Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 79. (Read 38840 times)

Sassuolo completed their comeback to win, but Monaco only managed to level, so we lost our parlay yesterday.

Today, we move to the Premier League where several games look straightforward on paper, but recent string of results make things a little shaky for Spurs and City... so I'm going for 2 risky bet singles today, backing Burnley or Newscastle to win.

Game 1 Burnley vs Bournemouth. 100 units on Burnley WIN @3.18. Betking odds: 3.17. Nitro odds: 3.152.
Odds advantage with closest competitor: +0.32% Units advantage: +1

Game 2 Crystal Palace vs Newcastle. 100 units on Newcastle WIN @4.08. Betking odds: 3.99. Nitro odds: 4.056
Odds advantage with closest competitor: +0.59% Units advantage: +2.4




P.S.
Thanks to a note from DarkStar, I checked all my bets today. He's right, BetKing has some better odds, but not for everyone, and not for the picks I had anyway. I now added the odds from BetKing and Nitro, all checked within seconds of each other.

But where the differences are, they're really big. I'm now going to start eyeing them and start using them for betting. I guess things have changed since I first started following months ago, and the whole point of this thread is to show advantages of odds, so I will of course pick better odds when I can. So I will amend the format over the coming week, just have to get funds in order.

Some samples with really big variance!
Liverpool ML @1.19, Betking @1.18, Nitro @1.179
Draw @7.62, Betking @8 (Big difference!)

City ML @1.09, Betking @1.16
Cardiff @32.41, Betking @21
Draw @12.42, Betking @8.9

Thanks for your feedback, DS! Much appreciated! I have checked BetKing in the past, but not specifically on ML bets, it's possible Rush is no longer competitive on the big matches. I'll compare for future selections, especially on ML parlays. If you're right, then whoever's on Nitro will be using really high margins!

Actually I mainly use NitrogenSports, but when I can't find the same lines (typically on Asian handicaps) I use 1xbit... I know they may have a bad reputation from the complaints on forum but they advertise big online and have really big line selections. I tried using BitEdge sometimes but they're not real time apparently as the odds displayed are very different from when I do check.

For your soccer bets, check BetKing's line. I've been able to find better odds than Rush for quite a few ML selections (everything other than ML isn't worth comparing imo, much higher margin). I think you'll find that you're taking negative odds advantage around 1/3 of the time (if not higher) for popular European soccer matches.

ex: Lillie OSC vs FC Nantes (Ligue 1), BetKing offers @1.97 on Lillie OSC, while Rush only offers @1.94. From a quick glance at the closest competitor odds, you're really only comparing with Nitrogen which is the exact same odds provider as Rush (Pinnacle) but with a higher margin.

That turned out to be a tight parlay win, starting with Gerrard's plucky Rangers leveling the game to get the first leg won with the +1.25 handicap so I'm very pleased with that, followed by Chelsea firing a lone goal past PAOK, and then Rodger and Celtic leaving it till the 87th minute to win the game with a solitary goal. Brings our record to an even 8W and 8L. Not bad for selections mostly containing 2/3 leg parlays, but I know long term we should end up with majority losses on risky parlays.

From now on, I'll update the running totals to reflect change from the previous bet.

Today, slim pickings but let's go for the only games in Ligue 1 and Serie A.

Game 1 Sassuolo vs Empoli. Sassuolo WIN @1.91. Closest competitor odds: 1.897
Odds advantage: +0.69% Units advantage: +1.3

Game 2 Nimes Olympique vs AS Monaco, Monaco WIN @1.74. Closest competitor odds: 1.729
Odds advantage: +0.64% Units advantage: +1.1

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @3.3232. Competitor parlay @3.28
Total Odds advantage: +1.32%
Total Units advantage: +4.32 units

Very comfortable wins for all legs of our parlays... would actually have made close to 12x had we gone for 1.5 handicaps on all winners, but then I'm happy to book in a 5x win all the same.

