Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 54. (Read 38849 times)

Everything but the first leg, which we lost 0-3 haha. Thought Qatar's oldest football club might want to start the year with a bang, but instead gifted their opponents a first in since November. Some stories you can't make up I guess. Even Rooney's last min 1st half assist couldn't help!

Anyway, we turn to La Liga, an upset from Leganes and an expected but tight victory for Sevilla.

Game 1: Sevilla-Athletic Bilbao. Sevilla WIN @1.69. Sportsbet odds: 1.66
Game 2: Real Valladolid-Leganes. Leganes WIN @3.18. Sportsbet odds: 3.12
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.3742. Sportsbet parlay: 5.1792

Odds advantage: 3.77%
Units advantage: 19.5

Yikes Everton. Then again, was right on the money about Claudio Bravo not as able, it was his mistake that directly led to Richarlison's goal. Anyway, this just means a City loss is only a couple of games or so away haha (1 in every 5 so far!).

Back to a parlay today, thin selections but let's take a risk:

Game 1: Al Ahli vs Al Arabi. Al Ahli WIN @2.48. Betcoin odds: 2.36
Game 2: Derby vs Barnsley. Over 0.5 Goals at HT @1.38. Betcoin odds: 1.38
Game 3: Swansea vs Charlton. Over 0.5 Goals at HT @1.33. Betcoin odds: 1.34
Game 4: Liverpool vs Sheffield. Liverpool HT WIN @1.77. Betcoin odds: 1.79
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @8.06. Betcoin parlay: 7.8117
Bet ID: 5e0dc59bcdc6f1df4a230466

Odds advantage: 3.18%
Units advantage: 25.83

Tough luck on City, the first game with less than 2.5 goals they've had since losing to Wolves actually haha. Anyway, as promised, we continue to back the underdog against City. Who knows? Everton say they're ready to rumble, they got a new boss who relishes City and Liverpool. And we took a really good odds against City too! Check back later to see if I want to do an EPL parlay. Delicious NY day games!

So without further ado:
100 units at Fairlay on Everton to WIN vs Manchester City @15.052. Betcoin odds: 9.82

Odds advantage: 53.28%
Units advantage: 523.2

We were almost there, weren't we? Palace actually led, and weathered the Saints storm but eventually it was a well-deserved point, Danny Ings is impossible to stop these days, so proud of him.

Anyway, we caught a really good odds single on Sheffield United to day to pour more misery onto City. After the Wolves loss, bookies adjusted City down a lot, but good for us. Gotta keep your eyes on Fairlay for the bets, as it's mainly p2p, people do adjust a bit slower there.

100 units on Blades to WIN at City @15.542. Bitcoinrush odds: 11.59

Odds advantage: 34.09%
Units advantage: 395.2

Let's also add a parlay on Gerrard and co in the Old Firm derby, have Liverpool try and get ahead against a difficult opponent, and sort of try hedge the Blades bet in case City get some revenge and then some:
Game 1: Celtic vs Rangers. Rangers WIN @3.62. Betcoin odds: 3.43
Game 2: Liverpool vs Wolves. Liverpool WIN at HT @1.80. Betcoin odds: 1.81
Game 3: City vs Sheffield. Over 2.5 goals @1.51. Betcoin odds: 1.52
100 units parlay at Sportsbets.io @9.84. Betcoin parlay: 9.4366
Bet ID: 5e0894b3f3240e03bf9f02ba

Odds advantage: 4.27%
Units advantage: 40.34

Football is round, they say. The underdogs go down 2-0 to the defending champions, would you expect a 3-2 comeback? Wonder what the odds were on Wolves to win when they were chasing the deficit, even if I rarely bet live, with 60+% possession and the extra man advantage, I'm surprised the win didn't have a bigger margin!

Anyway, huge win and we break our record for a season gain, but we go again of course;)

I really like the Saints but I can't ignore how good Palace are so an upset away, coupled with the Foxes bouncing back from their back-to-back defeats to the defending Champions leaders.

Game 1: Southampton vs Crystal Palace. Palace WIN @3.94. Betcoin odds: 3.81
Game 2: West Ham vs Leicester. Foxes WIN @1.94. Betcoin odds: 1.95
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @7.64. Betcoin parlay: 7.43
Bet ID: 5e072904986973f18ccc75f9

Odds advantage: 2.83%
Units advantage: 21

Well, Watford almost did it at the death, didn't they? And Deulofeu is really beginning to shine even more than he usually does. I mean, the way he plays down that wing at times, and then switching and being able to score that goal? Deserves it, that kid.

