Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 58. (Read 40042 times)

Ouchie on Burnley. To be fair to them, they were really pushing the City defence with the high balls, but to be also fair to City, the way Burnley were attacking, there was never any threat. Even the last goal was more about how shitty City defence is rather than how dangerous Burnley are.

But how about the Palace win? I love my Harry Wilson and Solanke but on nights when Zaha and co are on fire, their play is irresistible. Sakho red card tells me new EPL rules on fierce tackles are something to watch out for but glad we pulled that parlay down.

Also, corrected the calculations for yesterday.

Anyway, Sportsbet special looks really interesting. Leicester are on fire now but Watford are the surprise package too, and the Foxes even if they win will probably take a goal, so 2-1 would be nice to book us a win.
100 units at Sportsbet on Watford +1.5, Over 1.5 goals, Over 8.5 corners, Over 2.5 yellows @5.00. Bet ID: 5de75ab08133164931223a19

Betcoin odds:
Watford +1.5: 1.87
Goals Over 1.5: 1.19
Corners over 8.5: 1.31
Yellow over 2.5: 1.36
Theoretical parlay: 3.9645

Odds advantage: 26.12%
Units advantage: 103.55

We almost won, didn't we now? United were sorry, sorrier than I've seen them. But I'm happy, cause this could make them stronger for the City clash, but before that, as promised, we have to back Burnley to beat City. They look so bad without good old Aguero, even Sterling and a super de Bruyne could only salvage 1 point. Maybe Burnley remind City of their frailties AGAIN.

And why not back Palace to win the other game with a Marseille away win in Ligue 1?
Game 1: Crystal Palace-AFC Bournemouth. Palace WIN @2.29. Sportsbet odds: 2.25
Game 2: Angers Sco-Olympique Marseille. Marseille WIN @2.54. Sportsbet odds: 2.48
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.8166. Sportsbet parlay: 5.58

Odds advantage: 4.24%
Units advantage: 23.66

100 units at Sportsbet on Burnley to WIN vs Manchester City @11.70. Betcoin odds: 10.80
Bet ID: 5de64945cdc6f15bc51f8a31

Odds advantage: 9.26%
Units advantage: 100

Total units advantage: 123.66

It almost happened didn't it? Almost, being the key word! But it was a great night in any event. Two of the closes competitors dropped points. I knew Chelsea were always unstable but the home loss was a real shock, pity we didn't pick that upset (though it was probably around 4 or 5/1 anyway).

Jack Grealish impressed as we thought he would in last week's home win and now that his fitness is returning, I'm sure he'd relish a run against younger boys at Old Trafford. Worth an almost 7/1 bet? Oh yeah!

We'll come back if the other picks look interesting (Foxes and Gunners parlay is only 25/10), at the moment I'm just waiting to judge Wolves. They could be really tired after that epic 3/3 Europa game.

For now, 100 units at Sportsbet.io on Villains to WIN vs United @7.21. Betcoin odds: 6.92
Bet ID: 5de38a3ff3240e96509b95ec

Odds advantage: 4.19%
Units advantage: 29

We almost had it, really. Still needed Schalke to score late, Fulham to survive Swansea onslaught, but Celta Vigo, despite dominating, couldn't take the points home. There are so many EPL games this December, if I were an objective bettor, I'd say at least 1 loss is due for either Man City or Liverpool. Something has to give. But because I'm purely emotional, I would say Liverpool will survive intact, maybe draw, but City could fall, so I'm betting against them every match. No Aguero? Jesus walks in but Steve Bruce will inspire!

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Newcastle to WIN vs Manchester City @13.37. Fairlay odds: 11.51

Odds advantage: 16.16%
Units advantage: 186

If we'd have taken a parlay of Frankfurt and Astana, we'd have gotten 13/1, but hey how were we supposed to know Ole and Unai's teams would play like shit, right? Mourinho would be so pleased to know that his was the only English team that won a game in Europe this week! Strange times we live in.

Fulham are not quite at their best but they should follow up a win with another away at Welsh side, I'm still thinking this team should get right back into EPL! Schalke should also play with some positivism after a 4-game unbeaten. Celta Vigo haven't won at home since October but after smacking Villareal last Sunday (a game I picked!), I'm going to back them for a much-needed home win!

Game 1: Swansea City vs Fulham. Fulham WIN @2.38. Sportsbet odds: 2.34
Game 2: Schalke 04 vs Union Berlin. Schalke WIN @1.70. Sportsbet odds: 1.68
Game 3: Celta Vigo vs Real Valladolid. Vigo WIN @1.80. Sportsbet odds: 1.79
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.2828. Sportsbet parlay: 7.0368

Odds advantage: 3.50%
Units advantage: 24.6

Wolves ended up leading 3-1, they were not the favourites too as you can see from the odds, but you're right, they still ended up drawing. Wolves as usual can't withstand serious attacks and they seem a bit more fragile away. Thanks for backing up that tip with your reasoning, not very typical of a lot of tipsters somehow!

Too bad you lost the Roma leg, strange to have a clean sheet away at Istanbul.

Hate Europa League games, I always loose money on them...Anyway I decided to bet again tonight and see if something changed, also have a free bet so what better way to use it.

