Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 79. (Read 40042 times)

That was a murderous night for me... but at least I was entertained. Nothing better than a crazy upset to set the blood on fire. Liverpool's group is completely open, and could still be everyone's game even with 1 game left, depending on the results of the next match week.

United are a very tempting predicament with such good odds, so I'll take them as a hedge. You never know how it is with Mourinho.

Parlay 1:
Game 1: Valencia vs Young Boys. Valencia WIN @1.53. BCR odds: 1.52
Game 2: Juventus vs Man Utd. Juventus WIN @1.64. BCR odds: 1.63
Game 3: Lyon vs Hoffenheim. Lyon [email protected]. BCR odds: 1.64
Parlay for 110 units at BetKing @5.72. BCR Parlay:5.526
Odds advantage: 3.51%
Units advantage: 19.4 units

Single bet for 110 units on Man Utd to WIN at Juventus with Bitcoinrush @6.66. Betking odds:6.37
Odds advantage: 4.55%
Units advantage: 29 units

Huddersfield needed an own goal from poor Fosu-Mensah but they sealed their first win and won us our parlay - not every day I get to enjoy 2 consecutive parlay wins, which takes us once more above 20% of bankroll, so will adjust base unit bet to 110 units.

Champions League serves us up many games, but I'll take reliable Barcelona and Suarez to take 3 points, while Monaco should have it in them to hit Brugge for a home win.

Game 1 Monaco vs Brugge. Monaco WIN @2.33 . BCR odds: 2.32
Game 2 Inter Milan vs Barcelona. Barca WIN @2.15. BCR odds: 2.11
Parlay for 110 units at Betking @5.0. BCR Parlay: 4.895
Odds advantage: 2.15%
Units advantage: 10.5 units

I'm wondering if Napoli could overturn PSG at home - they gave them a right lesson in football in Paris even with the Ultras breathing down their neck, and the odds reflect that. A single bet on Dortmund who are on fire too so a tough away win against Athletico is on the cards.

Single bet for 110 units on Dortmund to WIN at Athletico Madrid at BitcoinRush @4.29. Betking odds: 4.18
Odds advantage: 2.63%
Units advantage: 11 units

Some joy from the Italian League last night, we still needed Atalanta to come back from 1 goal down, and a last-gap 7th minute of injury time for Milan to snatch the single-goal victory, but all-in-all, persistence rewarded the attacking-minded teams last night (Lazio are in a rich vein of scoring too).

Not much to look at for today's games, BCR has most of the exotic lines but I'm not confident on any of them so we'll bet on the only games from EPL and Primeira and back the home teams to pull off wins.

Game 1 Huddersfield Town vs Fulham. Huddersfield WIN @2.38 BCR: 2.37
Game 2 Espanyol vs Athletic Bilbao. Espanyol WIN @1.99 BCR: 1.97

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @4.73. BCR Parlay @4.671
Odds advantage: 1.26%
Units advantage: 5.9 units

One goal away from winning both parlays... to be perfectly honest, I'd have loved to have a Liverpool win just to lose both parlays. Betting on Liverpool's cost me 20% of my losses, but I don't think I'll be changing my patterns - Liverpool haven't found their form yet but they will and when that happens...

We go hunting in Serie A for tonight's parlay:

Game 1 Udinese vs AC Milan. Milan WIN @1.94 BCR: 1.91
Game 2 Bologna vs Atalanta. Atalanta WIN @.177. BCR: 174
Game 3 Lazio vs Spal 2013. Lazio WIN @1.35. BCR: 1.34

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @4.63. BCR Parlay @4.455
Odds advantage: 3.93%
Units advantage: 17.5 units

Yet another parlay killed by the lack of 1 goal, just not been able to recapture my luck since the last Champions League games. Doesn't change anything, but maybe I'll hedge a simple 2-leg parlay with another, instead simple one - English Premier League is back and everything looks so delicious.