Europa League beckons tonight, and I got my eyes on Steven Gerrard's side to start of their campaign with a thumping performance. Villareal are no pushovers, though, so I'll hedge with a +1.25 handicap. Completing the parlay will be a ML bet on Chelsea and Celtic.

Game 1 Rangers v Villareal, Rangers +1.25 @2.03. Closest competitor odds: 2.015
Odds advantage: +0.74% Units advantage: +1.5

Game 2 Chelsea vs PAOK, Chelsea WIN @1.64. Closest competitor odds: 1.631
Odds advantage: +0.45% Units advantage: +0.9

Game 3 Celtic vs Rosenberg, Celtic WIN @1.48. Closest competitor odds: 1.473
Odds advantage: +0.48% Units advantage: +0.7

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @4.9406. Competitor parlay @4.8409
Total Odds advantage: +2.06%
Total Units advantage: +9.97 units

I know! I actually also saw it at 2.3x at Rush even earlier, but by the time I booked it, it had dropped to 2.18 (which was still a nice win), and then as you saw from parlay above, 1.9x.

Lost the parlay because RS Belgrade parked the bus and Ancelotti couldn't get new Napoli to break them down. I didn't expect them to defend at home, really, because do they really expect to get points away against PSG and Liverpool?

Anyway, doesn't dampen my mood for another 3-legged parlay for tonight's games. Straightforward bets:

Game 1 Young Boys v Man U, Man U WIN @1.74. Closest competitor odds: 1.724
Odds advantage: +0.93% Units advantage: +1.6

Game 2 Bayern Munich vs Benfica, Bayern WIN @1.55. Closest competitor odds: 1.539
Odds advantage: +0.71% Units advantage: +1.1

Game 3 Juventus vs Valencia, Juve WIN @1.98. Closest competitor odds: 1.958
Odds advantage: +1.12% Units advantage: +2.2

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @5.2992. Competitor parlay @5.195
Total Odds advantage: +2%
Total Units advantage: +10.42 units

wow liverpool odds really dropped !! I was able to bet it yesterday at X2.33 , not thro rush but rush had a little bit lower odds than the other asian site I used
for today I have bets for all the selections that you chose
I took liverpool to win and Liverpool to score over 1.5 goals
took over 3.5 for dortmund game
and took Napoli -1

still watching the lines for Barcelona's game cause I want to bet BTTS but waiting for the odds to go over X2.00 , it was higher than that yesterday actually but didn't go for it and now the highest I can find is X1.93

anyways we should have a fun night 

And we now have more losses than wins, which is what to expect when most bets are parlays. That's not going to stop us from trying, especially with Liverpool playing tonight.

Odds have edged closer towards Liverpool who take on PSG at Anfield, dropping almost 7% since the Single Bet I made >2 weeks ago but it's still a decent doubler, but why not go big tonight and take a look at 3-way parlays for Europe's top dogs?


Game 1 Liverpool v PSG, Reds WIN @2.08. Closest competitor odds: 2.067
Odds advantage: +0.63% Units advantage: +1.3

Game 2 Borussia Dortmund vs Brugge, Dortmund WIN @1.94. Closest competitor odds: 1.931
Odds advantage: +0.47% Units advantage: +0.9

Game 3 Napoli vs Crvena Zvezda, Napoli WIN @1.63. Closest competitor odds: 1.618
Odds advantage: +0.74% Units advantage: +1.2

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @6.5846. Competitor parlay @6.537
Total Odds advantage: +0.73%
Total Units advantage: +4.76 units

It was not to be. I counted on at least 1 of the bottom 3 teams to snap their non-winning streak, but it turns out the Hammers had more stomach for it, although I should have paid attention to Everton's injury-riddled squad. On the plus side, Roma managed to squander a 2 goal lead so our parlay is less painful than had Burnley actually won!

Let's go for a home win tonight in the EPL for the Saints, at just over 2/1 odds. I've had enough of underdogs too, so let's match this with a Serie A victory for Atalanta against SPAL.

