Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 9. (Read 38849 times)

The bookmakers were right again, but I would never bet with 1.11 odds in a market like this, it's pure madness. By the way, it was surprising for me that Ronaldo scored for Liechtenstein for the first time, he is often accused of scoring against dwarf countries, but Liechtenstein was not yet on his list (it seems that it now consists of about 50 teams - not every striker generally scores so many goals for the national team ).

Azerbaijan could not do anything against Austria  No more national team bets? It seems to me that a bet on Kazakhstan against Austria with odds of 14.50 may be promising.

Nice to see you back!  I hope we see interesting successful bets again.

As for Azerbaijan, such odds would be adequate in my opinion if they played at home, but away I would not take odds less than 15. On the other hand, this is a "broken" season, so the randomness of the results of the games should be above average.

From today's games, I like the ridiculous quotes for the victory of Portugal - 1.01 (but I can understand this), and the even more ridiculous quote that Ronaldo will score a goal - 1.11  With all due respect to Ronaldo and Portugal, this is something strange.

I know it's been such a long time since I updated this (well, 4 months is long enough) but real life has become such a nuisance I've really not been able to make proper bets the way I would have liked for this thread. Nevertheless, I intend to do my best to get this up back and running.

So we start with Euros (terrible choice?) but if you've been following this then you know my predilections for teams from Caucascus and "Asia" who somehow play in UEFA.

Slovenia is just about finishing the match to beat Kazakhstan, which is normally a bet I'd take but they were at only 3/1 if I recall, so we escaped that loss.

Tomorrow, however, I got eyes on Azerbaijan, who'll do all they can to upset Austria.

100 units on Azerbaijan to WIN vs Austria @12.55 on Sportsbet. Other odds: 11.5
Bet ID: 641b644369eea000018c4f93
Units advantage: 105


Also, finally updating the totals here. We had a great Brentford win vs City (+1900), but we did lose the hedge (-100) (on a final minute Toney goal too!) so a small nick, no problem.

Oh, I completely forgot about the fact that the return of the bet is included in the coefficient, but at such a large coefficient my error is small )
What are your plans for the World Cup? It seems to me that there is a high randomness and betting on outsiders that you love so much will often work. When teams from different regions of the world play, which rarely meet with each other, it seems to me that even with all the analytical power of bookmakers it is difficult to predict the result with high accuracy.

Haha, yeah, but almost every win I have in this thread is unexpected, hence the longshot odds... but proving that season after season, you cannot ignore the value of such odds. TBF I thought it'd be longer than 10 mins injury time as Laporte was treated for 8 or 9 minutes, and normally you have min 3 mins injury time anyway.

I hedged 100 units so yes, it is as if it was x18, which means profit will only be 17x (as you'll notice I only add profit minus wager when I win). But it was a good hedge as I noticed Brentford actually played really well, and it was Half Time odds (as I noted in the bet itself). So I would have made profit even if Toney didn't score in the end, but happy I did as draw odds were going down actually as soon as second half started.

I'll update totals next time I put my bet here, thanks for following

Wow ) Probably no one expected that Manchester City would actually lose this game (even the referee who probably added so much time for Manchester City to win and not lose hahaha), but it happened.
Taking into account the fact that you spent money on hedging, did the final winnings turn out to be x18? This is really a minor loss relative to x19. At what minute of the game did you hedge?

I know I'm late, match has already started, but I already had this post ready, just forgot that the match starts so early, so allow me to put this in, won't you guys? Not like City won't win this anyway, right? haha.

100 units at Fairlay on Brentford to WIN vs City @19.00. Other odds at the time 15.0! (Note HT odds is still 19/1 Brentford, so consider this accurate).

Edit: Can't believe it's actually HT with Brentford allowing in a goal finally. Let's add a nice small live hedge here on a draw, shall we?
100 units at Sportsbet on draw @4.74. Other odds: 4.40

Units advantage: 400+34

Giving some love to this thread, perhaps Real can do Barca a favour by losing again? I remember Cadiz doing rather well vs the big 2 last season... Caught it at really good value too.

100 units at Fairlay on Cadiz to WIN vs Real Madrid @24.6. Other odds: 19.00
Units advantage: 546

Yeah, Vardy and co let me down, KdB showed up. No more Haaland again tonight, I'm boring, so Sevilla win in final group game? Pep suggests he's rotating...