Parlay 1
Game 1 Arsenal vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.97. BCR @1.94
Game 2 Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Tottenham Hotspurs. Spurs WIN @2.33. BCR @2.3
Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @4.59. BCR Parlay @4.47
Odds advantage: 2.68%
Units advantage: 12 units

Parlay 2
Game 1 AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester United. Utd WIN @2.06. BCR @2.05
Game 2 Cardiff City vs Leicester City. Leicester WIN @2.37. BCR @2.34
Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @4.88. BCR Parlay:4.797
Odds advantage: 1.73%
Units advantage: 8.3 units

More cup misery, fantastic goals but ultimately draws that brought our parlay to a grinding halt from the very first match to settle. Let's hope for Friday night galore in German, Italian and English leagues.

Game 1 Napoli vs Empoli. Napoli Over 2 @1.48 - BCR: no line
Game 2 Aston Villa vs Bolton Wanderers. Over 2.5 @1.84 - BCR: 1.98
Game 3 VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt. Over 2 @1.42 - BCR: 1.38

Even odds after all so no change to odds advantage.

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @3.86

Crystal Palace came up short, stretching my own winless run to almost 10 games!

We turn to Copa del Rey tonight, winners are going to be hard to pick out with patchy form for selections, but still good value bets on marginal favourites, taking into account some European commitments for some.

Game 1 UD Almeria vs Villareal CF. Villareal WIN @1.67. BCR: 1.65

Game 2 Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad. Celta Vigo WIN @2.38 BCR: 2.38

Game 3 Cadiz vs Espanyol. Espanyol WIN @2.04. BCR: 2.04

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @8.1. BCR Parlay:8.01
Odds advantage: 1.25%
Units advantage: 9 units

Woe is me, another failed leg to ruin the parlay. Athletico didn't even come close to 3 goals, guess they seldom play as well away.

League Cup tonight. Spurs look a good value bet, adjusted because of their poor form but they should still escape Hammers with a victory. Same goes for Crystal Palace, surely Zaha can nick a goal and keep Boro at bay?

Blackpool looks such a tempting wager at 22/1 but away to Arsenal, I'll keep a cool head.

Game 1 West Ham vs Tottenham Hotspurs. Bitcoinrush Spurs WIN 2.48.  Betking: 2.45

Game 2 Middlesbrough vs Crystal Palace. Palace WIN 2.35. Betking: 2.37

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Bitcoinrush @5.828. Betking Parlay @ 5.8
Odds advantage: 0.4%
Units advantage: 2.8 units

I feel like Real Madrid now, just can't seem to get out of bad run of results, missing parlays by a goal and can't even win single bets! But no matter, this is the long parlay game and it's been a fun ride so far, with almost 600 units gained as potential advantage over 60 bets, just by picking the bookie with the better odds! That's an average of 9+ units per bet - 9 dollars extra for every 100 placed!

A simple parlay today, hoping for both Bournemouth, Dusseldorf and Athletico to score freely in their respective cup games.

Game 1 AFC Bournemouth vs Norwich City. Bournemouth WIN @1.60. BCR: 1.59

Game 2 SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf. Düsseldorf WIN @1.65 BCR: 1.64

Game 3 Sant Andreu vs Atletico Madrid. Over 3 @1.77 . BCR: 1.78

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @4.67. BCR Parlay 4.631
Odds advantage: 1%
Units advantage: 3.9 units

Woe is me, 1 more goal in Parlay 2 and 1 less in Parlay 1 and we could have walked with a huge win. As fortune would have it, Arsenal croaked to a penalty, while Napoli/Roma just couldn't get more than a goal apiece. Only 1 game worth watching tonight, and it's a big one too. Smart money is on City to hammer Spurs, but you know, City is always most vulnerable against good attacking teams, so we'll bank on a Kane goal and just a general attacking from Spurs to put City's always shaky defence in disarray. It's a home game too, not that Spurs really calls Wembley "home"!