Game 1 Southampton v Broghton, Saints WIN @2.06. Closest competitor odds: 2.048
Odds advantage: +0.59% Units advantage: +1.2

Game 2 Atalanta vs SPAL, Atalanta WIN @1.87. Closest competitor odds: 1.861
Odds advantage: +0.48% Units advantage: +0.9


Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @3.8513. Competitor parlay @3.811
Total Odds advantage: +1.06%
Total Units advantage: +4.03 units


Running units advantage after 13 bets: +64.85

Running units after 12 bets (6W|6L): +662.52

Solid wins for our 2-legged parlay on Saturday. Liverpool firmed up their title challenge, while Arsenal weathered Newcastle's negativity to secure their win. Was truly tempting to add Chelsea or United even to the parlay and would have booked us up to 8/1 if we chose United, with all winners doing 2-1, but we needed a bit more of a steady win to add some fat to our winnings.

Today, let's go for big risk, big reward!


For the main game, I'm going to back Burnley to get their first win, away to Wolves. Something's got to give for last season's surprise package!

We dip into the troubled Serie A for some interesting padding parlays. Roma and Chievo feature in the opener, the latter anchored to the bottom of the league with -2 points after an accounting penalty docked them 3 points. Roma will surely have this win. Juventus meet Sassuolo, and while they haven't been playing at their best, it's difficult to see the champions stumble at this stage.


Game 1 Wolves v Burnley, Burnley WIN @5.72. Closest competitor odds: 5.686
Odds advantage: +0.59% Units advantage: +3.4

Game 2 Roma vs Chievo, Roma WIN @1.23. Closest competitor odds: 1.216
Odds advantage: +1.15% Units advantage: +1.4

Game 3 Juventus vs Sassuolo, Juventus WIN @1.24. Closest competitor odds: 1.231
Odds advantage: +0.73% Units advantage: +0.9

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @8.7079. Competitor parlay @8.511
Total Odds advantage: +2.31%
Total Units advantage: +19.69 units

OK, last night's 1st leg returned half and lost half on my 2.25, as Birmingham and West Brom just couldn't find anything in their reserves in the 2nd half to score the 1 more goal I needed for the parlay to properly win. And everything loooked so good at half time with 1-1 too.

Nevertheless, we're back for the only thing that matters in life right now, and that's the Premier League. Heh.

2-game parlay for me today, feels a bit risky but I think Liverpool need to win this game so will attack and overwhelm Spurs (that's the dream) while Arsenal seem to have finally found their feet so should dispatch Newcastle, even if Benitez will surely park the bus and the team mascot. It might end up as a draw though, but I already had a very early Liverpool ML single booked in weeks ago at better odds (probably adjusted since team news for Spurs came out), so I'll be okay.

Game 1 Liverpool v Spurs, Liverpool WIN @2.31. Closest competitor odds: 2.296
Odds advantage: +0.61% Units advantage: +1.4

Game 2 Newcastle vs Arsenal, Arsenal WIN @1.88. Closest competitor odds: 1.866
Odds advantage: +0.75% Units advantage: +1.4

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @4.3363. Competitor parlay @4.284
Total Odds advantage: +1.22%
Total Units advantage: +5.23 units

Very comfortable win yesterday, let's see if we can get a first win streak with a decent ML bet plus a modest parlay padding.

All eyes will be on the weekend as English teams resume their Premier League campaigns, but we have 1 Championship game. Birmingham have only scored an average of 1 goal per game since the season start but playing home, they might want to take a few risks against West Brom, who currently are the Championship's highest scoring-team with 2.5 goals average per game. Over 2.25 is just shy of 2/1 odds so we'll look to the Ligue 1 to boost that, so tonight's PSG's home game is the parlay pad.

