Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 71. (Read 38849 times)

Premier League action tonight and I am betting on the results I want, rather than what my predictions may be if I'm using my head. Let's see if that brings up any luck. Liverpool's just the padding @1.2 but Cardiff can't win and I'll hope West Ham pay the price for trying so hard for the draw (and getting it) against Liverpool.

Game 1: Liverpool vs AFC Bournemouth. Liverpool WIN @1.2. Betcoin: 1.21
Game 2: Crystal Palace vs West Ham. Palace WIN @2.16. Betcoin: 2.10
Game 3: Southampton vs Cardiff City. Saints WIN @1.78. Betcoin: 1.77
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.603. Betcoin parlay: 4.5

Odds advantage: 2.16%
Units advantage: 10.3

Valencia had an incredible fightback, and but for a shot or two that went astray, we might have bagged this parlay. Feels only slightly better we took the underdog in a draw, but I'm liking how we're missing so many parlays in a row so narrowly.

How about the slight favourites away victory at La Liga, against an expected away win at Bundesliga?

Game 1: Valladolid vs Villareal. Villareal WIN @2.49. BCR odds: 2.47
Game 2: Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen. Leverkusen [email protected]. BCR odds: 1.90
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.731. BCR parlay @4.695

Note: bookie acting up again, will add link here later.

Odds advantage: 0.75%
Units advantage: 3.6

Ouf damn you Real, after losing a string of Clasicos, you find a way to turn up at Camp Nou. I thought a last min inclusion of Messi was a portent of things to come but he started on the bench.

Tonight, we back the underdog Valencia to shine away at Betis, plus Lyon to smash 2 or 3 past Guingamp.

Game 1: Guingamp vs Lyon. Lyon WIN @1.66. BCR odds: 1.64
Game 2: Real Betis vs Valencia. Valencia WIN @2.91. BCR odds: 2.89
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.8306. BCR parlay: 4.7396

Odds advantage: 1.92%
Units advantage: 9.1

Not good. Another FA Cup upset, I wonder if the underdog luck will run out early though. Pity I didn't pick any of them, odds weren't so great to sniff at though.

Classico is hard to ignore. Barca have been too strong for Real in several meetings now, and with Ronaldo gone, it should be another solid win. We'll pad that up with a Russian friendly win and a Leipzig cup win.

Game 1: Barcelona vs Real Madrid. Barca WIN @1.73 Betcoin: 1.70
Game 2: CSKA Moscow vs Odds BK. Moskow WIN @1.53 Betcoin: 1.50
Game 3: RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg. Leipzig WIN @1.79 Betcoin: 1.81

100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.7106. Betcoin parlay: 4.70

Odds advantage: 0.23%
Units advantage: 1.06

Way to go Liverpool, the smallest odds on the leg and the only one that failed (every other leg won by solitary goal). Can't seem to get unstuck from our back... as much as I hate to say it, seems we really miss Lovren after all, and Trent back from injury can't come to soon.

Anyway, that's life. We go again. We pick another tough friendly for a Ukrainian team, and then we pick the same guys who lost us our bets in the FA Cup (yeah, you guys playing in upper leagues!).

Game 1: Dynamo Kiev vs Ostersunds. Kiev WIN @1.93. BCR odds: 1.95
Game 2: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Shrewsbury. Wolves WIN @1.21. BCR odds: 1.17
Game 3: Newport County vs Middlesbrough. Boro WIN @1.91. BCR odds: 1.9
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.4604. BCR parlay: 4.34

Odds advantage: 2.77
Units advantage: 12.04

Arsenal, you just know how to shoot yourselves in the foot. Don't you want another St Totteringham Day again this year? Anyway, least you prevented more than 2 GD for Citeh. Aguero's 11th hattrick though?

We've got the Reds at West Ham today. We'll do an away parlay with the Georgian top dog friendly, and both Serie A games, Lazio and Atalanta will fancy a win right after knocking out giants in the Coppa.

Game 1: West Ham vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.37. BCR odds: 1.37
Game 2: Wit Georgia vs Gagra. Tblisi WIN @1.83. BCR odds none, consider even: 1.83
Game 3: Cagliari vs Atalanta. Atalanta WIN @1.67. BCR odds. 1.66
Game 4: Frosinone vs Lazio. Lazio WIN @1.43. BCR odds: 1.42
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.9872. BCR parlay: 5.9097

Odds advantage: 1.31
Units advantage: 7.75

Oh but the margins that make a difference in football! Moscow took the lead twice, went behind twice and then no one wanted to score for over 30 mins, so we lost the parlay. Shame as Wolves gave us a really good 3/1 away win.

