (which won zero seats and 1.5% of the vote) went up to 50 cents!
There are more shenanigans going on with the US election markets, where Yang is very overpriced.
Search trends: blockchain is holding up better than bitcoin. So this is bullish. Though blockchain is far behind bitcoin in searches. We need to see some use cases for the blockchain, otherwise that might die a slow death.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=blockchain
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin
As we crash through the 7700 floor and hit a new local low of 7300, currently 7500, I've still got bids from 3000 to 6000.
...
If you are in the US and think Clinton isn't running for president, you can make some relatively low-risk money on PredictIt.org where the odds of her running for the Democratic presidential nomination are 15%-20% (I'd estimate 0.1% to 1%). Maximum bet is $850. 5% withdrawal fee, and 10% fee on any profit. So maybe a 10% return. Might take up to a year to get resolved, but hopefully would resolve at least by the 2020 DNC.
There are some weird spikes on PredictIt. For instance in the recent Canadian election market, the Green Party went to 20 cents (for prime minister) and the People's Party (which won zero seats and 1.5% of the vote) went up to 50 cents!
There are more shenanigans going on with the US election markets, where Yang is very overpriced.
This is a very interesting claim. It probably was due to multiple causes. The larger the bubble, the easier it is to pop it (or on second thought, maybe this isn't true as people who would short it get wrecked and you can run out of people who are feel they know enough to try to short?). At least the larger the bubble the more likely it is to pop, as you have increased incentive to do so (and there are some rational people who take profit).
https://www.coindesk.com/trump-administration-popped-2017-bitcoin-bubble-ex-cftc-chair-says
https://www.coindesk.com/trump-administration-popped-2017-bitcoin-bubble-ex-cftc-chair-says
as far as "buy the rumor and sell the news" goes, i'm sure the effect was significant. bubbles are built on hype---futures hype was a major part of 2017. CBOE announced their plan to list bitcoin futures in early august 2017, shortly before BTC/USD went parabolic.
once the CME market went live in december, there was nothing left to hype. the path of least resistance was down. did it pop the bubble? maybe, but if it wasn't the launch of futures, it would have been something else. blow-off tops don't typically last very long.
i disagree with giancarlo's suggestion that shorters in these cash-settled derivatives pushed the market down though. it was more about bubble psychology.
This is a very interesting claim. It probably was due to multiple causes. The larger the bubble, the easier it is to pop it (or on second thought, maybe this isn't true as people who would short it get wrecked and you can run out of people who are feel they know enough to try to short?). At least the larger the bubble the more likely it is to pop, as you have increased incentive to do so (and there are some rational people who take profit).
https://www.coindesk.com/trump-administration-popped-2017-bitcoin-bubble-ex-cftc-chair-says
https://www.coindesk.com/trump-administration-popped-2017-bitcoin-bubble-ex-cftc-chair-says
SIM card swapping fraud is a problem. Don't rely upon your phone number to secure anything. Use Google Authenticator or other more secure 2FA methods.
https://www.coindesk.com/michael-terpin-urges-fcc-to-curb-crypto-fraud-that-cost-him-24-million
https://www.coindesk.com/michael-terpin-urges-fcc-to-curb-crypto-fraud-that-cost-him-24-million
It's Digital Gold for Gamblers!
https://www.coindesk.com/thrill-seeking-drives-investors-to-trade-crypto-study-finds
https://www.coindesk.com/thrill-seeking-drives-investors-to-trade-crypto-study-finds
i'm not surprised. i can hardly stomach stocks and forex trading because they are so bloody boring, and bitcoin was the first asset i ever traded. i guess we have real live proof now that us crypto traders are after the roller coaster more than anything else!
It's Digital Gold for Gamblers!
https://www.coindesk.com/thrill-seeking-drives-investors-to-trade-crypto-study-finds
https://www.coindesk.com/thrill-seeking-drives-investors-to-trade-crypto-study-finds
Ooh. Trump appointees at work!
I lean towards this being my favorite indicator for bitcoin. And it's currently looking like we might bottom around $4300 (so perhaps 3100 - 5500).
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=bitcoin
There is a case for institutional money replacing some of the retail money (so then search trend is less important), but the institutional money probably isn't stupid enough to believe that bitcoin is always going to have another 10x-100x bull cycle. I think the retail hardcore bitcoin enthusiasts are the base and the type of people to hold if we go down to $1000.
I lean towards this being my favorite indicator for bitcoin. And it's currently looking like we might bottom around $4300 (so perhaps 3100 - 5500).
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=bitcoin
There is a case for institutional money replacing some of the retail money (so then search trend is less important), but the institutional money probably isn't stupid enough to believe that bitcoin is always going to have another 10x-100x bull cycle. I think the retail hardcore bitcoin enthusiasts are the base and the type of people to hold if we go down to $1000.
Now they need to start fining and jailing people.
https://www.coindesk.com/sec-halts-telegrams-1-7-billion-unlawful-token-issuance
https://www.coindesk.com/sec-halts-telegrams-1-7-billion-unlawful-token-issuance
the bigger story is further down in the article. the SEC just settled with the creators of EOS, who raised $4.1 billion in an ICO. they got a slap on the wrist---only $24 million in fines and no requirement to register with the SEC.
it sure doesn't sound like anyone's going to jail for this stuff.
