Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 82. (Read 40042 times)

It was not to be. I counted on at least 1 of the bottom 3 teams to snap their non-winning streak, but it turns out the Hammers had more stomach for it, although I should have paid attention to Everton's injury-riddled squad. On the plus side, Roma managed to squander a 2 goal lead so our parlay is less painful than had Burnley actually won!

Let's go for a home win tonight in the EPL for the Saints, at just over 2/1 odds. I've had enough of underdogs too, so let's match this with a Serie A victory for Atalanta against SPAL.

Game 1 Southampton v Broghton, Saints WIN @2.06. Closest competitor odds: 2.048
Odds advantage: +0.59% Units advantage: +1.2

Game 2 Atalanta vs SPAL, Atalanta WIN @1.87. Closest competitor odds: 1.861
Odds advantage: +0.48% Units advantage: +0.9


Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @3.8513. Competitor parlay @3.811
Total Odds advantage: +1.06%
Total Units advantage: +4.03 units


Running units advantage after 13 bets: +64.85

Running units after 12 bets (6W|6L): +662.52

Solid wins for our 2-legged parlay on Saturday. Liverpool firmed up their title challenge, while Arsenal weathered Newcastle's negativity to secure their win. Was truly tempting to add Chelsea or United even to the parlay and would have booked us up to 8/1 if we chose United, with all winners doing 2-1, but we needed a bit more of a steady win to add some fat to our winnings.

Today, let's go for big risk, big reward!


For the main game, I'm going to back Burnley to get their first win, away to Wolves. Something's got to give for last season's surprise package!

We dip into the troubled Serie A for some interesting padding parlays. Roma and Chievo feature in the opener, the latter anchored to the bottom of the league with -2 points after an accounting penalty docked them 3 points. Roma will surely have this win. Juventus meet Sassuolo, and while they haven't been playing at their best, it's difficult to see the champions stumble at this stage.


Game 1 Wolves v Burnley, Burnley WIN @5.72. Closest competitor odds: 5.686
Odds advantage: +0.59% Units advantage: +3.4

Game 2 Roma vs Chievo, Roma WIN @1.23. Closest competitor odds: 1.216
Odds advantage: +1.15% Units advantage: +1.4

Game 3 Juventus vs Sassuolo, Juventus WIN @1.24. Closest competitor odds: 1.231
Odds advantage: +0.73% Units advantage: +0.9

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @8.7079. Competitor parlay @8.511
Total Odds advantage: +2.31%
Total Units advantage: +19.69 units

OK, last night's 1st leg returned half and lost half on my 2.25, as Birmingham and West Brom just couldn't find anything in their reserves in the 2nd half to score the 1 more goal I needed for the parlay to properly win. And everything loooked so good at half time with 1-1 too.

Nevertheless, we're back for the only thing that matters in life right now, and that's the Premier League. Heh.

2-game parlay for me today, feels a bit risky but I think Liverpool need to win this game so will attack and overwhelm Spurs (that's the dream) while Arsenal seem to have finally found their feet so should dispatch Newcastle, even if Benitez will surely park the bus and the team mascot. It might end up as a draw though, but I already had a very early Liverpool ML single booked in weeks ago at better odds (probably adjusted since team news for Spurs came out), so I'll be okay.

Game 1 Liverpool v Spurs, Liverpool WIN @2.31. Closest competitor odds: 2.296
Odds advantage: +0.61% Units advantage: +1.4

Game 2 Newcastle vs Arsenal, Arsenal WIN @1.88. Closest competitor odds: 1.866
Odds advantage: +0.75% Units advantage: +1.4

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @4.3363. Competitor parlay @4.284
Total Odds advantage: +1.22%
Total Units advantage: +5.23 units

Very comfortable win yesterday, let's see if we can get a first win streak with a decent ML bet plus a modest parlay padding.

All eyes will be on the weekend as English teams resume their Premier League campaigns, but we have 1 Championship game. Birmingham have only scored an average of 1 goal per game since the season start but playing home, they might want to take a few risks against West Brom, who currently are the Championship's highest scoring-team with 2.5 goals average per game. Over 2.25 is just shy of 2/1 odds so we'll look to the Ligue 1 to boost that, so tonight's PSG's home game is the parlay pad.