Single bet on Tottenham Hotspurs to WIN vs Manchester City @5.34. BCR odds: 5.32

Odds advantage: 0.4%
Units advantage: 2 units

Dortmund went on their fine scoring form, but their amazing run was eventually halted with a 2-2 draw last night, shredding our parlay. But the goals have been flowing for our picks, so I'm not discouraged. Very juice picks tonight, so I'm going for 2 parlays including of course the El Classico encounter:

Parlay 1:
Game 1 Barcelona vs Real Madrid. Barca WIN @1.93. BCR: 1.9
Game 2 Crystal Palace vs Arsenal. Arsenal WIN @1.77. BCR: 1.75

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @3.41. BCR Parlay 3.320
Odds advantage: 2.71%
Units advantage: 9 units

Parlay 2:
Game 1 Napoli vs Roma. Over 2.5 @1.64. BCR: 1.61
Game 2 Barcelona vs Real Madrid. Over 2.5 @1.54. BCR: 1.51
Game 3 Deportivo Alaves vs Villarreal. Over 2.5 @2.26. BCR: 2.26

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @5.7. BCR Parlay 5.498
Odds advantage: 3.67%
Units advantage: 20.2 units

Push on the first leg of last night's parlay, so we only made a small profit which takes us back above 20% bankroll, and raising yet again the base unit bet to 110.

Better news: Premier League is back in action, along with other major leagues, so we'll do a 3-way parlay across English, Spanish and German leagues.

Game 1 Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha Berlin. Dortmund WIN @1.52. BCR odds: 1.49

Game 2 Leicester City vs West Ham United. Over 2 goals @1.51. BCR odds: 1.51

Game 3 Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad. Over 2 goals @1.73. BCR odds: 1.69

Parlay for 110 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @3.97. BCR Parlay 3.806
Odds advantage: 4.31%
Units advantage: 16.4 units

Another night of mixed fortunes for the favourites, taking our bankroll back below 20%, so am readjusting bets to 100 units.

Friday night action, we'll do a small Over/Under parlay on La Liga and Bundesliga, where we'll hope to see goals aplenty.

Game 1 Real Valladolid vs RCD Espanyol. Over 2 @1.84. BCR odds: 1.83

Game 2 Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach. Over 2.5 @1.74. BCR odds: 1.71


Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @3.20. BCR Parlay 3.122
Odds advantage: 2.5%
Units advantage: 7.8 units

Champions League misery for Spurs and PSG, broken parlay. Was almost right on Monaco, but they're really struggling after selling their stars. So a double loss recorded.

We go to an ambitious but doable parlay for Europa League, where the risk lies with Qarabag and Olympiakos, but good value bets to me as they should at least get a goal each, while their opponents might not have enough to break them down once they're ahead, since both teams will protect their leads.

Game 1 Qarabag FK vs Vorskla Poltava. Qarabag WIN @1.71. BCR: 1.67

Game 2 Sporting vs Arsenal. Arsenal WIN @1.90. BCR: 1.89

Game 3 Zurich vs Leverkusen. Leverkusen WIN @1.77. BCR: 1.76

Game 4 F91 Dudelange vs Olympiacos. Olympiacos WIN @1.61. BCR: 1.58

Parlay for 110 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @9.25. BCR Parlay 8.768
Odds advantage: 5.5%
Units advantage: 48.2 units

Missed yesterday's games, but we have a good set of Champions League outings tonight. We'll go for the slight favourites in Hotspurs as the main leg, even though Eindhoven have actually been performing pretty well. Both teams are at 0 points, but you'd feel the English side will have the edge.

And then we'll take the Ligue A underdog in the Group A game as a single bet, also a match with two winless teams. The bookies favour the Belgians at home, they've just lost in the league and a cup game before that, while Monaco's winless streak stretches back all the way back to mid August... something's got to give!

