Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 7. (Read 83111 times)

Nice call on the global economic cycle, and the $5K BTC prediction. Credit where credit is due. I underestimated the corona virus panic for sure, as well as the possibility for a margin cascade on BTC.

I can't tell if this is a real V-bottom yet. If it is, this long term triangle still seems possible: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54020305

And then it dumped to 3800!  Nice bounce back to 5500ish.  I think we still haven't seen round two or possibly round three.  Notably we haven't seen that many countries contain the coronavirus other than China (and South Korea seems to be doing better than average).  Of course it's impossible to know when we are at peak panic.

I'm concerned to think about how the crypto lending has possibly played a major role in increasing volatility.  There are many new lending services that let you use your crypto as an asset to get a USD loan.  However they issue margin calls and liquidations if your crypto collateral's value falls too far.  It's surprising that this 50% fall didn't cause any lenders to not be able to trigger margin calls and/or liquidations in time (or at least so far as we know).

It's perhaps good for the bitcoin as digital gold for gamblers use case that we had an unprecedented level of volatility.  Not so good for holders.

I'm mostly out of bitcoin and in cash, so waiting to buy the crash.

Sold 1 BTC at 7600.

We're already seeing a rush into US treasuries.  10 year dipped below 0.4%/year a couple days ago.  It was 1.9% at the beginning of 2020!  Sure is has recovered to 0.86% today, but nobody knows what the future holds.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y

Are you expecting a zombie apocalypse?


Mainstream investors and institutions abandoning safe havens like bonds and cash for BTC? I'd like to see that.

A slowdown may not cause a big rush into safe havens anyway. It looks like the coronavirus fallout will not cause a market contraction, just a point or two off China's GDP growth. For the US, Goldman is forecasting 1.2% GDP growth in Q1 and 2.7% in Q2.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/goldman-cuts-us-q1-gdp-forecast-to-just-over-1percent-on-coronavirus.html

I still don't see doomsday here. I think bears will be punished.

Bitcoin went up for the past several weeks therefore it is a safe asset. Nope.  We're in a crazy stock bull market and most assets are inflated.
https://www.coindesk.com/stop-treating-bitcoin-as-risky-its-a-safer-asset-than-most

Of course my case hasn't been proven yet as we haven't had a global economic slowdown in Bitcoin's price history.  So I could be wrong. But there is no reason for most people in the world to use bitcoin as a safe asset.  Even if you live in an authoritarian country, your bitcoins will be useless when the government shuts down the internet (or if they outlaw them and then use them as a reason to arrest you).

There's a small possibility that if you have say $1 billion in assets, and put $10,000 in bitcoin you might be reducing your risk in the 1/100000 chance that something causes bitcoin to stay strong while all of your other backup plans fail.  But for most people, you are better off stocking food, water, power, and other basics.

First emergency cut (and biggest one-time cut) since 2008. The benchmark is still above 1% though. This could go on for a while.

Between China's recovery and the ridiculously excessive fear around the corona virus in the US, and now the emergency rate cut on top, this is a recipe for a strong recovery and eventual new ATHs. We will probably look back at this period as just another consolidation before a bullish 2020-2021.

Here is a look at how the swine flu affected the stock market in 2009-2010. Different context I know, but important to think about. It's hard to stop a bull market:

0.5% emergency fed rate cut today.  The Fed can only cut so far before they hit zero and it doesn't work as well.  Trump is the type of person who'd probably be fine with $1-$2 trillion in fiscal stimulus, especially during an election year.

On the other hand, China seems to be doing a great job of containing Coronavirus.

10 year US treasury went below 1%. Lowest since 1960 or before?

Surprised bitcoin is holding up.

It might be the perfect FUD. Nowhere near in scope (or deadliness) to historic pandemics but everyone is mad with worry anyway. Cases dramatically drop in China and then the news cycle starts focusing on death counts in the teens in Italy, and single cases in other countries.

The S&P 500 dipped below 3000 today, I'm curious where it'll open tomorrow. The 3000 area was a huge resistance on the way up.

I expect dip buyers (in both stocks and BTC) to be rewarded but I'll admit, I'm on the edge of my seat.

Stock market is catching up.  Down 10% in the US.  10 year Treasury yield is at some historical low (1.28%).  Bitcoin at 8700 and dominance up a bit (64%).

Though I'm very confused about Coronavirus. Everyone is talking about a potential pandemic when cases in China are slowing down dramatically. Even if it spread to the US, I'm guessing we'd be very unlikely to see more than 100 fatalities - which is a hundred times less than the Flu - which kills 12,000-61,000/year according to the CDC. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

I wish I could decipher what this chart means. The indicators are proprietary so we have to take his word for it that it's "mega bullish":



I'm not sure about on chain fundamentals, but the technicals are indeed mega bullish. The 20-week MA and 200-day MA are now in the rear view mirror. The market structure is now suggesting a very bullish nested count. I could see the 2019 highs being broken by late March/early April before a dump near the halving.


The stock market bucking these corona virus worries bodes well for BTC.

Still waiting for $5K?

As we break 10k (10.1k), Willy Woo is very bullish.  He does some great work with indicators but also has a massive long term bullish bias
https://twitter.com/woonomic

"This breakout is the real deal. Fundamental investment activity is backing this $10k breakout."

I suppose it is possible that a small number of large investors are behind this move, possibly people who've researched/followed bitcoins for a while and were waiting for improvements in custody, and that is why the search trends are pathetic.  US stock market is also setting new highs.

Are there any new major crypto/bitcoin ponzis?

