NVT signal is very bearish. Best case (historically) looks like a 50% decline from the top - so to 6900ish.
https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-signal/
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 13. (Read 83123 times)
My cat and I have decided that this is the "happy purring cat" phase of the market cycle, where you should have accumulated by now and are just sitting with a happy purring cat on your lap and watching your screen while the price goes up.
If the price falls too fast in a pullback, the cat should attack your computer screen to kill the bears. This is the "Attack the Dip" phase.
If the price falls too fast in a pullback, the cat should attack your computer screen to kill the bears. This is the "Attack the Dip" phase.
I'm totally confused as to the impact of Libra. There is no chance at all that you'd be able to exchange Libra for other crypto currencies without doing full KYC AML. There is no chance that FB would let you exchange Libra for other cryptocurrencies.
Last I heard, they were in talks with Gemini and Coinbase about listing it.
You apparently need to do full KYC just to use Libra at all, whether you're transferring $1 or $10,000. So yeah, they won't approve its listing on any exchanges that don't mandate full KYC. If non-approved exchanges list it, Facebook et al can just shut that shit down since it's a permissioned network.
Why do people think it would do increase the number of crypto users?
Proximity to cryptocurrency, awareness, hype. I'm not sure what to expect though really.
I'm totally confused as to the impact of Libra. There is no chance at all that you'd be able to exchange Libra for other crypto currencies without doing full KYC AML. There is no chance that FB would let you exchange Libra for other cryptocurrencies. Libra will take at least one year for it to even come out in alpha, and more likely won't ever release. It'd be centralized and probably a (mostly) stable coin, not a crytpocurrency.
Why do people think it would do increase the number of crypto users?
Why do people think it would do increase the number of crypto users?
Three month long patterns with a similarish (maybe very ish) look
1) April 1 to May 1
2) May 13 to June 12
3) June 25 to ... July 24?
Look similar IF you apply an increasing downward slope to them (within the 30 day period - so you'd adjust the 30th day of the 3rd pattern to be a lot lower vs the 1st day of the 3rd pattern, whereas in the 1st pattern the 30th day would be higher than the first day). Ok, so I'm mostly making this up as I go along (lol), but the first period was upward sloping, second was only slightly upward sloping, and the third period was downward sloping.
Though it looks more like we're going to 8k.
Nouriel Roubini is an angry and nervous person but of course that might be why they picked him for this stupid debate - so that he could butcher a set of good points. I'm interested in Arthur Hayes main case for bitcoin - a privacy currency which he thinks isn't as popular as it could be as people aren't valuing their privacy. But could be big in the future. Is bitcoin going to be a relative private currency (as the exchange hackers get away with their money - so far) or is it going to be a giant ledger where everyone can track everyone? So far I've heard both cases: 1) that criminals love bitcoin and 2) that police love bitcoin. Someone needs to do research papers on this subject!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlZukhN_C6c
The debate fails to get into key points, like should rich people (aka accredited investors) be assumed to be smarter or in need of less protection because they are rich? The Madoff ponzi would point to no (though personally I'm ok with rich people losing all their money, I just don't want it to go to other rich people or ponzis - I'd rather have it go somewhere useful).
And what kind of regulation of crypto currency regulation is desirable? What is possible? (It'd be fascinating to see Arthur's take on this).
1) April 1 to May 1
2) May 13 to June 12
3) June 25 to ... July 24?
Look similar IF you apply an increasing downward slope to them (within the 30 day period - so you'd adjust the 30th day of the 3rd pattern to be a lot lower vs the 1st day of the 3rd pattern, whereas in the 1st pattern the 30th day would be higher than the first day). Ok, so I'm mostly making this up as I go along (lol), but the first period was upward sloping, second was only slightly upward sloping, and the third period was downward sloping.
Though it looks more like we're going to 8k.
Nouriel Roubini is an angry and nervous person but of course that might be why they picked him for this stupid debate - so that he could butcher a set of good points. I'm interested in Arthur Hayes main case for bitcoin - a privacy currency which he thinks isn't as popular as it could be as people aren't valuing their privacy. But could be big in the future. Is bitcoin going to be a relative private currency (as the exchange hackers get away with their money - so far) or is it going to be a giant ledger where everyone can track everyone? So far I've heard both cases: 1) that criminals love bitcoin and 2) that police love bitcoin. Someone needs to do research papers on this subject!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlZukhN_C6c
The debate fails to get into key points, like should rich people (aka accredited investors) be assumed to be smarter or in need of less protection because they are rich? The Madoff ponzi would point to no (though personally I'm ok with rich people losing all their money, I just don't want it to go to other rich people or ponzis - I'd rather have it go somewhere useful).
