Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 73.

buwaytress

legendary

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Took an extra bet last night (12/1 for Schalke and we almost but for 5 minutes!) but was too lazy to update then, so couldn't get the odds advantage so we'll let it slide and let's just assume all bookies were on even odds - and I know they weren't!.

Europa's not been a fertile field for me so far, but I'll take a risk on Dynamo Kiev and Villareal, and back the parlay up with expected Leverkusen and Betis wins.

Game 1: Bayer Leverkusen-FC Krasnodar. Leverkusen [email protected]. BCR odds: 1.43
Game 2: Real Betis Balompie-FC Stade Rennes. Betis WIN @1.64. BCR odds: 1.62
Game 3: Dynamo Kiev-Olympiacos Piraeus. Kiev WIN @2.26. BCR odds: 2.28
Game 4: Villarreal-Sporting CP. Villa WIN @1.96. BCR odds: 1.97
100 units parlay at Betcoin @10.61. BCR parlay: 10.452

Odds advantage: 1.44%
Units advantage: 15.8

Running advantage after 200 bets: +4,425.39 (+15.8 units)

Running units after 199 bets (48W|149L): +1,608.5 (-200 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Bayern played like absolute underdogs wanting a draw so they could play at home. Slightly worrying as Liverpool haven't done well on travels at all this campaign, but on the basis of last night's performance, I think the Germans should be the ones concerned. Same goes for Barca. We'll see them next week.

I really like Athletico, but I think the odds on Juventus are too hard to ignore. I'll parlay that with Sevilla to triumph at home against Lazio in Europa, seeing as they just lost 0-3 to Villareal, perhaps they're conserving for this.

We'll keep checking back to see Schalke... if the odds climb, it'll be interesting. Fairlay 100 units @12.38. Edit odds and units later.

Game 1: Athletico Madrid vs Juventus. Juve WIN @2.86. Betcoin: 2.8
Game 2: Sevilla vs Lazio. Sevilla WIN @1.76. Betcoin: 1.76
100 units at Bitcoinrush @5.0432. Betcoin parlay: 4.928

Odds advantage: 2.34%
Units advantage: 11.52

Running advantage after 198 bets: +4,409.59 (+11.52 units)

Running units after 197 bets (48W|147L): +1,808.5 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Good thing our hedged bet on the underdog (Manchester United, with all that talent on display were the underdogs?!) worked out, cause Dortmund couldn't get the win our parlay would have needed anyway!

Still, won't sniff at good wins that take us back to touching distance of 2k units in profit.

I like both Barcelona and Liverpool, they both face no small opponents but I think have the greater attacking threats. Parlay that with what should be a certain victory for CSKA Moscow against Segunda B minnows Cartagena.

Game 1: Liverpool vs Bayern Munich. Liverpool WIN @2.13. Betcoin: 2.11
Game 2: Lyon vs Barcelona. Barca WIN @1.78. Betcoin: 1.79
Game 3: Cartagena vs CSKA Moscow. CSKA WIN @1.36. Betcoin: 1.35
100 unit parlay at Bitcoinrush @5.1539. Betcoin parlay:5.0988

Odds advantage: 1.08%
Units advantage: 5.51

Running advantage after 197 bets: +4,398.07 (+5.51 units)

Running units after 196 bets (48W|146L): +1,908.5 (+203.38 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Mighty strange day in the La Liga. Real played Jekyll and Hyde to lose their 7th league game of the season, as Ramos collected his 25th red of his career. And then high-flying Sevilla get super-thumped by 17th-placed Villareal. Guess the bookies knew the odds better than I did.

No point getting stuck. We turn to the favourites again tonight in the form of Dortmund and Roma, and use them to pad up tonight's FA Cup clash of giants, with both managers fighting for their jobs, Sarri is the one more motivated to win, so we back Chelsea.

