Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 3. (Read 82714 times)

Just up a casual 340% against BTC. Nothing to see here!

Too bad I wasn't actually holding much, as much as I always like to hype up DOGE. Honestly, when I said the move to 40 sats was the first leg up, I didn't expect the next leg to be nearly this big.

Hey r/wallstreetsbets, can you pump some of my other bags please?!

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/01/wallstreetsbets-craze-pushes-dogecoin-up-5x-in-24-hours/

How about that 200% Doge pump in the past 24 hours?

If you've got strong hands, DOGE is usually a good investment. Just remember to sell for BTC during the pump!

I'm afraid to say with any real confidence, but looking across various ALT/BTC charts, we might be on the cusp of an altcoin season similar to March-May 2017. The pump to 40 satoshis may have just been the first leg up, like the pump to 60 satoshis in April 2017.

If meme investing in stocks becomes a real thing (so far Gamestop and who else?), Dogecoin might be a good investment =)  Though it has already pumped once this year.

(I'm completely out of Doge and don't plan to get back in).

It's interesting that Crypto Mitch on YouTube is probably making 100k/month on Patreon (unless he is faking the numbers/giving discounts).  And that isn't including all the superchat donations. 

How much are the other analysts making from not trading?

Bought another 0.2 btc at around 31k.

A pro futures trader taught me that after a large breakout you should use the breakout point for the anchor of the fib retracement.



If it says above the 61,8% $28,324 then the 23.6% extension at $47,179 is the next upside target. If that fails (goes below the 61.8%) then look for the next retrace using the low of the last cycle.

Masterluc thinks so:



He was right about the bounce to the 20-day MA. Now let's see if he's right about the dump to $20K!

My other favorite analyst is feeling bearish too:


He's looking for a dump to the 20-week MA, currently at $20,500 and rising. Scary times!

Ok so hard to break that 420 (00) resistance! 

I bought 0.7 BTC at around $31500.  Now let's see if it dumps to 20k...

We bounced of 33333 on Coinbase Pro =)

Next resistance is 44444 (plus or minus 4).

I don't remember $444 at all, but I do remember bouncing off $666 a lot in 2015. That was right around the May 2015 bull trap top, so it was pretty significant S/R for quite a while.

I wouldn't bank too much on theories like this. In a bubble atmosphere, there are no reliable resistances at all. Not even $20K offered much. It's much more reliable to speculate on where support lies during dips.


Always the same story. Institutions accumulate low, price gets marked up, retail buys high.

Doesn't mean the market can't go higher though. It will.

Is there any research into repeating digits in the bitcoin price and significant levels?  Coinbase Pro just bounced off 33300 (and Bitfinex was 4 dollars short).  I was thinking about 33333 as possible resistance a week or so ago.

I think I remember 444 being significant, and maybe also 666.

Apparently it's institutional money that started this rally, as search trends and retail hype are lower than in 2017.  Though I'd expect that retail is kicking in as we soared past 30k with only about 1-2 minutes of resistance.

given where the 2013 and 2017 bubbles ended, you're not the first to propose this theory.

in fact, this is probably why bitcoin rocketed higher all through december---too many people sold expecting a december selloff. now they keep panic buying back in.

there is probably something to the june/december thing. june is typically fiscal year end, the start of summer, "sell in may and go away". december = holiday lull times, plus it's typically tax selling season. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tax_selling.asp

i wouldn't consider it a major factor. as we saw this year, when bull markets are really powerful, nothing can stop them.

Are financial bubbles more likely to peak in December?  Nikkei 225 peaked on Dec 29, 1989.

2018 Bitcoin bubble Dec
2013 Bitcoin bubble Dec
2011 Bitcoin bubble June

2000 communications/tech bubble peaked March 1(ish)

Tulip Bubble peaked Feb 1637

I'm skeptical of almost all defi except the slightly more centralized ones.  I kind of like Celsius (though am skeptical about the token) and Blockfi.  I haven't done much research.  It is mostly useful for things like Uniswap to provide liquidity for what would otherwise be low-liquidity tokens?  Is it useful because people are too lazy to place orders on order books?   I like order books as you can generally get a much better price and pay very low fees.  So just like I've not ever tried to buy bitcoin using a credit card (because the fees are 5%-10%), up until now (when I can get a 10% return within a month betting on the election), I've ignored defi.

That said, I'm going to do some test liquidity providing on polymarket to see if that is profitable.  It seems like you want to provide liquidity where the volume / available liquidity ratio is high and where the volatility is low.   For instance, the "Will Trump be elected president" markets are relatively stable - with Trump probably still in a slow decline (as he's alreadly lost the election).  Providing liquidity for some of the betting markets that have quick binary outcomes would be very dangerous (Ex. will bitcoin hit 25k by March 1, 2021).  The day or two before the election I was making 1%+ APR/day on liquidity providing (and the price of the outcome didn't move as the election polls were very stable).

