Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 9. (Read 82714 times)
Hex Coin is very similar to a security, and with no use case it is likely to end up scamming people.
Learned that Blockfi has a withdrawal fee of 0.0025 BTC, after your first monthly free withdrawal. They say it comes from the custodial service. Also withdrawals might take a day or so. This is unfortunate as I like to break up transactions to reduce my risk.
Celsius Networks says automatic withdrawals without fees. Their weird token just went from 3.5 cents to 13 cents (peak) and then back to 8 cents in the past two weeks, perhaps after the CEO did a livestream (Ask Me Anything). Hmm.
Celsius Networks says automatic withdrawals without fees. Their weird token just went from 3.5 cents to 13 cents (peak) and then back to 8 cents in the past two weeks, perhaps after the CEO did a livestream (Ask Me Anything). Hmm.
What is the best exchange for US residents (small traders) with lower fees and a decent reputation? I'm looking at Coinbase Pro and they increased their maker and taker fees to 0.5% (so a total of 1%).
Gemini's ActiveTrader program looks like it is 0.8% (what is an "auction fee"?). Kraken looks the best at 0.42% total -- 0.16% Maker and 0.26% Taker.
Gemini's ActiveTrader program looks like it is 0.8% (what is an "auction fee"?). Kraken looks the best at 0.42% total -- 0.16% Maker and 0.26% Taker.
Binance.us has the best fees I've found: 0.1%, no maker/taker distinction. The problem is that liquidity is still pretty bad. https://www.binance.us/en/fee/schedule
Auctions on Gemini are different from regular maker/taker exchanges. Gemini's ActiveTrader fees are just 0.35% taker and 0.25% maker, so definitely cheaper than Coinbase Pro.
I've been mulling over trying out Kraken for years. Now that Coinbase jacked their fees up, it's looking more and more likely that I'll try them out. Liquidity doesn't look half bad. It seems like the obvious choice over Gemini.
Fun 3 part BBC reality series on trading.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXno18pOHgo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXno18pOHgo
What is the best exchange for US residents (small traders) with lower fees and a decent reputation? I'm looking at Coinbase Pro and they increased their maker and taker fees to 0.5% (so a total of 1%).
Gemini's ActiveTrader program looks like it is 0.8% (what is an "auction fee"?). Kraken looks the best at 0.42% total -- 0.16% Maker and 0.26% Taker.
The exchanges are presumably making super-profits, so why competition doesn't work at driving down fees to reasonable amounts is another case of the failures of capitalism.
Gemini's ActiveTrader program looks like it is 0.8% (what is an "auction fee"?). Kraken looks the best at 0.42% total -- 0.16% Maker and 0.26% Taker.
The exchanges are presumably making super-profits, so why competition doesn't work at driving down fees to reasonable amounts is another case of the failures of capitalism.
For the IRS/US, it looks like wash sales are still allowed in bitcoin (and other digital currencies). So you can sell your bitcoins, get the capital loss, and rebuy the same day or even hour (or even next minute - though I'd suggest maybe waiting at least 1 minute).
I've read some concern that they'd change this rule. But would they do it retroactively?
I'm planning on using my unrealized capital losses to wipe out my short term capital gains (and maybe also some of my long term gains).
I've read some concern that they'd change this rule. But would they do it retroactively?
I'm planning on using my unrealized capital losses to wipe out my short term capital gains (and maybe also some of my long term gains).
SP500 continues to set new records. Meanwhile bitcoins are dumping (6800 low, currently 7100). Guess who is bearish? Me!
Feeling bad about all those bitcoins I bought from $8000 to $11,000.
In weird US political news, I'm obsessed with PredictIt.org (and if you are a alt-righter who doesn't believe in polling and has too much money - please join today!) and Bloomberg is at a 11% chance of getting the Democratic nomination while polling at 1%-2%, Clinton (who hasn't declared) is at 6%, and Yang is at 6% (polling around 3%).
Of course if you want more money, you could try betting against these people. And notably betting against Clinton running. People are giving Clinton a 15%+ chance of running. I think it is closer to 1%. (Unfortunately you can only bet $850 on this, so I've maxxed No). I'm up around $350 of "free money" by betting No on every single candidate for the Democratic presidental nomination. They kept on adding candidates and I kept on betting No until I got my initial investment returned ($850) and now an extra $350.