Game 1: Chelsea vs Manchester United. Chelsea WIN @1.96. BCR: 1.97
Game 2: Nuremberg vs Borussia Dortmund. Dortmund WIN @1.43. Bitcoinrush: 1.41.
Game 3: Roma vs Bologna. Roma WIN @1.43. BCR: 1.41
100 unit parlay at Betcoin @4.008. BCR parlay: 3.941

Odds advantage: 1.7%
Units advantage: 6.7

We take a rare hedge tonight, on a United upset @4.0338 on Fairlay. Betcoin odds: 3.96

Odds advantage: 1.86%
Units advantage: 7.38

Total Units advantage: 14.08

Running advantage after 196 bets: +4,392.56 (+14.08 units)

Running units after 194 bets (47W|145L): +1,705.12 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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This is getting so annoying, but just shows why parlays are so hard to win. Two legs won 3-0 comfortably, but the easiest of the bunch didn't as Schalke got themselves an early red card and just couldn't play any more attacks to their strikers. Bad luck?

We'll back the two Premiership teams in the FA Cup today, even though they're playing away... surely not another upset on the cards? But I'll keep watching the odds and if any of the home teams jump more than 1x, I'll probably put a hedge bet.

Sevilla look like good value playing away to Villareal, who probably will be boosted by their Europa win but are still rooted in relegation zone. So they kick off the parlay.

Game 1: Villareal vs Sevilla. Sevilla WIN @2.84. Betcoin: 2.82
Game 2: Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves WIN @1.98. Betcoin: 1.98
Game 3: Doncaster vs Crystal Palace. Palace WIN @1.7. Betcoin: 1.69
100 unit parlay at Bitcoinrush @9.5574. BEtcoin parlay: 9.44

Odds advantage: 1.24%
Units advantage: 11.74

Running advantage after 194 bets: +4,378.48 (+11.74 units)

Running units after 193 bets (47W|144L): +1,805.12 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Won two legs comfortably but if I had to be honest, the La Liga leg was lost with half an hour to go. Yes, Eibar scrambled back 2 goals to draw, but when 1 goal is a penalty you know you've used up your luck.

Bundesliga and La Liga are where our parlays are, but check back later tonight if you want to see a possible underdog pick, just waiting for values to go up;)

Game 1: Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05. Wolfsburg WIN @1.81. Betcoin: 1.78
Game 2: Schalke 04 vs Freiburg. Schalke wiN @1.79. Betcoin: 1.78
Game 3: Real Sociedad vs Leganes. Sociedad WIN @2.12. Betcoin: 2.10
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @6.8691. Betcoin parlay: 6.65

Odds advantage: 3.29%
Units advantage: 21.91

Running advantage after 193 bets: +4,366.74 (+21.91 units)

Running units after 192 bets (47W|145L): +1,905.12 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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If only we backed all the Spanish teams last night, the way my heart was telling me to! As it is, our easiest and hardest legs of 4 failed.

We'll parlay La Liga, Ligue 1 and Turkish Super Lig. Should be very tight games for all of them, but who wants to draw on Friday night, right?

Game 1: Eibar vs Getafe. Eibar WIN @2.06. Betcoin: 2.03
Game 2: Nimes Olympique vs Dijon. Olympique WIN @1.89. Betcoin: 1.86
Game 3: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Besiktas. Besiktas WIN @2.02. Betcoin: 2.01
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @7.8766. Betcoin parlay: 7.59

Odds advantage: 3.78%
Units advantage: 28.66

Running advantage after 192 bets: +4,344.83 (+28.66 units)

Running units after 191 bets (47W|144L): +2,005.12 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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The favourites won. But at half time, things actually did look rosy for the underdogs: Ajax had more shots on target, higher possession and even a disallowed goal. Spurs couldn't register any shots on goal while Dortmund had 4.

As it turns out, both lesser teams lost their momentum in the second half.

Europa is where our heart is tonight, and we'll back 4 away favourites to continue their splendid runs in Europa League.