I suppose Uniswap might also be profitable?  Is the mix of stable vs unstable currencies enough to make it relatively stable, or can all the cryptos go up against the USD and you'll get seriously screwed?

Impermanent loss = Permanent Loss.  Especially if you are doing liquidity providing on polymarket in a market with a binary outcome (they occasionally have scalar outcomes).  It's very misleading to claim otherwise!  If my bitcoins fell to $0.01, I'd say I lost x$, not that I was at the risk of losing it if I cashed out or some other silly conditions.

it should be simple to write a script that parses news or twitter feeds for mentions of bitcoin.

anecdotally, media coverage and hype can't be that low. i've had 4 friends and family members call or text me asking about bitcoin and how to buy it recently. retail FOMO is picking up.

you follow defi stuff right? any promising projects you're focused on?

26.5k!
The slope of the bull market (log scale) is less steep than the run up in 2017 from $1000 to $2800.  Level of hype and mainstream media coverage is relatively low. Hmm, what is a good way of measuring media coverage?  Is there any way to search for mentions of "bitcoin" in say the New York Times?

It kind of looks like we could hit 100k-200k in 2021. Which is crazy.

...

On Dec 22, some crazy person bet 0.2 BTC at 50% odds on Trump being president on March 1, 2020.  They intentionally created this market so they could do the bet.  And then managed to pay about 5 times the market price for their bet.  This is pretty much the stupidest bet I've ever seen.  Even if you think Trump is going to win, you could get the bet at 10% odds (or lower if you are willing to do a little work).
https://fairlay.com/market/president-of-the-us-on-march-1st-2020/?referral=011cd9eb-20b0-4de0-a519-ecf70a6a8cc0

Unfortunately Fairlay doesn't let you sell out of your bet positions. So you have to hold until resolution.

...

Augur is having its first US presidential market In Reporting.  So far it was initially staked as Biden, briefly as invalid, and then now with 32 Rep it is staked for Biden.  This is very little money ($400) compared to the volume of the market (50k?). I find it a bit concerning that the Rep token holders aren't smart enough to do Early Large stakes on the correct side of the questions.  Early Large stakes would increase trader confidence in Augur and deter attackers.  It's going to be easy to compete against Augur if they take weeks to resolve markets.  There is 4 days left to Dispute the current tentative winner.  So it will be fascinating to see if anyone does that.

https://bafybeiebluevb7w6qmwp5vnhwgzloyxg44vqbuzfoq4wcqyomco6oslxu4.ipfs.dweb.link/#!/markets

I've come up with a very strange scenario where it is actually profitable to fork Augur.  Trump supporters would put a ton of money into buying Rep tokens (and quite possibly many of them already own a lot of Rep).  This would boost the price of Rep.  They would also boost the price of the yTrump Rep fork using futures.  They would feel like they have 1) proven with an unbiased method that Trump won the election and 2) actually be in profit as their forked coin would be worth more than nTrump Rep.

This is similar to how ponzis and pump-and-dumps work. 

Trump punters have already thrown away potentially millions of dollars betting on Trump AFTER the election results were 99.9% finalized (and donors have donated millions to the Trump campaign after he lost).  Crypto users also have a history of spending hundreds of millions (or more?) on ponzis and scams (see HEX).  We saw the power of hype and marketing in Bitcoin Cash's early success.  It increased in value early on (hit 40%? of BTC price?).  It is only three years later that is has died down to a relatively insignificant altcoin.

Under this scenario, with a succesfull attack, punters like me would stay far away from Augur.  We wouldn't trust the yTrump side of it because the attack could be repeated.  yTrump token would fall by a lot.  nTrump would maintain a level of hype and take longer to fall in value.

The problem is that Augur relies upon people being rational, and the security is based on people trading on the rational side of a fork (and that side being valued more, and the other side losing their money).  This assumption might be false.

I don't think this scenario is likely, but it an interesting disturbing possibility.

Very suprised that the price has kind of stabilized in the 18k-19k range.

Also did research into buying crypto with a credit card in the US.  I was liking mercuryo.io with the lowest fee (4%), but they didn't like my ID.

It's interesting that some places claim to only have a 5% fee, but they tack on another 2%-3% on to the exchange price.

Fortunately I bought that 1 btc at around 10k, and then even more fortunately that I bet it on Biden winning and doubled it.  Nobody should be surprised if we crash to 13k or go to 30k (or do both) in the next month.

It's interesting that the ATH is providing some resistance.  I guess we had to have resistance at some point. I think we'll eventually blow through it.  Right now the price is hanging out at 19400, just a couple hundred dollars shy of the ATH.  On some exchanges (maybe 1/4?) we've already broken it, though not on Bitfinex or Coinbase.

I'm working on not being so bearish =)