PredictIt has some very strange things happening due to the $850 bet limit on each market and the 5% withdrawal fee. There is long shot bias as the people who take a 10 cent bet have 9 times the leverage of people taking the other side with 90 cents. And there is sometimes a good return on bets that will take a long time to expire (say a 10%+ APR) due to the 5% withdrawal fee reducing liquidity.
So far PredictIt is a lot more successful than Augur. It'll be interesting if Augur ever matches it. PredictIt is currently the best political gambling website in the world (outside of betting on UK politics). Betfair has only a fraction of the liquidity and markets, especially for non-UK politics.
Feeling bad about all those bitcoins I bought from $8000 to $11,000.
In weird US political news, I'm obsessed with PredictIt.org (and if you are a alt-righter who doesn't believe in polling and has too much money - please join today!) and Bloomberg is at a 11% chance of getting the Democratic nomination while polling at 1%-2%, Clinton (who hasn't declared) is at 6%, and Yang is at 6% (polling around 3%).
Of course if you want more money, you could try betting against these people. And notably betting against Clinton running. People are giving Clinton a 15%+ chance of running. I think it is closer to 1%. (Unfortunately you can only bet $850 on this, so I've maxxed No). I'm up around $350 of "free money" by betting No on every single candidate for the Democratic presidental nomination. They kept on adding candidates and I kept on betting No until I got my initial investment returned ($850) and now an extra $350.
PredictIt has some very strange things happening due to the $850 bet limit on each market and the 5% withdrawal fee. There is long shot bias as the people who take a 10 cent bet have 9 times the leverage of people taking the other side with 90 cents. And there is sometimes a good return on bets that will take a long time to expire (say a 10%+ APR) due to the 5% withdrawal fee reducing liquidity.
So far PredictIt is a lot more successful than Augur. It'll be interesting if Augur ever matches it. PredictIt is currently the best political gambling website in the world (outside of betting on UK politics). Betfair has only a fraction of the liquidity and markets, especially for non-UK politics.
And the China ban is back on =) Or they probably want to do some blockchain stuff while staying away for speculation and ICOs.
https://www.coindesk.com/china-is-poised-for-another-crypto-trading-crackdown-as-speculation-returns
https://www.coindesk.com/china-is-poised-for-another-crypto-trading-crackdown-as-speculation-returns
that's not surprising tbh. people kept painting the president's comments about "blockchain" as a huge about-face on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and free markets. i am/was extremely skeptical about that. if anything, china is becoming increasingly anti-market and the government is actively cracking down on existing crypto markets.
you can tell because major chinese companies are jumping in line---weibo banning posts about "blockchain" or "crypto trading" and alipay blocking bitcoin/crypto transactions. if the government were about to become bitcoin friendly, this shit wouldn't be happening.
And the China ban is back on =) Or they probably want to do some blockchain stuff while staying away for speculation and ICOs.
https://www.coindesk.com/china-is-poised-for-another-crypto-trading-crackdown-as-speculation-returns
https://www.coindesk.com/china-is-poised-for-another-crypto-trading-crackdown-as-speculation-returns
When people say bitcoin is decentralized and you learn things like this:
https://www.coindesk.com/bitgo-says-its-now-processing-20-of-bitcoin-transactions
Why so many transactions? Perhaps they are doing a lot of exchange volume?
https://www.coindesk.com/bitgo-says-its-now-processing-20-of-bitcoin-transactions
Why so many transactions? Perhaps they are doing a lot of exchange volume?
They provide custodial services to lots of major exchanges, so yes. However their custody model entails multi-signature security so they aren't a single point of failure in exchange security breaches.
To the extent that centralization can facilitate regulation and professionalization of services, it is probably bullish for bitcoins. Especially so long as the hard core decentralizers don't get upset! (I'm normally a huge fan of decentralization, but am here for the $$$ not the politics).
For exchanges, I see no problem here regarding decentralization. Using Bitgo is more secure than not using Bitgo.
As far as individuals go, I'd like to see people securing their own private keys.
When people say bitcoin is decentralized and you learn things like this:
https://www.coindesk.com/bitgo-says-its-now-processing-20-of-bitcoin-transactions
Why so many transactions? Perhaps they are doing a lot of exchange volume? Or maybe people just don't care about the fees and aren't bothering to batch (or otherwise limit) their transactions.