Game 1 Birmingham v West Brom Over 2.25 @1.91. Closest competitor odds not available but based on spreads for Over 2 and Over 2.5, we'll take the lowest spread of 0.08 for 1.902:
Odds advantage: +0.42% Units advantage: +0.8

Game 2 PSG vs St Etienne ML @1.23. Closest competitor odds: 1.218
Odds advantage: +0.99% Units advantage: +1.5

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @2.344. Competitor parlay @2.3166
Total Odds advantage: +1.18%
Total Units advantage: +2.7 units

RIP women's internationals. 2 legs of the parlay lost, and even the first leg was a shock defeat supposedly, the 11/1 underdogs were even 3-0 up against Barcelona - judging from their Twitter, they're not that upset strangely. Women footballers may be getting equal pay in East Sussex, but this is why it'll be years before their entertainment value's taken seriously. Not trying to be sexist here but anyway.

Today's a bit slim for pickings but I'll stick with women's CL again for the play-offs, Slavia Prague vs a team I've never heard of (all due respect): FK Gintra Universitetas.

A simple ML for 100 units on Slavia Prague @1.74. Closest competitor odds: 1.718
Odds advantage: +1.28%, units advantage: +2.2

Fairly straightforward and easy wins for yesterday's parlay, debutants made all over the teams as new coaches gave youngsters a chance.

We're going to try something a bit unusual today with the UEFA Women's Champions League playoff, with a 3rd leg from the U19 Women's friendlies. Now I'm not going to pretend that I'll watch any of the games or that I understand who the good teams are or not, but I'm going to pick some heavy favourites (below 1.2 to win) and choose Over/Under. Should be high-scoring games either way.

Game 1 FC Barcelona v BIIK Kazygurt Over 3 @1.45. Closest competitor odds: 1.441
Odds advantage: + 0.62%, units advantage: +0.9
Game 2 Rosengard v Ryazan Over 1.75 @1.47. Closest competitor odds: 1.462
Odds advantage: + 0.55%, units advantage: +0.8
Game 3 (U19) Faroe Islands v Estonia Over 2.75 @1.43. Closest competitor odds not found... so I'm going to assume same odds.
Odds advantage: + 0%, units advantage: +0

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @3.0495. Competitor parlay @3.012
Total Odds advantage: +1.25%
Total Units advantage: +3.7 units

Thank you for your comments! I have to admit that I initially thought there were a lot of gamblers on this forum, but after over a year, I've realised that actually there are just a handful of really active ones (that actively bet, that is), and the level of discussion odds and even the way tips and bettings are recorded do leave a lot to be desired.

It's quite simple mathematics, really... and yes, as you can see from my past bets since I started, the difference really is quite small, below or just above 1% in most cases. But, over time, these really add up, and especially with accumulators/parlays, that 1% advantage can end up to be 2 or even 3% if you're the type to go for long parlays.

So far, 7 bets here also gives 27.3 units advantage... that's almost 4 units extra winnings for every bet, not to mention cashback. As SyGambler said above, I just want to show that there's money you're leaving on the table if you don't choose the best odds - all other things equal!

You can click on any of my betslips (linked with every bet post made), if you sign up with that, you'll be my referral!



Yeah, I thought it was really good value too, even for a friendly. They did really well in WC qualifiers with all that shitty travelling they were forced to do, gave a good account of themselves against Malaysia and even Australia, made me good money too. I actually thought they might have done better than Iran had they gone through.

There's actually good odds on these "exotic" leagues if you follow them, but then there's always the surprising result that kicks you in the teeth. Not that the European games don't do that to you too!