Now they need to start fining and jailing people.
https://www.coindesk.com/sec-halts-telegrams-1-7-billion-unlawful-token-issuance
https://www.coindesk.com/sec-halts-telegrams-1-7-billion-unlawful-token-issuance
Was the near 14k top really correlated with the collapse of the Chinese token crypto ponzi? Richard Heart is a crazy guy, but sometimes insightful and a great alternative to groupthink.
https://offthechain.substack.com/p/2-billion-ponzi-scheme-uncovered
Vanatu (tiny island) arrests on June 27, China arrests on July 1. Topped on June 25.
https://offthechain.substack.com/p/2-billion-ponzi-scheme-uncovered
https://offthechain.substack.com/p/2-billion-ponzi-scheme-uncovered
Vanatu (tiny island) arrests on June 27, China arrests on July 1. Topped on June 25.
https://offthechain.substack.com/p/2-billion-ponzi-scheme-uncovered
Quote
Not sure how anyone can read this report and not think we'd see at least a 10% decline within 24 hours
Sounds like the power of a rumour vs news, there isnt enough to move the market from what its already speculating within the price and if they get exactly what they expected then likely we reverse from then on; a relief rally maybe. I'd be surprised if they shut down the exchange for being fraudulent which is the correct magnitude of action for a shock, some minor rebuke is more like it. I guess the market could be surprised so we'd get proper movement but another negative report wasnt enough. Maybe we already fell because of that and now its rebounding.
I was considering a short but honestly it doesnt seem likely to react in that way, friday tomorrow then weekend and I think its better to wait till Monday to speculate a negative. I dont want to watch it especially till then and it seems like we can drift upwards even if its just to fall later and my observation is that the weekend is a perfect fit for that behaviour.
Oops I meant LIFO =)
From Bitcoin Taxes (bitcoin.tax domain?). The IRS has confirmed you can use FIFO and more importantly Lots for your accounting method to figure your basis. This is great as I went with using Lots which I think is ideal given bitcoin's tendancy to go up AND down. FIFO is great for an appreciating asset, but bitcoin has these 85% plunges. It is a total nightmare to track, but if you limit the number of your trades and spends - then it is doable.
I've always used specific lot identification. That's what my accountants have always recommended for crypto. FIFO seems like an absolute nightmare for tax optimization like long term gains rates.
From Bitcoin Taxes (bitcoin.tax domain?). The IRS has confirmed you can use FIFO and more importantly Lots for your accounting method to figure your basis. This is great as I went with using Lots which I think is ideal given bitcoin's tendancy to go up AND down. LIFO (edited, previously I mistakenly wrote FIFO) is great for an appreciating asset, but bitcoin has these 85% plunges. It is a total nightmare to track, but if you limit the number of your trades and spends - then it is doable.
The tax strategy I like to use is if I'm spending bitcoin, buy them first (in the exact amount needed) and then spend them as quickly as possible. So with using Lots you can have effectively zero capital gains on it for small purchases or very near zero for larger ones.
They also ruled that hard forks are treated as income. I guess that correctly as well! The alternative of viewing it as stock split was just too messy as you wouldn't have a good way of dividing the basis. Notably with some of the weirder forks, like bitcoin diamond, they were traded on exchanges where you couldn't deposit them at 10x the real market price. So even using the market price of the two sides of a fork to determine the basis would have been messy as you didn't know the market price for the lesser coin often, and you'd have to pick a day and time (or average period) to get the market prices for.
[NEW] FIFO and Specific Identification
Up till now, most accountants have recommended only using FIFO, as it is the default IRS cost basis method. However, the IRS has now confirmed that specific identification can be used. This is extremely significant, as you could select from your "lots" of owned crypto and choose the ones with the best tax outcome. You could, for instance, reduce the current year short-term tax liability and push it into the following year to take advantage of reduced long-term capital gains rates.
Bitcoin.Tax has offered specific identification methods since we started in 2014, and allows you to pick from a variety of strategies, such as last-In last-out, lowest-cost and closest-cost, to minimize tax liabilities.
The tax strategy I like to use is if I'm spending bitcoin, buy them first (in the exact amount needed) and then spend them as quickly as possible. So with using Lots you can have effectively zero capital gains on it for small purchases or very near zero for larger ones.
They also ruled that hard forks are treated as income. I guess that correctly as well! The alternative of viewing it as stock split was just too messy as you wouldn't have a good way of dividing the basis. Notably with some of the weirder forks, like bitcoin diamond, they were traded on exchanges where you couldn't deposit them at 10x the real market price. So even using the market price of the two sides of a fork to determine the basis would have been messy as you didn't know the market price for the lesser coin often, and you'd have to pick a day and time (or average period) to get the market prices for.
[NEW] FIFO and Specific Identification
Up till now, most accountants have recommended only using FIFO, as it is the default IRS cost basis method. However, the IRS has now confirmed that specific identification can be used. This is extremely significant, as you could select from your "lots" of owned crypto and choose the ones with the best tax outcome. You could, for instance, reduce the current year short-term tax liability and push it into the following year to take advantage of reduced long-term capital gains rates.
Bitcoin.Tax has offered specific identification methods since we started in 2014, and allows you to pick from a variety of strategies, such as last-In last-out, lowest-cost and closest-cost, to minimize tax liabilities.
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