To the extent that centralization can facilitate regulation and professionalization of services, it is probably bullish for bitcoins. Especially so long as the hard core decentralizers don't get upset! (I'm normally a huge fan of decentralization, but am here for the $$$ not the politics).
https://www.coindesk.com/bitgo-says-its-now-processing-20-of-bitcoin-transactions
Why so many transactions? Perhaps they are doing a lot of exchange volume? Or maybe people just don't care about the fees and aren't bothering to batch (or otherwise limit) their transactions.
To the extent that centralization can facilitate regulation and professionalization of services, it is probably bullish for bitcoins. Especially so long as the hard core decentralizers don't get upset! (I'm normally a huge fan of decentralization, but am here for the $$$ not the politics).
I'm surprised the percent of households with TVs isn't in decline. I got rid of mine (and I'm in my forties)!
https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/number-of-u-s-tv-homes-grows-to-120-6-million-says-nielsen
https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/number-of-u-s-tv-homes-grows-to-120-6-million-says-nielsen
Same but people love their televisions. Most people I know still veg out in front of them every night. They just have all their internet services (Hulu, Prime, Netflix, etc.) plugged into their TV instead of PC.
There is no major use case for bitcoin or the blockchain that warrants the current market cap. A decentralized database isn't going to come close to the economic impact and usefulness of centralized databases (I'm a database developer).
Bitcoin uses a decentralized database to store the state of the blockchain, but it isn't exactly competing with centralized databases. It's competing with other forms of money, like gold for instance.
I should modify my use case. Bitcoin is "Digital Gold for Gamblers and True Believers". And to all of you true believers, my plan is to sell out at the top (well as close as possible) and for you to lose 99% of your invested money.
Fair enough but keep in mind, the greater fool's theory applies to all assets, not just Bitcoin. Who says dollars or gold will retain their value either?
I'm surprised the percent of households with TVs isn't in decline. I got rid of mine (and I'm in my forties)!
https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/number-of-u-s-tv-homes-grows-to-120-6-million-says-nielsen
There is no major use case for bitcoin or the blockchain that warrants the current market cap. A decentralized database isn't going to come close to the economic impact and usefulness of centralized databases (I'm a database developer).
I should modify my use case. Bitcoin is "Digital Gold for Gamblers and True Believers". And to all of you true believers, my plan is to sell out at the top (well as close as possible) and for you to lose 99% of your invested money.
https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/number-of-u-s-tv-homes-grows-to-120-6-million-says-nielsen
There is no major use case for bitcoin or the blockchain that warrants the current market cap. A decentralized database isn't going to come close to the economic impact and usefulness of centralized databases (I'm a database developer).
I should modify my use case. Bitcoin is "Digital Gold for Gamblers and True Believers". And to all of you true believers, my plan is to sell out at the top (well as close as possible) and for you to lose 99% of your invested money.
But one day bitcoin won't have another bull cycle. It should be more likely that bitcoin would go down 90%, than up by a factor of 10x (at least over the next 10-20 years). Now I'm bullish enough to be gambling on "one more bubble", but at some point I might get suckered along with everyone (well 95% to 99%) else...
If Elliott Wave theory prevails, then that's a reasonable enough assumption. "What goes up must come down."
Here's an alternative theory though. What if Bitcoin adoption follows the adoption curves of other mass adopted technologies? Look at the way television penetrated 90% of society and then just plateaued forever after:
Could Bitcoin follow the same course?
What would price look like if Bitcoin were widely adopted as a currency and store of value, and everybody used it just like they do electricity or television?
I see the rise to 13k/14k as being completely unsupported by search trends and thus actual public interest in bitcoin.
why would you expect search trends to be booming already? public interest spikes during the parabolic mania phase of the bubble/bull cycle:
i don't think the market is anywhere near that point. in the above example, the $14k run is more comparable to the "take off" phase and the june-october correction was the "first selloff/bear trap".
the public hasn't really taken notice yet. and they hadn't taken notice after the initial "take off" in october-november 2015 either. the public is always late to the party---they are the late adopters, not the smart money or early adopters.
A long period of anything is bullish if you think bitcoin is always going to have another bull cycle and if you look at bitcoin's price history. So you could take a period of stability, decline, or growth and say "look what happened in x months/years/weeks - we went up 100x! =)
But one day bitcoin won't have another bull cycle. It should be more likely that bitcoin would go down 90%, than up by a factor of 10x (at least over the next 10-20 years). Now I'm bullish enough to be gambling on "one more bubble", but at some point I might get suckered along with everyone (well 95% to 99%) else...