And what kind of regulation of crypto currency regulation is desirable? What is possible? (It'd be fascinating to see Arthur's take on this).
Robinhood doesn't allow withdrawals of crypto! What idiots! Why would anyone use it?
I think Dollar Cost Averaging is a great idea. However, my non-bitcoin income is roughly equal to my expenses... So it isn't for me. I guess I could have dollar cost averaged after selling some of my other assets into bitcoin the first time I invested. I guess I still have some assets that I could sell and cost average into bitcoin with.
I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity....
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192
Ooh did Kraken launch margin trading in 2015? For some reason I've never registered with them. Views Kraken homepage. LOL!!!!! No wonder...
...
People typically talk of a potential 80% correction. The last one was 84% and a 90% correction is also possible. Heck we could even do 92%-95% (or ultimately a death spiral of 99%+). And there is a big difference between buying the bottom of a 80% vs 85% correction (though not so big if you think we'll go up by 20x).
...
People typically talk of a potential 80% correction. The last one was 84% and a 90% correction is also possible. Heck we could even do 92%-95% (or ultimately a death spiral of 99%+). And there is a big difference between buying the bottom of a 80% vs 85% correction (though not so big if you think we'll go up by 20x).
A related theory is that alt-coins were more useful when there was less bitcoin margin trading as one of their most important features was speculation, and speculation with higher volatility than bitcoin. I agree with this point, however as I think that the change in the ability to use margin trading with bitcoin is less than others think - I think alt coins will still have a role to play. Notably, there isn't anywhere currently that a retail US investor can do margin trading on bitcoin without violating terms of service (unless I'm mistaken).
US traders can margin trade on Kraken, up to 5x. That's about it. Otherwise they can try to squeak by through VPN on Bitmex, Deribit, Bitfinex. Over time, KYC requirements (to restrict margin trading for US traders or to comply with new FATF/national AML laws) will make these services fewer and further between. US investors are also being significantly restricted from ICO/IEO/STO token markets due to US securities laws.
So with retail margin trading and token markets becoming so restricted for US investors, I think old school altcoins will benefit. They won't be forgotten in the next bubble.
IRS - that's true. We'll probably see the big fish go first and get audited. The audits will get messy. For instance, at some point I lost (or more likely probably donated and spent without recording it) a small amount of bitcoin. And I think i've lost my earliest addresses (some of which might be in the Bitcoinica database but that is lost).
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I was watching Willy Woo saying how the NPT shows that Bitcoin is overbought. Though he is only calling for a correction down to 6k (if I recall correctly). For instance, the NVT 90 day model is calling for a $6047 bitcoin price.
https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-price-models/
...
Fact check. A lot of new players are ignorant about the fact that you could short bitcoin fairly easily starting around Jan-March 2013 using Bitfinex (and even earlier on Bitcoinica in 2012 and even earlier in 2011 on another website that I'm forgetting). They claim that shorting is new which is blatantly wrong. Now margin-trading took some time to get up to speed, and generally wasn't that stable on Bitfinex until 2014 (swap rates still at 40% APR) or 2015 (when swap rates fell to 20%/APR, representing lower risk) - but it was doable. And was definitely doable in the 2017 bull market on many exchanges.
A related theory is that alt-coins were more useful when there was less bitcoin margin trading as one of their most important features was speculation, and speculation with higher volatility than bitcoin. I agree with this point, however as I think that the change in the ability to use margin trading with bitcoin is less than others think - I think alt coins will still have a role to play. Notably, there isn't anywhere currently that a retail US investor can do margin trading on bitcoin without violating terms of service (unless I'm mistaken).
...
I'm skeptical of the Halvening. Though with a lack of fundamentals people tend to latch on to things and assign them weight they don't deserve (ex. Tone Vays thinks the Cyprus banking crisis was critical), And then they get weight because of it. So the Halvening is likely to be an event, especially if we are in a bull market. Or it might be seen as the cause of a spike in the prices even if it isn't one (some people were assigning the LTC price increase to its upcoming Halvening).
...