Son returning from Asia Cup is such a boon, rescued Spurs twice in a row now even without playing to his peak. Why Rafa didn't play his new player I don't know.

But we have 1 bet for today: Arsenal vs City. I'll remember that city lost to Leicester immediately after losing to Palace, and Arsenal are worthy opponents... only problem is how brittle they are against a big side. But I have faith in Emery and Auba, plus the odds are incredible.

100 units on Arsenal to WIN vs Man City @9.3618, Competitor odds: 8.9870 (Refer to note below).

Note: this was yesterday's odds. Today, odds on Fairlay are 10.7293, Betcoin: 10.3. But since I took the early bet I won't double down. We will use the odd comparisons of today though, and assume the same percentage.
Odds advantage: 4.17
Units advantage: 37.48

Qatar have been a boon the whole AFC Asian Cup competition, bookies rated them the underdogs in all but 1 game as I recall, yet they've been winning with quite a bit of verve despite having less possession and fewer shots than more illustrious opponents, as in yesterday's final. Solid win, also to cash in my Qatar outright (but we won't add that here as it wasn't recorded earlier!).

Tricky Premier League games so I'm just going to back another Wolves win, away at Everton. Jimenez broke Chicarito's record last game, and I'm sure he'll be crucial again today, if not bag another himself. We'll parlay it with what should be easy friendly wins for USA and CSKA Moscow.

Game 1: Everton vs Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves WIN @2.99. BCR odds: 3.03
Game 2: USA vs Costa Rica. USA WIN @1.58. BCR odds: 1.52
Game 3: CSKA Moscow vs Sarpsborg 08. CSKA WIN @1.64. No odds, assume same.
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.7476. BCR parlay: 7.5531
Odds advantage: 2.58%
Units advantage: 19.45

Newcastle also won us an incredible game just this week, so can we count on them to defeat a flimsy Spurs team at Wembley? I say yes to this underdog!
100 units on Fairlay for Newcastle to WIN @9.5615. Betcoin odds: 8.29. BCR odds: 9.23
Odds advantage: 3.59
Units advantage: 33.15

Lazio, you almost did it. So many cards in the game I should have gone for red card at over 3/1 on live haha. Anyway, was good to see old Liverpool boy Lucas convert the winning penalty. Atalanta and Lazio, through to the semis! Juventus and Inter out, the underdogs will fancy their chances!

Today there is only 1 match I'm watching. Qatar has carried us all the way, helped us get quite a good few wins (if not for parlays folding elsewhere!) so if they win the cup, I have a 4.5x outright win in the bag. Japan started slowly, but have been gaining in strength - though the same can be said of Qatar. 3-0 and 4-0 thumping wins at the semis... both deservedly play in the final.

100 units at Betcoin backing Qatar to win at FT @3.83, with the tourney's top scorer in their ranks. BCR odds: 3.8
Odds advantage: 0.8%
Units advantage: 3

Strange losses in past 10 strings, where the lowest odds is the one that fails (well okay, Juventus also crashed out last night).

Still, 5 points advantage for Liverpool is nothing to sniff at.

Simple parlay: Real to finish the job with Copa del Rey, Inter to dispatch Lazio in Coppa Italia.

Game 1: Girona vs Real Madrid. Real WIN @1.73. Betcoin:1.73
Game 2: Inter Milan vs Lazio. Inter WIN @2.20. Betcoin: 2.18
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @3.8058. Betcoin parlay: 3.77

Odds advantage: 0.95%
Units advantage: 3.58

Now yesterday was a rare day indeed.

Qatar got through, ensuring my outright on them (at over 6/1) stays alive (not part of the picks as couldn't find any other bookie to make comparisons with and also just not preplanned). Arsenal laboured but eventually won, while Wolves stamped the quality we know they have all over the match. Great parlay, made better by Newcastle showing City who's the boss despite Aguero scoring a goal in the first minute, and you know, we almost had a perfect treble, if not for Pogba winning a penalty and somehow Utd getting a goal in injury time (I actually have a parlay that won with Burnley drawing but that's not part of this thread either!).

Rare day, let's see if the luck rubs off the next few days!

I'm a simple guy, so I want my Liverpool to win today against the Foxes. Parlay that with Strasbourg and Juventus (great odds for both considering Bordeaux's form and Juve being the favourite) to both win in a cup match.