Game 1 Birmingham v West Brom Over 2.25 @1.91. Closest competitor odds not available but based on spreads for Over 2 and Over 2.5, we'll take the lowest spread of 0.08 for 1.902:
Odds advantage: +0.42% Units advantage: +0.8

Game 2 PSG vs St Etienne ML @1.23. Closest competitor odds: 1.218
Odds advantage: +0.99% Units advantage: +1.5

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @2.344. Competitor parlay @2.3166
Total Odds advantage: +1.18%
Total Units advantage: +2.7 units

RIP women's internationals. 2 legs of the parlay lost, and even the first leg was a shock defeat supposedly, the 11/1 underdogs were even 3-0 up against Barcelona - judging from their Twitter, they're not that upset strangely. Women footballers may be getting equal pay in East Sussex, but this is why it'll be years before their entertainment value's taken seriously. Not trying to be sexist here but anyway.

Today's a bit slim for pickings but I'll stick with women's CL again for the play-offs, Slavia Prague vs a team I've never heard of (all due respect): FK Gintra Universitetas.

A simple ML for 100 units on Slavia Prague @1.74. Closest competitor odds: 1.718
Odds advantage: +1.28%, units advantage: +2.2

Fairly straightforward and easy wins for yesterday's parlay, debutants made all over the teams as new coaches gave youngsters a chance.

We're going to try something a bit unusual today with the UEFA Women's Champions League playoff, with a 3rd leg from the U19 Women's friendlies. Now I'm not going to pretend that I'll watch any of the games or that I understand who the good teams are or not, but I'm going to pick some heavy favourites (below 1.2 to win) and choose Over/Under. Should be high-scoring games either way.

Game 1 FC Barcelona v BIIK Kazygurt Over 3 @1.45. Closest competitor odds: 1.441
Odds advantage: + 0.62%, units advantage: +0.9
Game 2 Rosengard v Ryazan Over 1.75 @1.47. Closest competitor odds: 1.462
Odds advantage: + 0.55%, units advantage: +0.8
Game 3 (U19) Faroe Islands v Estonia Over 2.75 @1.43. Closest competitor odds not found... so I'm going to assume same odds.
Odds advantage: + 0%, units advantage: +0

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @3.0495. Competitor parlay @3.012
Total Odds advantage: +1.25%
Total Units advantage: +3.7 units

Thank you for your comments! I have to admit that I initially thought there were a lot of gamblers on this forum, but after over a year, I've realised that actually there are just a handful of really active ones (that actively bet, that is), and the level of discussion odds and even the way tips and bettings are recorded do leave a lot to be desired.

It's quite simple mathematics, really... and yes, as you can see from my past bets since I started, the difference really is quite small, below or just above 1% in most cases. But, over time, these really add up, and especially with accumulators/parlays, that 1% advantage can end up to be 2 or even 3% if you're the type to go for long parlays.

So far, 7 bets here also gives 27.3 units advantage... that's almost 4 units extra winnings for every bet, not to mention cashback. As SyGambler said above, I just want to show that there's money you're leaving on the table if you don't choose the best odds - all other things equal!

You can click on any of my betslips (linked with every bet post made), if you sign up with that, you'll be my referral!



Yeah, I thought it was really good value too, even for a friendly. They did really well in WC qualifiers with all that shitty travelling they were forced to do, gave a good account of themselves against Malaysia and even Australia, made me good money too. I actually thought they might have done better than Iran had they gone through.

There's actually good odds on these "exotic" leagues if you follow them, but then there's always the surprising result that kicks you in the teeth. Not that the European games don't do that to you too!

Syria's last game was a complete joke and costed me around 250 euros , I was expecting a 3 goals difference win by Syria but the game was just horrible
the current coach is still trying new players but he did way so many wrong choices in the last game and people here are saying that the last game was the worst one that Syria played in the last 10 years

we were expecting to see Gabriel Alsomi for the first time with Syria , but the coach decided to never even let him in for few minutes
some rumors are saying that Gabriel is sad now since this is the 4th time that the coach invites him without even letting him participate for few minutes

last game was really bad and people here are really angry , not just because of the loss but because Syria may lost some good young names that won't be participate in the future due to coach treating them bad

anyways glad that you are following Syria , there are tons of money to be made by betting on them
in WC qualification stages I won all my bets on Syria due to bookies really under-estimating the team

Honestly, I didn't know that the tiny bit of difference between different Sportsbook could make a big difference, not until you showed it here with the numbers and all that stuff. Normally, I just go and bet ahead without thinking that other bookies could have a better odds. Really liking your thread here and will definitely add these to the bets that I follow (I also follow BitcoinSupremo and jeremypwr to name a few).