My sure tip for tonight, directly in clash with your bet above:
Braga-Wolves - boring draw, both teams go trough if this one ends as draw, considering putting more money on this one as single
Rest of the bets in free bet multi
Alkmaar, Arsenal, Roma - both to score

Yikes. Feels strange still that Liverpool DRAWS actually kill me these days but it goes to show just how far they've climbed in terms of expectations. Have to get used to that now, and for as long as they can still serve to pad up a good parlay, I guess, there's no point in ignoring their successes.

Anyway, another freebet to use tonight, but I'll still consider it as units lost, since it'll only complicate matters to count them in. Let's do an all English victory at Europa League!

Game 1: Braga vs Wolves. Wolves WIN @3.19. Betcoin odds: 3.05
Game 2: Arsenal vs Eintracht Frankfurt. Arsenal WIN @1.91. Betcoin odds: 1.92
Game 3: Astana vs Man Utd. Utd WIN @1.95. Betcoin odds: 1.96
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @11.88. Sportsbet parlay: 11.47
bet ID: 5ddfe591cdc6f193271ec941

Odds advantage: 3.57%
Units advantage: 41

Well, it was all lost at half time anyway. Mou still got his first CL win with Spurs but he had to of course show the world that he doesn't really care about defence anymore.

Anyway, we've got a freebet to use up at Sportsbet so I'm going to go with a simple parlay today. I actually have a huge bet riding on Liverpool (3 leg parlay I posted about here already. 79 mbtc if the Reds win, which isn't so impressive with BTC price these days. Caught it at good odds now, most bookies put Pool below 1.39 right now. Probably all the bad news coming out of Napoli camp.

Today's 2-leg acca to settle at HALF time:
Game 1: Liverpool vs Napoli. Liverpool WIN @1.85. Betcoin odds: 1.77
Game 2: Barcelona vs Dortmund. Barca WIN @2.02. Betcoin odds: 1.89
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @3.74. Betcoin parlay: 3.35
Bet ID: 5ddcdc67eeb3073bfac60686

Odds advantage: 11.64%
Units advantage: 39

Aston Villa got the full win for their style and play, but we were duped earlier when Cagliari were up 2-0, before just imploding, getting red carded and conceding the equaliser in injury time. That's football for you, eh?

Good promo for a free bet at Sportsbet.io today on Champs League, if the 3+ acca loses by 1 leg, we get back the free bet. With price boost, it also gives us really good odds so I'll parlay tough home wins with Spurs and Munich wins in first half (because I don't trust their staying power haha):

Game 1: Spurs vs Olympiakos. Spurs win 1st Half @1.66. Betcoin odds: 1.65
Game 2: Red Star vs Bayern. Bayern win 1st Half @1.62. Betcoin odds: 1.63
Game 3: Real vs PSG. Real WIN @2.35. Betcoin odds: 2.37
Game 4: Juventus vs Atletico. Juve WIN @2.32. Betcoin odds: 2.24
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @14.66. Betcoin parlay: 14.27
Bet ID: 5ddcde3368f748fe1cc8fc60

Odds advantage: 2.73%
Units advantage: 39

Right then, United woke up for 10 minutes and decided to score three goals. Of course, Hoffenheim decided to nap the whole game anyway so we would have lost the parlay in arguably more painful fashion had we seen the Blades pull through! Shame on the result, even Villareal KO'd huh Trofo?

Love Newcastle but they've been riding their luck, while Villa deserve to be better positioned. Parlay with a Cagliari away win.

Game 1: Aston Villa vs Newcastle. Villa WIN @2.15. Betcoin odds: 2.17
Game 2: Lecce vs Cagliari. Cagliari WIN @2.33 Betcoin odds: 2.26
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @5.01. Betcoin parlay: 4.90
Bet ID: 5ddb7fe34d1ee6793d807880

Odds advantage: 2.24%
Units advantage: 11

Trofo, you made me smile. I don't know if anyone is enjoying United's sorrows as much as Liverpool fans but you're absolutely right. Sheffield play so good they deserve not to lose (and they lost to Liverpool with bad luck too!), while United, until lately deserve to be bottom. But bookies always neglect form and what seems obvious to us, so we are happy for these odds!

Good luck to you, Hoffenheim is one of those teams also playing exciting football -- I actually only started watching a bit of them after we got Firmino. I like your chances with Villareal too, so good luck for yout 55/10!

So glad you started following, and yes, please remember this isn't exactly a tip thread -- it's just a way to follow the way I bet. Awful win record but I only bet 1% of bankroll so I can lose the whole season and only lose my bankroll;)

This started out for me as a very personal way to keep track of how I bet. basically I did so well in the Europa League season of Liverpool, which was the season I started playing long bets and parlays instead of always trying to do 2/1 and 3/1 on 2 or 3 favourites. So far, had a good season last year, and hoping to end this one well.

I take pre-season outrights too, last season was 9/1 on Liverpool winning champs league, this time it's only 7/1 but I still took it =)

Is that really an upset? Since I saw this two clubs will play today I immediately thought no way United is winning this. I opted for a safer bet, 1x on Sheffield @1.9 coupled with Hoffenheim win @1,65 and Villarreal win @ 1,75.