Coindesk quarterly report!
https://www.coindesk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/CoindeskResearchQuarterlyReviewQ42019.pdf

Reviewing some "fundamentals".  Mostly the same as Oct 2019

Bullish Factors
-Global economy at peak of bull cycle. SP500 even higher than in Oct 2019. SP500 up 30.4% in 2019.
-Global (long term and also short term) interest rates at historical (50-60 year) lows
-Lightning Network will allow low transaction fees
-Transaction fees are around $0.30-$1.00 (room to grow)
-Bitcoin market share at 66%  (67% in Oct 2019)
-Bitcoin ecosystem is healthy - no talks of additional forks, no new controversial splits in the community
-Republicans are unlikely to overly-regulate crypto currency and are likely to hold a majority at least in the Senate post 2020
-Use case for speculation is solid.  Bitcoin is digital gold for gamblers.
-More ways to speculate on bitcoin (CME, CBOE, Bakkt, additional futures)
-More ways to lend out bitcoin (also stable USD coins and altcoins) with Celsius Network, Blockfi, etc
-May 2020 Halvening
-ETF hasn't happenned yet, but seems likely in the next 1-5 years
-Volatility helps Bitcoin fulfill its "Digital Gold for Gamblers" function
-US IRS allows specific lots for determining capital gains
-Bitcoin has a strong network effect.


Bearish Factors
-Global recession is coming (ex. US unemployment rate of 3.6% hasn't been sustained since 1960 or before without a recession)
-Bitcoin is a high risk asset. In a recession, people will sell high risk assets and deleverage risk by buying US Treasuries and US dollars.
-Low rates fuel bubbles (property, crypto, stock, art, etc).  But bubbles will burst.
-Lightning's volume is insignificant
-Google Search Trends are lagging price (and lower than in the 2017 bull market)
-IRS increased interested in collecting capital gains. 2019 tax forms ask everyone to state whether they own cryptocurrency.
-We might have exited the bear market prematurely (inadequate damage to ICOs, altcoins, self-fulfilling prophecy of another bull market is too good to be true)
-No major use cases for bitcoin other than speculation (transactions, remittances, the nonsense about being your own bank -- all not that useful)
-Centralized stablecoins (or even just USD payment systems) are better suited for beating credit cards
-Lawsuits against Tether make strong arguments
-Blockchain is falsely equated to the internet as a revolution in something - not true!
-Lack of premiums in non-US exchanges (ex. in the past we had China premiums in 2013 and Korea in 2017)
-There are an infinte number of possible crypto-currencies and the network effect can be overcome. Bitcoin is replaceable.
-Global inflation rate is at historical (50+ year?) lows. Bitcoin use in countries like Venezuela with hyperinflation is negligible. US dollars are more useful.
-Long downward channel from 13.8k to 6.5k.
-Most of the rise from 3k to 13.8k might have been fueled by the $2 billion PlusToken ponzi (eg. not fundamental demand) and its collapse is likely to leave us slightly higher than the 3k start, but maybe only 50% more (my experience of the 2015 LTC ponzi based pump).
-Useless altcoins (notably XRP, Bitcoin SV, Bitcoin Cash) are over-priced. I don't think people will move money from them to Bitcoin. I think the loss of wealth will have a negative impact on Bitcoin price.

Indeterminate Factors (risk?)
-Mt Gox bankruptcy returns some of the coins.  Wow this is taking forever!
-Satoshi identity(ies) is not known. Potentially owns 1 million btc.
-Unresolved situation for small transactions where you are responsible for capital gains if they buy coffee
-Unregulated stable coins like Tether (could be scams, regulatory crackdown -- ex. research papers on correlation between printing new Tethers and price increase in bitcoin)
-Facebook Libra coin (could take a long time, if it happens at all)
-https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/  (doesn't seem so useful longterm, needs more data)
-GBTC premium - https://crypto.neotechdevs.com/GBTC.jsp?chart=year#charts
-Hacks, scams, ponzis

See everyone at 5k in 2020, 3k or less if we get a global recession in the next two years.

The fundamentals have barely changed.  We solved the China trade war (but now have tensions with Iran and who knows what Trump will do if he's behind in the polls).  The stock market is even more of a bubble.  The major use case for bitcoin continues to be speculation. We have some new/easier/safer ways to speculate using it, but it isn't being used to take on credit cards, remittances, or in countries with hyperinflation (Venezuela).

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.52932246

Why do you think it looks bad?

It looks bad now, but I'm playing long term.  I think this bullish cycle is too early, lack of new investors, and the next recession is going to be a shock to the crypto markets and
not based on significant interest.  I trade long term cycles.  And I bought half of them around 3.7k so...

Of course we can always have "one last pump" before the economic cycle peaks.  Stock market is frothy.

This didn’t age well, did it. Selling at the start of a bull cycle is really dumb unless you desperately need the money at the time.

This is Craig Wright's exit pump. It better be impressive!


LOL, what companies could fail? Apple? Microsoft? The top constituents of the S&P500 look rock solid to me.


Still planning to buy back at $5K?

Sold another 0.5 btc around 8600.   That Bitcoin SV pump (up to 170% in 24 hours, and generally moving from $100 to $450 since the start of the year) is the best alt coin pump (notably in terms of a major altcoin and gain in market cap) we've seen since the initial Bitcoin Cash pump. Very impressive.  It's still unwinding.  I wonder why people aren't suing Craig Wright?  I'd love to make a bet against whether he is Satoshi or controls private keys that have more than 500,000 btc.

SP500 continues to hit new highs.  I was interested to learn that the top five stocks make up a larger proportion of the SP500 market cap than historical averages.  So a lot depends on several companies that could fail...

And as always, if you are making tons of money counter-trading me, my PMs are open for donations =)