But how about Southampton showing the big boys (or the kids at Chelski) how it's done eh? Massive win for us, and good ol' Liverpool to make sure our parlay doubles its value.

Anyway, in keeping with the December promise, we bet against City and Wolves at over 8/1? That's good value to me for a team that actually beat City at Etihad!

100 units at Fairlay on Wolves to WIN vs Man City @8.161. Sportsbet odds: 7.40

Odds advantage: 6.46%
Units advantage: 76.1

Sorry for the long break but I've been away and rather unable to properly bet. But good news today is we're back on boxing day to kick off an entire week of football-filled joy.

Watford won us the first leg of that incredible parlay, but Mou failed to continue his streak vs former clubs and who could have known Willian would be supremely good in his return? Lost our parlay but happy to get the underdog right.

Shall we see what a similar underdog parlayed with Liverpool at amazing 2/1 value will bring?

Game 1: Chelsea vs Southampton. Saints WIN @8.37. Sportsbet odds: 8.20
Game 2: Leicester City vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @2.09. Sportsbet odds: 2.06
100 units parlay at Betcoin @17.4933. Sportsbet  parlay: 16.892.

Odds advantage: 3.39%
Units advantage: 60.13

Game 1: Sheffield Utd vs Watford. Watford WIN @4.75. Betcoin odds: 4.40
Game 2: Leicester City vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @2.06. Betcoin odds: 2.09
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @9.79. Betcoin parlay: 9.196
BET ID: 5e0103ec9869738191cc2543

Odds advantage: 6.46%
Units advantage: 59.4

Running advantage after 206 bets: +1,505.35 (+119.53)
All-time cumulative: +23,505.88
Running units after 204 bets (36W|168L): +9,057.88 (-100 units)

Didn't watch any of it now but I can't believe how Newcastle still manages to pull out those wins. Maybe guys like Steve Bruce do have a place in the EPL after all. And guys like Mike Ashley will always be glad for that. Be miserly with the purse strings, ensure you find a footing mid table and find a manager who can squeeze wins out of teams like that. Damn.

And Leicester wow, totally outplayed from the stats. Anyway.

Watford, ready to spring a surprise? Spurs, ready for Mourinho to exact his revenge?

Game 1: Watford vs Man Utd. Watford WIN @5.07. Betcoin odds: 4.84
Game 2: Spurs vs Chelsea. Spurs WIN @2.34. Betcoin odds: 2.36
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @11.86. Betcoin parlay: 11.4224
Bet ID: 5dff284a3ae32d34715de5ae

Odds advantage: 3.83%
Units advantage: 43.76

Don't have a very good connection atm, and don't really have the comfort right now to research a proper parlay but let's just do the usual "bet every long odd game against City" selection today shall we? I actually feel today is no lose situation. Draw and both our rivals drop points. Foxes lose and we put more distance between us and 2nd. City lose and we see 17 points difference potentially! Amazing

100 units on Leicester City to WIN vs Manchester City @8.11. Betcoin odds: 7.45

Odds advantage: 8.86%
Units advantage: 66

Well, who would have thought VVD would be ill, and Henderson would play CB? We could still have won 2-0 if we started with Mane and Firmino early, but anyway, this just means I'm doubling down on Liverpool at the final.

May not be betting over next few days, won't really have a proper time to compare and calculate, but let's see shall we?

Simple EPL parlay for Saturday. I like Palace and they deserved to have won, Newcastle on the other hand, have been way too lucky. The tables have to turn. Wolves too, the loss was tough after stringing together an unbeaten run but they'll get back to winning ways with Jimenez sure to get on the scoresheet again.

Game 1: Newcastle United-Crystal Palace. Palace WIN @3.27. Sportsbet odds: 3.20
Game 2: Norwich City-Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves WIN @1.97. Sportsbet odds: 1.94
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.4419. Sportsbet parlay: 6.208

Odds advantage: 3.77%
Units advantage: 23.39

That was a massacre! It was more than expected of course, but to be honest, had we scored on the initial stages when we were more dangerous, I would have to say that could have let pressure and fear creep into Villa. Otherwise, our defence and keeper were clearly Academy quality... and Villa are a top class team!

Not that our other leg fared any better. BVB let a 2-0 lead slip and even Sancho could only restore a leading position for a few minutes. Must be so frustrating to be them right now.

