Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 53. (Read 38849 times)

Terrible letdown from all the favourites. I knew Watford would be resting a lot of players but well done Tranmere ANYWAY. Here's to you going on to beat Man Utd. There's no better time to do it.

With the win at Wolves we push our earlier parlay's 2nd leg, but still turn a tiny profit, so we actually add to our balance after last night. Well done, meself.

Champions of Ireland vs falling giant of Russia, what do you think? It's only a friendly;)

100 units at Sportsbet on Dundalk to WIN vs CSKA Moscow @10.20. Betcoin odds: 9.61
Bet ID: 5e2abf0333d43d4df9164952

Odds advantage: 6.14%
Units advantage: 59 units

Probably the first time I've done 4 winning days in a row (but we should note I put in 7 picks in those 4 days, and I normally put one a day only), but I'm not going to complain about my luck when I've had many >10 day losing streaks!

I'd predicted the only upset of the night in the big leagues, but it was more thanks to United being poor than Burnley being good -- but the complete switch of form I thought would happen is precisely taking place. United have been bad, and Ole is rather to me pushing them to be even more complacent when he praises them on losing games.

Anyway, I've got the second leg of the Liverpool parlay we took on the 19th tonight for a simple 4/1 we will wait to settle that tonight.

Anyway, Sportsbet gives a massive 7% boost to 5-legged parlays and then tops it up with 1% for every additional leg. As it turns out, there are a few great value bets in Copa del Rey tonight, with 3 top division teams playing away to Segunda and Segunda B. I know, even Barca scraped past but that's still expected right?

Same value bet as Watford away in FA Cup against Tranmere Rovers and we top it up with Liverpool!

Game 1: Ebro vs Leganes. Leganes WIN @1.85 Betcoin odds: 1.85
Game 2: Mirandez vs Celta Vigo. Celta WIN @1.85 Betcoin odds: 1.94
Game 3: Badajoz vs Eibar. Eibar WIN @2.00 Betcoin odds: 1.96
Game 4: Tranmere vs Watford. Watford WIN @1.70 Betcoin odds: 1.73
Game 5: Wolves vs Liverpool. Pool WIN @1.68. Betcoin odds: 1.69
100 units parlay at Sportsbet [+7% boost] @20.92. Betcoin parlay:19.51
Bet ID: 5e294dbc523e2c3224924ff3

Odds advantage: 7.23%
Units advantage: 141 units

Arsenal finally showed some teeth with 10 men. I think Chelsea had 11 shots on goal and a few off target -- to Arsenal's 0 attempts, when that crazy solo run by Martinelli equalised. And City of course got Aguero to thank. But Napoli won the game, think Lazio lost their shape as soon as Leiva got sent off, shame.

But AFC picks did as well as could be, so we add on to our winnings!

3 home favourites today, and West Ham, Norwich, Burnley all have the ability to take a win. They were magnificent at Leicester and will want to avenge the 2-0 loss to United, so I think Dyche and co should nick it.

100 units at Fairlay on Burnley to WIN vs Manchester United @8.471. Betcoin odds: 7.82

Odds advantage: 8.32%
Units advantage: 65.1 units

It gives me great pleasure to have won at least 3 bets this season by choosing the bottom-team to beat someone higher up in the table, so I now add SPAL to the great list of Watford (vs United) and Dijon (vs PSG). You guys are the best. Heh. Never discount a desperation to clamber for points against the arrogance of a superior team!

That said, I think I'm going to parlay two favourites today against a minor upset. City and Chelsea to add 3 points tonight, and Lazio to smack down sorry Napoli?

If I lose because of City, I won't mind a bit!

Game 1: Sheffield United vs Manchester City. City WIN @1.44. Sportsbet odds: 1.40
Game 2: Chelsea vs Arsenal. Chelsea WIN @1.78. Sportsbet odds: 1.76
Game 3: Napoli vs Lazio. Lazio WIN @2.73. Sportsbet odds: 2.63
100 unit parlay at Betcoin @6.9975. Sportsbet parlay: 6.4803

Odds advantage: 7.98%
Units advantage: 51.72 units

And if you like AFC Champs League, we've got the Tajik champs as underdogs to Uzbek runner's up... so value bet all around. Pair with a certain Aussie victory:
Game 1: Lokomotiv Tashkent-FK Istiklol. Istiklol WIN @7.08. Sportsbet: 6.80
Game 2: Melbourne Victory FC-Bali United FC. Melbourne WIN @1.22. Sportsbet 1.22
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.6376. Sportsbet parlay: 8.296

Odds advantage: 4.12%
Units advantage: 34.16 units

Jesus Berlin were murdered in that second half blitzkrieg by Bayern. I suppose my comfort is that had I picked any of the other underdogs last night, they all lost by a goal to the league favourites (Parma 2-1 to Juve, Lorient 0-1 to PSG and Granada 0-1 to Barca). But the discomfort is I picked the one that lost 0-4 haha.

