I had created a similar tool for my own purposes and it my code correctly determines the order since it seems to match with the payout queue from the new raw .txt file. It does draw lines every 50 BTC to give me a sense of how far out my payment is likely to be:
http://twistymaze.net/eligius/ http://eligius.st/~twmz/But don't count on this estimate being accurate. There are several fundamental flaws with my web page...
One problem is that it's looking at a snapshot of balances as of right now. If you look at it now and a block is not found for 2 hours, the order will probably not be the same when the block is found because a) people are still mining and so the people in the first block will earn more BTC and push out the last few people from the first block into the second block and b) people who aren't above the threshold for payout may get over the threshold and suddenly qualify for payout and when they get added to the queue, they'll push everyone below them down the list furthur and possibly in a different block.
Another problem is that it is not accurately splitting large balances between blocks. For example, if someone has an unpaid balance of 20 BTC and is near enough the top of the queue to get included at the end of the first block, they may only get paid say 15 BTC (because there isn't enough of the generated 50 BTC to pay them in full). The web page will list their remaining 5 BTC at the top of the next block. In reality, that's probably not what will happen because that remaining 5 BTC is probably not old enough to qualify to be at the top of the queue. You can see this happening several times in the web page where the last address of a block is the same as the first address of the next block. Those are all likely wrong (the address won't usually be the first address of the next block anymore once the first payment is made).
So, this is a pretty good estimate of who will get paid in the next block if it is found right after you look at it (but you can already see that at
http://eligius.st/~luke-jr/raw/5/current_block.json). On the other hand, my page is not a perfect estimate of exactly who will be paid 4 blocks from now--certainly not the amounts since by the time we find 4 blocks, everyone's balances will be higher.
Knowing those flaws, I still use it myself and find it useful to know if I going to be paid "soon" or "not soon". If it shows I am not due to get paid for 5 blocks, I at least know that I am not getting paid in the next 1-2 blocks. I find it valuable that it removes some of the unknown even though it isn't perfectly precise. Your mileage may vary.