I see the rise to 13k/14k as being completely unsupported by search trends and thus actual public interest in bitcoin. Of course some major event or set of projects could develop this public interest. It isn't like google search trends affect future google search trends. I think there is more of a project development cycle where it takes a couple years for exchanges, lightning network, regulation, etfs, and other projects to develop (keeping people busy/inspired) and then launch (which might cause a bubble).
But one day bitcoin won't have another bull cycle. It should be more likely that bitcoin would go down 90%, than up by a factor of 10x (at least over the next 10-20 years). Now I'm bullish enough to be gambling on "one more bubble", but at some point I might get suckered along with everyone (well 95% to 99%) else...
I see the rise to 13k/14k as being completely unsupported by search trends and thus actual public interest in bitcoin. Of course some major event or set of projects could develop this public interest. It isn't like google search trends affect future google search trends. I think there is more of a project development cycle where it takes a couple years for exchanges, lightning network, regulation, etfs, and other projects to develop (keeping people busy/inspired) and then launch (which might cause a bubble).
I'm slightly bearish short term (0-2 years), bullish long term (3+ years).
So the rally to $14K this year was just a bull trap?!
Google search trend points to $4500 and generally trumps other factors because it is quantifiable (or say a range of 3k-6k). I've removed my bids, but am not selling.
How do you quantify Google trends into price though?
I think present day search trends mimic what we were seeing in the autumn of 2016, and we all know what happened after that. Compare these two charts:
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2016-01-01%202016-10-01&q=bitcoin
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin
I have no idea where the price is going. I'm slightly bearish short term (0-2 years), bullish long term (3+ years). Google search trend points to $4500 and generally trumps other factors because it is quantifiable (or say a range of 3k-6k). I've removed my bids, but am not selling.
Good podcast. Dollars are the safe haven, not bitcoin. And other great points.
https://www.coindesk.com/podcast-josh-brown-on-why-bitcoin-is-like-the-1800s-railroad-boom
Good podcast. Dollars are the safe haven, not bitcoin. And other great points.
https://www.coindesk.com/podcast-josh-brown-on-why-bitcoin-is-like-the-1800s-railroad-boom
Reviewing some "fundamentals".
I see a whole lot of bullish and bearish factors listed, but where do you actually think the price will go? 2020 halving hype vs. global recession, which one will win out?!
Reviewing some "fundamentals".
Bullish Factors
Global economy at peak of bull cycle. SP500 setting another all-time-high today.
Global (long term and also short term) interest rates at historical (50-60 year) lows
Lightning Network will allow low transaction fees
Transaction fees are around $0.20-$0.70 (room to grow)
Bitcoin market share at 67%
Bitcoin ecosystem is healthy - no talks of additional forks, no new controversial splits in the community
US / China trade war (currency part of it, not the actual impact on global economy)
Republicans are unlikely to overly-regulate crypto currency and are likely to hold a majority at least in the Senate post 2020
Use case for speculation is solid. Bitcoin is digital gold for gamblers.
More ways to speculate on bitcoin (CME, CBOE, Bakkt, additional futures)
More ways to lend out bitcoin (also stable USD coins and altcoins) with Celsius Network, Blockfi, etc
May 2020 Halvening
ETF hasn't happenned yet, but seems likely in the next 1-5 years
At 9k now, we just spiked 40% up in a single day. Bullish also from 3.2k bottom
China might be serious about regulating and allowing cryptocurrency usage beyond mining (president made a statement, they are working on legislation)
Volatility helps Bitcoin fulfill its "Digital Gold for Gamblers" function
US IRS allows specific lots for determining capital gains
Added: Bitcoin has a strong network effect.
Bearish Factors
Global recession is coming (ex. US unemployment rate of 3.6% hasn't been sustained since 1960 or before without a recession)
Low rates fuel bubbles (property, crypto, stock, art, etc)
Lightning's volume is insignificant
Google Search Trends are lagging price (and lower than in the 2017 bull market)
NVT signal shows signs of being over-bought (though not as bad as in August when I last posted this and we fell 35%)
IRS increased interested in collecting capital gains
We might have exited the bear market prematurely (inadequate damage to ICOs, altcoins, self-fulfilling prophecy of another bull market is too good to be true)
No major use cases for bitcoin other than speculation (transactions, remittances, the nonsense about being your own bank -- all not that useful)
Centralized stablecoins (or even just USD payment systems) are better suited for beating credit cards
Lawsuits against Tether make strong arguments
Blockchain is falsely equated to the internet as a revolution in something - not true!