Was hoping to see better odds elsewhere against Real or Ajax but no 10/1 specials...

100 units at Fairlay on Sevilla to WIN vs City @14.43. Other odds: 14.10
Units advantage: 33

That was never happening, was it, even if Antony was doing his tricks miles away from a defender ha!

But today we have the bottom team meeting what should be the top team. Leicester are in dire straights but Vardy loves a big game, and Haaland has to stop firing at some point, right?

100 units at Fairlay on Leicester City to WIN vs City @10.06. Other odds: 9.42
Units advantage: 64

^ Thanks! I actually only recorded 2016 season when we were in Europa League, almost all my bets were just on Liverpool, they were in Europa League, chasing a new format under Klopp, odds were great. I made a lot of bets on them ML but also I recall Sturridge scoring (he was on a hot streak). It was a pure for fun gamble with a very small amount, new bookie accounts to take advantage of tremendous odds, and ended the season with a huge sum despite losing the final.

Since then, I actually don't bet on Liverpool much if odds are below 2/1 except to tag them on to accas. I honestly don't know if I'm profitable on them but I made quite a lot of outright money on them winning UCL and Premier League, not to mention big bets against City (where we're always the underdog)... the 20/1 odds on us to qualify vs Barca after we got thrashed 3-0 jumps to memory as the biggest odds win on single bets.

So I feel I can safely say -- without proper evidence but I bet if you went through this thread and picked out Liverpool-only bets -- that I don't lose too much on Liverpool since odds are rarely above 2/1, and when they are, that's big value for me. Big bets as the underdogs pays off quite a bit because we do have a high win rate against fancier opposition.

We deserved the in last night, but we did NOT deserve the HT lead. Funny how football goes.

Anyway, just 1 ambitious bet tonight and that's on Sheriff to beat United... I actually thought I snatched super value at 31/1 because even with price boost on most bookies it was well under 30, but today odds are as high as 36/1 on Fairlay. So... I'll count that as negative value as I won't double down stakes

100 units at Fairlay on Sheriff Tiraspol to WIN vs United @31.00. Other odds: 35.98
Units advantage: -498

Oops! I forgot to congratulate you on this victory  


I also think that the odds are good, although betting on Liverpool is dangerous as always (although if I remember correctly in the pool, I chose Liverpool to win). By the way, as a Liverpool fan, do you keep separate statistics on the success of bets on them? It would be interesting to know the result because in some games Liverpool takes a victory that is highly quoted by the bookmakers (as with City), and in some "reliable" games they lose points.

Brighton actually started... brightly, if defending well is bright. But enough about that, tonight I'm putting a big one on Liverpool but for this thread, just a modest doubling down on regular stakes will do for a half time lead. Yes I know the Reds concede first 80% of games this season but can we just get the early lead first?

200 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to WIN at HT vs Ajax @2.56. Other odds: 2.48
Units advantage: 16

Big win for Liverpool and we're back in business! I know it's pretty dumb to tempt the gods to get City another loss, at home, no doubt, and to toothless Brighton, no doubt, but I love betting on and against streaks...

100 units at Fairlay on Brighton to WIN vs City @15.84. Other odds: 14.20
Units advantage: 164

Well, a clean slate. That's still better than a lot of other alternatives in gambling I guess. Almost as if I'm just bent on making this the first season ending in a loss, right?

Which brings us to the next dangerous bet...


I think it's excellent odds, actually. It rose to 44/10 at some point (price boost probably would have taken that to almost 5/1), but after their thumping win in Glasgow, it's back to around 41/10 now.

No Diaz, no Matip, no Trent -- ordinarily, bad news for me, but with the way defence has been acting up lately, it's not really terrible news (Diaz will be missed for sure, but with Firmino in rich vein of form, I'm okay with Jota slotting in and helping him out). We've also got Robbo back, not that Tsimikas has been bad, but he enjoys going against City.

As you say, and this is exactly how I see odds. 4/1 means we should win at home 1 out of 4 games. I believe even at our current form, we win 1 out of 3 (win, lose, draw). Is that good value? For me 100%.