Anyway, incredible breakaway goal from Salah keeps my long parlay alive, and booked us a solid 5/1 win last night. Thanks also to the Asians of U23 who made short work of the Arabs!

I've got a thing for bottom teams fighting for survival and we saw in the Coppa that SPAL can still bite back so can we look for an upset tonight in Serie A?

100 units on Sportsbet.io on SPAL to WIN vs Atalanta @14.91. Betcoin odds: 14.05
Bet ID: 5e25686b2d989e28abb84d56

Odds advantage: 6.12%
Units advantage: 86 units

Now that's what I call a night of bloody upsets! I'll now edit yesterday's post now to show the right numbers and units, 2 wins out of 3 remind me why we love the underdogs, 1 94th minute winner, we lost the Palace bet but it was another injury time winner to peg City back even more, so I love it anyway!

Tonight, shall we start a long parlay that settles with Wolves 4 nights later first?

Game 1: Manchester United at Liverpool WIN -1.25 @2.02. Sportsbet odds: 1.92
Game 2: Wolves vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN -1 @2.0. Sportsbet odds: 1.98
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.04. Sportsbet parlay: 3.80

Odds advantage: 6.32%
Units advantage: 24 units

We'll look for another Liverpool parlay in a bit, but first, let's also go for a shock Bayern loss in Bundesliga as new manager Klinsmann at Hertha tries to put the German capital on the map. Leipzig will want it to happen too, and while I don't want RB to win Bundesliga, I would like Bayern to not get it either. So:

100 units on Hertha Berlin to WIN vs Bayern Munich @9.10. Sportsbet odds: 8.80.

Odds advantage: 3.41%
Units advantage: 30 units

And the 5/1 Pool parlay with U23s, catch em while live - unit advantages added in a bit!
Game 1: Liverpool FC-Manchester United. Pool WIN @1.48   OPEN. Sportsbet odds: 1.40
Game 2: Korea Republic-Jordan. SK WIN @1.56. Sportsbet odds: 1.49
Game 3: United Arab Emirates-Uzbekistan. Uzbek WIN@ 2.30. Sportsbet odds: 2.20
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.3102. Sportsbet parlay @4.5892

Odds advantage: 15.71%
Units advantage: 72.1 units

Horrendous draws killed our legs, but it was anyway tough away games to negotiate, hence the value in the bets. That's what I tell myself anyway haha. So we fall down quite far from our 5-digit unit count, but that's perfectly all right for us.

Thank god for the Prem League, I've got quite a few parlays I'll want to look at later, and of course we want Palace to win, haha. But also we think Newcastle have a shot at this at home to Chelsea, who will want to go a month without losing but won't =p

100 units at Sportsbet.io on Newcastle to WIN vs Chelsea @6.78. Betcoin odds: 6.40
Bet ID: 5e22ccf4cfd70721746afa02
Odds advantage: 5.93%
Units advantage: 38 units

Will update here with maybe an additional bet or two or three.

2 more underdogs, please, 100 units each:
Palace to WIN vs Man City @27.5. Betcoin odds: 25.6
Odds advantage: 7.42%
Units advantage: 190 units

Fiorentina to WIN vs Napoli @5.53. Sportsbet odds: 5.20
Odds advantage: 6.35%
Units advantage: 33 units

Total unit advantage: +261
I'll come in and edit post tomorrow to show odds and unit advantages.

Damn you Mata. Good goal though, but it's tough to keep watching exciting teams like Wolves play and still lose. That Traore is a beast, so scary seeing him and I'll never forget him dispossessing Mendy...

Right then, cup games are killing me all over the place, so I'm now going to go for away victories to the somewhat favourites. Enough of underdog action, right?

Game 1: Parma vs Roma. Roma WIN @1.91. Sportsbet odds: 1.86
Game 2: PAU vs Bordeaux. Bordeaux WIN @1.81. Sportsbet odds: 1.79
Game 3: Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens. Athens WIN @1.89. Sportsbet odds: 1.87
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.5339. Sportsbet parlay: 6.2259

Odds advantage: 4.95%
Units advantage: 30.8 units

Just can't catch a break! Watford cancelled but our big leg folded anyway. Have we had enough of underdogs in FA Cup? Nay, not so soon. Wolves, you've shown everyone a good time, why not show Ole the door out of FA Cup?