I was watching Willy Woo saying how the NPT shows that Bitcoin is overbought. Though he is only calling for a correction down to 6k (if I recall correctly). For instance, the NVT 90 day model is calling for a $6047 bitcoin price.
https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-price-models/
...
Fact check. A lot of new players are ignorant about the fact that you could short bitcoin fairly easily starting around Jan-March 2013 using Bitfinex (and even earlier on Bitcoinica in 2012 and even earlier in 2011 on another website that I'm forgetting). They claim that shorting is new which is blatantly wrong. Now margin-trading took some time to get up to speed, and generally wasn't that stable on Bitfinex until 2014 (swap rates still at 40% APR) or 2015 (when swap rates fell to 20%/APR, representing lower risk) - but it was doable. And was definitely doable in the 2017 bull market on many exchanges.
A related theory is that alt-coins were more useful when there was less bitcoin margin trading as one of their most important features was speculation, and speculation with higher volatility than bitcoin. I agree with this point, however as I think that the change in the ability to use margin trading with bitcoin is less than others think - I think alt coins will still have a role to play. Notably, there isn't anywhere currently that a retail US investor can do margin trading on bitcoin without violating terms of service (unless I'm mistaken).
...
I'm skeptical of the Halvening. Though with a lack of fundamentals people tend to latch on to things and assign them weight they don't deserve (ex. Tone Vays thinks the Cyprus banking crisis was critical), And then they get weight because of it. So the Halvening is likely to be an event, especially if we are in a bull market. Or it might be seen as the cause of a spike in the prices even if it isn't one (some people were assigning the LTC price increase to its upcoming Halvening).
Also the news about the IRS's plans to go after US taxpayers is very bearish. They might use social media (google searches, fb, twitter, etc), and interviews to identify crypto currency users! There might be billions of unpaid taxes at stake, and depending on how they operate (do they prosecute people for their tax avoiding felonies or settle for payment plans with interest and penalties?), a lot of people could go to jail.
80% conviction rate. About 3000 people going to jail per year.
https://www.irs.gov/compliance/criminal-investigation/statistical-data-for-three-fiscal-years-criminal-investigation-ci
80% conviction rate. About 3000 people going to jail per year.
https://www.irs.gov/compliance/criminal-investigation/statistical-data-for-three-fiscal-years-criminal-investigation-ci
That gives you an idea how many people will probably go to jail over this. Probably not many. I'm guessing there will be some steep fines and penalties with payment plans, plus a limited number of criminal prosecutions of bigger fish, so they can make an example of them.
They don't need to use something so unreliable as social media. Last year, the courts compelled Coinbase to hand the IRS data about 13,000 customers. Based on what the IRS has said, only a small fraction of those customers reported anything on their tax returns. Some of those people are about to be audited.
dude you've been around since 2011 and never gave into fomo before? 
with the halving coming next year, hyped institutional markets (bakkt, fidelity) expected to come online soon, and the way the long term chart looks.....i'm thinking you won't need to wait 2+ years.
with the halving coming next year, hyped institutional markets (bakkt, fidelity) expected to come online soon, and the way the long term chart looks.....i'm thinking you won't need to wait 2+ years.
I might be a stubborn idiot but I refuse to believe we will keep rising up from here now till the next year Halvening. For starters that is a false hype event in my view, yes lower supply but thats only true with every block there after so the actual date is not that important, its not a very significant event. The effect is culmative and the history from the last half of block reward backs me up on that, mostly that date was the high. Not a great sell but still not a launching point and theres no need to rush, market is not already starting for that date imo. If its bullish, its for other reasons and after halvening, yea is helps price I guess.
FOMO is misguided, commit to buy a small amount ahead regularly in every month of a year and thats a good idea for a long term belief in crypto expansion. I should have been alot smarter like that. Just jumping onto a rise is a bit dangerous, some traders can do this (can write off any loss) and other people get holding more BTC then they needed for years.
Quote
Bought 0.5 btc at 11070.
I sold there in 2017. Clearly I'm way too much of sceptic 
https://decrypt.co/7795/investigators-tether-loaned-usdt-to-investors-illegally-traded-in-new-york-ran-an-unregistered-securities-offering
Remember when I wanted to setup an offshore corporation so I could loan USD on Bitfinex? They changed the terms of service to ban US persons, but apparently if you were a rich NY trader they accomodated you (in spite of NY having the strictest regulations on cryptocurrency in the US!).