So 500 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to WIN vs City @4.40. Other odds: 4.04
Units advantage: 160

What do you think about the odds in the game Liverpool - City? At the moment the quotes are as follows:

3.85 - 4.10 - 1.87

In the game with Arsenal, I was sure that Arsenal would not lose (although the quotes were cloudy). But when I see such odds for City against Liverpool, I have great doubts in its fairness. Liverpool have been bad this season but they can't be so bad that they don't win at least one of their three home games against City at a difficult moment. For me the Liverpool bet has a lot of value (3.85-3=0.85 ~ probably 28% of the value).

Looks like I'm about to repeat last season's miserable performance by making too many bets. None hit yesterday and far from it too, so I should just keep this steady but... hear me out.

Liverpool are 2.85 to win versus Arsenal. I have never seen this high odds before against Arsenal and it's for 2 reasons:
- Arsenal have the better form
- Liverpool have conceded in every game but 2
- Arsenal are at home, so home money is piling on the current league leaders.

I have further explanations here.

So I think, let's put almost all the profit we have got on this game, if we lose, it's as if we start on a clean slate. If we win, we're back in business.

400 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to WIN vs Arsenal @2.85. Other odds: 2.70. Bet ID: 6341669c35d4bf2b81d139ab
Units advantage: 60

Probably yeah =) I'm such a small fish it doesn't move the markets, so I'm safe I think!

Anyway, 3 games today, before some silly bet tomorrow but let's see how this turns out.

City will win, but if there's a blip, I want it. Real look amazing, but Getafe have been doing some serious tricks and red cards at home, so expect chaos and Chelsea, well, without Kante is always my reason to bet against them even if Wolves look horrible... maybe Traore can redeem himself with his rare once a season performance?

100 units each at Fairlay:

Getafe to WIN vs Real Madrid @7.17. Other odds: 6.80
Wolves to WIN vs Chelsea @8.58. Other odds: 8.25
Saints to WIN vs Man City @21.00. Other odds: 19.20
Total units advantage: 37+33+180 = 250

Okay, I understand you. I will try to observe odds with the help of this service. It turns out that if we see an opportunity to place a bet with a crypto bookmaker with odds (with or without boost) that are at least a few percent better than the best odds from fiat bookmakers, then we should do it because this is a value bet.
I would like to know if anyone does this on a regular basis - probably if they do, they keep quiet about it so as not to spoil the market, hehe.

The less said about my poor bet, the better. Worst thing is even if United did win, I'd have lost thanks to Liverpool's leaky defence.

But Champions League is back, and I'm putting some bets over the next 2 days, but let's start with tomorrow night. Today, Viktoria are over 63/1 to win against Bayern, but as much as I'm tempted, Mane and co will win. So...

100 units at Fairlay on Shakhtar Donetsk to WIN vs Real Madrid @15.1. Other odds: 14.5
100 units at Fairlay on Copenhagen to WIN vs Man City @43.55. Other odds: 40.0
Units advantage: 60+145 =205




Sorry I couldn't be more descriptive, but believe me, in practice I bet quite a lot on low value (I'm think of Liverpool v League 1/2 cup ties at only 1.2x when they're playing their B team, shockingly poor value). It's the nature of the sports supporter to place bets on someone or a team they like, completely swallowed by bias.

I won't for example bet on Liverpool tonight at 1.35, sounds good but Rangers is a tough physical team, while Reds players are half struggling for form... 1.35 in simple terms is them winning 3 out of 4 games on the same lineup, just to break even. Something I can't even really calculate as the last competitive match against Scottish opponents was 20 years ago.  Can't see value (but on the other hand I'd bet on Rangers if I were able to bet against my own team!).

But yes, I definitely add picks here I think are much, much higher than average value. The biggest clue to me (but I have no science for this) is comparing on oddschecker, which uses fiat bookie odds. You can see the best odds from about 20 bookies there, and if you find something on P2P or with a price boost that's even 10% more than that, I'd call that value. Note that highest odds on oddschecker are usually promos with very small max bet usually so the average is a better sample.

Anyway, my odds comparison is the best among all crypto bookies I have, including price boosts, if any. They more or less take the same odds provider (Pinnacle) anyway, so it's really just juice that affects it.