Game 1: Man Utd vs Wolves. Wolves WIN @4.79. Sportsbet odds: 4.65
Game 2: Carlisle vs Cardiff. Cardiff WIN @1.57. Sportsbet odds: 1.55
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.5203. Sportsbet parlay: 7.2075

Odds advantage: 4.34%
Units advantage: 31.28 units

Crapped out on both legs, thin selections today but with Watford in such blistering form (notwithstanding that they let a 3-0 lead come to today's replay!) it should be simple to bet on them again.

But what's this? We got a League One matchup that is begging for an upset, but will require both teams to throw form out the window. Bristol are ravaged by injury and bad luck to first choice keeper, but they romped 2-2 last time around so why not go for it?

Game 1: Coventry vs Bristol Rovers. Bristol WIN @8.56. Sportsbet odds: 8.10
Game 2: Tranmere vs Watford. Watford WIN @1.53. Sportsbet odds: 1.50
100 units parlay at Betcoin @13.10. Sportsbet parlay: 12.15

Odds advantage: 9.79%
Units advantage: 95 units

Christ bloody hell. Emotional bet on Monaco didn't pan out, but got to say, PSG were super lucky to clamber themselves out of that one. Their first draw of the season but Monaco probably just about deserved to have won that. Also, had no idea Islam Slimani was loaned out to Monaco. What about that third goal to equalise eh?

Israel's unbeaten look like the only "sure" thing today though value's not so great. Parlay this with an upset in Ligue 2
Game 1: MAccabi Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem. Tel Aviv WIN @1.81. Betcoin odds: 1.82
Game 2: Lorient vs Caen. Caen WIN @6.14 Betcoin odds: 6.00
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @11.11. Betcoin parlay: 10.92
Bet ID: 5e1c88a7cfd707cc206a8117

Odds advantage: 1.74%
Units advantage: 19 units

OK big ouch as our profits took a hit from 11k to now below 10k, but hey, we know streaks like these happen when we go big. Liverpool won last night, for example, but Palace for some reason couldn't overcome Arsenal's ten men.

I know I only promised bets against City in December but with Aston Villa ravaged by injury, could we perhaps see a different reaction from hungry second-stringers and a City confused by youth?

100 units at Sportsbet on Aston Villa to WIN vs Manchester City @14.91. Betcoin odds: 14.30
Bet ID: 5e1873949dcc2821c15d235e

Damn Villa got hammered. Shall we quickly double down on another underdog? Former greats Monaco maybe to win?
100 units at Fairlay on Monaco to WIN vs PSG @10.91. Betcoin odds: 9.80.

I'll do the numbers in the morning!

Odds advantage: 4.27%
Units advantage: 61 units

Goddamn it we were almost there! Leading for most of the game, then conceding, and still with plenty of chances but the last-gasp goal from the favorites boo.

EPL today have quite a few people looking like they'll cause upsets, but let's have a wait for lineups. I'm going to start, however, with Arsenal to fall to Palace. Lost a lot of bets on Palace but they keep playing well and they'll get a famous win. Parlay with Liverpool, shall we?

Game 1: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal. Palace WIN @4.12. Sportsbet odds: 4.08
Game 2: Tottenham Hotspurs vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.71. Sportsbet odds: 1.70
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.0452. Sportsbet parlay: 6.936

Odds advantage: 1.57%
Units advantage: 10.92 units

That was pretty dumb. Torino actually had to fight pretty hard to get the draw, and then they tired themselves out to go through with extra time. All that Atletico drama to win for nothing, but that's how parlays go, isn't it?

OK, now let's put this super underdog bet in the Dutch 2nd-tier league. Now Graafschap are 3rd and have only lost once all season so far, but the youth from Utrecht actually should be higher up the table, and will be desperate to get into positive goal margin so they will want to go for the throats!

100 units at Betcoin on Jong Utrecht to WIN vs Graafschap @16.34. Sportsbet odds: 14.88

Odds advantage: 9.81%
Units advantage: 146 units

Valencia did end up surprising everyone, but not in the manner I had hoped for. Crazy how disjointed teams look after winter break, and then in cup games too. Leicester even had to labour for the draw. Please let it be Leicester and United through to the finals =p You want another winner's medal, don't you Vardy?