Game 1: FC Krasnodar-Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Leverkusen WIN @2.05. BCR odds: 2.04
Game 2: FC Zurich-SSC Napoli. Napoli WIN @1.46. BCR odds: 1.45
Game 3: Malmo FF-Chelsea FC. Chelsea WIN @1.44. BCR odds: 1.42
Game 4: BATE Borisov-Arsenal FC. Arsenal WIN @1.39. BCR odds: 1.38
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.9907. BCR parlay: 5.796

Odds advantage: 3.36%
Units advantage: 19.47

Running advantage after 191 bets: +4,316.17 (+19.47 units)

Running units after 190 bets (47W|143L): +2,105.12 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Finally, Champs League and Europa to light up my life. I was waiting for PSG to go to 4/1 but it never happened, or we would have had a nice underdog win. Adding PSG to the parlay would have taken it to 16/1, but I generally stick to about 10/1 max. Silly me, huh.

Anyway, good wins, let's look to repeat the feat tonight, and this time we'll back both underdogs to win. Dortmund have been in a somewhat niggly patch of form while Spurs have been grinding out the wins courtesy of Son, but I like the odds of the current German leaders beating the current 3rd placed English team.

Similarly, I like the Dutch leaders who have been really giving good CL performances so far especially at home, to beat Real, even with the latter's mproving form.

Game 1: Tottenham Hotspurs vs Borussia Dortmund. Dortmund WIN @3.53. Betcoin odds: 3.46
Game 2: Ajax Amsterdam vs Real Madrid. Ajax WIN @3.71. Betcoin odds: 3.61
100 unit parlay at Bitcoinrush @13.0963. Betcoin parlay: 12.49

Odds advantage: 4.85%
Units advantage: 60.63

Running advantage after 190 bets: +4,296.7 (+60.63 units)

Running units after 189 bets (47W|142L): +2,205.12 (+432.95 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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What happens when your opponents lose a CB to a red card playing away? They close down and you break them down for the goal. Except Setubal did that too late, and we end up with another goalless draw to ruin our parlay.

Champions League is back, that's where our money will be, plus a leg in the Europa League. Also, I'll return later if I see any of the odds jump above 4/1 on any one of the team for an upset.

Game 1: Roma vs Porto. Roma WIN @2.09. Betcoin odds: 2.07
Game 2: Fenerbahce vs Zenit St Petersburg. Fenerbahce WIN @2.55. Betcoin odds: 2.53
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @5.3295. Betcoin parlay: 5.24

Odds advantage: 1.71%
Units advantage: 8.95

Running advantage after 189 bets: +4,236.07 (+8.95 units)

Running units after 188 bets (46W|142L): +1,772.17 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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That was the worst underdog pick I've made not just in this thread history, but in my entire betting history... never picked anyone that lost by such a huge margin. Chelsea losing 6-0 tells me more about how bad the team is, more than about how good City are, even if the stats seem to show it wasn't as one-sided as the scoreline suggested.

La Liga and Portugal's Primeira gives us the sole games to parlay. We'll back the home teams to spring victories.

Game 1: Alaves vs Levante. Alaves WIN @2.13. Betcoin odds:2.12
Game 2: Vittoria Setubal vs Belenenses. Setubal WIN @2.28. Betcoin: 2.25
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.8564. Betcoin parlay 4.77

Odds advantage: 1.81%
Units advantage: 8.64

Running advantage after 188 bets: +4,227.12 (+8.64 units)

Running units after 187 bets (46W|141L): +1,872.17 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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What a way to lose, nice to see Cardiff get their last minute goal to win. Saints were horrendously exciting, I saw some highlights, but there hasn't been an easier Anfield win for weeks, so I'll take this on the chin.