Remember when I wanted to setup an offshore corporation so I could loan USD on Bitfinex? They changed the terms of service to ban US persons, but apparently if you were a rich NY trader they accomodated you (in spite of NY having the strictest regulations on cryptocurrency in the US!).
the bit about loaned USDT to new york traders (galaxy/mike novogratz are involved apparently) is intriguing. does this give some validity to the claims that tethers were being "printed" and used to buy bitcoins/crypto? novogratz is an uber perma bull, of course.
they always openly served "eligible contract participants" ($10m assets, incorporation outside of USA) who are considered USA persons, even after the ban. that's why galaxy was trading there. i think they had no respect for the state of NY's ability to do anything about it. they were only concerned about the feds IMO.
https://decrypt.co/7795/investigators-tether-loaned-usdt-to-investors-illegally-traded-in-new-york-ran-an-unregistered-securities-offering
Remember when I wanted to setup an offshore corporation so I could loan USD on Bitfinex? They changed the terms of service to ban US persons, but apparently if you were a rich NY trader they accomodated you (in spite of NY having the strictest regulations on cryptocurrency in the US!).
Also the news about the IRS's plans to go after US taxpayers is very bearish. They might use social media (google searches, fb, twitter, etc), and interviews to identify crypto currency users! There might be billions of unpaid taxes at stake, and depending on how they operate (do they prosecute people for their tax avoiding felonies or settle for payment plans with interest and penalties?), a lot of people could go to jail.
80% conviction rate. About 3000 people going to jail per year.
https://www.irs.gov/compliance/criminal-investigation/statistical-data-for-three-fiscal-years-criminal-investigation-ci
Meanwhile bitcoin continues the denial phase bull run as we got a higher high (12.8k beats 12.4k) on the medium term, and we might be set to break the 13.8k high of the current bull market. Search trends aren't so great either.
Remember when I wanted to setup an offshore corporation so I could loan USD on Bitfinex? They changed the terms of service to ban US persons, but apparently if you were a rich NY trader they accomodated you (in spite of NY having the strictest regulations on cryptocurrency in the US!).
Also the news about the IRS's plans to go after US taxpayers is very bearish. They might use social media (google searches, fb, twitter, etc), and interviews to identify crypto currency users! There might be billions of unpaid taxes at stake, and depending on how they operate (do they prosecute people for their tax avoiding felonies or settle for payment plans with interest and penalties?), a lot of people could go to jail.
80% conviction rate. About 3000 people going to jail per year.
https://www.irs.gov/compliance/criminal-investigation/statistical-data-for-three-fiscal-years-criminal-investigation-ci
Meanwhile bitcoin continues the denial phase bull run as we got a higher high (12.8k beats 12.4k) on the medium term, and we might be set to break the 13.8k high of the current bull market. Search trends aren't so great either.
https://www.coindesk.com/june-sets-records-for-cme-bitcoin-futures-as-sign-ups-surge-30
Is it one bitcoin per contract?
Is it one bitcoin per contract?
contract unit = 5 bitcoins. https://www.cmegroup.com/education/bitcoin/cme-bitcoin-futures-frequently-asked-questions.html
there is also leverage to consider though. i think it's limited to 3x or something so we should probably assume most positions are leveraged 2-3x beyond actual collateral.
https://www.coindesk.com/june-sets-records-for-cme-bitcoin-futures-as-sign-ups-surge-30
Is it one bitcoin per contract?
Is it one bitcoin per contract?
Classic FOMO! Was fun while it lasted (13.8k) and now underwater as we plummet down to $10300. No regrets!!! (well maybe not)
LOL. No worries, we'll be back above $11K shortly if only for a good bounce. We hit my first downside target (a stop run below the $10,500 area) so I think we'll grind upwards for the next few days into the weekly close.
We could be in for a multi-week (or even multi-month) correction though. It's a bit early to tell exactly.
So a 25.8% correction on Bitstamp (assuming 10.3k holds) and 24.5% on Bitfinex. Interesting to see Coinbase have a higher high and lower low. Does Coinbase have more US traders? It might just be based on who trades on the exchange and whether they are awake. Or it could be a retail vs institution thing.
Classic FOMO! Was fun while it lasted (13.8k) and now underwater as we plummet down to $10300. No regrets!!! (well maybe not)
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