Syria's last game was a complete joke and costed me around 250 euros , I was expecting a 3 goals difference win by Syria but the game was just horrible
the current coach is still trying new players but he did way so many wrong choices in the last game and people here are saying that the last game was the worst one that Syria played in the last 10 years

we were expecting to see Gabriel Alsomi for the first time with Syria , but the coach decided to never even let him in for few minutes
some rumors are saying that Gabriel is sad now since this is the 4th time that the coach invites him without even letting him participate for few minutes

last game was really bad and people here are really angry , not just because of the loss but because Syria may lost some good young names that won't be participate in the future due to coach treating them bad

anyways glad that you are following Syria , there are tons of money to be made by betting on them
in WC qualification stages I won all my bets on Syria due to bookies really under-estimating the team

Honestly, I didn't know that the tiny bit of difference between different Sportsbook could make a big difference, not until you showed it here with the numbers and all that stuff. Normally, I just go and bet ahead without thinking that other bookies could have a better odds. Really liking your thread here and will definitely add these to the bets that I follow (I also follow BitcoinSupremo and jeremypwr to name a few).

I currently don't have any account with Bitcoinrush but I've been hearing good feedback from the community about them. Guess it's about time to create some account there and get some money from.  Anyone willing to throw a link of referral (if they have) for me?

Syria RIP, though they won't be perturbed by the friendly result, so we lost the parlay yesterday, even if the other 2 legs were covered.

2 games in last night's CONCACAF qualifiers scored 10 goals or more, so I'm tempted to look at today's offerings but my bookie doesn't seem to offer any lines so we'll go for another ML parlay.

Singapore has good odds against Fiji, surprisingly, so I'm taking that one with a Japan victory against Costa Rica. They're all island/coastal football teams, and typically not very good but Singapore and Japan are giants so they'll still play well with reserves.

Game 1 Spore v Fiji, ML Singapore @1.62. Closest competitor odds: 1.611
Odds advantage: + 0.56%, units advantage: +0.9
Game 2 U19 Japan v Costa Rica, ML Japan @1.66. Closest competitor odds: 1.652
Odds advantage: + 0.48%, units advantage: +0.8

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @2.6947. Competitor parlay @2.668
Total Odds advantage: +1%
Total Units advantage: +1.7 units

Yesterday's games were close, both ended up with 3 goals to just close out the over 2.5 parlays successfully.

Today's focus is on the Syria friendly with Kyrgyzstan. Syrian football will probably still be fresh from the nearly-there performance in the WC qualifiers, but they're still a strong team and should have enough in their squad to down their opponents, who shouldn't score. I like my chances also in the U19s and U21s, so will pad up with expected wins from Germany and Moldova.

Game 1 Syria v Kyrgyzstan, ML Syria @1.84. Closest competitor odds: 1.829
Odds advantage: + 0.6%, units advantage: +1.1
Game 2 U19 Germany v Slovakia, ML Germany @1.20. Closest competitor odds: 1.192
Odds advantage: + 0.67%, units advantage: +0.8
Game 3 U21 Moldova v San Marino, ML Moldova @1.14. Closest competitor odds: 1.132
Odds advantage: 0.7%, units advantage: +0.8


Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @2.5314. Competitor parlay @2.468
Total Odds advantage: +2.56%
Total Units advantage: +6.34 units

@Sy, why yes, of course, I completely forgot about cashback. It's small at my level (0.1% Sportsbook bets), so I will now add this 0.1% cashback to units advantage (probably too small to reflect in odds percentage advantage). Maybe amend OP to show that big bettors gain even more if they wager enough. Thanks for that.

====

Meanwhile, last night's parlay went well. Egypt made short work of dispatching Niger but we'll thank the 78th-minute 3rd goal by Morocco to give us the win.

We'll go for a mix today of Africa Cup of Nations (Mali vs South Sudan) and the UEFA Nations (France vs Netherlands). Mali should hammer South Sudan for at least 3 goals, so the risk is actually for a snorefest but if the French are up for it, the Dutch are just waiting for a drubbing. So:

Game 1 Mali/S. Sudan over 2.5 goals @1.91. Closest competitor odds: 1.901
Odds advantage: + 0.47%, units advantage: +0.9
Game 2 Netherlands/France over 2.5 goals @1.92. Closest competitor odds: 1.901
Odds advantage: + 1%, units advantage: +1.9

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @3.6606. Competitor parlay @3.614
Total Odds advantage: +1.29%
Total Units advantage: +4.66 units