I currently don't have any account with Bitcoinrush but I've been hearing good feedback from the community about them. Guess it's about time to create some account there and get some money from.  Anyone willing to throw a link of referral (if they have) for me?

Syria RIP, though they won't be perturbed by the friendly result, so we lost the parlay yesterday, even if the other 2 legs were covered.

2 games in last night's CONCACAF qualifiers scored 10 goals or more, so I'm tempted to look at today's offerings but my bookie doesn't seem to offer any lines so we'll go for another ML parlay.

Singapore has good odds against Fiji, surprisingly, so I'm taking that one with a Japan victory against Costa Rica. They're all island/coastal football teams, and typically not very good but Singapore and Japan are giants so they'll still play well with reserves.

Game 1 Spore v Fiji, ML Singapore @1.62. Closest competitor odds: 1.611
Odds advantage: + 0.56%, units advantage: +0.9
Game 2 U19 Japan v Costa Rica, ML Japan @1.66. Closest competitor odds: 1.652
Odds advantage: + 0.48%, units advantage: +0.8

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @2.6947. Competitor parlay @2.668
Total Odds advantage: +1%
Total Units advantage: +1.7 units

Yesterday's games were close, both ended up with 3 goals to just close out the over 2.5 parlays successfully.

Today's focus is on the Syria friendly with Kyrgyzstan. Syrian football will probably still be fresh from the nearly-there performance in the WC qualifiers, but they're still a strong team and should have enough in their squad to down their opponents, who shouldn't score. I like my chances also in the U19s and U21s, so will pad up with expected wins from Germany and Moldova.

Game 1 Syria v Kyrgyzstan, ML Syria @1.84. Closest competitor odds: 1.829
Odds advantage: + 0.6%, units advantage: +1.1
Game 2 U19 Germany v Slovakia, ML Germany @1.20. Closest competitor odds: 1.192
Odds advantage: + 0.67%, units advantage: +0.8
Game 3 U21 Moldova v San Marino, ML Moldova @1.14. Closest competitor odds: 1.132
Odds advantage: 0.7%, units advantage: +0.8


Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @2.5314. Competitor parlay @2.468
Total Odds advantage: +2.56%
Total Units advantage: +6.34 units

@Sy, why yes, of course, I completely forgot about cashback. It's small at my level (0.1% Sportsbook bets), so I will now add this 0.1% cashback to units advantage (probably too small to reflect in odds percentage advantage). Maybe amend OP to show that big bettors gain even more if they wager enough. Thanks for that.

====

Meanwhile, last night's parlay went well. Egypt made short work of dispatching Niger but we'll thank the 78th-minute 3rd goal by Morocco to give us the win.

We'll go for a mix today of Africa Cup of Nations (Mali vs South Sudan) and the UEFA Nations (France vs Netherlands). Mali should hammer South Sudan for at least 3 goals, so the risk is actually for a snorefest but if the French are up for it, the Dutch are just waiting for a drubbing. So:

Game 1 Mali/S. Sudan over 2.5 goals @1.91. Closest competitor odds: 1.901
Odds advantage: + 0.47%, units advantage: +0.9
Game 2 Netherlands/France over 2.5 goals @1.92. Closest competitor odds: 1.901
Odds advantage: + 1%, units advantage: +1.9

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @3.6606. Competitor parlay @3.614
Total Odds advantage: +1.29%
Total Units advantage: +4.66 units

guess also you should add up how much more you get back as betbacks with rush as well
this thread will be epic when it reaches like 1000 bets and people realize how much money compound over time they will get by just betting with rush 

So the bore draw I feared in UEFA Nations League happened in both legs of yesterday's parlay, would have been an incredible return had I actually did both legs on draws. But he who dwelleth on losses may not lose more, so today we go again.

This time, we shift focus to Africa Cup of Nations. Egypt meet Niger, while Morocco plays Malawi. Both Egypt and Morocco are heavy favourites and bookies aren't tipping these to be high scoring games, but let's have a go anyway:

Game 1 Egypt/Niger over 2.5 goals @1.96. Closest competitor odds: 1.945
Odds advantage: + 0.77%, units advantage: +1.5
Game 2 Morocco/Malawi over 2.5 goals @1.98. Closest competitor odds: 1.963
Odds advantage: + 0.87%, units advantage: +1.7

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @3.8846. Competitor parlay @3.818
Total Odds advantage: +1.74%
Total Units advantage: +6.7 units

Thank you buddy, it's really encouraging to hear from a fellow Red! I'll be happy if the few actual gamblers/football fans I know here are the only ones following! I didn't really intend to make this a tipster thread since I tend to bet with my gut when it comes to games I'm watching, but anyway yes, I'll start keeping a running tab on bets with units too, maybe that'll provide extra interest!