I'm wary of cup games in other leagues today. Great picks if you have time to look at lineups but searching through foreign language news I don't got the time for the coming week so I'm going to start a longish parlay today with Liverpool to beat a really tough Monterrey side by 2 goals, results to settle on Liverpool's next game on Boxing Day!

Game 1: Monterrey vs Liverpool. Liverpool to WIN -2 @2.00. Sportsbet odds: 1.96
Game 2: Leicester City vs Liverpool. Liverpool to WIN @2.22. Sportsbet odds: 2.18
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.44. Sportsbet parlay: 4.2728

Odds advantage: 3.91%
Units advantage: 16.72

Lazio actually laboured to get 2 goals in injury time and get the expected win (nice!) but Palace just can't seem to find a way to convert their attractive football into victories. A draw, exciting but still short of 3 points. Leaves us out in the cold.

Aston Villa will face a U23 Liverpool team today but if Klopp has everyone chomping at the bit to get a place in the squad, could we hope for an upset? I think for sure. And why not make life more difficult by throwing erratic Dortmund into the mix?

Game 1: Aston Villa vs Liverpool. Pool WIN @6.99 (actual 6.60). BEtcoin odds: 6.64
Game 2: BVB vs RB Leipzig. BVB WIN @2.15. Betcoin odds: 2.17
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @15.0285 (actual 14.19). Betcoin parlay: 14.4088
Bet ID: 5df890b1f3240e22aa9dcb07

NOTE: I accidentally bet above at 6.60 odds, but price boost actually put liverpool at 6.99. I forgot to activate it is all. So if we win, I'll put the actual payout achieved... but for here will put the prospective odds advantage. Odds keep dropping though, currently at 6.3x!

Odds advantage: 4.4%
Units advantage: 61.97

Lesson. Don't get excited and throw in last minute bets on mobile when you're on a train and can't really read what's going on. Arsenal were severely poor, and even if Everton got the win, our Gladbach stumbled. Karmaic scales adjusting I suppose!

Shall we go for a really simple England-Italy parlay?

Game 1: Crystal Palace-Brighton & Hove Albion. Palace WIN @2.65. Sportsbet: 2.60
Game 2: Cagliari vs Lazio. Lazio WIN @1.87. Sportsbet: 1.85
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.9555. Sportsbet parlay: 4.81

Odds advantage: 3.02%
Units advantage: 14.55

Well, that was nice. Didn't even need the Bournemouth handicap as it turns out. Knew Chelski were terrible but not that kind of terrible. Lampard was spot on: too slow and too safe. Used to fear Willian but he's looking so out of sorts.

In any case, Fulham expectedly lost, so we lost out parlay.

It's actually pretty weird that we're now looking at bets against City that are not even 10/1 anymore. And this is Arsenal who are surely at time more brittle than United?

Anyway, let's go for a simple Spurs Arsenal parlay:
Game 1: Wolves vs Spurs. Spurs WIN @2.47. Sportsbet odds: 2.43
Game 2: Arsenal vs City. Arsenal WIN @6.33. Sportsbet odds: 6.10
100 units parlay at Betcoin @15.6351. Sportsbet parlay: 14.823

Odds advantage: 5.48%
Units advantage: 81.21

And since we're fond of upsets, shall we pair Everton 5/1 with Gladbach 2/1 for over 10/1? I'll add the betslip here a bit later. On the road now.

Geez, can't even NOT win properly these days, haha. Seriously, feels worse to draw than to lose at times, when the tide is really in your favour. Nevermind, we're still ahead and over 100% in profit by playing every day with a 1% of bankroll. Still a record I hope to keep at the end of the season, but let's see.

Liverpool are against rock bottom Watford and we know we've always stumbled in the past but we have a very different group of players this time around and we'll want to pile the pressure on to Leicester so I'll take a parlay with another Liverpool HT win, mix in a Bournemouth +2 Handicap and a standard Fulham upset at Brentford in the Championship!

Game 1: Liverpool vs Watford. Liverpool WIN HT @1.50. Betcoin odds: 1.52
Game 2: Chelsea vs Bournemouth. Bournemouth +2 @1.74. Betcoin odds: 1.76
Game 3: Brentford vs Fulham. Fulham WIN @3.89. Betcoin odds: 3.71
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @10.15. Betcoin parlay: 9.9249
Bet ID: 5df4b9a6813316364c23aedb

Odds advantage: 2.27%
Units advantage: 22.51

That was a weird one for me. They let in 2 fast goals, then score 2 more of their own, and then give away an own goal, all in the first third of the game. Then no more goals for the rest of the match, almost as if they simply weren't interested anymore.