My first bet in a long time against Barca (no need to ask when the last time was haha cough Anfield)

Game 1: Barcelona-Atletico Madrid. Atleti WIN @4.08. Sportsbet odds: 3.91
Game 2: Torino-Genoa. Torino WIN @1.63. Sportsbet odds: 1.60
Game 3: Sweden-Moldova. Sweden WIN @1.31. Sportsbet odds: 1.31
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.7120. Sportsbet parlay: 8.1953

Odds advantage: 6.30%
Units advantage: 51.67

I got this so wrong. City, as expected, coasted through, but MK Dons were 3-0 down at half time and just never found a way back. Reims did progress, but they needed penalties to decide the tie.

My simple parlay today, Leicester to win the first leg (and please, progress cause only you got a hope of defeating City at the final). And then a Valencia upset to pour water on Real Madrid.

Game 1: Leicester vs Villa. Leicester WIN @1.75. Betcoin odds: 1.78
Game 2: Valencia vs Real Madrid. Valencia WIN @4.10. Betcoin odds: 3.95
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @7.18. Betcoin parlay: 7.031
Bet ID: 5e1588819869733473cd827e

Odds advantage: 2.12%
Units advantage: 14.9

Oh damn me. Arsenal did win, but they laboured in the first half and probably should have been a goal down at least at HT. Should have made a FT bet, but the 1.9x odds made me blink I guess. Lukaku doing himself justice in Serie A though, I think we can safely say goodbye to Napoli's bid this season. They are not coming back from this loss.

Parlay on cup games is the call of the day. This time, United only 4/1 to beat City? I took it at 10/1 but this is poor value so the Sky Blues get my pick today.

Game 1: Newport County AFC-Milton Keynes Dons. MK Dons WIN @2.44. Sportsbet odds: 2.38
Game 2: Manchester United-Manchester City. City WIN @1.65. Sportbet odds: 1.64
Game 3: Stade De Reims-RC Strasbourg Alsace. Reims WIN @2.29. Sportsbet odds: 2.30
100 units parlay at Betcoin @9.2195. Sportsbet parlay: 8.9773

Odds advantage: 2.70%
Units advantage: 24.22

Funny night, we had to screw ourselves with Palace of course, didn't we? Consolation I suppose is that we didn't pick Spurs who only managed to draw with good old Boro.

At this rate, better off just parlaying Liverpool wins, no matter the competition;)

But let's see. Arsenal Leeds is smelling like an upset, but in any case, Arsenal should win the first half, so let's parlay that with an Inter win at Napoli tonight.

Game 1: Arsenal vs Leeds. Arsenal WIN HT @1.90. Betcoin odds: 1.88
Game 2: Napoli vs Inter Milan. Inter WIN @2.65. Betcoin odds: 2.64
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @5.04. Betcoin parlay: 4.9632
Bet ID: 5e12e7f13ae32d2de65f33b3

Odds advantage: 1.55%
Units advantage: 7.68

Well THAT totally settled before Liverpool's FA Cup derby, haha!

Liverpool not the favourites today, but that's because we're fielding young ones, but heck they're hungry, we'll win!
Game 1: Liverpool vs Everton. Liverpool WIN @2.76. Sportsbet: 2.70
Game 2:  Crystal Palace-Derby County. Palace WIN @1.77. Sportsbet odds: 1.75
Game 3: Gillingham FC-West Ham United. West Ham WIN @1.54. Sportsbet odds: 1.52
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.5232. Sportsbet parlay: 7.182

Odds advantage: 4.75%
Units advantage: 34.12

Leganes almost won, but almost doesn't count. Sevilla anyway almost lost too, they had the own goal to thank for the point. Looks like La Liga boys just needed a couple more days to wake up from their winter slumber. Wonder if the English will have the same after they get their holidays in.

Anyway, FA Cup, lots of games and I'm considering a few upsets or parlays, so maybe will update this thread every so often as and when and if odds spike. Newcastle never made it out of this round but I have a good feels about them this time... or do I? And maybe with 2nd-string teams, some of the big boys might make shock exits?

So a parlay today is necessary, but to settle tomorrow with the Merseyside derby.

Game 1: Rochdale vs Newcastle. Newcastle WIN @1.78. Betcoin odds: 1.72
Game 2: Fulham vs Aston Villa. Villa WIN @3.41. Betcoin odds: 3.23
Game 3: Liverpool vs Everton. Liverpool WIN @2.10. Betcoin odds: 2.17
100 units parlay at Sportsbet.io @12.75. Betcoin parlay: 12.06

Odds advantage: 3.77%
Units advantage: 69