Yeah, I might end up being the worst tipster, but like you said, the main point of this threat is to show how even regularly choosing better odds puts you up a big advantage over even one season of betting!

====

So from today onwards, I'll try keep tabs on running P/L as well.

Yesterday's parlay worked out well, and today, we'll take a look at the UEFA Nations League again. Yesterday's big game ended up still looking very much like the non-competitive friendlies that this competition was trying to improve on, but for some of the smaller nations, it's a big chance to fight for a place in EURO 2020 which they otherwise almost never get a sniff at.

Another 2-game parlay:
Game 1 is Italy vs Poland, the Azzurri will want to make some sort of impression after swallowing months of pride watching the last tourney so a ML on them @1.61 is good value to me. Closest competitor odds: 1.599
Odds advantage: +0.69%, units advantage: +1.1

Game 2 will be Romania vs Montenegro. This is the risk, even though there's a clear favourite, as it could end up being a bore draw. Nevertheless, good odds for me @1.72. Closest competitor odds: 1.714
Odds advantage: +0.35%, units advantage: +0.6

Parlay for 100 units (1 unit = 1,000 satoshi) @2.7762. Competitor parlay @2.7407
Total Odds advantage: +1.29%
Total Units advantage: +3.6

hmm well to be honest I don't think this is a tips thread but sure it can qualify if it has a lot of units won , at the end we are all tipsters and what matters is making profit over a large sample 

the point of this thread as I understood is just to let people know about the great odds of bitcoinrush and how they are leaving money on the table while betting with other sites 

buwaytress my old friend, nice to see you start your own thread as a tipster. I’ll follow your picks for sure. You should keep a winning % somewhere in the OP so people can trust you, if you do well then you can start charging people for weekly or daily picks etc.

Joca97 has been doing it for years.

Best of luck any way, I know you’ll do well

Thank you for that, and of course, you're right, some people just want to bet big and there are places that cater to high rollers.

I'd love to compare on big bets too but it's really seldom that I place anything greater than 0.01 BTC (Liverpool in big games typically!) so I've never faced these limits.

I highly doubt the mainstream gambler (whose camp I firmly belong to!) will ever regularly want to place a bet higher than that allowed. Bitcoin gambling already typically offers among the highest limits (when compared to fiat).

In that sense, I'd say BCR caters to the mainstream. I must confess, I don't know how they compare to other bookies when it comes to limits. Let's see if sports whales can feed us some insight.

To offer a different perspective, sometimes a higher maximum bet could be more attractive than odds. It is true that higher winnings can potentially be achieved by higher betting odds. On the other side of the equation, the same may be achieved with greater max bets via greater risk / greater reward.

Some books limit betting to 0.1 BTC or lower(on certain games). Those low limits are sometimes on games people wish they could lay 0.5 BTC or more, where books will limit betting 0.03 or a relatively low sum.

I'm not certain if I'm a professional gambler. There is a chance I might qualify. Although I could see myself quitting in the near future if books limit me, etc.

Thank you for your comments, SyGambler, it means a lot coming from a recognised sports bettor like yourself. I'm generally a loyal consumer when it comes to internet... I stuck to Netscape for a long time, then Firefox even when they got considerably slower and less user friendly, but when it comes to gambling, I switch as soon as I find something better. And nothing speaks to me louder than odds!

Lost yesterday's tennis match (damn you Cilic) but today I thought I'd use a parlay to demonstrate how even tiny odd advantages can really add up. Two football internationals on my parlay, one from the new EUFA Nations League and one from the SAFF championships. On their own, ML single bets aren't worth that much but for what I feel is almost certain victories, a parlay return makes sense.

Game 1 Bhutan vs Nepal, Nepal to win @1.24 - closest competitor odds: 1.239
So that's an odds advantage of +0.08% and a unit advantage of only 0.1

Game 2 Norway vs Cyprus, Norway to win @1.36 - closest competitor odds: 1.354
Odds advantage +0.44% and unit advantage of only 0.6

But on a parlay, my bookie gives me @1.693 - closest competitor: 1.677
Total odds advantage: +0.95%
Total units advantage: +1.6

Running units advantage after 2 bets: +4.3