Anyway, as I thought, a lot of minor upsets last night but too many dangerous draws would have ruined our parlay.

I have a nagging feeling about my parlay tonight but let's see if Hull can keep some away form at bay while Lille and Hoffenheim maintain theirs:

Game 1: Lille-Montpellier. Lille WIN @1.77. Sportsbet odds: 1.75
Game 2: Charlton Athletic-Hull City. Hull WIN @1.96. Sportsbet odds: 1.93
Game 3: Hoffenheim-Augsburg. Hoffenheim WIN @1.86. Sportsbet odds: 1.85
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.4527. Sportsbet parlay: 6.2484

Odds advantage: 3.27%
Units advantage: 20.43

Thank toy JanPriX I'll of course share 1 pic haha. With the Sportsbet team hopefully! And Trofo again, absolutely right I picked the bad upsets. I knew the Spurs side was weakened and I knew Atleti needed to go through but I hoped (and of course was proven wrong) that pressure would make them nervous at home. Was wrong.

City also did NOT win the first half, otherwise the parlay would have saved me... such is the game!

A bit lazy today so I might add a short parlay but for now, struggling Feyenoord to beat struggling Porto?

100 units at Bitcoinrush for Feyenoord to WIN vs Porto @8.66. Betcoin odds: 7.80

Odds advantage: 11.02%
Units advantage: 86

Oh boy, doing work at this time of the month and then suddenly you got a quick vacation/tour coming up this Dec 20, must be hard.  . If you need any help, I can provide some. Especially when it comes to betting. Betting=work LOL

It would be nice if you could take a picture and post it here in the forum when you're actually on the stadium and watching the game. I'm sure it would be an ecstatic moment for you and your partner. Have a safe trip brother.

Big congratulations man, have fun on the trip I am glad it went to one of the regular degenerates loitering in the gambling section and not some "unknown" account.

I love your ticket, I am playing something similar.

However, I really think you missed your upsets tonight. Atletico Madrid needs this one to progress trough and even though they are in a bad patch, they should dispatch Lokomotiv.

I read somewhere that Mou intends to rest a lot of players tonight and I had a feeling that he is afraid to go up against wounded Bayern with his best team. He would probably also lose and that could have much bigger impact on moral than if he losses with some kids from youth school. We shall see.

What a night! We not only booked last night's parlay in a big way, but Ansu Fati's late, late goal won me a trip to the Club World Cup finals to see my beloved Reds, courtesy Sportbet.io!

I added Sportsbet.io to the list of bookies I list here, from several months back. Their daily price boost is usually always enough to make them the best odds on parlays (I believe it's a 7% boost on price or somewhere), since every leg is multiplied by that extra boost essentially! I also don't always mention it but many of the constant promos by them mean I have freebets regularly, so the experience is very +EV. Now of course, to top it off, will fly free to watch Liverpool hopefully add the only trophy missing in their cabinet, as someone put it!

What a night, but back to business. I'm going for 2 major upsets here. Spurs, because Mourinho loves Champions League and he will want to show off with a Bayern scalp, even if it won't change the qualification outcome. Bayern, after losing to Gladbach, on the other hand, will be stinging to win this just for confidence. Both sides are equal to the task, I think the 7/1 is big value, even without Kane and Dele Alli.

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Spurs to WIN vs Bayern Munich @7.64. Betcoin odds: 7.55
Odds advantage: 1.19%
Units advantage: 9

Lokomotiv actually won me a major upset already the very first game when they beat Bayer, but I saw the way they played in the last game and were seriously good, just really unlucky. They don't deserve to be out of Europe, so if they somehow beat Atletico by 2 goals AND Leverkusen lose to Juve, they could still proudly drop to Europa.

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Lokomotiv Moskow to WIN vs Atletico Madrid @27.71. Betcoin odds: 24.43
Odds advantage: 13.43%
Units advantage: 328

And to round off today, let's pick a tricky parlay:
Game 1: Dinamo Zagreb vs Manchester City. City WIN HT @2.09. Betcoin odds: 2.08
Game 2: Leverkusen vs Juventus. Juventus WIN @3.84. Betcoin odds: 3.76
Game 3: Club Brugge vs Real Madrid. Madrid WIN @2.22. Betcoin odds: 2.24
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @17.82. Betcoin parlay: 17.52
Bet ID: 5df0b3cb9257397560419919
Odds advantage: 1.71%
Units advantage: 30

Total units advantage: 367