Game 1: Liverpool vs Leicester. Liverpool WIN @1.26. BCR odds: 1.25
Game 2: Strasbourg vs Bordeaux. Strasbourg WIN @2.35. BCR odds: 2.39
Game 3: Atalanta vs Juventus. Juve WIN @2.02. BCR odds:2.00
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.9812. BCR parlay: 5.957

Odds advantage: 0.4%
Units advantage: 2.42

Such bad luck, seriously. Picking the AFC underdog at great odds, and only to be let down by extremely poor performances in Europe. Magic of the FA Cup saw Barnet fight for a 3-3 replay, terrible performance from Brentford, who should shot 27 times and only scored 2 from open play.

Our AFC romance with Qatar continues, who are for the first time NOT the underdogs. We pair them with Wolves in a patch of bad form whom I will back to recover, against a West Ham who just crashed out to lower opposition in the FA Cup... and an Arsenal win against hapless Cardiff.

Game 1: Qatar vs UAE. Qatar WIN @2.30. BCR odds:2.25
Game 2: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs West Ham. Wolves WIN @2.05. BCR odds 2.07
Game 3: Arsenal vs Cardiff City. Arsenal WIN @1.25. BCR odds: 1.25
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.8937. BCR parlay: 5.834

Odds advantage: 1.02%
Units advantage: 4.97

Edit: Since we're in love with the underdogs so much, let's bet on both Manchester teams to lose tonight. Solksjaer's run has to end soon, and Rafa must have a good day!
100 units on Burnley to WIN at Old Trafford @13.1552. Betcoin odds: 11.8
Odds advantage: 11.49%
Units advantage: 135.52

100 units on Newcastle to WIN vs City @17.5323.  Betcoin odds: 14.5
Odds advantage: 20.91%
Units advantage: 303.23


Edit 30 Jan 2019: Fixed totals, wrong # of bets and wrong units added. Wrong total was actually from January 22, but I'll make note only on 22 Jan post and to this post.

70% possession and they tried really hard, but Sociedad just couldn't break Huesca. Barca is going to have a tough time cracking that nut in the next game. Shame about the parlay.

Iran are the favourites in today's AFC semifinal, but I still believe in a Japan-Qatar final, so backing the Samurai Blue and Brentford in FA Cup, who surely must beat Conference opposition!

Game 1: Iran vs Japan. Japan WIN @3.6. BRC odds: 3.48
Game 2: Barnet vs Brentford. Brentford WIN @1.45. BCR odds: 1.43
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.22. BCR parlay: 4.961

Odds advantage: 5.22%
Units advantage: 25.9

Thanks! Yes it does... but it has been having problems for several days now. At first, betslip ID wouldn't show up, now I can't see the individual odds... but it all resolves several hours later. Betcoin acknowledged though and seem to be fixing it cause now I can see the betslip and odds.

Yesterday was a disaster. I really rate Wolves a lot but what a way for them to almost crash out to lesser opponents after dispatching Liverpool. Not to mention the other giant-killing acts involving West Ham and Everton. That'll teach me.

Today, we look at a few exotic picks. The US-Panama international friendly which US should win easily, same as Chelsea in FA Cup. And then Sociedad, Barca and Real Madrid to take 3 points each.

Game 1: US vs Panama. US WIN @1.5. BCR odds: 1.48
Game 2: Chelsea vs Sheffield Wednesday. Chelsea WIN @1.22. BCR odds: 1.21
Game 3: Girona vs Barcelona. Barca WIN @1.35. BCR odds: 1.33
Game 4: Real Sociedad vs Huesca. Sociedad WIN @1.60. BCR odds: 1.57
Game 5: Espanyol vs Real Madrid. Real WIN @1.75. BCR odds: 1.70
100 units Parlay at Betcoin @6.92. Bitcoinrush parlay: 6.401

Odds advantage: 8.11%
Units advantage: 49.9

Works for me:

I should have gone for both underdogs yesterday. Such pain to get the Qatar win, only to see bloody Australia drop to the hosts.

So many picks in FA Cup tonight. I'm used to seeing the FA Cup magic happen, but I'll hope it doesn't for my rather large set of picks tonight:

Game 1: Accrington Stanley - Derby County. Derby WIN @
Game 2: Doncaster Rovers - Oldham Athletic. Doncaster WIN @
Game 3: Middlesbrough FC - Newport County. Middlesbrough WIN @
Game 4: Brighton & Hove Albion FC - West Bromwich Albion. Brighton WIN @
Game 5: Shrewsbury Town - Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves WIN @
Game 6: Wimbledon - West Ham United. West Ham WIN @

Note: individual odds not available on betslip, something wrong with my bookie.