Just wanted to say that I started reading trough your tips, I am mostly not following them since I prefer a little less risky picks but like to see how other people think to avoid upsets. You are doing a great job, keep it up  Imagine thumbs up smiley instead of this one please

I was wrong about Chelsea haha. City only won 2-1 but the game was a lot easier on them than it looked, at least in the second half anyway. Aguero had slightly poor finishing, strange for him to carry poor form across 2 games and internationals but I guess those blips are what you count on and still even Kante scoring couldn't get us our win. But what a beautiful way to win a parlay eh? Spurs narrowly winning, and Pool of course having the best odds needed to win in 85th minute, good old Bobby Firmino! Lovely way to take our profits up to over 90%!

If yesterday we backed an away parlay, let's do a home one instead, including an upset for the Blades vs Utd!

Game 1: Sheffield Utd vs Man Utd. Sheffield WIN @3.85. BCR odds: 3.59
Game 2: Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05. Hoffenheim WIN @1.66. BCR odds: 1.67
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.391. BCR parlay: 5.9953

Odds advantage: 6.6%
Units advantage: 39.57

Adding a last minute bet here after the magnificent parlay we just won, I knew we had such a good thing going! Simple bet and I am on mobile so will just post the bet here. And will update this post with the exact odds and betslip much later on.

Because at this kind of form, Chelsea can do a repeat of last season and deal City their 4th loss in 13 games! Almost 6/1 at Bitcoinrush! Do it now

I suppose we just HAD to have a loser, Lille was poached by Mourinho, though so let's see if he can get his winning start underway.

Back to EPL! Liverpool must win, so I'm going to consider this a 3-leg parlay with difficult but doable away wins. Feeling good about the selection though. Ambitious? Maybe. But I want Saturday to kick off with a bang!

Game 1: West Ham vs Tottenham. Spurs WIN @1.71. Betcoin odds: 1.70
Game 2: Brighton vs Leicester City. Leicester WIN @2.00. Betcoin odds: 2.02
Game 3: Bournemouth vs Wolverhampton. Wolves WIN @2.71. Betcoin odds: 2.63
Game 4: Crystal Palace vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.47. Betcoin odds: 1.48

100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @13.62. Betcoin parlay: 13.36
Bet ID: 5dd900912764f160e39c8dd5

Odds advantage: 1.95%
Units advantage: 26

Running advantage after 171 bets: +8,353.21 (+26)
All-time cumulative: +21,352.74
Running units after 170 bets (32W|138L): +8,090.12 (-100 units)

Antwerp are on a roll! Beating in succession the top 2 in Belgian league A, they must be fancying their chances now, and I know a certain supporter in this forum will be very pleased!

Good win for us, and we're making up for a long streak of losses. Let's see if we can tap PSG for another shock home loss to see us through before the big day tomorrow =)

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Lille to WIN vs PSG @11.99. Betcoin odds: 11.39

Odds advantage: 5.27%
Units advantage: 60

Shocking, absolutely shocking haha. Conservative parlays and then the underdog wins. But hey, you get what you get, deserve all the rest.

Our picks today is a local league (not exactly local for me but neighbouring Indonesia) parlayed with Antwerp, who must be feeling extra good after last game's upset over Club Brugge to cause them their first loss of the season (at the expense of Mignolet too, I should add!). Can we count on them to repeat the feat against second-placed Gent? Why not?

Game 1: Semen Padang vs Persepar Kalteng Putra. Padang WIN @1.86. Sportsbet odds: 1.86
Game 2: Royal Antwerp vs Gent. Antwerp WIN @2.71. Sportsbet odds: 2.65
100 unit parlay at Betcoin @5.0406. Sportsbet parlay: 4.8495

Odds advantage: 3.94%
Units advantage: 19.11


Note: Sportsbet has no Indonesian league so assuming same odds.

So Indonesia are totally winless, I did back Malaysia at the first leg, but Indonesia were the outright favourites. Thought it would be strange to see 10/1 so maybe their team just isn't as good anymore these days.

Anyway, thin offerings today and I might check in a little later today with a shockingly conservative parlay, if I can get myself up to check some recent form displays of the lower league cup games in England. Will check back in here and edit if so.

OK quickly then:

Game 1: Wycombe Wanderers vs Tranmere Rovers. Wycombe WIN @1.61. Sportsbet odds: 1.59
Game 2: Malmo FF vs Odense BK. Malmo WIN @1.89. Sportsbet odds: 1.86
100 units parlay at Betcoin @3.0429. Sportsbet parlay: 2.9574

Odds advantage: 2.89%
Units advantage: 8.55

That'll teach me for doubling down against the favourites in Euro group stage haha. I know the Euros are fun, but this group stage has been very poor for quality and unpredictability, I would say.

Anyway, shitty odds for shitty selections. How about a good old fashioned upset today in Asian Cup qualifiers?

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Indonesia to WIN vs Malaysia @10.50. Betcoin odds: 9.88

Odds advantage: 6.28%
Units advantage: 62