One underdog game today: Chelsea to win by a slim goal @ Bitcoinrush @7.12. Betcoin odds: 6.62

Odds advantage: 7.55%
Units advantage: 50

Running advantage after 187 bets: +4,218.48 (+50 units)

Running units after 186 bets (46W|140L): +1,972.17 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Premier League action tonight and I am betting on the results I want, rather than what my predictions may be if I'm using my head. Let's see if that brings up any luck. Liverpool's just the padding @1.2 but Cardiff can't win and I'll hope West Ham pay the price for trying so hard for the draw (and getting it) against Liverpool.

Game 1: Liverpool vs AFC Bournemouth. Liverpool WIN @1.2. Betcoin: 1.21
Game 2: Crystal Palace vs West Ham. Palace WIN @2.16. Betcoin: 2.10
Game 3: Southampton vs Cardiff City. Saints WIN @1.78. Betcoin: 1.77
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.603. Betcoin parlay: 4.5

Odds advantage: 2.16%
Units advantage: 10.3

Running advantage after 186 bets: +4,168.48 (+10.3 units)

Running units after 185 bets (46W|139L): +2,072.17 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Valencia had an incredible fightback, and but for a shot or two that went astray, we might have bagged this parlay. Feels only slightly better we took the underdog in a draw, but I'm liking how we're missing so many parlays in a row so narrowly.

How about the slight favourites away victory at La Liga, against an expected away win at Bundesliga?

Game 1: Valladolid vs Villareal. Villareal WIN @2.49. BCR odds: 2.47
Game 2: Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen. Leverkusen [email protected]. BCR odds: 1.90
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.731. BCR parlay @4.695

Note: bookie acting up again, will add link here later.

Odds advantage: 0.75%
Units advantage: 3.6

Running advantage after 185 bets: +4,158.18 (+3.6 units)

Running units after 184 bets (46W|138L): +2,172.17 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Ouf damn you Real, after losing a string of Clasicos, you find a way to turn up at Camp Nou. I thought a last min inclusion of Messi was a portent of things to come but he started on the bench.

Tonight, we back the underdog Valencia to shine away at Betis, plus Lyon to smash 2 or 3 past Guingamp.

Game 1: Guingamp vs Lyon. Lyon WIN @1.66. BCR odds: 1.64
Game 2: Real Betis vs Valencia. Valencia WIN @2.91. BCR odds: 2.89
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.8306. BCR parlay: 4.7396

Odds advantage: 1.92%
Units advantage: 9.1

Running advantage after 184 bets: +4,154.58 (+9.1 units)

Running units after 183 bets (46W|137L): +2,272.17 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Not good. Another FA Cup upset, I wonder if the underdog luck will run out early though. Pity I didn't pick any of them, odds weren't so great to sniff at though.

Classico is hard to ignore. Barca have been too strong for Real in several meetings now, and with Ronaldo gone, it should be another solid win. We'll pad that up with a Russian friendly win and a Leipzig cup win.

Game 1: Barcelona vs Real Madrid. Barca WIN @1.73 Betcoin: 1.70
Game 2: CSKA Moscow vs Odds BK. Moskow WIN @1.53 Betcoin: 1.50
Game 3: RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg. Leipzig WIN @1.79 Betcoin: 1.81

100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.7106. Betcoin parlay: 4.70

Odds advantage: 0.23%
Units advantage: 1.06

Running advantage after 183 bets: +4,145.48 (+1.06 units)

Running units after 182 bets (46W|136L): +2,372.17 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Way to go Liverpool, the smallest odds on the leg and the only one that failed (every other leg won by solitary goal). Can't seem to get unstuck from our back... as much as I hate to say it, seems we really miss Lovren after all, and Trent back from injury can't come to soon.

Anyway, that's life. We go again. We pick another tough friendly for a Ukrainian team, and then we pick the same guys who lost us our bets in the FA Cup (yeah, you guys playing in upper leagues!).