Lack of premiums in non-US exchanges (ex. in the past we had China premiums in 2013 and Korea in 2017)
Added: there are an infinte number of possible crypto-currencies and the network effect can be overcome. Bitcoin is replaceable.
Indeterminate Factors (risk?)
Mt Gox bankruptcy returns some of the coins. Wow this is taking forever!
Regulators haven't taken a strong position on ICOs
Satoshi identity(ies) is not known. Potentially owns 1 million btc.
Unresolved situation for small transactions where you are responsible for capital gains if they buy coffee
Unregulated stable coins like Tether (could be scams, regulatory crackdown -- ex. research papers on correlation between printing new Tethers and price increase in bitcoin)
Facebook Libra coin
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/ (doesn't seem so useful longterm, needs more data)
GBTC premium - https://crypto.neotechdevs.com/GBTC.jsp?chart=year#charts
Hacks, scams, ponzis
Bullish Factors
Global economy at peak of bull cycle. SP500 setting another all-time-high today.
Global (long term and also short term) interest rates at historical (50-60 year) lows
Lightning Network will allow low transaction fees
Transaction fees are around $0.20-$0.70 (room to grow)
Bitcoin market share at 67%
Bitcoin ecosystem is healthy - no talks of additional forks, no new controversial splits in the community
US / China trade war (currency part of it, not the actual impact on global economy)
Republicans are unlikely to overly-regulate crypto currency and are likely to hold a majority at least in the Senate post 2020
Use case for speculation is solid. Bitcoin is digital gold for gamblers.
More ways to speculate on bitcoin (CME, CBOE, Bakkt, additional futures)
More ways to lend out bitcoin (also stable USD coins and altcoins) with Celsius Network, Blockfi, etc
May 2020 Halvening
ETF hasn't happenned yet, but seems likely in the next 1-5 years
At 9k now, we just spiked 40% up in a single day. Bullish also from 3.2k bottom
China might be serious about regulating and allowing cryptocurrency usage beyond mining (president made a statement, they are working on legislation)
Volatility helps Bitcoin fulfill its "Digital Gold for Gamblers" function
US IRS allows specific lots for determining capital gains
Added: Bitcoin has a strong network effect.
Bearish Factors
Global recession is coming (ex. US unemployment rate of 3.6% hasn't been sustained since 1960 or before without a recession)
Low rates fuel bubbles (property, crypto, stock, art, etc)
Lightning's volume is insignificant
Google Search Trends are lagging price (and lower than in the 2017 bull market)
NVT signal shows signs of being over-bought (though not as bad as in August when I last posted this and we fell 35%)
IRS increased interested in collecting capital gains
We might have exited the bear market prematurely (inadequate damage to ICOs, altcoins, self-fulfilling prophecy of another bull market is too good to be true)
No major use cases for bitcoin other than speculation (transactions, remittances, the nonsense about being your own bank -- all not that useful)
Centralized stablecoins (or even just USD payment systems) are better suited for beating credit cards
Lawsuits against Tether make strong arguments
Blockchain is falsely equated to the internet as a revolution in something - not true!
Lack of premiums in non-US exchanges (ex. in the past we had China premiums in 2013 and Korea in 2017)
Added: there are an infinte number of possible crypto-currencies and the network effect can be overcome. Bitcoin is replaceable.
Indeterminate Factors (risk?)
Mt Gox bankruptcy returns some of the coins. Wow this is taking forever!
Regulators haven't taken a strong position on ICOs
Satoshi identity(ies) is not known. Potentially owns 1 million btc.
Unresolved situation for small transactions where you are responsible for capital gains if they buy coffee
Unregulated stable coins like Tether (could be scams, regulatory crackdown -- ex. research papers on correlation between printing new Tethers and price increase in bitcoin)
Facebook Libra coin
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/ (doesn't seem so useful longterm, needs more data)
GBTC premium - https://crypto.neotechdevs.com/GBTC.jsp?chart=year#charts
Hacks, scams, ponzis
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