For the parlay:
Game 1 PSV Eindhoven vs Tottenham Hotspurs. Spurs WIN @2.18. BCR odds: 2.15

Game 2 Barcelona vs Inter Milan. Barca WIN @1.55. BCR odds: 1.53

Game 3 PSG vs Napoli. PSG WIN @1.55. BCR odds: 1.53

Parlay for 110 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @5.23. BCR Parlay 5.064
Odds advantage: 3.28%
Units advantage: 16.6 units

For the single bet:
110 units Club Brugge vs Monaco. Monaco WIN @3.71. Betking odds: 3.62
Odds advantage: 2.49%
Units advantage: 9 units





Yeah, it's been a while since we hit a parlay above 6x... but I'm quite used to losing several parlays in a row, since I'm quite fond of taking 3/4 game legs, and these bets have a very low success rate (when compared to 70/80% win rate at tipsters who only choose 1 game!). So yes, it is what it is, glad to have someone following me

I'm actually stupidly smirking here at my desk when I saw the other games went smoothly and that Fiorentina had the lead goal at the 60-minute mark and thought that we have this in the bag. But boy oh boy, things turned around really fast. Well, have to agree with you that this is the risk that we take when betting on parlays and it is what it is. Looking forward to your recent parlay.  

Would have been a nice way to kick off the Premier League restarting, but Fiorentina HAD to slip up and concede a goal after being given a generous penalty lead. All other games turned out to be comfortable wins in the end, but such is the risk of the parlay.

Monday night action, we'll back the home teams in Italy and England.

Game 1 Arsenal vs Leiceister. Arsenal WIN @1.58. BCR: 1.58

Game 2 UC Sampdoria vs US Sassuolo. Sampdoria WIN @2.18. BCR: 2.15

Parlay for 110 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @3.44. BCR Parlay 3.407
Odds advantage: 0.97%
Units advantage: 3.3 units

What a bummer. Not a single one of the total shots wagers even pushed, would have made the same profit had I just gone for Under instead of Over. So much for that experiment!

We do another cross-league parlay tonight, the sole Sunday Premier League game, which the home team should win, with the Bundesliga and Serie A.

Game 1 Everton vs Crystal Palace. Everton WIN @1.89. BCR: 1.86

Game 2 Borussia Monchengladbach vs Mainz 05. Monchengladbach WIN @1.63. BCR: 1.62

Game 3 Parma vs Lazio. Lazio WIN @1.6. BCR: 1.6

Game 4 Fiorentiono vs Cagliari. Fiorentino WIN @1.68. BCR: 1.66

Parlay for 110 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @8.28. BCR Parlay 7.984
Odds advantage: 3.71%
Units advantage: 29.6 units

Finally, a comfortable win for both legs, always good for a bit of self confidence especially when picking games from ex-English leagues.

Speaking of, Premier League action is back in town, but I'm not, so missing all the games on TV. Liverpool I expect and want to win, so they will form one leg of tonight's parlay. Chelsea-United game now is finely tied at 1-1, I'd have bet on Chelsea +0.5, but odds weren't as good as expected. I'll also do something different tonight, which will be total shots on goal. No odds available at other than BK for this line, so will only make comparison with the Liverpool ML bet.

Game 1 Huddersfield vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN Betking @1.33. BCR 1.3

Game 2 Newcastle United - Brighton and Hove Albion. Brighton shots on Goal Over 3 @1.78

Game 3 Manchester City - Burnley FC. Total shots on goal Over 11 @1.92

Game 4 Bournemouth AFC - Southampton FC. Total shots on goal Over 8 @1.48

Parlay for 110 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @6.72. BCR Parlay 6.5754
Odds advantage: 2.2%
Units advantage: 14.46 units

Phew. First leg of the parlay was also decided on 90th minute, game went into extra time but unfortunately neither team wanted to score, so ended up as a push. Almeria had a thumping game, though, so we won the second leg of the parlay, not a bad 0.85 return on the outlay.

International break over finally, and tonight's warm up to the Premier League tomorrow will be a parlay across Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Game 1 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Fortuna Dusseldorf. Frankfurt WIN Betking @1.70. BCR 1.68

Game 2 Lyon vs Nimes Olympique. Lyon WIN Betking @1.35. BCR 1.34

Parlay for 110 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) Betking @2.29. BCR Parlay 2.244
Odds advantage: 2.05%
Units advantage: 4.6 units