Game 1: Dynamo Kiev vs Ostersunds. Kiev WIN @1.93. BCR odds: 1.95
Game 2: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Shrewsbury. Wolves WIN @1.21. BCR odds: 1.17
Game 3: Newport County vs Middlesbrough. Boro WIN @1.91. BCR odds: 1.9
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.4604. BCR parlay: 4.34

Odds advantage: 2.77
Units advantage: 12.04

Running advantage after 182 bets: +4,144.42 (+12.04 units)

Running units after 181 bets (46W|135L): +2,472.17 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Arsenal, you just know how to shoot yourselves in the foot. Don't you want another St Totteringham Day again this year? Anyway, least you prevented more than 2 GD for Citeh. Aguero's 11th hattrick though?

We've got the Reds at West Ham today. We'll do an away parlay with the Georgian top dog friendly, and both Serie A games, Lazio and Atalanta will fancy a win right after knocking out giants in the Coppa.

Game 1: West Ham vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.37. BCR odds: 1.37
Game 2: Wit Georgia vs Gagra. Tblisi WIN @1.83. BCR odds none, consider even: 1.83
Game 3: Cagliari vs Atalanta. Atalanta WIN @1.67. BCR odds. 1.66
Game 4: Frosinone vs Lazio. Lazio WIN @1.43. BCR odds: 1.42
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.9872. BCR parlay: 5.9097

Odds advantage: 1.31
Units advantage: 7.75

Running advantage after 181 bets: +4,132.38 (+7.75 units)

Running units after 180 bets (46W|134L): +2,572.17 (-100 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Oh but the margins that make a difference in football! Moscow took the lead twice, went behind twice and then no one wanted to score for over 30 mins, so we lost the parlay. Shame as Wolves gave us a really good 3/1 away win.

Son returning from Asia Cup is such a boon, rescued Spurs twice in a row now even without playing to his peak. Why Rafa didn't play his new player I don't know.

But we have 1 bet for today: Arsenal vs City. I'll remember that city lost to Leicester immediately after losing to Palace, and Arsenal are worthy opponents... only problem is how brittle they are against a big side. But I have faith in Emery and Auba, plus the odds are incredible.

100 units on Arsenal to WIN vs Man City @9.3618, Competitor odds: 8.9870 (Refer to note below).

Note: this was yesterday's odds. Today, odds on Fairlay are 10.7293, Betcoin: 10.3. But since I took the early bet I won't double down. We will use the odd comparisons of today though, and assume the same percentage.
Odds advantage: 4.17
Units advantage: 37.48

Running advantage after 180 bets: +4,124.63 (+37.48 units)

Running units after 179 bets (46W|133L): +2,672.17 (-200 units)

buwaytress

legendary

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Qatar have been a boon the whole AFC Asian Cup competition, bookies rated them the underdogs in all but 1 game as I recall, yet they've been winning with quite a bit of verve despite having less possession and fewer shots than more illustrious opponents, as in yesterday's final. Solid win, also to cash in my Qatar outright (but we won't add that here as it wasn't recorded earlier!).

Tricky Premier League games so I'm just going to back another Wolves win, away at Everton. Jimenez broke Chicarito's record last game, and I'm sure he'll be crucial again today, if not bag another himself. We'll parlay it with what should be easy friendly wins for USA and CSKA Moscow.

Game 1: Everton vs Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves WIN @2.99. BCR odds: 3.03
Game 2: USA vs Costa Rica. USA WIN @1.58. BCR odds: 1.52
Game 3: CSKA Moscow vs Sarpsborg 08. CSKA WIN @1.64. No odds, assume same.
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.7476. BCR parlay: 7.5531
Odds advantage: 2.58%
Units advantage: 19.45

Newcastle also won us an incredible game just this week, so can we count on them to defeat a flimsy Spurs team at Wembley? I say yes to this underdog!
100 units on Fairlay for Newcastle to WIN @9.5615. Betcoin odds: 8.29. BCR odds: 9.23
Odds advantage: 3.59
Units advantage: 33.15

Running advantage after 179 bets: +4,087.15 (+52.6 units)

Running units after 177 bets (46W|131L): +2,872.17 (+383 units)

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 73. (Read 40042 times)