100 units parlay at Betcoin @18.13. Bitcoinrush parlay: 15.836

Odds advantage: 14.49%
Units advantage: 229.4

No joy for the underdogs, but I'm pretty confident about today's chances for unfancied Qatar vs South Korea. I'll pick them, parlay against an Aussie win against UAE, and parlay against Besiktas in Turkish league. Risky, but I'm confident!

Game 1: S Korea vs Qatar. Qatar WIN @4.3. BCR odds: 4.58
Game 2: UAE vs Australia. Australia WIN @1.8. BCR odds: 1.79
Game 3: Besiktas vs Erzurum. Besiktas WIN @1.45. BCR odds: 1.39
100 units at Bitcoinrush @11.3716. Betcoin parlay: 11.22

Odds advantage: 1.4%
Units advantage: 15.16

Barca failed us, so they did just as they did the previous round in Copa del Rey, lose away so they could win at home dramatically? They'll need 2 goals and a clean sheet though on the 2nd leg.

Today, I have a love for the underdogs of AFC, who haven't had a proper field day since the group stages. Odds are good for me, too, Vietnam aren't pushovers, and could match Japan on a good day. And China downed a sprightly Thailand, so why not Iran?

Whopping odds advantage on Fairlay for Vietnam too! So:

Game: 100 units at Fairlay on Vietnam to WIN against Japan @14.6162. Betcoin odds: 11.50
Odds advantage: 21.1%
Units advantage: 311.62

Game: 100 units at Betcoin on China to WIN against Iran @10.50. BCR odds: 9.5
Odds advantage: 10.53%
Units advantage: 100

Total units advantage: 411.62


Edit 30 Jan 2019: Total should be 122 L, a mistake I only realised and corrected on 30 Jan on 29 Jan picks. So from this post to Jan 28, losing picks should be +1.

Shouldn't have underestimated Bahrain, we lost our first parlay because they managed to equalise. S Korea still won, but our parlay was for 90 mins, so we lost that on the surest leg. Good news is that the Bristol pick turned out to be as easy as on paper, strolling to 3-0, so our 2nd parlay was well completed after Portsmouth also got their win.

Cup games tonight once again, parlayed with the sole match in the French Ligue 1. Barca have been getting quite poor bookie ratings of late, and I know that's because they're expected to lose or draw to Sevilla but I think they can push through even on 2nd-string. City should blast Burton and I only picked them because it's almost 1.2.

Note: Still a problem with odds on Betcoin and tickets. So will add later when available!

Game 1: Burton Albion vs Man City. City WIN @ . BCR odds: 1.14
Game 2: Sevilla vs Barcelona. Barca WIN @. BCR odds: 2.44
Game 3: Nimes Olympique vs Angers SCO. Nimes WIN @. BCR odds: 2.14
100 unit parlay at Betcoin @6.07. BCR parlay: 5.943

Odds advantage: 2.14%
Units advantage: 12.7

Damn you Japan. Good enough to win and ruin our parlay, but that's okay. That means Japan and Australia proceed - both rated well but IMO not deserving.

Today, the two strongest teams in my opinion are playing, and I think they're worth a parlay. Pad that up with a Bristol Rovers home win in EFL over Port Vale an entire division below them.

Note: I will post Bet IDs later today and odds. Maybe a 2nd bet also. System error in my bookie not showing the tickets nor the odds booked, can't login to check again.
Edit note: Betcoin is buggy, so I added in the tickets now that the system shows them, but for some reason individual odds don't show up, so I can't update.

Game 1: South Korea vs Bahrain. South Korea WIN @. BCR odds: 1.26
Game 2: Qatar vs Iraq. Qatar WIN @. BCR odds: 2.21
Game 3: Bristol Rovers vs Port Vale. Bristol WIN @. BCR odds:1.97

100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.70. BCR parlay: 5.481

Odds advantage: 3.4%
Units advantage: 21.9

Bristol odds look really good for the vast difference in league position (20+ positions!) so we'll do another parlay with Portsmouth to win at home in the same competition.
Game 1: Bristol Rovers vs Port Vale. Bristol WIN @. BCR odds:1.97
Game 2: Portsmouth vs Peterborough Utd. Portsmouth WIN @. BCR odds: 2.4
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.225. BCR parlay: 4.728

Odds advantage: 10.51%
Units advantage: 49.7

Total units advantage: 71.8